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The world's finance ministers and central bank governors are gathering in Washington for the half-yearly meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, with the global economy in a perilous spot. The US-Israeli war on Iran, coming soon after the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has triggered significant economic turbulence.Even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached, there will still be permanent economic scars. The conflict has caused damage to infrastructure, heaping further pressure on already struggling households. This is the biggest energy shock of the modern age, with oil and gas prices surging, inflation rising, and borrowing costs increasing.The IMF has said it will cut its growth forecasts for 2026 when it publishes its flagship world economic outlook. In every scenario, growth is slower and inflation higher. Households worldwide will feel the pain, with the world's poorest bearing the brunt.The fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has urged officials to work together, warning that "go-it-alone actions" may have appeal but would ultimately make matters worse. The IMF cautions that any energy support should be targeted and temporary to limit the costs of blanket support and avoid stoking inequality.For central banks, the fund urges them to remain vigilant, with financial markets expecting interest rates to be kept on hold or raised to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. The economic problems are interlinked with political instability, making it a challenging situation for governments worldwide.

A temporary 32‑hour ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine started at 4:00 p.m. local time (13:00 GMT) on Saturday and will run until midnight on Sunday, according to the Kremlin. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy affirmed Kyiv’s commitment to honor the pause provided Moscow does the same. President Vladimir Putin ordered the ceasefire to align with Orthodox Easter celebrations, more than a week after Zelenskyy first proposed the truce. Both sides have publicly confirmed their intention to observe it. Zelenskyy posted on social media that Ukraine will “adhere to the ceasefire and respond strictly in kind. The absence of Russian strikes in the air, on land, and at sea will mean no response from our side.” The Ukrainian army added it stands ready to react immediately if the truce is breached. Hours before the truce began, Russian forces launched at least 160 drones against Ukrainian targets, killing four civilians in the east and south and wounding dozens. The southern Odesa region suffered two fatalities and damage to civilian infrastructure. In the Russian‑occupied parts of Donetsk and Kherson, Ukrainian drone attacks killed four people, according to officials installed by Moscow. Public confidence in the ceasefire remains low. Last year’s Easter pause saw numerous accusations of violations from both sides, and similar doubts persist this time. Despite the tension, the warring parties completed a reciprocal exchange of 175 prisoners of war each on Saturday. The United Arab Emirates facilitated the swap, as confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Prisoner exchanges have become one of the few tangible outcomes of the stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks, which continue to falter over territorial issues. Ukraine has reiterated its proposal to freeze the conflict along the current front lines, a suggestion Russia rejected, insisting Kyiv relinquish all territory it holds in the Donetsk region—an offer Kyiv deems unacceptable. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia did not discuss the Easter proposal with the United States in advance and did not signal an immediate revival of the three‑way peace negotiations. Fighting on the front has largely stalled. While Russia has achieved modest territorial gains at a high cost, Ukrainian forces have recently pushed back in the southeast, and Russian advances have slowed since late 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Moscow now occupies just over 19 percent of Ukraine, most of which was seized in the early weeks of the conflict.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is facing a critical election that could determine the future of his 16-year rule. For the first time in his tenure, Orban's position appears uncertain, with many Hungarians seeking change.The election on Sunday will see around eight million voters choose between stability under Orban and a potential shift in power. Peter Magyar, Orban's centre-right, pro-European Union contender, has been attracting large crowds of supporters, with polls indicating his Tisza party is comfortably ahead of Orban's Fidesz.A visit by US Vice President JD Vance to Budapest and an endorsement by President Donald Trump did not seem to boost Orban's chances. Instead, public frustration over issues like the Iran war and rising prices may have cost him votes.Orban's campaign rhetoric, which includes warnings that Hungary could be dragged into the Ukraine war, has started to lose traction with long-time Fidesz supporters. Marta Bognar, a former Fidesz supporter, expressed her discontent, stating, 'We need change. If there is no change, I believe there could even be a civil war.'The opposition cites widespread corruption and a feudal system built by Orban as reasons for their support for Magyar. The outcome of the election remains uncertain due to Hungary's complex electoral system, which could favour the ruling party.

