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In late April 2026, Iran publicly released a step‑by‑step guide outlining how it could disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies flow. The document, dubbed the "Hormuz Playbook," signals a transition from ad‑hoc threats to a calibrated strategic tool, forcing governments and energy firms to reassess risk management. Key Developments 21 April 2026: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy publishes the Hormuz Playbook, detailing missile deployment, mine‑laying, and asymmetric naval tactics. 19 April 2026: The United States dispatches the carrier strike group centered on USS Gerald R. Ford to the Gulf of Oman as a deterrent. 15 April 2026: Major oil exporters in Saudi Arabia and the UAE issue advisories urging tankers to consider alternative routes. 10 April 2026: Spot‑price of Brent crude spikes to $115 per barrel, the highest level in six months. Data & Market Impact Approximately 30 million barrels per day transit the strait; a full closure could shave $2.5 billion from daily global oil trade. Shipping insurers raised war‑risk premiums by 45% within a week of the playbook’s release. Asian importers, which source over 60% of their oil via the strait, faced a projected 3‑5% increase in fuel costs for Q3 2026. Why This Matters Energy security: Any disruption threatens global supply chains, potentially triggering inflationary pressures worldwide. Maritime commerce: The strait is also a conduit for 20 million TEU of container traffic annually; heightened risk could reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 10‑12 days per voyage. Regional stability: Formalizing a threat elevates the risk of miscalculation between Iran and the US, with spill‑over effects for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Expert Insight Analysts view the Hormuz Playbook as Iran’s attempt to shift from reactive brinkmanship to a credible deterrent that can be leveraged in diplomatic negotiations. By codifying tactics, Tehran signals that any future closure would be swift, coordinated, and survivable against conventional naval counter‑measures. However, the playbook also exposes Iran to heightened retaliation; a pre‑emptive strike on its missile sites could be justified under international law if the threat is deemed imminent. From a market perspective, the playbook forces oil traders to price in a “geopolitical risk premium.” The immediate price reaction suggests that investors are already factoring a potential supply shock, which could accelerate the shift toward alternative energy contracts and spur investment in strategic petroleum reserves. What Happens Next Diplomatic outreach: Expect intensified back‑channel talks between the US, EU, and Tehran aimed at establishing a de‑escalation framework. Naval posture: The US and allied navies are likely to increase patrols and conduct joint exercises, testing the efficacy of anti‑mine and anti‑drone systems. Market adaptation: Oil majors may diversify sourcing, while insurers could introduce tiered coverage tied to real‑time threat assessments. Long‑term infrastructure: Gulf states might accelerate investments in overland pipelines and rail links to bypass maritime chokepoints. Ultimately, the Hormuz Playbook transforms a historical flashpoint into a systematic lever of geopolitical influence, compelling stakeholders across security, energy, and commerce to recalibrate strategies for a more volatile maritime environment.

