Breaking AI & Tech News Analyzed

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. This has led to a broadening of the global energy crisis, with the economic outlook darkening across Asia, Europe, and beyond.Japan has responded by releasing 80 million barrels of oil from its national reserves, enough to last for 45 days. The country's reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil imports stands at 90 percent.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the conflict will have a significant impact on the UK economy, predicting inflation of 4 percent this year. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has stated that Iran cannot be allowed to hold the global economy hostage.The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy on Iran has led to the emergence of the TACO trade, an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. This phenomenon refers to investors betting that the US president will back down from his threats, resulting in profits for those who bought in.Observers note that Trump's inconsistent messaging has created an opportunity for investors to bet on his policy reversals. For example, Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from 48 hours to five days, and later promised to hold off from attacks on Iran's energy facilities for an additional 10 days. This type of about-face has opened the door to investors willing to bet that the US president will back down.Lena Komileva, chief economist at consultancy firm (g+)economics, notes that global markets have been less inclined to rebound after Trump's Iran-related policy reversals compared to similar shifts in response to his tariff policies. This is due to the complexity of the conflict and the unique objectives of the parties involved.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has yielded limited results in terms of destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. According to a report by Reuters, based on information from five people familiar with US intelligence, the US has only destroyed about a third of Iran's missile and drone arsenal after a month of military action. The report suggests that another third of Tehran's missiles may have been damaged or buried in underground tunnels and bunkers, leaving a sizeable stockpile still accessible to Iran. This assessment directly contradicts statements made by Donald Trump on Thursday that Tehran had "very few rockets left" and claims from other US officials that the war has eliminated Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. Iranian officials view their ballistic missile program as a crucial deterrent against the US and Israel, given the significant military superiority of these countries. Iran has effectively used ballistic missiles and drones over the last month to attack Israel and critical infrastructure in the Gulf, causing substantial damage to the global economy. The US and Israel have identified degrading Iran's ballistic missile capacity as a primary objective of the war. Washington has deployed thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in recent days, with the administration reportedly considering a ground operation on Kharg island to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has targeted ballistic missile caches and launchers in its aerial campaign against Iran, claiming to have "neutralized" 335 or 70% of Tehran's missile launchers. However, Iran has dispersed its launchers across the country to evade detection and airstrikes, making it challenging for Israel and the US to completely eliminate the threat. Despite the decline in the number of launches due to the ongoing bombing campaign, Iranian missiles have still managed to hit Israel and the Gulf, as interceptors also run out. The conflict has resulted in billions of dollars spent and critical interceptor stocks expended by Israel, the US, and Gulf states to block Iranian missile barrages. A US official noted that assessing Iran's missile stockpile accurately is difficult due to much of it being stored underground, suggesting that "I don't know if we'll ever have an accurate number". The vast tunnel network created an extra challenge in destroying Iran's missile stockpile, but the US military has vowed to continue its efforts.

The US and Israel are intensifying their military campaign against Iran, with Senator Marco Rubio stating that the operation is expected to conclude in 'weeks, not months'. The conflict escalated with a surprise strike on 28 February that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.Despite Iran's defiance and denial of negotiations, the US and Israel continue to target Iran's nuclear facilities and military sites. Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, warned that attacks against Iran will 'escalate and expand' to additional targets and areas that assist the regime in building and operating weapons against Israeli citizens.The conflict has significant economic implications, with the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil is usually shipped, being a key point of contention. The US has ordered thousands of marines and elite airborne troops to the region, possibly in preparation for a military effort to forcibly reopen the waterway.Iran has threatened to attack Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu and the Fujairah oil complex in the United Arab Emirates if a ground invasion takes place. The US president, Donald Trump, has issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding that it allow free passage of shipping through the strait by 6 April or face the destruction of its energy plants.The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with over 1,900 people killed and 20,000 injured in Iran, and 19 people killed in Israel. The humanitarian crisis in Lebanon has worsened, with a fifth of the population displaced and nearly 1,100 people killed.The G7 foreign ministers have reiterated the need for safe and toll-free freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and called for an immediate cessation of attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Donald Trump has launched a scathing attack on the UK's military capabilities, describing its aircraft carriers as 'toys' compared to those of the US. Speaking at the White House, Trump claimed that the UK had offered to send two aircraft carriers to support US military actions against Iran, but he had rejected the offer, saying 'Don't bother, we don't need it.'The comments have sparked a fresh row between Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has refused to engage directly with the US president's repeated insults. Starmer has emphasized his focus on addressing the UK's domestic priorities, including the cost of living crisis, and has reiterated his commitment to defending British interests while avoiding escalation.Tensions between the US and UK have been rising over Nato's role in the conflict with Iran. Trump has expressed disappointment with Nato allies, accusing them of not doing enough to support the US. He also criticized Starmer for not providing sufficient support, saying 'He's not exactly Winston Churchill.'In response, Starmer has reaffirmed the UK's commitment to its Nato allies while emphasizing the need to address the threat posed by Russia. During a visit to Finland, Starmer warned of a 'war on two fronts' – Ukraine and Iran – and highlighted the importance of cooperation between Nato allies to counter these threats.The UK has deployed a warship, HMS Dragon, to the eastern Mediterranean in response to an Iranian-made missile launch from Lebanon at a UK RAF base in Cyprus. Officials are also considering deploying a Royal Navy vessel to support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies and a third of global fertilisers necessary for food production.Before the conflict, an average of 138 ships a day transited the strait. However, following the escalation, 100 vessels have exited the Gulf and only 40 have entered in the past month, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.Despite over 20 reported attacks on ships in the region, including near-misses and damage to vessels, some ships are still attempting to cross, with Iran permitting 'non-hostile vessels' to use a 'safe corridor' in its territorial waters. This route allows Iranian authorities to visually verify vessels and potentially demand payment for safe passage.The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has raised concerns about the 20,000 seafarers stranded in stressful conditions with dwindling supplies. Over 30 countries have agreed to work together to safeguard the strait, with the UK offering to host an international security summit to devise a plan to reopen it.