The online prediction market platform Polymarket has seen a surge in users betting on global events, including war and politics. With over $500,000 staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka, Ukraine, and millions more bet on the US-Iran conflict, the platform's influence is growing.Users, often anonymous and operating in groups on messaging apps like Discord, debate and strategize on how to profit from these events. Some critics argue that this gamification of war is immoral and can lead to manipulation of broader markets.Polymarket views itself as a source of truth, providing data on the future by allowing the public to bet on it. The platform has gained attention from major investors, including the Intercontinental Exchange, which has invested up to $2bn.However, concerns arise about the platform's decision-making process, which relies on an anonymous group of people holding a cryptocurrency token called UMA. This has led to disputes over the outcome of events and accusations of corruption.Experts warn that Polymarket's influence could extend beyond the platform, potentially manipulating larger markets and affecting institutions and pension funds.

Moldova is facing a severe environmental crisis after an oil spill in the Nistru river, which provides 80% of the country's drinking water. The spill was caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine's Novodnistrovsk hydropower complex on March 13. The attack has led to a significant contamination of the river, with oil slicks detected over 200 km downstream.The Moldovan government has declared an environmental alert and set up a crisis centre to monitor the spill and remove the pollutant. The government has also received support from European allies, including Romania and Poland, which have sent help to prevent the petrol from streaming downwards towards Chișinău.The oil spill has had a significant impact on local residents, with many struggling to access clean drinking water. Inflation in Moldova rose to 35% in 2022 and is currently around 5%, and the country has had to declare a state of energy emergency after Russia attacked the Isaccea–Vulcănești power line in Ukraine.The crisis has also highlighted the vulnerability of Moldova's water supply to attacks from Russia and the chaos caused by its war on Ukraine. Moldova's president, Maia Sandu, has laid the blame squarely on Moscow, saying Russia bears 'full responsibility' for the oil spill.The environmental disaster has sparked an information war between Moldova's pro-European and pro-Russian factions, with conflicting interpretations of the crisis. While Moldova's pro-European government holds Moscow responsible for the spill, pro-Russian propagandists claim the crisis was an accident caused by a Ukrainian truck.The Nistru oil spill has shown Moldova how exposed it is, and how fragile a society can become without access to clean drinking water. The war next door, combined with the climate crisis, give us little reason to think there won't be another ecological disaster like this.

Ukraine’s armed forces reported that Russian soldier losses surged to 35,351 in March, the highest monthly tally since the conflict began. 96% of those casualties were inflicted by Ukrainian drones, with artillery and small arms accounting for the remainder. This represents a 29% increase over February’s figures, according to Ukraine’s commander‑in‑chief. Ukrainian officials say the spike confirms a trend of rising Russian attrition. Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Colonel Pavlo Palisa, noted that Russia suffered 316 casualties per square kilometre captured in the first quarter of 2026, compared with just 120 per km² in 2025. Russia’s manpower replenishment is faltering. Although Moscow set a target of 409,000 contract soldiers for the year, recruitment in the first quarter averaged 940 troops per day, well below the required 1,120 per day. At this pace, analysts project a 65,000‑person shortfall by year‑end, a vulnerability Kyiv aims to exploit. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly set a goal of inflicting 50,000 Russian casualties each month to render the invading force “irrecoverably weakened.” Territorial gains for Russia are also receding. The Institute for the Study of War estimates Russian forces captured an average of 5.5 sq km per day in 2026, down from 10.66 sq km a year earlier and 14.9 sq km at the end of 2024. Ukrainian commanders attribute their lethal edge to a rapid expansion of drone capabilities. Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskii disclosed that Ukrainian drones struck 151,207 targets in March, a 50% rise from February, driven by roughly 11,000 sorties daily. Ukraine now enjoys a 1.3:1 advantage in First‑Person‑View drones on the frontlines. Interceptor drones also played a decisive role, with Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reporting a record 33,000 Russian UAVs shot down in March—double the previous month’s tally. His deputy, Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, is collaborating with manufacturers on next‑generation interceptors capable of speeds up to 550 km/h to counter emerging jet‑powered Shahed drones. Long‑range strike capacity is set to expand further. Fire Point, Ukraine’s leading long‑range drone producer, announced the near‑deployment of two ballistic missiles with ranges of 300 km and 850 km, the latter theoretically reaching Moscow. These offensive gains have shifted the operational balance. Syrskii asserts that, despite modest territorial concessions, Ukrainian forces