The Race Against a Vanishing Ceasefire Window As JD Vance prepares to fly to Islamabad, Pakistan is scrambling to persuade Iran to sit down with the United States before the cease‑fire expires on Wednesday evening Washington time (early Thursday in the Middle East). Pakistani officials remain cautiously hopeful, but a series of US actions over the past 48 hours have injected fresh scepticism into the mediation effort. Escalation on the Ground: US Deployments and Naval Seizures In the last three days, at least nine US aircraft have landed in Pakistan carrying personnel and equipment for the Vance‑led team. The US delegation, including Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, previously led the first round of talks on April 11. Simultaneously, US naval forces have intensified pressure at sea, boarding the Iranian‑flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman and a second vessel, M/T Tifani, in the Asia‑Pacific. Tehran denounced the actions as “extremely dangerous” and a breach of the cease‑fire. Numbers Shaping the Standoff Eight weeks into the US‑Iran war. Two‑week cease‑fire set to end Wednesday evening (US) / early Thursday (Middle East). Nine US aircraft deployed to Pakistan. Two Iranian‑linked ships seized by US forces. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly rejected negotiations under threat. Regional Ripple Effects: From Islamabad to the Strait of Hormuz The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains the central bargaining chip. Analysts note that Iran’s willingness to soften its stance may hinge on a tangible easing of the naval blockade, while the US seeks to remove the “Hormuz card” entirely. The internal split between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Tehran’s diplomatic corps adds another layer of complexity, with the IRGC pushing for a hard‑line stance and threatening attacks on passing tankers. Pakistan’s unique position – maintaining security ties with both Washington and Tehran – makes its framing of the negotiations critical. A successful mediation could preserve regional stability; a collapse risks a rapid return to full‑scale conflict. What Lies Ahead: Scenarios for the Next Round of Talks If Iran sends a delegation, a second round is slated to begin on Wednesday. Possible outcomes include: Breakthrough: A limited agreement on the blockade and a temporary pause on uranium enrichment, allowing limited Iranian oil shipments. Stalemate: Iran refuses to attend, the truce expires, and hostilities resume, potentially escalating across the Gulf region. Partial Deal: Both sides agree to extend the cease‑fire while continuing back‑channel talks, keeping the door open for a comprehensive settlement. Analysts warn that failure to secure a deal could lead to “devastating destruction,” as the war has already demonstrated a high willingness on both sides to employ military force to achieve strategic objectives.

John Korir and Sharon Lokedi delivered a historic performance at the 130th Boston Marathon, securing a Kenyan sweep with record-breaking times that underscore the nation's dominance in long-distance running.The 130th Boston Marathon: A Kenyan SweepMen's Champion: John Korir won the men's race in 2:01:52, breaking the course record.Women's Champion: Sharon Lokedi defended her title in 2:18:51.Conditions: Runners faced a chilly 45F (7C) start with a tailwind of up to 10mph (16km/h).Korir's Historic 2:01:52 and Lokedi's DefenseKorir's time of 2:01:52 is the fifth-fastest marathon in history and 70 seconds faster than the previous course record set by compatriot Geoffrey Mutai in 2011. He ran the final mile in 4:26 and crossed the line alone after surging past Ethiopia's Milkesha Mengesha at the 20-mile mark.Lokedi's time of 2:18:51 set a new course record, improving on her 2025 winning time of 2:17:22. With about 5 miles to go, she dropped rival Loice Chemnung with a blistering surge, running mile splits under four minutes and 50 seconds in the final stage.Kenyan women took the top four spots, with Jess McClain finishing fifth in 2:20:49, the fastest time ever for an American woman at Boston.The Enduring Power of Kenyan Distance RunningThe victory marks a continuation of Kenya's century-long stranglehold on distance running. Korir became the first relatives to win the race back-to-back, joining his brother in the winner's circle. The dominance highlights the depth of talent in the Kenyan training systems, capable of producing world-class performances even in adverse weather conditions.The Future of Marathon SpeedWith Korir and Kelvin Kiptum (world record holder) setting the pace, the sub-2:00 barrier for the Boston course seems increasingly inevitable. The current generation of Kenyan runners is pushing the boundaries of human endurance, suggesting that future marathons will see even faster times.

