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The LeadUnited States President Donald Trump has announced that a Memorandum of Understanding in ceasefire talks to end the US-Israel war with Iran "has been largely negotiated." The agreement will include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though it remains "subject to finalization" by US and Iranian negotiators and "various other countries." Trump made the announcement after holding calls with leaders from multiple Middle Eastern countries and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The Diplomatic BreakthroughThe US president released a statement on his Truth Social platform indicating that "final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly." This announcement follows a week of alternating threats and diplomatic efforts, during which Trump had moments earlier posted a picture of Iran covered in a US flag while simultaneously suggesting a deal was near.The diplomatic efforts gained momentum with Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, concluding a "highly productive" visit to Iran, according to Pakistan's military, which reported "encouraging progress" toward reaching a final understanding.The Regional ImpactThe potential ceasefire agreement comes after the US and Israel launched war on Iran on February 28, though fighting has largely remained paused since April 8, barring a few flare-ups. The US has continued to blockade Iran's ports, while Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies.Key sticking points in the negotiations have included the future of Iran's nuclear program, its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the future of US military presence in the region, and access to frozen Iranian funds. Tehran officials have repeatedly expressed wariness over negotiating with the US, which had twice launched military attacks on Iran during previous talks about its nuclear program.The Path ForwardWith Trump announcing that the agreement is "largely negotiated" and awaiting finalization, the coming days will be critical in determining whether this diplomatic effort can successfully conclude the conflict. The involvement of multiple regional powers suggests that any final agreement will likely require compromises from all parties, particularly regarding security arrangements and economic sanctions.The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant concession that could have immediate implications for global energy markets and regional stability. If successfully implemented, this agreement could mark a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, potentially reshaping the security architecture of the region.

The Lead: Pakistan’s Top General Seeks a Diplomatic Break On 23 May 2026, Pakistan’s army chief arrived in Tehran with a clear mandate: persuade Iran to work toward ending the escalating US‑Israeli war on Iran. The visit marks the most senior Pakistani military outreach to Iran since the conflict intensified earlier this year. The Diplomatic Mission Details: What the Tehran Stop Entailed High‑level meetings with Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior foreign‑policy officials. Discussions focused on confidence‑building measures that could reduce the risk of a broader regional war. The Pakistani delegation emphasized Islamabad’s strategic interest in a stable western border and in preventing spill‑over into Afghanistan and Pakistan’s own security landscape. The Geopolitical Stakes: Why the US‑Israeli Campaign Matters to Pakistan The conflict pits the United States and Israel against Iranian interests across the Gulf and beyond. For Pakistan, a deepening war threatens: Energy security, as Iranian oil routes are vital for South Asian imports. Economic stability, given the potential for sanctions and trade disruptions. Domestic political pressure, with public sentiment in Pakistan historically sympathetic to Iran. The Regional Impact: Ripple Effects Across South Asia and the Middle East Pakistan’s outreach signals a broader South Asian concern about the conflict’s spill‑over. Tehran’s response could shape: Iran‑Pakistan trade corridors, especially the Chabahar‑Gwadar link. Security cooperation against extremist groups that thrive in conflict zones. Diplomatic alignments, as both nations weigh their relationships with the United States, China, and Russia. The Outlook: Scenarios for De‑Escalation and Continued Tension Analysts see three near‑term possibilities: Successful mediation: Iran and Pakistan jointly lobby for a UN‑backed ceasefire, easing US‑Israeli pressure. Stalemate: Diplomatic talks stall, and the conflict remains confined to proxy engagements. Escalation: Failure to secure a diplomatic breakthrough leads to broader regional involvement, potentially drawing Pakistan into security commitments. In the coming weeks, the tone of Tehran’s statements and any concrete confidence‑building steps will indicate whether Pakistan’s high‑level visit can translate into a tangible de‑escalation pathway.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a four‑day visit to India on Saturday, 23 May 2026, and extended an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to meet at the White House, signaling a push to reset strained trade and security relations.Rubio’s Diplomatic Agenda: Trade, Energy and the QuadThe itinerary includes a ribbon‑cutting ceremony for a new wing of the U.S. embassy in New Delhi, meetings on energy security amid the U.S.–Israeli war in Iran, and a concluding Quad summit with Japan, Australia and the United States. Rubio emphasized that “the important relationship between our two countries is at the cornerstone of our approach to the Indo‑Pacific.”Tariff Spike and Trade Numbers Highlight Strained Commerce50 % tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Indian goods after India continued purchasing Russian oil.The visit spans four days, with stops planned in New Delhi, Kolkata, Agra and Jaipur.Rubio urged India to shift oil imports toward the United States and Venezuela.Strategic Ripple Effects Across the Indo‑PacificThe Quad meeting, revived in 2017, is expected to reinforce a collective stance against China’s regional influence. Energy‑related tensions, especially Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, add urgency to discussions on free passage and uranium stockpiles. Relations with Pakistan, which has been mediating U.S.–Iran talks, also factor into the broader security calculus.Future Outlook: White House Meeting and Quad MomentumRubio’s invitation sets the stage for a potential White House summit between Modi and President Donald Trump later in 2026.Progress on the Quad agenda could translate into deeper defence and technology cooperation.Continued dialogue on Russian oil purchases will be a litmus test for the durability of the renewed U.S.–India partnership.

