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The Lead A strike by London Underground drivers will severely disrupt transport in the capital over the next four days, with the RMT union confirming action will proceed despite no last-minute talks planned. Strike Impact on London Transport Network Just under half of London's tube drivers are in the RMT union and expected to join the strike, with a slight majority – members of Aslef – still working as normal. The RMT has called the action in two 24-hour tranches from midday on Tuesday and Thursday for maximum impact over four days. On Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, services will be significantly reduced and may not run later than 8pm on most lines. On Wednesday and Friday morning the first trains are not expected to begin running until 7.30am, and services are likely to be worse than usual in the afternoon. Some lines, where the RMT is heavily represented, will probably not run at all during the strike periods: the Piccadilly, Waterloo & City and Circle lines are expected to have no service. Parts of the Metropolitan line, between Baker Street and Aldgate, and the Central line, between White City and Liverpool Street, will also have no trains. Alternative Transportation Options The London Overground, national rail services, the Elizabeth line, the DLR and trams will be running as usual but are likely to be extremely busy. London buses should be running as normal but are likely to be very crowded, and are liable to be disrupted and delayed by the added numbers of passengers boarding and by congested roads if people turn to private cars. TfL advises that people may find it easier to walk or cycle on some journeys. During the last tube strike, which took place in September 2025, the number of cycle and e-bike hires rose significantly. At least the weather promises to be fine. The Dispute Over Working Hours This dispute centers around working hours. The RMT went on strike last year to press for a 32-hour working week, which TfL said was unaffordable. Now drivers are being offered a four-day week, which the Aslef drivers' union supports but the RMT opposes. TfL says its proposals would bring London Underground in line with the working patterns of other train operating companies, improving reliability and flexibility at no additional cost. It said the changes would be voluntary, there would be no reduction in contractual hours and those who wish to continue a five-day working week pattern would be able to do so. The RMT general secretary, Eddie Dempsey, said TfL was making no concessions, adding: "The approach of TfL is not one which leads to industrial peace and will infuriate our members who want to see a negotiated settlement to this avoidable dispute." Aslef says it is surprised that the RMT is taking action. It views the voluntary four-day week as a winner: giving tube drivers who wish to do it an extra 35 days off every year, in return for minor changes to working conditions and using electronic, rather than paper-based, systems. Future Strike Possibilities The first set of planned strikes in this particular dispute, in March, was called off by the RMT to allow talks to go ahead. But that pause was announced six days before action was due, and there are no signs of further negotiation now, with the RMT at the weekend accusing TfL of "reneging on promises" and making strikes inevitable. If there is no resolution, further strikes over the same four-day pattern are scheduled by the RMT in May and June.

Falling Fertility in the United StatesThe latest CBO projections show the total fertility rate (TFR) could fall to 1.57 in 2025, compared with the 1.62 forecast made in January 2025. The replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman means the U.S. is 0.53 children short per woman, a shortfall of roughly 25% relative to the level needed to keep the population stable.2000: 24 seniors (65+) per 100 working‑age adults.Mid‑century projection: 43 seniors per 100 working‑age adults.Fiscal Strain from an Aging PopulationAge‑related entitlement spending is projected to rise from 6% of GDP at the turn of the century to 12.7% by 2055. The fiscal deficit (excluding interest) is expected to reach about 2% of GDP in the 2040s, while debt‑to‑GDP ratios climb as the tax base narrows.Economists at the Fed and the Aspen Economic Strategy Group estimate that if the elderly‑to‑working‑age ratio were stabilized in 2025, the federal budget could swing into surplus, underscoring the direct link between demographics and fiscal health.Global Fertility Decline and Debt OutlookTwo‑thirds of the world’s population now live in countries with sub‑replacement fertility. Global public debt is projected to hit 94% of world GDP in 2025 and reach 100% by 2029, accelerating the fiscal challenges faced by aging societies.China: IMF expects aging to shave nearly 2 percentage points from annual GDP growth (2024‑2050) and raise pension spending by ~10% of GDP.OECD: Age‑related pension and health costs projected to rise 3% of GDP.Policy Proposals and Their LimitsRecent proposals—from a $1,000 child‑birth credit under the Trump administration to a National Medal of Motherhood—aim to boost birth rates, but demographic shifts unfold over decades. Even generous childcare subsidies have historically failed to raise fertility consistently.Can AI Offset the Demographic Gap?Some argue that a breakthrough in AI‑driven productivity could generate enough growth to fund pensions and healthcare without a larger workforce. However, this hinges on tech oligarchs sharing gains, a scenario that faces political resistance.Without such a productivity surge, the United States may confront a tightening social contract: an older population demanding services funded by a shrinking pool of workers, compounded by rising public debt.