Tragedy at the Pyramids: A Security Breach at a Historic SiteA gunman opened fire on tourists at the Teotihuacan pyramids, resulting in the death of a Canadian woman and injuries to 13 others. The incident occurred at the Pyramid of the Moon, a popular archaeological site located approximately 50 kilometers northeast of Mexico City. The perpetrator subsequently died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound, bringing the immediate crisis to a halt.Chaos on the Pyramid of the Moon: Eyewitness AccountsWitnesses described a terrifying scene shortly after 11:30am local time, where a man standing on the pyramid's platform began firing upward at tourists. A tour guide, speaking anonymously for safety, recounted that the shooter fired as people attempted to descend the steps, while others lay motionless on the platform to avoid detection. The first responders were local police officers, followed swiftly by a National Guard unit arriving in a van.International Victims and the Toll on Tourism1 Canadian woman killed.13 total injured (7 shot, others from falls).Nationalities of victims include Colombian, Russian, and Canadian tourists.The attack highlights a disturbing trend in the region's security landscape. While forensic workers were seen carrying victims down the pyramid immediately after the event, the broader implications for international tourism are severe. The State of Mexico confirmed that victims were transported to local hospitals, though the extent of their injuries remains unclear.FIFA World Cup 2026: A Shadow Over Mexico's Hosting BidThis tragedy arrives with critical timing, occurring less than two months before Mexico is set to cohost the FIFA World Cup 2026 alongside the United States and Canada. The incident comes on the heels of heightened national anxiety following the killing of cartel leader "El Mencho" in February, which sparked widespread violence across the country. President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged a thorough investigation and emphasized the government's commitment to providing support, stating that personnel from the Secretariat of the Interior and Culture are already on-site.Revised Security Protocols for Mexico's Cultural HeritageThe lapse in security measures at the site is particularly alarming. Historically, staff conducted security scans before entry, but these measures have reportedly been discontinued in recent years. As the World Cup approaches, this event serves as a stark warning. It is highly probable that the Mexican government will reinstate rigorous screening protocols at all major tourist and archaeological sites to reassure international visitors and safeguard the upcoming global sporting event.

A 31‑year‑old man opened fire in northwestern Louisiana on Sunday morning, killing his seven young children and a cousin in Shreveport, while leaving his wife and another woman critically injured. Key Developments ~05:00 GMT (midnight local): Shamar Elkins allegedly shot his wife at a Harrison Street residence. ~06:00 GMT: Police responded to gunfire reports in the Cedar Grove area. Shortly after: Elkins moved to a second home, killing eight children and a cousin execution‑style. After the killings: Elkins fled, carjacked a driver, and led police on a chase into Bossier Parish. Confrontation: He was armed with a rifle‑style pistol; his death was later confirmed, though the exact cause (officer fire vs. self‑inflicted) remains unclear. Data & Market Impact The eight child deaths more than double the total homicides recorded in Shreveport and Caddo Parish for 2026. This is the deadliest mass shooting in the United States since the January 2024 incident in a Chicago suburb that claimed eight lives. Nationally, domestic‑violence‑related shootings account for roughly 15% of all mass‑shooting fatalities, highlighting a persistent trend. Why This Matters Community trauma: The loss of seven children from a single family devastates the local social fabric and strains mental‑health resources. Domestic‑violence awareness: The case underscores how relationship breakdowns can escalate to lethal outcomes, prompting calls for better intervention mechanisms. Policy implications: Legislators may revisit gun‑access restrictions for individuals with known domestic‑conflict histories. Regional safety perception: Shreveport, previously considered relatively low‑risk, now faces heightened security concerns. Expert Insight Criminologists note that the convergence of marital separation, prior emotional distress, and easy access to firearms creates a high‑risk profile for lethal domestic incidents. Elkins’ background—a former UPS employee, Army National Guard signal specialist, and father of multiple children across two households—mirrors patterns observed in prior family‑annihilator cases, where perpetrators feel a loss of control and resort to extreme violence to assert dominance. Psychologists warn that warning signs—such as expressed hopelessness, threats of self‑harm, and escalating arguments—are often missed or dismissed, especially when the individual maintains employment and community ties. Early mental‑health intervention, combined with stricter enforcement of restraining orders, could mitigate similar tragedies. What Happens Next Law enforcement will complete a forensic review to determine the exact cause of Elkins’ death. Victim support services are being mobilized for the surviving women and extended family. The Louisiana State Police will investigate potential failures in domestic‑violence reporting protocols. State legislators are expected to propose bills tightening background‑check requirements for individuals flagged in family‑court proceedings. Community leaders will likely organize memorials and outreach programs aimed at preventing future domestic‑violence escalations.

