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Weekly Overview: Ceasefires Mask Intensified Israeli OperationsIsrael has signed ceasefires in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, yet Israeli forces and settlers expanded their presence in the occupied West Bank, deepened incursions in Gaza and intensified actions in East Jerusalem during the week of April 20‑27, 2026.Escalation of Israeli Military Actions Across Gaza, West Bank, and East JerusalemIn Gaza, drone and air strikes killed 40 Palestinians, including three police officers and three children.In the West Bank, settler‑linked shootings and vehicle attacks resulted in the deaths of teenagers in al‑Mughayyir, Hebron, Nablus and Deir Dibwan.In East Jerusalem, demolition of 17 homes in Silwan’s al‑Bustan neighbourhood accelerated, targeting a total of 115 homes by October.Municipal elections were held for the first time in Gaza since 2006, with a 23 % turnout in Deir el‑Balah.Casualty and Displacement Statistics for the WeekTotal Palestinian deaths in Gaza since the October 11 ceasefire: 817; injured: 2,200+.Cumulative Gaza death toll since October 7, 2023: 72,593.Movement obstacles recorded by OCHA: 925, the highest in 20 years (43 % above the two‑decade average).Displacement incidents: demolition of a school and homes in Hammamat al‑Maleh, displacing the last three households.Political Ramifications and Settlement Expansion Amidst CeasefiresThe week coincided with the formation of a Naftali Bennett‑Yair Lapid alliance that will challenge Benjamin Netanyahu in the upcoming October elections, while the alliance’s leader has ruled out Arab parties in any future coalition. Settler violence surged, with coordinated calls to “cancel Oslo with your feet” and attacks in multiple Area A and B locales, underscoring a strategic push to reshape facts on the ground before any political settlement.Outlook: Prospects for De‑escalation and Regional StabilityGiven the pattern of using ceasefires as a cover for intensified operations, humanitarian aid inflows remain insufficient despite the reopening of the Zikim crossing. Unless diplomatic pressure curtails settlement expansion and protects civilian infrastructure, the cycle of violence and displacement is likely to continue, further complicating any ceasefire‑based peace initiatives.

A powerful explosion near a tunnel on the Pan‑American Highway in southwestern Colombia has left at least 20 dead and dozens injured, marking one of the deadliest attacks in the country since the 2003 Bogotá nightclub bombing.Escalating Violence on Colombia's Pan‑American HighwayThe blast occurred in the Cauca region, a governor‑controlled area, and was confirmed by Octavio Guzmán, the regional governor. Victims included 15 women and five men, with many families from the nearby village of Cajibío mourning their loss. The attack was carried out on a civilian bus traveling near a tunnel, a location that underscores the vulnerability of critical transport corridors.Human Toll and Injuries: Numbers from the BlastConfirmed deaths: 20 (some reports suggest up to 21)Injured: 36, including three in intensive careMinor victims: 5 children reported to be out of dangerAmong the dead were dozens of women, a detail that has intensified public outrage and calls for justice.Security Stakes Ahead of May 31 Presidential ElectionPresident Gustavo Petro swiftly attributed responsibility to a “narco‑terrorist” group led by Néstor Vera (known as Ivan Mordisco), a former FARC commander now operating as a dissident. Security has become a central theme in the upcoming election, with voters expected to weigh candidates’ ability to curb armed group activity. The attack follows the recent arrest of a suspect linked to the killing of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, further highlighting the volatile security environment.Potential Trajectory of Armed Groups and Election OutcomesIf dissident factions continue to target civilian infrastructure, the government may face heightened pressure to adopt tougher security measures, potentially reshaping campaign narratives. Analysts warn that a failure to contain such violence could depress voter turnout in affected regions and influence the electoral calculus for both incumbent and opposition parties. The coming weeks will likely see intensified intelligence operations and possibly a hardening of security policies ahead of the May 31 vote.