Venice, a city renowned for its rich history and cultural heritage, is facing an unprecedented threat from rising sea levels. The Mose flood defence system, which was launched in 2020, has saved the city from potential flooding 154 times. However, despite its success, the city authorities are already seeking a plan B due to the accelerating sea level rise.The Mose system, which stands for modulo sperimentale elettromeccanico (experimental electromechanic module), was designed to protect Venice from frequent acque alte (high waters) caused by storm surges. The system consists of massive, luridly coloured flood barriers sunk into the seabed at three inlets between the lagoon and the Adriatic. The barriers have been effective in preventing flooding, but their frequent use is damaging the lagoon's ecosystem.Rising sea levels due to the climate crisis mean engineers are forced to raise the flood barriers more frequently, which encourages an excess growth of algae. When the algae die, they decompose, sucking out all the oxygen in the water and killing off fish and other marine flora. The tides create a natural exchange of water and sediment between the Venice lagoon and the Adriatic, but the raised flood barriers block the flow of water, leading to a deterioration of the lagoon's ecosystem.Andrea Rinaldo, the head of the scientific committee of the newly appointed Lagoon Authority, warns that an estimated extra metre of sea level rise by the end of the century represents a 'death knell for the city'. He stresses that immediate action is necessary to prevent the city's destruction. 'You won't have a lagoon. You won't have a city. And all of this could happen in a timeframe that is comparable with the time that we had to design and build the Mose.'The city authorities are exploring alternative solutions, including redirecting Venice's economy away from its reliance on tourism, which is a major threat to the city. Rinaldo plans to put out a global call for ideas from leading thinkers across various disciplines to devise a proposal for the city's future.

In the Colombian city of Medellín, a neighbourhood called Comuna 8 has taken proactive steps to address climate change and disaster risk management. The community, with the help of organisations and experts, has developed a climate resilience plan that focuses on nature-based solutions.Róbinson Velásquez Cartagena, a community leader, designed and built a rainwater harvesting system to reduce the risk of flooding and landslides. This initiative is part of a larger plan that includes reforestation to control erosion and sedimentation on hillsides and in ravines, and establishing eco-gardens and agroforestry systems.The plan, which was formally launched in August 2023, comprises eight measures to address climate risks. These measures were developed in line with the Medellín city council's Climate Action Plan and with the involvement of several organisations, including Medellín's disaster risk management department (DAGRD) and Heriot-Watt University in the UK.The community's efforts have led to a disaster risk and climate adaptation plan for all 21 comunas in Medellín. While challenges remain in securing government support and funding for grassroots initiatives, the work in Comuna 8 serves as a model for other communities.“The plan reflects the views of the community and the organisations' proposals that we have made for years,” says Velásquez Cartagena. “We want the municipality to acknowledge it financially. We hope they put effort into implementing it, as these small actions make a real difference.”

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is poised to raise the government's windfall tax on low-carbon electricity generators to help limit household energy bills. The levy, introduced in 2022, targets excess profits made by owners of older renewable energy and nuclear plants.The chancellor is ready to hike the electricity generator levy, which currently stands at 45%, as electricity market prices soared following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The increased tax will help shield consumer energy bills in the short term while the government consults on long-term plans to reform the wholesale market.The government is also expected to consult on plans to shift older, low-carbon projects onto newer set-price contracts, providing electricity at a guaranteed price. This move aims to weaken the link between gas market prices and electricity costs, which has led to a surge in electricity market prices across Europe.Executives across the industry have been informed to expect contact from officials on Monday to outline the government's determination to protect electricity costs from the surge in gas markets. The plans have already impacted shares in energy companies, with SSE falling over 6% and Centrica closing down 5% on Friday.The proposed reforms have sparked concerns within the industry, with some viewing them as a fundamental reform of energy markets. The government is considering radical proposals, including removing gas plants from the market and holding them in strategic reserve.

Negotiations are intensifying between the Australian National Rugby League (NRL) and the UK’s Super League over a prospective takeover that could reshape the sport’s calendar and governance. The NRL’s chief executive, Andrew Abdo, told The Guardian that any acquisition would hinge on a major investment package and a decisive move to re‑introduce a winter competition, the first such change since 1996.Abdo travelled to England this week to discuss the feasibility of the deal, emphasizing that the London Broncos would be pivotal to the NRL’s vision. He warned that British clubs would need to surrender the extensive control they currently wield if they hope to benefit from the financial backing the NRL could provide.The proposed shift to a winter schedule is driven by the prospect of a global broadcast arrangement that would allow the NRL to sell television rights throughout the year. While a summer season avoids clashing with the Premier League, Abdo argued that a unified calendar could attract new fans and sponsors on an international scale.Super League clubs are reportedly losing close to £20 million annually. An infusion of NRL capital could not only cover the salary‑cap obligations for every club but also free up resources for further investment in facilities, talent development and marketing.Governance would also undergo a overhaul. The NRL operates under an independent commission, whereas Super League’s club owners currently dominate decision‑making. Abdo stressed the need for an independent governing body to make “tough calls” and separate day‑to‑day club interests from the sport’s strategic direction.London’s role is another cornerstone of the plan. Abdo highlighted the city’s diverse population and commercial potential, suggesting that a strong London franchise could boost fan acquisition, sponsorship deals, and overall league visibility.With the existing Sky Sports broadcast contract set to expire at the end of the season, timing is critical. The NRL aims to align its own TV‑rights expansion with a possible partnership, viewing broadcasting as the key lever for global growth.While no formal offer has been lodged, Abdo indicated that the NRL will present its findings to its board and Australian clubs before any official proposal is made. The next few weeks will be decisive for both leagues as they weigh the benefits of a combined, year‑round rugby league ecosystem.

