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The conflict in Iran has underscored how fragile a world built on fossil fuels truly is, with disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer shipments adding millions of tonnes of greenhouse‑gas emissions to an already critical climate system.While Saudi Arabia and other petrostates blocked any mention of a fossil‑fuel phase‑out at the UN COP30 summit last November, a new diplomatic effort is gathering momentum outside the UN framework.On 28‑29 April, Colombia will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. Unlike UN negotiations, the summit will be decided by majority vote, preventing a handful of countries from derailing progress.The event is co‑sponsored by Colombia – the world’s fifth‑largest coal exporter – and the Netherlands, home to Royal Dutch Shell. Organisers have invited nations that supported the COP30 roadmap, as well as sub‑national leaders such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 U.S. presidential contender.Delegates, described as a “coalition of the willing”, will share concrete plans to shift their economies away from fossil fuels while safeguarding workers and communities. Climate activists, Indigenous representatives and trade‑union leaders will also contribute ideas for turning the abstract goal of decarbonisation into actionable policy.One focal point will be the reduction of the $7 trillion per year in global fossil‑fuel subsidies, a figure that the International Energy Agency warns could be trimmed without harming the livelihoods that depend on these funds. UN Secretary‑General António Guterres has urged the International Energy Agency to create a platform that aligns the decline of fossil‑fuel investment with rapid clean‑energy expansion.The real leverage of this coalition lies in its economic weight. The 85 countries that backed the COP30 roadmap together account for a gross national product of $33.3 trillion—surpassing the United States’ $30.6 trillion and far exceeding China’s $19.4 trillion.If the Just Transition conference produces a credible, market‑oriented plan, it could send a clear signal to investors and policymakers that the era of oil, gas and coal is ending, prompting a reallocation of capital away from stranded‑asset risks.Adding California’s $4.1 trillion GDP to the coalition’s total would create an economic bloc of roughly $37.4 trillion, approaching the combined $50 trillion output of the United States and China.Newsom has repeatedly positioned California as a climate leader, noting that two‑thirds of the state’s electricity now comes from non‑carbon sources and that its economy has risen from the world’s sixth to fourth largest. He pledged that California will fill the void left by the United States’ retreat from the Paris Agreement by competing in global green‑technology markets.Public opinion supports such a shift: between 80 % and 89 % of the world’s population wants stronger climate action. The upcoming conference therefore represents a pivotal chance to translate widespread demand into a coordinated, economically powerful push for a fossil‑fuel‑free future.

Israel’s military issued a stark advisory to Iranians early Tuesday, urging them to avoid all train travel across the country from 8:50 am to 9:00 pm Iran time. The warning, posted in Farsi on social media, warned that anyone near railway lines or stations could become a target as Israel prepared to strike infrastructure. The advisory comes just hours before the U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum expires at 8 pm ET on Tuesday (1 am GMT Wednesday). Trump has repeatedly threatened to “take out” Iran’s bridges and power plants in a single night, a claim he reiterated at a White House press briefing on Monday. Iran rejected a cease‑fire proposal brokered by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, insisting on a permanent end to the war and presenting a 10‑point counter‑proposal that the U.S. deemed insufficient. Legal experts have warned that indiscriminate bombing of civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, a concern dismissed by the Trump administration. On the diplomatic front, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X that over 14 million Iranians are prepared to sacrifice their lives for the nation, underscoring the high domestic stakes. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that Monday would see the “largest volume of strikes” on Iran, with Tuesday expected to see even more attacks as the deadline approached. According to Iranian media, Israel struck Khorramabad airport in western Iran, while Israeli forces also hit a petrochemical plant in Shiraz and a ballistic‑missile launch site in the northwest. The United States reportedly deployed B‑2 stealth bombers that dropped 30,000‑lb GBU‑57 “bunker buster” bombs on an IRGC compound in Tehran, the same munitions used in the June attack on the Fordow nuclear site. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his security cabinet that the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon would continue independently of the U.S.–Iran negotiations, describing a “separation of theatres.” In a related development, a missile strike hit a petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia’s eastern city of Jubail, forcing an evacuation of workers. Israel reported multiple missile impacts in the Tel Aviv area, claiming Iran launched ballistic missiles equipped with cluster warheads, though no casualties were confirmed. Amid the heightened tension, Brent crude rose marginally to just above $110 a barrel in morning trading, reflecting market anxiety over potential disruptions to Middle‑East oil supplies.