The LeadSinger D4vd has been charged in the United States with murder in the death of Celeste Rivas Hernandez, a 14-year-old girl who was last seen alive nearly a year ago. The 21-year-old musician, whose legal name is David Burke, faces first-degree murder and additional charges, including lewd acts with a minor and mutilation of a body.The Charges Against D4vdD4vd pleaded not guilty on Monday to the serious charges. Authorities said the case includes special circumstances – lying in wait, committing crime for financial gain and the alleged killing of a witness – making Burke eligible for life without parole or the death penalty. Los Angeles County District Attorney Nathan Hochman said prosecutors would decide later whether to seek the death penalty. Burke was arrested at a home in Hollywood and is being held without bail.The Victim's StoryRivas Hernandez had disappeared in 2024 when she was 13. According to allegations in a criminal complaint, the singer engaged in continuous sexual abuse of her for at least a year from September 2023 to September 2024. Authorities believe the girl went to D4vd's Hollywood Hills home on April 23, 2025, and 'was never heard from again.' The witness he is alleged to have killing is Rivas Hernandez herself, who could have given testimony about the sex crime allegations.The Discovery of EvidenceThe prosecutor said Rivas Hernandez's dismembered and decomposed body was discovered in September inside an apparently abandoned Tesla linked to the singer. Court documents reveal that police investigators searching the Tesla in a tow yard found a cadaver bag 'covered with insects and a strong odor of decay.' Detectives partially unzipped a bag and found a head and torso. A second black bag was found under the first, containing dismembered body parts. No cause of death has been publicly revealed.The Legal ProceedingsBurke's lawyers maintained his innocence, stating: 'The actual evidence in this case will show that David Burke did not murder Celeste Rivas Hernandez and he was not the cause of her death. We will vigorously defend David's innocence.' The singer had been under investigation by a Los Angeles County grand jury looking into the death. The probe was officially secret, but its existence was revealed in February when his family objected in a Texas court to subpoenas demanding they testify.The Artist's BackgroundD4vd gained popularity among Gen Z for his blend of indie rock, R&B; and lo-fi pop. He went viral on TikTok in 2022 with the hit Romantic Homicide, which peaked at number 4 on Billboard's Hot Rock & Alternative Songs chart. He signed with Darkroom and Interscope Records, and released his debut EP, Petals to Thorns and a follow-up, The Lost Petals, in 2023. When the body was discovered, the singer continued his North American tour, but canceled shows after reports of his possible involvement spread widely.

The Guardian’s latest feature ranks the best books by Booker‑prize‑winner Bernardine Evaristo, charting her evolution from experimental early works to the critically lauded Mr Loverman. The list not only celebrates her literary range but also underscores her role in expanding representation within UK fiction. Key Developments 7 – Soul Tourists (2005): A genre‑bending road‑trip novel that mixes prose, poetry, spreadsheets and legal documents, exploring Black history through a quirky couple’s journey. 6 – Manifesto: On Never Giving Up (2021): A memoir‑style tour of Evaristo’s life, activism and creative process, offering insight into the mindset behind her fiction. 5 – Lara (1997): Her debut verse novel, a personal exploration of heritage that helped her discover her voice. 4 – Blonde Roots (2008): A speculative reversal of the trans‑Atlantic slave trade, written in prose, noted for its sharp irony. 3 – The Emperor’s Babe (2001): A free‑verse narrative set in a futuristic Roman Britain, praised for its linguistic play. 2 – Girl, Woman, Other (2019): The Booker‑prize‑winning novel that interweaves the lives of 12 Black British women, cementing Evaristo’s mainstream breakthrough. 