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JD Vance, the US Vice-President, has embarked on a high-stakes mission to Islamabad to negotiate a peace deal with Iran, a task that has been likened to a 'poisoned chalice.' Vance's challenge is to secure a durable peace between a rhetorical ceasefire and the resumption of hostilities.Vance, a vocal critic of US wars in the Middle East, now finds himself at the forefront of efforts to end the conflict. His presence at the talks, the highest-level meeting since the Iranian revolution of 1979, underscores the significance of this diplomatic push. However, Iran's negotiators feel emboldened by their recent successes, including control of the strategic Hormuz strait and their resilience in the face of a massive US-Israeli onslaught.The path to negotiations is fraught with hurdles. Iran has set conditions for talks, including the release of its blocked assets, a demand the US has not publicly agreed to. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker, emphasized that these conditions must be met before negotiations can begin. This stance could complicate Vance's efforts to initiate meaningful dialogue.Vance's mission could have far-reaching implications for his potential presidential run in 2028. His credentials as a MAGA supporter have been questioned due to his less-than-enthusiastic approach to the war in Iran. The outcome of these talks could either bolster or undermine his political standing.Tehran's negotiators are known for their tireless and relentless bargaining style, which could put Vance under significant pressure. The US, while able to walk away from the negotiating table, cannot guarantee the free flow of marine traffic from the Persian Gulf, giving Iran key leverage over the White House. This dynamic could have profound implications for the global economy, particularly in terms of fuel shortages and supply chain disruptions.Before departing for Islamabad, Vance indicated that his team had received clear instructions from Donald Trump regarding the negotiations. He expressed a willingness to engage in good faith with Iran but warned against attempts to 'play' the US. The success of these talks remains uncertain, but their impact on global stability and Vance's political future is undeniable.