have seized the “strategic initiative” by preventing large‑scale Russian offensives and intensifying mid‑range strikes (30‑120 km into Russian rear areas) against logistics hubs, warehouses, command posts and oil depots. On the ground, Ukrainian troops have recaptured eight settlements and reclaimed 480 sq km of land in the Dnipropetrovsk region, underscoring the momentum of Kyiv’s counter‑offensive. Analysts warn that Russia may still pursue broader territorial ambitions, eyeing the Odesa and Mykolaiv coasts and a potential southern buffer in Vinnytsia near Moldova’s Transnistria. President Zelenskyy reiterated that Russian leadership believes a Ukrainian retreat would spare “hundreds of thousands of people,” a claim he dismissed as a strategic ploy during recent ceasefire talks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that his country's technology played a crucial role in shooting down Iranian drones in the Middle East. This development comes after Zelenskyy announced last month that expert teams had been deployed to the region following the outbreak of the United States-Israeli war on Iran.In a recent statement, Zelenskyy revealed that Ukrainian forces participated in operations using domestically produced interceptor drones against 'Shahed' drones, which are similar to those used by Russia during its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.Key highlights of Zelenskyy's statement include:Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed Iranian 'shaheds' in several countries.The operations were not limited to training missions but involved actual support in building modern air defence systems.Ukrainian experts provided crucial advice on strengthening air defence systems in countries that collaborated with them.Zelenskyy expressed optimism about the future, stating that it is only a matter of time before mass production of interceptors capable of destroying drones with jet engines commences.Kyiv has effectively utilized cheap drone interceptors to neutralize Russian drones before they reach their targets. As part of the agreement, Ukraine is receiving weapons to protect its energy infrastructure and, in some cases, financial arrangements.During his recent visits to Gulf nations, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, Zelenskyy signed defence agreements with the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Protesters in Ireland and Norway have escalated demonstrations against rising fuel costs, turning major highways into blockades and prompting a convoy of lorries to converge on Oslo’s parliament. The unrest is linked to the broader spike in oil prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. In Dublin, hauliers, farmers and other groups have shut down motorways for the fourth consecutive day, causing fuel shortages, traffic chaos and warnings that essential supplies—food, clean water and animal feed—are at risk. The Irish police force, An Garda Síochána, described the blockades as unlawful and warned that continued defiance could lead to arrests. The Irish government has placed the army on standby to clear the obstructions, while the justice minister accused outside actors, including far‑right figures such as Tommy Robinson, of exploiting the protests for political gain. Fuel prices have surged dramatically: Irish diesel has risen from roughly €1.70 per litre to €2.17, and petrol from about €1.74 to €1.97. In Norway, despite a recent fuel‑tax cut on 1 April, diesel prices jumped 23.6 % from February to March, with overall fuel and lubricants up 17.9 %. Statistics Norway noted this as the steepest month‑on‑month increase on record, comparable only to the post‑Ukraine‑invasion spike of spring 2022. Irish Prime Minister Mícheál Martin warned that blockades of the Whitegate refinery and key depots in Galway and Foynes were pushing the country to the brink of turning away oil shipments. He called the situation “unconscionable and “illogical.” In response, Dublin unveiled a €250 million relief package that includes a temporary excise duty cut, an expanded diesel rebate for hauliers and bus operators, and an extended fuel allowance. Nevertheless, industry leaders remain skeptical about the measures’ ability to quell the unrest, and many protesters demand direct talks with ministers. Across the North Sea, Norwegian demonstrators—part of the “Dieselbrølet” (diesel roar) movement—marched a convoy of 70‑80 trucks toward the Storting. Their banners read “nok er nok!” (enough is enough). While only a few vehicles were permitted into Oslo, the show underscored hauliers’ demand for more predictable, lower fuel prices despite Norway’s status as an oil producer. Other nations have taken emergency steps: the Philippines declared a national energy emergency, and France authorized fuel tankers to operate on weekends and holidays until 11 May to stave off shortages. Back in Ireland, the blockade of the sole refinery and depots has left dozens of petrol stations empty, prompting a rush of motorists to fill up before supplies run out. Emergency services report slower response times, and the Irish Medical Organisation warns that delayed care could jeopardise patient health. Courier firm DPD has halted deliveries, and protesters have vowed to remain in Dublin for weeks, with spokesperson John Dallon stating, “If it takes a month, we are prepared to sit here.” The crisis has also forced the Irish Taoiseach to postpone a trade mission to Canada, highlighting the domestic political fallout of the fuel‑price turmoil.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.