The Shift in Elon Musk's Energy Strategy Has Elon Musk given up on Tesla’s Master Plans, on the electrified economy, on solar power as we know it? From the SpaceX IPO filing released this week, it sure seems like it. Musk's Changing Approach to Renewable Energy Tesla has released four Master Plans over the years, and while details have varied, the through line has been electrification of the economy. Musk put it best in his first edition: “the overarching purpose of Tesla motors…is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy.” The Rise of Fossil Fuels in xAI's Data Centers But recently, one of Musk’s companies, xAI, has embraced the mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy, using dozens of unregulated natural gas turbines to power its data centers with plans to buy $2.8 billion more, effectively cementing the fossil fuel’s role in the company’s AI operations. Space-Based Solar Power: The Future or a Distraction? Solar power isn’t missing in the SpaceX filing, it’s just all concentrated on space, which the company touts as the future of data center power. Terrestrial solar garners a few mentions — not as a power source for xAI data centers but instead to show how much better SpaceX thinks space-based solar will be. The Challenges of Space-Based Data Centers Even if SpaceX is able to bring down the cost of boosting a data center into orbit, the economics are challenging at best. Power prices for Starlink satellites are multiples higher than what a terrestrial data center typically spends, and protecting chips from the rigors of space won’t be easy or cheap. The Future of AI Compute and Energy Demand It’s likely that Musk considers xAI’s current data centers as stopgaps, that once SpaceX is able to loft gigawatts worth of servers into orbit — probably just a few years away, in his mind — he’ll scrap what’s here on the ground, natural gas turbines included and not have to think about NIMBYs anymore.

War‑Driven Surge Pushes U.S. Pump Prices Above $4.50 Since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in late February, the national average gasoline price has climbed to $4.55 per gallon (as of 22 May), roughly $1.50 higher than the pre‑conflict level. The spike reflects a 53 % increase in retail fuel costs, according to data from the Guardian’s interactive chart. Quantifying the Shock: Key Price and Supply Metrics $4.55 – current national average gasoline price (22 May 2026). $3.00 – approximate pre‑war baseline. 53 % – price rise since the first U.S.–Israeli strikes. 20 million barrels per day – share of global seaborne crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz (≈25 % of world trade). 30‑60 days – typical time to turn a barrel of crude into finished fuel. Why Prices Won’t Normalize Even If Hostilities End Tomorrow Energy analysts Denton Cinquegrana (Dow Jones Energy) and David Ruisard (Argus Media) stress that the bottleneck is not just the price of crude but the physical state of Gulf infrastructure. Even an undamaged well requires weeks to restart, and large crude carriers move at only about 13 knots, meaning a full backlog could take three to five weeks to clear. Furthermore, the region’s refineries need time to heat up and resume processing, while logistics for repositioning tankers add additional delays. As a result, industry estimates for a return to pre‑war price levels range from six months to two years. Broader Economic Ripple Effects The sustained “war premium” on fuel is feeding inflation and shaping political sentiment, as reflected in recent polls showing a historic backlash against President Trump. Higher pump prices also pressure other transport fuels: diesel remains tight, and jet fuel spikes have forced European airlines to adjust routes, though Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary notes a modest easing as alternative supplies arrive. Despite the cost, travel demand stays strong—AAA projects 45 million Americans will take a Memorial Day trip, potentially setting a new record. Outlook: Volatility Through Summer, Gradual Normalization Post‑Conflict If the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, analysts expect summer gasoline prices to settle in the mid‑to‑upper $3 range. If the chokepoint stays closed, prices could creep toward $5 per gallon and possibly set new records. Both Patrick De Haan (GasBuddy) and Cinquegrana agree that any short‑term dip after a peace announcement would be fleeting, driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Long‑term, countries hit hardest by the shock—such as Pakistan, India, South Korea and Japan—are likely to build strategic reserves, adding a structural floor to demand. In short, even a rapid diplomatic resolution will not erase the supply‑chain lag, and U.S. drivers should brace for elevated fuel costs well into 2027.