Workers at Starbucks' historic first store in Seattle's Pike Place Market are pushing to unionize as the coffee giant and its union appear to be at a standstill over their first contract. The store, which opened in 1971, serves as a major tourist attraction in Seattle.The employees, who have been handling significant tourist traffic, say they face greater customer service responsibilities and issues with disruptive customers and safety concerns. One worker, Nailah Diaz, described experiencing unfair treatment, favoritism, and discrimination with little support from management.The Starbucks workers at Pike Place announced their union election filing earlier this month, joining over 600 Starbucks stores that have won union elections in the US since 2021. However, the fight for a first union contract remains ongoing, with Starbucks Workers United recently filing an unfair labor practice charge against the company.The union is seeking better working conditions and citing Starbucks's record of union busting, including allegations of shutting down unionized stores and disciplining workers for union activities. A Starbucks spokesperson said the company has been engaging in good faith and offering comprehensive proposals that build on its competitive pay and industry-leading benefits.Despite this, workers say they are united in their cause and hopeful for a better workplace. The average time it takes for a union to reach a first contract is about 465 days, but Starbucks workers have been fighting for over four years.

US tech firms, including Microsoft, have successfully influenced the EU to conceal the environmental impact of their datacentres, an investigation has revealed. The EU's proposal to create a database of green metrics for datacentres was amended to include a secrecy provision, almost verbatim from industry lobbying efforts in 2024. This confidentiality clause, included in EU rules, restricts public access to individual datacentre emissions data, leaving only national-level summaries of energy footprints. Researchers and legal scholars warn that this blanket confidentiality may violate EU transparency rules and the Aarhus convention on public access to environmental information. The rise of AI chatbots has led to a surge in datacentre construction, increasing demand for power, partly met by burning fossil gas. The EU aims to triple its datacentre capacity in the next five to seven years to become a global leader in artificial intelligence. Industry groups, including DigitalEurope and Video Games Europe, lobbied for the change, citing commercial interests. Microsoft stated it supports greater transparency while protecting confidential business information. Legal experts argue that the confidentiality clause contravenes EU transparency rules and the Aarhus convention. The EU is obliged to ensure systematic availability of environmental information to the public under the convention.

The U.S. House of Representatives voted to prolong Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for an estimated 350,000 Haitian nationals residing in the United States, marking a clear departure from President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. In a tightly contested vote, the measure passed 224 to 204, with ten Republicans breaking ranks to join the Democratic majority. The legislation would keep TPS in place for an additional three years, citing the persistent violence and political instability that continue to plague Haiti. Following House approval, the bill proceeds to the Senate, where its fate remains uncertain. Should it clear that chamber, Trump has signaled he would veto the extension, setting up a direct showdown between the executive branch and a bipartisan Congress. Democratic Representative Ayanna Pressley, co‑chair of the House Haiti Caucus, hailed the vote as “a monumental victory” and emphasized that the decision reflects both practical policy and humanitarian responsibility. The legislation advanced through a bipartisan discharge petition, a procedural tool that circumvents the Republican leadership’s control of the House agenda, underscoring the urgency lawmakers feel about protecting Haitian residents. President Trump and his administration have repeatedly sought to roll back TPS designations, arguing that prior extensions exceeded executive authority and conflicted with U.S. “national interests.” This stance is part of a broader effort to tighten immigration controls, including proposals to deport Haitian legal permanent residents alleged to have gang ties. TPS, by design, shields foreign nationals already in the U.S. from removal when their home countries face temporary crises such as natural disasters or armed conflict, while also granting limited work authorization. Haiti’s deteriorating security situation—exacerbated since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse—has seen powerful gangs dominate large swaths of Port‑au‑Prince, prompting the State Department to issue travel warnings for U.S. citizens. Advocacy groups warn that the looming threat of deportation adds severe stress to Haitian communities in the United States, urging Congress to act swiftly to prevent further trauma. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is slated to hear a case that could accelerate the administration’s push to rescind deportation protections for both Haitians and Syrians, adding another layer of legal uncertainty to the issue.