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The threat of bombing Iran back to the 'stone ages' by US President Donald Trump has raised concerns about the morality, legality, and utility of such a campaign. In 2006, Israel bombed Lebanon's Jiyeh power station, causing a massive oil spill and significant damage. However, this did not prevent Hezbollah from rearming and continuing to fight. Similarly, Russia's sustained bombardment of Ukraine has not forced the country to concede. History has shown that bombing campaigns, including the British 'area bombing' of Germany in World War II and the US Rolling Thunder campaign against North Vietnam, have not always achieved their desired outcomes. Experts argue that bombing Iran's infrastructure would not change the regime's strategic calculus and would likely give the Iranian government a powerful propaganda tool. The US lacks a credible military option to force Iran into submission, and pressure alone may not be enough to break Tehran. The effectiveness of bombing campaigns in achieving war objectives is highly contested. The article cites the example of the British bomber command's promise to bring about the collapse of Germany within four months, which ultimately proved unsuccessful. Trump's threat to bomb Iran's infrastructure has been met with skepticism by experts, who argue that it is unlikely to achieve its desired outcome and may instead escalate the situation.

For Konstantin, a 53‑year‑old resident of St Petersburg, the war in Ukraine has become a literal scent in the air. Over the past fortnight he has repeatedly detected the acrid odor of burning crude, fuel and chemicals drifting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s two largest Baltic oil terminals. The facilities at Ust‑Luga and Primorsk together handle about 40% of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Both ports lie within 150 km of St Petersburg, making the smoke visible – and smelt – to locals. Ukrainian drones have flown more than 1,000 km from the front lines to strike storage tanks and loading infrastructure, igniting fires that have burned for days. The smell, described by Konstantin as a mix of diesel exhaust, burning plastic and rotten eggs, first appeared in late March. These attacks are a key element of Kyiv’s strategy to erode Russia’s “unexpected windfall” from oil exports, a revenue stream that has surged as the US‑Israel campaign against Iran pushed global oil prices higher. Satellite imagery shows extensive damage at both terminals, with Ust‑Luga’s sprawling processing complex blackened by fire. As a result, both ports are currently unable to dispatch cargo, forcing traders to reroute oil to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume. Financial analysts estimate that the disruption has already cost Moscow roughly $1 billion in lost export earnings, according to Bloomberg data released on March 31. Moreover, every $10 rise in global oil prices translates into about $1.6 billion of additional monthly income for the Kremlin. Russian officials have blamed European nations for allegedly facilitating the drone overflights, but Ukrainian experts dispute this claim. Andrey Pronin, a pioneer of Ukraine’s drone warfare, emphasized that the strikes are meticulously planned to stay within Russian airspace, bypassing air‑defence systems. Since the campaign began, Ukrainian forces have targeted 13 oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic coast to the Volga region. The attacks are timed to coincide with the heightened profitability Russia enjoys from the Iran‑related oil price surge, according to researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University. Beyond the immediate economic impact, Kyiv views the strikes as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the idea of a temporary moratorium on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for concessions, though the strategy also inadvertently benefits Iran by sustaining higher oil prices. On the tactical side, Ukraine now relies heavily on FP‑1 drones produced by the domestic Firepoint company. These unmanned aircraft can carry up to 120 kg of explosives and travel roughly 1,500 km, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. For civilians living near the conflict zones, the nightly “fireworks” of explosions have become a grim routine. Abdulla, a Tatar resident of Crimea, described the constant shelling as a new normal, while analysts note that President Vladimir Putin remains resolute, using the ongoing talks with the White House as a diplomatic façade. Overall, the Ukrainian drone campaign illustrates how modern warfare increasingly intertwines kinetic attacks with strategic economic disruption, reshaping the dynamics of the Russia‑Ukraine war and its broader geopolitical reverberations.

Ukraine's military has launched a significant drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, targeting the port of Novorossiysk. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, the overnight attack hit the Admiral Makarov missile carrier in the port, which serves as Russia's largest oil exporting outlet on the Black Sea.The attack is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy exports and reduce Moscow's revenues. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, aiming to halt Russian oil exports and impact the Russian economy.Russian authorities reported that at least eight people, including two children, were injured in Novorossiysk. Videos posted on Telegram showed a fire at one of the oil port's docks. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko stated that debris from drones had fallen on two locations in the city, including a residential area.Russia's military claimed that air defense units had downed 148 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, located in the Novorossiysk port area, exports oil from Kazakhstan and has major US oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, as shareholders.The attack on Novorossiysk comes amid a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. On the previous day, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. These attacks are part of Ukraine's efforts to reduce Moscow's revenues from oil sales, which are crucial for the Russian economy.In response to the attacks, Russia's Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting the CPC terminal to inflict economic damage on its largest shareholders, including US and Kazakh energy companies.