In a dramatic cabinet reshuffle on 23 May 2026, Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye dismissed Prime Minister Mamadou Bamba Sonko, citing an irreconcilable rift that threatened governmental stability.President Faye Dismisses Prime Minister Sonko Amid Growing Political RiftThe termination follows weeks of public disagreements over fiscal policy, security reforms, and the handling of upcoming parliamentary elections. Sources close to the presidency said the split was rooted in Sonko’s push for a more aggressive anti‑corruption agenda that clashed with factions loyal to the president’s inner circle.Numbers Behind the Power Shift: Parliamentary Seats and Approval RatingsSenegal’s National Assembly: 165 seats total; the ruling coalition currently holds 84 seats, just above the majority threshold.President Faye’s approval rating (June 2025 poll): 58%, a decline from 68% in early 2024.Sonko’s personal popularity: 45% approval, with stronger support in coastal regions.Implications for Senegal’s Governance and Regional StabilityThe dismissal could trigger a realignment of parliamentary alliances, potentially forcing the president to negotiate with opposition parties to secure a stable majority. Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty may affect foreign investment, especially in the burgeoning renewable‑energy sector, and could embolden extremist groups operating in the Sahel.What Comes Next: Potential Scenarios for Senegal’s Political LandscapeAppointment of a technocratic PM to placate both reformists and traditionalists, aiming to restore confidence before the December elections.Early parliamentary elections called by the president to re‑establish a clear mandate, though this risks voter fatigue.Coalition renegotiation with opposition leaders, possibly leading to a broader, more centrist government.

The Lead A nine-year-old girl, Ottoline, had a remarkable encounter with a large white butterfly in her garden. The butterfly had just emerged from its chrysalis and needed help to get rid of the remaining chrysalis and gain energy to fly. Aiding the Butterfly's Emergence Ottoline found the butterfly flapping in her wildflower patch on Sunday morning. She noticed that part of the chrysalis was still attached to the butterfly's wing, while the other wing was dry and ready to fly. The butterfly was struggling to remove the chrysalis but had exhausted its energy. Ottoline gently tugged on the chrysalis, and it came off, freeing the butterfly. Nourishing the Butterfly Although the butterfly was now free from the chrysalis, it still lacked energy. Ottoline went to her kitchen and fetched a banana, cutting a slice and placing it in front of the butterfly. The butterfly fed on the banana using its long proboscis and eventually gained enough strength to fly away. The Butterfly's Origin Ottoline wondered how the butterfly ended up in her garden, as large white butterflies typically lay their eggs on cabbages. Her garden does not have cabbages, but it does have an old kale plant that was infested with caterpillars the previous year. This might have been the butterfly's origin. The butterfly was fortunate to have escaped the threat of parasitic wasps that often lay their eggs inside the caterpillars.

The Conversational Canvas of Roddy Doyle Acclaimed for his works that traverse books, films, TV shows, and plays, Roddy Doyle sits down to discuss his projects, particularly The Woman Who Walked Into Doors, which resonates deeply with readers, especially women. Unraveling The Woman Who Walked Into Doors Published in 1996, the book remains a significant work in Doyle's bibliography. It tells the story of a woman experiencing domestic violence, a theme that continues to evoke strong reactions from readers. Doyle recalls a recent book signing event in Auckland where two women shared how the book profoundly impacted their lives. The Genesis of The Women Behind the Door Doyle's protagonist, Paula Spencer, has been a long-standing character in his works, from the TV series to his trilogy of novels. The idea for The Women Behind the Door struck him during the Covid-19 pandemic when he reflected on Paula's character and her experiences. Paula Spencer's Enduring Presence Doyle shares anecdotes about how Paula's character has appeared in his everyday life, from a Facebook post of a woman dressed similarly to Paula to inspiring new storylines. He muses about her character's freedom and the significance of her plaid shirt. Reflections on Writing and Legacy As Doyle approaches his 70th birthday, he contemplates his legacy and future projects. He emphasizes the importance of having the 'itch' to write and expresses gratitude for his career, citing advice he received about replacing feelings of luck with gratitude. Literary Influences and Advice Doyle discusses his favorite book, Charles Dickens' Great Expectations, and shares advice for aspiring writers: be kind to yourself and focus on quantity before quality. He also humorously recounts his favorite swear words and a memorable anecdote about James Joyce. A Conversation with Dickens Doyle muses about having two pints with Charles Dickens, appreciating his creative energy and complex life. For his funeral, he requests the theme music from Match Of The Day to set the tone for a lighthearted farewell.