The LeadArmed attackers killed at least 29 people in Guyaku village in Nigeria's Adamawa State in a multi-hour attack that also destroyed property, with ISIL (ISIS) claiming responsibility for the violence.The Attack in Guyaku VillageThe attack in Guyaku village lasted several hours, leaving a trail of destruction and casualties. Nigerian state Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri visited the bereaved community, expressing his condolences and vowing that "this act of cowardice is an affront to our humanity and will not go unpunished."Security Response and VigilanceFintiri announced his administration would continue to support "military and vigilante groups" as it intensified security operations in response to the attack. This comes amid broader security concerns in Nigeria's northeastern regions where armed groups have established strongholds.Parallel Orphanage AbductionThe Guyaku attack occurred on the same day that armed attackers raided an orphanage in north-central Nigeria, abducting 23 children. Fifteen were later rescued, with the government confirming "intensive operations" were underway to secure the safe return of the remaining eight victims.Regional Violence PatternsNigeria's northeastern regions have faced persistent violence from armed groups, including Boko Haram and ISIL-affiliated factions. The country has seen an increase in kidnappings for ransom, particularly in vulnerable communities. ACLED data indicates that between January and November 2025, there were 1,923 attacks on civilians across Nigeria.International InvolvementUS President Donald Trump and other conservative voices have accused Nigerian authorities of failing to protect the nation's Christians from violence, though the Nigerian government emphasizes that people of all faiths have been targeted. US forces launched air strikes on ISIL-affiliated fighters in December 2025 and deployed 100 soldiers to northern Nigeria in February 2026 to train and advise local forces.Religious Targeting DebateWhile some international figures have characterized the violence as targeting Christians specifically, data from ACLED shows that only 50 out of 1,923 attacks on civilians between January and November 2025 were specifically targeting Christians because of their religion. The Nigerian government maintains that the violence affects all communities regardless of faith.Future Security OutlookWith both local and international forces engaged in counter-terrorism operations, Nigeria faces the ongoing challenge of securing its northeastern regions. The recent attacks highlight the persistent threat posed by armed groups and the need for comprehensive security strategies that address both immediate threats and long-term stability in the region.

The Strategic Shift in Sahel SecurityIn a disturbing escalation of the long-standing conflict in the Sahel, Mali has witnessed a surge of coordinated attacks in April 2026. This latest wave of violence is not merely a series of isolated incidents but a calculated operation targeting both military strongholds and civilian populations. The attacks, spanning multiple regions, indicate a shift in the operational tactics of insurgent groups, moving from sporadic ambushes to synchronized assaults designed to overwhelm security forces and destabilize the government.Decoding the Coordinated AssaultsThe primary driver behind these coordinated attacks appears to be a strategic realignment by jihadist factions, specifically the Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Intelligence suggests these groups are leveraging improved logistics and external support to execute simultaneous strikes across the Mopti, Segou, and Gao regions.Targeted Infrastructure: Military bases and communication hubs are being hit to disrupt command and control.Civilian Impact: Markets and transport routes are being targeted to maximize economic disruption and fear.Tactical Evolution: The use of heavy weaponry and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has increased in sophistication.The Humanitarian and Economic CostThe financial and human toll of this coordinated offensive is mounting rapidly. While official casualty figures are still being verified, humanitarian agencies report a sharp increase in displacement rates, with over 15,000 people fleeing their homes in the affected zones in a single week. The economic impact is equally severe, as the disruption of trade routes threatens the food security of millions in the region.Implications for Regional StabilityThe timing of these attacks is critical. As Mali navigates a complex political transition and the withdrawal of foreign military advisors, these coordinated strikes expose the fragility of the current security architecture. The attacks are likely intended to test the resolve of the new military junta and the efficacy of the regional peacekeeping forces under ECOWAS.Forecasting the Sahel's FutureAnalysts predict that without a significant overhaul of counter-insurgency strategies and increased regional cooperation, Mali will face a prolonged period of instability. The coordinated nature of the attacks suggests that the conflict is moving from a localized insurgency to a broader regional proxy war, with implications for the entire West African security landscape.