The Iran war has laid bare the world's reliance on fossil fuels, with oil prices reaching $110 a barrel and potentially rising to $150. This has significant implications for global food security, with food prices expected to leap further due to a fertiliser supply crunch.The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, noted that fossil fuel dependency is 'ripping away national security and sovereignty and replacing it with subservience and rising costs.' The world's top emitters are divided into two camps: those pursuing a low-carbon future and those determined to exploit their fossil fuel reserves.China, the world's biggest emitter, is leading the charge for an electrified future, with renewables growing at record levels and clean energy driving a third of its GDP growth. India has also set ambitious targets, aiming to generate 60% of its electricity from low-carbon sources by 2035.In contrast, countries like the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are benefiting from high fossil fuel prices, with the US oil and gas sector set for a $60bn windfall. The US under Trump stands out as a paradox, with emissions falling until last year but now facing a potential rollback of climate protections.The war in Iran has also highlighted the need for a global transition to clean energy. As John Kerry noted, 'The future is being able to harness the power of electrons and send them where we need them, and use them where and when we need them.' Reducing methane emissions could cut temperatures by 0.3C by the 2040s, and a mandatory methane agreement may be necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Iran has issued a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in response to escalating tensions with the US. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iranian allies could shut the route, similar to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab al-Mandeb is a crucial passage for global oil trade, with 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passing through it in 2024, accounting for 5% of the global total. A closure of both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would block 25% of the world's oil and gas supply.The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region. During Israel's conflict in Gaza, the Houthis blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for ships associated with Israel or the US.A closure of the Bab al-Mandeb would have significant implications for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia and global container shipping from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. It could also exacerbate the ongoing global energy supply crisis.Experts warn that a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb would create a 'nightmare scenario,' disrupting trade toward Europe and potentially leading to a broader conflict in the region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa have pledged to strengthen security cooperation between their countries. The agreement was made during Zelenskyy's visit to Damascus, where he discussed ways to enhance security and development opportunities for both nations. The cooperation aims to provide more security and opportunities for development for their societies, Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram after the meeting. He highlighted that there is a great interest in exchanging military and security experience between the two countries. Ukraine, which has developed significant expertise in countering drone attacks during its ongoing conflict with Russia, has been offering its military capabilities to countries in the Middle East region. Zelenskyy has recently signed long-term military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and has sent teams to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to share Ukraine's expertise. Syria, which currently lacks effective air defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, stands to benefit from Ukraine's experience. Iran and its allied groups have been attacking US and Israeli targets, as well as targets in Gulf countries, using a range of missiles and drones. In addition to security cooperation, Zelenskyy and al-Sharaa discussed joint opportunities to strengthen food security across the region. Zelenskyy emphasized that Kyiv is a reliable grain supplier. The meeting between the two presidents was also attended by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who met with Zelenskyy, al-Sharaa, and Ukrainian Ambassador Andrii Sybiha. This trilateral meeting underscores the growing diplomatic engagement in the region. Zelenskyy's visit to Syria follows his recent trip to Turkiye, where he agreed on new steps in security cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and discussed joint gas infrastructure projects.