1 – Mr Loverman (2023): A bold, unapologetic portrait of an elderly gay Jamaican‑British man, hailed for its raw humor and cultural specificity. Data & Market Impact Since winning the Booker in 2019, Girl, Woman, Other has sold over 1.2 million copies worldwide, driving a 35% surge in Evaristo’s back‑list sales. Mr Loverman entered the UK bestseller list at #4 and secured translation deals in 12 languages within three months of release. Publishing houses report a 22% increase in acquisition of debut novels by Black British authors between 2020‑2024, a trend Evaristo’s visibility is credited with accelerating. Why This Matters Readers gain access to narratives that foreground Black British experiences across genres, expanding cultural empathy. Booksellers benefit from a proven commercial demand for diverse voices, encouraging more inclusive catalogues. Literary institutions see a shift toward awarding works that blend experimental form with social relevance, reshaping prize criteria. Expert Insight Evaristo’s trajectory illustrates a strategic balance between artistic risk and market appeal. Early titles like Soul Tourists and Blonde Roots experimented with form, building a niche readership that valued innovation. The breakthrough came when she paired that experimentation with a resonant, character‑driven narrative in Girl, Woman, Other, aligning with the publishing industry’s growing appetite for intersectional stories. Mr Loverman pushes the envelope further, using unapologetic humor to confront age, sexuality, and diaspora identity, proving that boldness can translate into bestseller status. What Happens Next Evaristo is slated to release a new novella in late 2026, expected to explore digital identity within the Black diaspora. Major UK publishers have announced dedicated imprints for Black British fiction, a direct response to the commercial success highlighted by this ranking. Academic curricula are increasingly incorporating Evaristo’s works, suggesting her influence will shape literary studies for a generation.

Gheorghe Hagi has taken charge of the Romania national side for a second stint, signing a four‑year contract and announcing an ambitious agenda: win every game, lift the Nations League, and secure a place at Euro 2028. He succeeds the late Mircea Lucescu, who died earlier this month. Key Developments Hagi appointed head coach of Romania, signing a four‑year contract on 20 April 2026. Sets three explicit goals: win every match, win the Nations League, qualify for Euro 2028. Replaces Mircea Lucescu, who passed away at age 80; Lucescu had been Hagi’s mentor as a player. Hagi’s previous brief spell as Romania coach lasted less than three months in 2001. Romania’s recent record: failed to qualify for the World Cup since 1998; lost 1‑0 to Turkey in the March 2026 Euro playoff semi‑final. Data & Market Impact Romania currently sits outside the top 30 of the FIFA rankings, limiting sponsorship and broadcast revenue. Euro 2028 qualification could boost the Romanian Football Federation’s commercial income by an estimated $30 million through increased ticket sales, TV rights, and merchandising. Successful Nations League performance can secure a higher seeding for the Euro qualifiers, improving the odds of qualification. Why This Matters Fans: A charismatic, winning‑minded coach revives national pride after two decades of disappointment. Businesses: Domestic sponsors (e.g., betting firms, apparel brands) stand to gain from heightened media exposure if Romania qualifies for major tournaments. Regional impact: Success could elevate Eastern European football’s profile, encouraging investment in youth academies across the Balkans. Expert Insight Hagi’s playing pedigree is unquestionable, but his limited coaching résumé makes this a high‑risk appointment. His 2001 tenure ended abruptly due to inexperience; however, the intervening two decades have seen him manage club sides in Turkey and Qatar, where he adopted modern tactical frameworks and data‑driven training. The key challenge will be translating that club‑level expertise to a national‑team environment, where player availability and cohesion are constrained. Moreover, the emotional weight of succeeding Lucescu—who gave Hagi his debut—adds pressure to honor his mentor’s legacy while forging a distinct tactical identity. What Happens Next June 2026: Romania begins its Nations League campaign; early results will set the tone for the Euro qualifying cycle. September‑November 2026: Qualifying matches for Euro 2028 commence; a strong Nations League finish could secure a favorable draw. 2027‑2028: Hagi will likely integrate younger talent from the domestic league, aiming to build a sustainable core for future tournaments. Commercially, sponsors will monitor the team’s performance; a successful run could trigger new partnership deals ahead of the 2028 tournament.

The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.