The LeadGame of Thrones actress Hannah Murray shares her experience of being sectioned in a psychiatric hospital in her new memoir "The Make-Believe: A Memoir of Magic and Madness." The actress describes her mental health journey and the experience of being involuntarily admitted under the Mental Health Act.The Hospital ExperienceThe door to the room opens. A man enters the room. He is a Black man, bald and overweight. He is dressed in uniform. Blue uniform, a blue lanyard that reads "NHS". But I know Steve, the leader of the organisation that introduced me to magic, is a magician. I know he can appear in disguise.I approach the man and try to kiss him.He does not let me kiss him. Then no. It is not Steve.The man has brought me a plate of toast. He has brought me a cup of tea. I add sugar to the tea, which I would never have done in my former life, but a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down!I am a Ritual Master. And this, drinking my own urine, is a powerful ritual. This is all I need now to survive … I will never need to eat again. I survive on liquids and air and lightI do not eat the toast. I drink the tea. I am alone in the room again and I urinate into the cup and drink that too.I am a Ritual Master. And this, drinking my own urine, is a powerful ritual. This is all I need now to survive. It is the most potent of potions I can drink. I am a self-contained, utterly self-sufficient being. I will never need to eat again. I survive on liquids and air and light.I decide to explore outside the room. Outside my sanctuary. He has not come. So maybe I need to go searching for him …The Phone CallTime jumps. I am in a corridor lit by overhead strip lights. The electric light is pale yellow in tone. I am sat on one of three chairs in a row against the wall. The chairs are purple, curved plastic. I am still waiting for him to appear.There are two doors in front of me. One is the door to the blue room with the blue sofa and chair. Behind the other door is an office of some kind, and there is a woman in there, shuffling papers and talking on the phone.The woman comes out of the office. She is holding out my phone. My only possession now – the one artefact from my previous life. There is someone she wants me to speak to.Him.When I hold the phone to my ear, I hear a voice I recognise.But the voice belongs to my mother."Hannah?" she says. "Where are you? What's going on?"There is distress in her voice. Her voice is trembling with pain and anxiety.I do not want to hear it.This is a test. A horrible test, certainly, but one that I can pass. They are trying to tempt me back into the human. They are trying to lure me back into the past.I hang up the phone.But, after a moment, it starts to ring. The word Mum lights up the screen."Talk to her," says the woman.I answer the call.My mother sounds different now. Calmer. She asks again what's going on but gently, even cheerfully. I tell her everything's OK. That I'm fine. I tell her not to worry. I'm in a good place.This is the last time I will ever hear her voice, I think. This is the way I say goodbye.The DiagnosisThey tell me I am being sectioned.The words jar with my beliefs."Section 2 … the Mental Health Act … 28 days … right to appeal … "I cock my head.This does not fit at all. It does not fit in the world of Steve, of Ritual Master, of Shambhala and the invention of magic.I am not concerned. I am concerned only with the energy I can feel spiralling up through my body and the voices I can hear in my head.I pace the hospital corridors, delivering a tearful monologue, delivering the greatest performance of my life. A phrase comes to me. The Girl With All the Gifts. The title of a post-apocalyptic horror film released in 2016, starring Gemma Arterton.I am a magician. I am an actress. I am a writer. I have superhuman strength. I can fly. Anything that can be imagined, I can perform it. Every skill and every ability is mine.The film came out as a warning, and a prophecy.And because of me, the apocalypse has been averted.I am the saviour of the planet. I am the girl with all the gifts.The Journey to RecoveryIt was very hard, the journey to get here. It took 27 years. The path was twisting and full of setbacks, there were challenges and so much pain. There were times I wanted to give up. It was very hard. Everyone will have to make their own journey, and their journeys will be their own, unique as snowflakes or fingerprints. That is the beauty of it, the joy of it. Everyone has to figure it out for themselves.But I have laid the groundwork. I have walked the path. It starts with the energy healing, and it goes on and on through the seven dimensions, through increasingly magical planes. It goes on and on until you meet your soulmate, like I met mine.I was in a TV show called Game of Thrones, hidden in plain sight in the midst of a cultural phenomenon. I, the key to the world's salvation, wore the face of a character called Gilly, but really I played every role. Then I worked on a film called Detroit in Boston. David Benioff and Dan Weiss and Kathryn Bigelow were the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Numbers are irrelevant. Three counts as four. David and Dan and Kathryn cast me in the roles that brought about my destiny. The end and beginning of the world.I am the Ur-actress. I am every actress. Every performance ever given has been animated by my energy, my talent, by the gestures and facial expressions I am performing here and now.The Memoir and BeyondThis is an edited extract from The Make-Believe: A Memoir of Magic and Madness by Hannah Murray, published by Cornerstone (£18.99). To support the Guardian, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.Hannah Murray will be in conversation with Jessie Cave at Kings Place in London on 5 June.