Eight OPEC+ participants have consented to raise daily oil‑production quotas by 206,000 barrels for May, a modest adjustment given that several key producers are constrained by the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran that has sealed the Strait of Hormuz.The strategic waterway has been blocked since late February, halting shipments from the core OPEC+ exporters Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, thereby tightening global supply.During a virtual session, the eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—endorsed the May quota increase and reiterated their commitment to monitor market dynamics closely.The joint statement highlighted ongoing vigilance over market conditions and expressed concern that attacks on energy infrastructure make restoration costly and time‑intensive, further limiting supply availability.Although the increase accounts for less than 2% of the volume lost due to the Hormuz closure, OPEC+ sources told Reuters the decision signals a willingness to expand output once the strait reopens.Crude prices have surged to around $120 per barrel, a four‑year high, driving up transport‑fuel costs worldwide.JPMorgan warned that if the blockage persists into mid‑May, oil could breach $150 a barrel, an unprecedented level.The May adjustment mirrors the April decision made on March 1, yet the conflict is estimated to have removed between 12 and 15 million barrels per day—approximately 15% of global supply.Iran has allowed certain regional vessels to navigate the strait; Iraqi crude was observed transiting, and Oman is conducting talks with Tehran to facilitate smoother passage.U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to expand attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by Monday.

Iranian drone attacks on Sunday inflicted serious damage on two of Kuwait's power and water desalination plants and sparked a fire at the Shuwaikh Oil Sector Complex, though no injuries were reported.Fatima Abbas Johar Hayat, spokesperson for Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy, described the incident as “criminal aggression” that caused “serious material damage” and forced the shutdown of two electricity‑generating units.Al Jazeera’s Malika Traina highlighted the strategic importance of the facilities, noting that around 90 % of Kuwait’s drinking water is produced by these desalination plants, making the disruption a critical blow to the nation’s water security.The strikes come as Gulf states bear the brunt of Tehran’s retaliation to recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have become the epicentre of these assaults, according to Al Jazeera’s Victoria Gatenby in Doha.Gatenby warned that if President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu follow through on threats to intensify pressure on Iran, Tehran may target similar civilian and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.Bahrain also suffered drone attacks, with its Gulf Petrochemical Industries Co reporting damage to several operational units and Bapco Energies confirming a hit on an oil storage tank. Both incidents caused fires that were quickly extinguished, and no casualties were reported.In Abu Dhabi, authorities responded to multiple fires at the Borouge petrochemical plant, attributing them to falling debris from an interception. Operations were suspended pending a damage assessment, but no injuries have been confirmed.Saudi Arabia announced the interception of missiles early Sunday, underscoring the heightened military alert across the region.Gatenby noted that while Iran claims it is only targeting US military assets, the pattern over the past five weeks shows a broader focus on civilian and critical energy infrastructure. Gulf nations have exercised “incredible restraint,” yet their leaders caution that patience is not unlimited and that Saudi Arabia is invoking its right to self‑defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter.The escalating series of attacks highlights the fragile security environment in the Gulf and raises concerns about the resilience of essential services such as power and water supply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The missing crew member of a US F‑15E jet, described by President Trump as a colonel, was located and rescued after a heavy firefight that involved hundreds of special‑forces operators, according to a US official speaking to Al Jazeera.Trump has set a 48‑hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which 20% of global oil and gas transits. Iran’s central military command dismissed the ultimatum as “helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid.”Iran reports that US‑Israeli strikes have killed five people and wounded 170 at the Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone, while more than 30 universities have been targeted since the war began on 28 February.The rescued airman was the second of the two‑person crew; Iran has not yet issued a comment, though officials had previously urged citizens to help locate the missing officer in hopes of gaining leverage against Washington.During the rescue operation, Iranian media said strikes killed five civilians in the southwest. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it shot down a US aircraft searching for the officer near Isfahan and destroyed an MQ‑9 Reaper drone, labeling the US effort a “desperate attempt to cover up a huge defeat.”Additional US‑Israeli attacks in Ardabil province near the Azerbaijani border killed three people, and the IRGC warned that the United States’ “target bank is inaccurate,” dismissing Trump’s threats to strike bridges as “laughable.”Russia has evacuated another 200 staff from the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant after a deadly perimeter attack, while Iran’s foreign minister warned that such raids could expose the region to radioactive contamination.Tehran’s prosecutor’s office ordered the seizure and freezing of assets belonging to more than 100 high‑profile individuals accused of supporting the enemy abroad.In the Gulf, Iranian drones damaged two Kuwaiti power and desalination plants, shutting down two electricity‑generating units but causing no injuries. Bahrain’s civil‑defence teams extinguished a fire at an unspecified facility, also without casualties. Abu Dhabi halted operations at Borouge’s petrochemical plant after debris‑induced fires, and the UAE’s air defences responded to missile and drone attacks aimed at its aluminium industry. Former IAEA director‑general Mohamed ElBaradei urged Gulf nations to act before the situation “turns the region into a ball of fire.”President Trump confirmed the rescue on Truth Social, calling it “one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History.” Meanwhile, former Army chief of staff General Randy George submitted a farewell letter after his removal, and satellite‑imaging firm Planet Labs announced an indefinite blackout of Iranian and regional imagery at the request of the Trump administration. Two individuals claiming to be relatives of the late Iranian general Qassem Soleimani were detained in the US, though Iranian media later disputed the familial link.Israel reported intercepting a missile launched from Yemen—the fifth such attack since the war’s start—and the Houthis, together with Iranian forces and Hezbollah, claimed a joint long‑range strike on Lod airport. Explosions were heard over Jerusalem, and missile attacks on Tel Aviv and central Israel wounded five civilians.In Lebanon and Syria, Israeli forces bombed the town of Kfar Hatta in Sidon, struck the southern city of Tyre after issuing evacuation warnings, and caused casualties in Maarakeh, where at least five people were reported killed.Energy markets are under pressure: OPEC is set to meet to decide May output policy after a modest April boost of 206,000 barrels per day. The war has driven crude prices above $100 per barrel, up from $65 before hostilities. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar and is expected to travel to the UAE as oil supplies remain disrupted. Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines reported that its LPG tanker Green Sanvi resumed Gulf crossing after being stranded. Iran announced it would allow Iraqi vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite maintaining a broader blockade, a move aimed at easing Iraq’s severe economic distress.

LIV Golf is shifting its focus from recruiting individual stars to securing whole tournaments, with the Saudi‑funded circuit now eyeing the possibility of hosting traditional national open championships. This strategic pivot could reshape the ongoing power tussle in elite golf. The proposal threatens the DP World Tour—formerly the European Tour—which already boasts a dense calendar of national opens across Europe and emerging markets like China, India and Australia. Adding more of these marquee events to LIV’s roster would intensify competition for the most coveted tournament slots. Although the recent exodus of top players from established tours to LIV appears to have stalled or even reversed, the battle for prime tournament markets is far from settled. Securing historic national opens would give LIV a foothold in events that carry deep cultural and commercial weight. To date, LIV has built a largely international schedule, staging events in Australia, South Africa, Mexico City, Hong Kong and Singapore for the 2026 season. While these locations broaden the circuit’s global reach, none possess the longstanding prestige of a national open. By contrast, the DP World Tour has successfully leveraged national opens to expand its brand beyond Europe, tapping audiences in Asia and the Pacific. This experience underscores the strategic value of such tournaments for sponsors and broadcasters. Meanwhile, the DP World Tour is engaged in high‑level negotiations with the PGA Tour to extend a strategic alliance that currently runs until the end of 2027. The PGA is reportedly pushing for a reduced annual financial underpin for DP World prize funds, and the emerging threat from LIV is a key bargaining chip in those talks. Recent player movements have added nuance to the rivalry: the PGA Tour welcomed back Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed after their departures to LIV, yet the Saudi Public Investment Fund shows no sign of scaling back its ambitious golf project. On the player front, Jon Rahm, who remains with LIV, is slated to address the media at Augusta National ahead of the Masters. Having lost an appeal over fines imposed for playing on LIV, Rahm is currently barred from the Ryder Cup and has refused to settle the penalties, leaving him in strained relations with the DP World Tour. His comments are expected to dominate the pre‑Masters press conference.