The Escalation of Rhetoric and the Collapse of Diplomatic EffortsIsrael has issued a stark ultimatum to 'burn' Lebanon after Hezbollah rejected peace talks and continued its campaign of resistance, citing the broader fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Lebanon-based militant group has firmly rejected the Lebanese government's ban on military activities and the recent direct talks with Israel, framing the conflict as a choice between 'liberation and pride or occupation and humiliation.'Hezbollah's Refusal to Bow and the Conditions for DialogueHezbollah leader Naim Qassem has reiterated that the group will not return to the pre-March status quo. He outlined strict preconditions for any dialogue, including the end of Israeli aggression, withdrawal from occupied territories, the release of prisoners, and the return of displaced people. Qassem also demanded that Lebanon reverse its decision to criminalize the resistance, a move that has drawn sharp rebukes from both the Lebanese President and the Israeli Defence Minister.The Human Cost of the EscalationDespite the formal ceasefire, the violence has taken a severe toll on the civilian population. According to Lebanon's Health Ministry, Israeli attacks have resulted in 2,521 deaths and 7,804 wounded since March 2. This data underscores the devastating impact of the cross-border hostilities, which have continued even as both sides trade fire in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon.The Strain on Lebanon's Sovereignty and the Regional Proxy WarThe conflict has exposed deep fractures within Lebanon's political landscape. President Joseph Aoun has accused Hezbollah of treason, while Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has accused the government of gambling with the nation's future. This internal discord, combined with Hezbollah's resilience, has complicated international efforts to stabilize the region and threatens to drag Lebanon deeper into a regional proxy war.The Path Toward a Prolonged Low-Intensity ConflictAnalysts suggest that the current stalemate is likely to persist. Hezbollah's ability to maintain operations in southern Lebanon and its refusal to disarm suggest that a return to the pre-March status quo is impossible. The situation risks evolving into a prolonged, low-intensity conflict that could destabilize the entire Eastern Mediterranean, making a swift resolution increasingly unlikely.

The Detention Crisis in El-Fasher Thousands of people remain detained in poor conditions by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in el-Fasher in western Sudan, according to a local NGO. The Scale of Detention The Sudan Doctors Network said on Monday that 20 doctors, more than 1,470 civilians, and 907 military personnel are being held in “dire” conditions in multiple detention facilities in the city. 20 doctors detained Over 1,470 civilians detained 907 military personnel detained Conditions in Detention Centers The NGO said in a statement that the RSF is reportedly committing “severe violations” inside the detention centers in el-Fasher, “including killings during torture and interrogation, as well as ethnically motivated killings”. The group reports that 370 women and 426 children are among those held in facilities including Shalla Prison, a children’s hospital, and cargo containers. Humanitarian Crisis The detention centers have faced a cholera outbreak since early February, with poor environmental conditions, a lack of clean water, and malnutrition making the spread of diseases more rampant. The capture of the doctors, alongside a “critical” shortage of medical supplies, has debilitated the health sector, the NGO warned. The Background of the Conflict Sudan descended into conflict three years ago when a rivalry between army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo exploded into all-out war. The RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have been fighting a vicious civil war since April 2023, which has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions to create the “world’s worst humanitarian crisis”, according to the United Nations.

Uncovering the Trauma of Mozambique's Civil War Lasting from 1977 to 1992, the Mozambique civil war left deep scars on the psyche of the whole nation. In his second feature, Inadelso Cossa attempts to grapple with the psychological wreckage of this harrowing period by combing through his own family history; returning to the village where he grew up, the film-maker conducts a series of interviews with his grandmother, whose testimony is rendered unreliable by her worsening dementia. The Blurred Lines Between Reality and Memory The film wavers between real and imagined truths, a liminal state echoed by the evocative cinematography. Nocturnal sequences, in which wooden sheds, grassy fields, and even Cossa’s grandmother, are wrapped in a cloak of darkness inspire a deceptive sense of calm. In the dead of night, though, the spectres of the past linger. Voices of the Past Cossa also speaks to other historical witnesses: Macuacua and Zalina, an older couple, spend much of their screen time bickering but these domestic moments are underlined with unease. A former soldier, Macuacua was once a participant in the violence against civilians but his life now, however, is marred by poverty. In a striking scene, Macuacua holds up a tree branch shaped like a rifle and reenacts a patrol route from his youth with astonishing matter-of-factness. A New Perspective on History For Cossa, history is distilled in these kinds of gestures, moving beyond linear time. Although the film is bookended by archival footage, the director prioritises non-traditional forms of documentation, such as monologues, songs, and reenactments. While this approach embodies the slipperiness of memory, it also renders the film difficult to follow on occasion. The Film's Impact But across these streams of oral history, what we find are not merely facts and figures, but feelings, in which pain and healing entwine. Where to Watch The Nights Still Smell of Gunpowder is on True Story from 1 May.