The global oil trade is facing a chokepoint crisis, with Libya's oil disputes mirroring the situation in the Hormuz Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transportation, was briefly closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, causing Brent crude oil prices to soar to nearly $120 a barrel.Libya, with its strategically located oil terminals on the northeastern coast, has become a crucial player in the global oil trade. The country's light, sweet grades of oil are particularly valuable to European refiners. However, Libya's political instability and factional oil deals are threatening to disrupt oil supplies, with Europe's energy security hanging in the balance.The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, controls the territory where Libya's oil is located, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli signs oil contracts. This has led to a situation where Tripoli may sign oil contracts, but Haftar decides whether oil actually flows. The Arkenu agreement, a private oil company linked to the Haftar family, was recently terminated due to corruption allegations, leaving the future of Libya's oil supplies uncertain.The US is attempting to broker new talks between Tripoli and Haftar's camp, but a deal is not yet certain. Meanwhile, European energy security is at risk, with the Mediterranean Sea becoming a battleground for proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The sabotage of oil infrastructure and attacks on tankers are exacerbating the situation, highlighting the need for a stable and secure oil supply to Europe.

A Russian court on Monday handed former Kursk governor Alexei Smirnov a 14‑year prison term in a penal colony after finding him guilty of corruption that left the region’s border defenses vulnerable during Ukraine’s August 2024 offensive. According to the verdict, the 52‑year‑old official accepted bribes from construction firms tasked with building anti‑tank barriers. Investigations revealed that the barriers were erected with substandard materials incapable of stopping Ukrainian armored units, directly contributing to the rapid advance of an estimated 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers into Kursk. The court also imposed a fine of 400 million roubles (≈ $4.9 million), confiscated more than 20 million roubles (≈ $220,000) from Smirnov’s assets, and barred him from any employment for ten years. Smirnov, who had been appointed governor in May 2024 and resigned in December of the same year, pleaded guilty and was subsequently detained. He claimed that his predecessor, Roman Starovoit, encouraged the practice of accepting kickbacks. Starovoit, later appointed transport minister, was dismissed by President Vladimir Putin in July 2025 and died under circumstances ruled as suicide. The incursion marked the first time in decades that foreign troops entered Russian soil, forcing an estimated 78,000 Russian soldiers to engage the Ukrainian force and exposing systemic weaknesses in Russia’s border security. The Kremlin responded with a sweeping crackdown on regional and military officials deemed responsible for the failure. Russian forces eventually expelled the Ukrainian units from Kursk in April 2025, reportedly with assistance from several thousand North Korean troops. The episode remains a diplomatic embarrassment for President Putin, highlighting the strategic and political fallout of corruption within Russia’s regional administrations.

Article 52 of the first Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions bars attacks on civilian targets. The International Criminal Court has already issued arrest warrants for Russian officers involved in strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid, a precedent that would apply to the United States if President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran were carried out. Trump, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, has adopted a tone that resembles a “blood‑thirsty fever dream.” Hegseth framed the proposed Operation Epic Fury as a 21st‑century crusade, while Trump unleashed a profanity‑laden tirade demanding the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day… Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.” This rhetoric, emerging just before the United States’ 250th independence anniversary, undermines the credibility of the presidency and the nation’s moral standing. The editorial notes that, in a more restrained political climate, senators like Chris Murphy might explore constitutional avenues to remove Trump, but the current cabinet’s “craven complicity” makes such prospects remote. The international community now watches anxiously, fearing that a broader escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran could trigger “unknowable and spiralling consequences.” Iran has signaled it could widen its attacks across the region, and the recent closure of the Hormuz Strait demonstrates that Trump’s threats are not merely rhetorical. NATO allies have declined to endorse Trump’s approach, citing the absence of a coherent strategy and a lack of legal justification. They hope the president’s apocalyptic language masks a genuine search for a rapid de‑escalation, especially as global economic pressure mounts. Trump later claimed there was a “good chance” of a cease‑fire with Iran before his deadline, yet hours later Israel bombed a key petrochemical plant in Iran’s largest gas field, contradicting any notion of imminent peace. During a White House press briefing, Trump and Hegseth highlighted the rescue of a missing U.S. fighter crew shot down over Iran, a moment that starkly contrasted with the looming threat to thousands of lives and the stability of the global economy, now hanging on the whims of a president driven by self‑aggrandizement and an echo chamber of advisers.