The UK government has announced a significant intervention in the country's industrial sector, investing £100m to reopen a carbon dioxide plant on Teesside. The Ensus plant, which was mothballed in September, will restart operations for an initial three-month period, with hopes that it could then remain open indefinitely.The decision to reopen the plant comes amid concerns that the war in Iran could trigger shortages of CO2, a gas that has various uses ranging from carbonating drinks and keeping food fresh to medical procedures and the sedating of animals for slaughter. The plant's reopening is expected to bolster production of CO2 and help ensure the resilience of supply chains.The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, approved the reopening of the plant, stating that the government would 'always do what's needed to ensure resilience and protect British businesses from the worst impacts of global uncertainty.' The move is part of wider government efforts to ensure the UK maintains access to critical industrial resources during global supply shocks.The UK's food and drink industry faced a CO2 crisis in 2021, after the easing of pandemic restrictions sent the price of wholesale gas soaring, pushing up the manufacturing costs of fertiliser production, which also produces the gas as a byproduct. The crisis resulted in the government providing a temporary bailout to the American company CF Fertilisers to help restart CO2 production at its Teesside factory.The Ensus plant has had operations on Teesside since 2010, using distillation and fermentation to convert wheat into bioethanol. CO2 is a byproduct of this process, as well as high-protein animal feed. The company, which is headquartered in Middlesbrough, employs about 100 people.

US President Donald Trump has asserted that negotiations to end the war on Iran are ongoing, claiming Tehran is eager to make a deal. Speaking at the White House, Trump stated the US is talking to 'the right people' about a potential agreement, mentioning a 'very big present' related to 'oil and gas' allegedly gifted by Tehran. Trump's claims come as fighting continues, with Iran launching attacks on Israel and a strike near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, had previously dismissed Trump's claims as 'fake news.' Media reports suggest Washington has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, which includes ending Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 61% of Americans disapprove of the attacks on Iran, while 35% approve. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledged receiving messages from 'friendly countries' indicating a US request for negotiations. Negar Mortazavi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, stated Iran would seek to end the war on its 'own terms,' including establishing deterrence and economic gains. Despite Trump's diplomatic efforts, Israeli military spokesman Effie Defrin said Israel's war plan remains 'unchanged,' aiming to 'deepen the damage and remove existential threats.' The US is reportedly preparing to send thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, fueling fears of a longer conflict.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

Pakistan's military leadership has been playing a crucial role in attempting to broker negotiations between the US and Iran. The country's army chief, Asim Munir, recently had a call with US President Donald Trump to discuss the conflict. Diplomatic sources indicate that the US and Iran could meet for negotiations in Islamabad as early as this week to discuss an end to the war, which began almost a month ago. While Islamabad has yet to be officially confirmed as the venue, sources suggest that Tehran prefers Islamabad. Pakistani sources mention that US Vice-President JD Vance is being considered as a probable chief negotiator from the US side, rather than Trump's Middle East envoy Witkoff or Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Vance is viewed as a sceptic of the US decision to bomb Iran and has largely kept quiet on the conflict. After the phone call between Trump and Munir, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, spoke to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday. According to an official readout of the call, they agreed on the urgent need for de-escalation, dialogue, and diplomacy. Sources suggest that Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is likely to lead any talks from the Iranian side. However, Ghalibaf has dismissed reports of talks between the two sides as 'fake news'. An Iranian diplomatic source confirmed that talks are expected this week but expressed 'zero trust' in Washington. They stated that Iran would not accept Witkoff and Kushner as negotiators for any discussions. Negotiations between the US and Iran were ongoing when the US began its bombing campaign. The Iranian regime views these negotiations as an attempt by the Trump administration to deceive Iran into thinking it wanted a diplomatic solution while planning to attack. On Monday, Trump indicated that he would be willing to halt US strikes, claiming that 'strong talks' were being held between Iranian officials and Witkoff and Kushner. Trump told reporters that they had 'very, very strong talks' and that they had 'major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement'. The US president has given a five-day deadline to an ultimatum he gave over the weekend, threatening to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure if they did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route currently being blockaded by Iran's military. Trump's announcement of talks helped boost markets, bringing oil prices sharply down to below $100 (£75) a barrel, the lowest in days.