A fresh wave of cross‑border fire has reignited hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan, threatening the fragile cease‑fire brokered in March and casting doubt on the future of peace talks mediated by China. The Accusations and New Cross‑Border Strikes Both sides have blamed each other for fresh attacks. The Taliban’s deputy spokesperson Hamdullah Fitrat said Pakistani forces launched mortar and rocket fire that hit the Sayed Jamaluddin Afghani University in Asadabad, Kunar province, wounding civilians, including students, women and children. Pakistan’s Information Ministry dismissed the claim as a “blatant lie” and denied any strike on the university. In South Waziristan, Pakistani border forces reported a serious clash that injured at least three civilians. Casualties and Immediate Figures Four people killed in Kunar province attacks. Three civilians injured in South Waziristan. 45 people wounded according to the Taliban spokesperson. Fragile Ceasefire and Regional Repercussions The March truce, agreed during the Eid al‑Fitr holiday, was the first pause after weeks of deadly exchanges that began in February when Afghan forces struck Pakistani positions along the Durand Line. The latest flare‑up undermines confidence in the cease‑fire and revives long‑standing grievances: Pakistan accuses Kabul of sheltering the Tehreek‑e‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency, while Afghanistan rebuts that Pakistan harbours hostile groups and violates Afghan sovereignty. Regional actors – Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – have previously pushed for de‑escalation, but the renewed violence risks pulling the border back into a state of “open war”. What the Next Weeks May Hold for Pakistan‑Afghanistan Relations Analysts warn that unless both capitals quickly convene a joint verification mechanism, the cease‑fire could collapse, prompting renewed air strikes and a possible escalation along the 2,640 km border. China is likely to intensify diplomatic pressure, possibly offering a renewed monitoring mission, while the United Nations may call for an emergency security council meeting. Conversely, a limited humanitarian pause could be negotiated if both sides agree to a joint investigation of the recent incidents, but the underlying mistrust over the TTP issue makes a durable peace unlikely in the short term.

From Beacon to Battleground: Mali’s Governance CollapseMali’s descent from a regional democracy model to a theater of chronic instability is accelerating. The recent coordinated attacks by JNIM and Tuareg rebels, culminating in the death of Defense Minister Sadio Camara, signal a critical failure of the Goita-led junta to maintain control. This breakdown exposes the fragility of the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of French forces and the subsequent reliance on Russian mercenaries.The Current Security Vacuum and Coordinated InsurgencyThe recent surge in violence marks a dangerous escalation in Mali's conflict. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda-linked group, has claimed responsibility for simultaneous assaults targeting the capital Bamako and key northern cities including Kati, Mopti, Sevare, and Gao. Tuareg rebels have joined these operations, creating a unified front against the government.April 2026: Coordinated attacks near Bamako airport and Kati.July 2024: Ambush of a military convoy transporting personnel to Tinzaouaten.October 2024: JNIM blockade of fuel imports crippling Bamako.The termination of the 2015 UN-brokered peace deal in January 2024 has removed the last diplomatic barrier to open conflict, leaving the military government with little room for maneuver.A Century of Governance Shifts: From Independence to JuntaThe current crisis is the culmination of a century of political volatility. The timeline reveals a recurring pattern of military intervention that has consistently undermined state stability:1960: Independence under Modibo Keita, followed by economic mismanagement and a 1968 coup led by Moussa Traore.1991: Amadou Toumani Toure leads a coup against Traore, ushering in a brief era of democracy and economic growth.2012: Amadou Haya Sanogo stages a coup, triggering the Tuareg rebellion and French intervention.2020 & 2021: Colonel Assimi Goita leads two coups, seizing power and rejecting the return to civilian rule.Geopolitical Realignment: The Rise of the Sahel AllianceThe political fallout extends beyond Mali's borders. The Goita administration has severed ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with Burkina Faso and Niger. This bloc has pivoted away from Western influence, replacing French troops with Russian mercenaries and rejecting ECOWAS sanctions.Analysts argue this realignment has created a security vacuum that armed groups are exploiting. The inability of the junta to provide security or economic stability has eroded its legitimacy, making the current coordinated insurgency a test of the regime's survival.The Unraveling of the Sahel: Future TrajectoriesThe trajectory for Mali remains bleak. With the military government unable to assert control over its territory and facing a unified insurgent front, the risk of state collapse is high. The fragmentation of the Sahel region into rival blocs suggests that Mali will likely remain a flashpoint for terrorism and instability for the foreseeable future, complicating regional security efforts.