Iran’s nationwide internet outage, which started on 28 February following the first US‑Israel strikes, has now stretched beyond 38 days, making it the most prolonged country‑wide shutdown since the Arab‑spring era. Authorities ordered a total cut‑off of global internet services on the day the conflict began, after a brief shutdown in January amid nationwide protests. More than five weeks without external connectivity has left most Iranians dependent on state‑run television and a single satellite channel for news. According to Amir Rashidi, director of the Iran‑focused human‑rights group Miaan, many citizens are unaware of the full scale of the war because “their only sources are Iranian state television and one satellite channel.” This limited media environment means Iranians receive information filtered through government agendas. Doug Madory, director of internet analysis at Kentik, noted that while sub‑national outages have occurred in places like Myanmar, Ukraine and Gaza, Iran’s shutdown is the longest and most severe at the national level since Libya’s six‑month blackout during the Arab Spring. Sudan’s 37‑day shutdown in 2019 is the only comparable recent case. In response, the regime has pushed users onto the National Information Network (NIN), a domestic intranet under development for 16 years. The NIN provides parallel services—local search engines, an Iranian‑styled streaming platform, and messaging apps—but operates under strict government monitoring. Platforms are known to hand over user data to authorities. A Miaan Group report highlighted that domestic search engines censor key terms. For example, searches for “war” or “ceasefire” on Gerdoo, Iran’s home‑grown Google alternative, return no results, while another local engine frames the conflict as a decisive Iranian victory. Circumventing the blackout is costly and risky. Some Iranians travel overland to Turkey to regain connectivity, while others purchase VPNs or special SIM cards on a hidden market at prices ranging from $6 to $24 per gigabyte—five to twenty times the global average—effectively turning internet access into a luxury commodity. Despite the human and economic toll, Miaan Group warns that the shutdown is likely to persist as the government continues to promote the NIN, even though many of its services remain unreliable or non‑functional. There is no clear indication that unrestricted internet access will be restored in the near future.

Two weeks after the United States and Israel entered a direct conflict with Iran, the White House faced mounting criticism that the war would drive up fuel costs and anger voters. Former President Donald Trump attempted to calm concerns on Truth Social, noting that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and that higher prices translate into higher revenues for American companies. Now, five weeks into the hostilities, the reality is becoming clear: defense contractors and oil companies are the primary beneficiaries of the escalating energy market. The Department of Defense announced that Boeing will partner with Lockheed Martin to triple U.S. production of missile seekers, a move that sent Lockheed Martin’s stock up 25% since the start of the year. The announcement also lifted Boeing’s share price, underscoring how wartime procurement is boosting aerospace valuations. At the same time, Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas flows—has pushed U.S. crude from $65 to over $110 per barrel in just a month. Pump prices have mirrored this surge, breaking the $4‑a‑gallon barrier for the first time since 2022. Oil majors have responded with sharp stock gains; ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron have each risen more than 20% year‑to‑date. According to market‑research firm Rystad Energy, U.S. oil producers stand to earn an additional $63 billion as barrels trade above $100. “Oil prices in March have been materially higher than anyone expected, delivering a windfall for the vast majority of U.S. energy companies,” said Leo Mariani, senior analyst at Roth Capital Partners. The last comparable price shock occurred in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when U.S. gasoline peaked at $5 per gallon and inflation surged to 9%. That episode generated $916 billion in global oil‑and‑gas profits, with U.S. firms accounting for $281 billion. Chevron’s subsequent $75 billion stock‑buyback program—seven times its prior year’s amount—illustrates how quickly companies can translate price spikes into shareholder returns. Research by economists Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella Weber revealed that in 2022, 50% of oil‑company profits went to the top 1% of Americans, while the bottom half of the wealth distribution captured just 1% of those gains. Analysts warn that the current conflict could generate even larger windfalls because it has damaged actual production capacity in the Middle East, not merely reshuffled supply. “You’re benefiting a lot more from higher prices than you are from lost production,” Mariani noted, emphasizing the outsized profit potential. Even if hostilities cease, restoring pre‑conflict output in the region may take months, prolonging the supply crunch. As senior fellow Clay Seagle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, the current situation differs from 2022: “Now we’re dealing with a much more severe supply event because the oil has been actually removed from the market.” Prolonged high prices could eventually curb demand, as consumers and businesses seek alternatives—a shift seen after the 1970s oil shocks when the U.S. moved away from oil‑generated electricity. Nonetheless, many sectors remain vulnerable: diesel, a key fuel for trucks and aircraft, has risen 40%, and airline stocks such as United and American have fallen more than 15% since the year began. Moreover, disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production threaten fertilizer supplies essential for agriculture. Semieniuk cautions that “we’re approaching the kinds of disruption levels we saw in 2022, and with that, the kinds of profits that we saw there. If this takes longer, it’s going to surpass that.”

The cost of living crisis in the UK has become a persistent reality for many low-income families, who are struggling to make ends meet. The situation has worsened due to the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine, with companies expected to raise prices rapidly in the coming months.The author, Ella Michalski, is part of Changing Realities, a collaboration of parents and low-income families from across the UK. She shares her personal experience of struggling to get by, with her family relying heavily on their car due to her daughters' complex needs. The financial circumstances of her family have not significantly improved in the past five years, despite her partner working.The article highlights the need for more support from the government, particularly for families with dependent children. The recent abolition of the two-child benefit cap and the rise in the minimum wage are seen as positive steps, but more needs to be done to address the root causes of poverty. The author also calls for changes to universal credit, including ending the punishing five-week wait for a first payment.The government's crisis and resilience fund (CRF) is seen as a step in the right direction, but its accessibility and effectiveness are concerns. The author argues that the government needs to target cost of living support at those who need it most, with a recognition that families with dependent children need more support.