Renowned actor Sam Neill, known for his role in the Jurassic Park movie franchise, has joined the fight against a proposed goldmine near his vineyard in Central Otago, New Zealand. The mine, backed by Australian company Santana Minerals, could potentially damage the region's pristine environment and threaten up to 650,000 native lizards.The proposed Bendigo-Ophir goldmine, located in an area legally enshrined as 'outstanding natural landscape,' has sparked fierce division between communities. While proponents claim it will create 357 jobs and boost the economy, critics argue it will dampen tourism and harm the environment.Neill, who has grown wine under his Two Paddocks label in the region for 30 years, emphasizes his connection to the land, stating, 'If this mine goes ahead... everything that you see [there] is under a claim [by the mining company]. And there will be mining all around us, and that'll be the end.'The mining industry has a history of environmental disasters, particularly with tailings dams storing toxic waste. Ian Taylor, a prominent Māori businessman, worries about the 600km-long alpine fault running down the South Island, which could lead to seismic risks.Santana Minerals claims the dam has been designed to withstand a one-in-10,000-year earthquake and denies that the mine will negatively affect tourism. A decision on the Bendigo-Ophir mine is expected by the end of the year.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has significantly altered the dynamics of the nuclear programme negotiations. Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have stated that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration's war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran 'balance the asymmetry of power' with the US.Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who helped negotiate the JCPOA, noted that 'this administration, to say it more politely, cannot unsoil the bed. There's no way to get back to the status quo ante before this war started.'In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, which barred Tehran from enriching its uranium to weapons-grade. Trump called the deal 'one of the worst and most one-sided transactions' the US had ever entered into.However, after a strategy of high pressure – first through returning sanctions and then, after Trump's return to power in 2025, a war that was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities – the current US administration has found itself in more complex negotiations than before its campaign of economic and military strikes.Robert Malley, a Yale lecturer who was former special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden and a lead negotiator on the JCPOA, said: 'The strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few, because the US has handed Iran a tool that it always had, but it never thought of using, or never felt it could.'The chances for a comprehensive agreement addressing all of the US and Iran's grievances appear slim. While the Obama administration sought to negotiate exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme in the lead-up to the 2015 agreement, the Trump administration has sought a broader deal limiting Iran's ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari – an Iranian‑American representative from Arizona – publicly labeled President Donald Trump an “evil human being” who aspires to be an emperor, and urged that he be removed from office in light of the escalating war with Iran. Ansari, whose parents fled the Iranian regime in the 1970s, issued a statement after Trump’s threat to annihilate Iran’s civilization was followed by a tentative two‑week cease‑fire. She expressed relief for the 90 million Iranians who had spent a harrowing day fearing a nuclear catastrophe. In a phone interview, the 34‑year‑old lawmaker described Trump as “mentally unstable, deeply troubled, and solely self‑interested,” adding that his policies have stripped basic services from average Americans while enriching his family. Ansari warned that Trump’s rhetoric – promising an “America first” stance yet launching strikes on seven nations – constitutes a clear danger to both Iran and the United States, and she called for the cabinet or Congress to intervene under the 25th Amendment. She cited a series of controversial foreign‑policy moves, including the alleged illegal kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, threats to seize Greenland, erosion of NATO credibility, and talk of taking over Cuba. In Iran, she argued, the administration has already committed war crimes by targeting schools, bridges and hospitals. Ansari also highlighted the broader humanitarian fallout: destroyed civilian infrastructure, a collapsing economy, soaring food‑security risks, and mass starvation. She relayed a conversation with a young Iranian doctor who described doubled prices and a dire economic outlook, urging the U.S. to cease attacks on civilian targets. Beyond Trump, the congresswoman announced plans to introduce articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, accusing him of repeatedly violating his oath by facilitating war‑crimes. She criticized Vice‑President JD Vance for not mobilising the cabinet to remove Trump, and warned that the current crisis represents a “five‑alarm‑fire moment” unprecedented in modern American history. Ansari’s remarks come amid a shifting Iranian diaspora sentiment. While some Iranian‑American groups initially celebrated the war’s onset, many now view the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns as counter‑productive, fearing they bolster the hard‑line regime. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime’s grip appears tighter, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei assuming leadership. Ansari stressed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains entrenched, and that the regime continues to exploit civilian suffering for propaganda. She concluded by urging Americans to recognise Iran’s rich cultural heritage and to reject the notion that bombing will liberate its people, emphasizing that the United States must avoid actions that only strengthen an authoritarian government.

Reports are emerging of deadly Israeli airstrikes targeting Beirut, the capital city of Lebanon. The strikes have resulted in a significant number of casualties, although exact details are still coming in.The incident has heightened tensions in the already volatile Middle East region, where conflicts between Israel and neighboring countries have been a longstanding issue.The situation in Beirut remains dire, with concerns growing over civilian safety and the potential for further escalation.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

Israel's devastating bombardment of Lebanon in the hours after a US-Iranian ceasefire was announced has been widely condemned amid global efforts to salvage the truce. The bombing, which killed more than 200 people, including strikes with heavy munitions on densely populated areas, drew outrage from the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international humanitarian organisations.Benjamin Netanyahu insisted Lebanon was not included in the Tuesday night ceasefire agreed by Donald Trump, and vowed the Israeli military would continue to strike Hezbollah targets “wherever necessary”. The Israeli prime minister said his forces had killed the secretary to Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem.The US vice-president, JD Vance, backed Netanyahu, claiming the US had never agreed to the inclusion of Lebanon in the truce. However, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that further Israeli strikes on Lebanon would render negotiations “meaningless”. Iran would not abandon the Lebanese people, he said.Pakistan, which led the efforts to broker a ceasefire after Trump threatened a civilisation-ending onslaught, has said Lebanon had been part of the agreement. Robert Malley, a former American envoy who led earlier US-Iranian negotiations, said: “I would trust the Pakistani mediator that Lebanon was included.The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said on Thursday: “Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into the war, but Israel’s right to defend itself does not justify inflicting such massive destruction.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, condemned the Israeli strikes as “unacceptable” and his British counterpart, Yvette Cooper, described them as “deeply damaging”, adding that failure to include Lebanon in the ceasefire would “destabilise the whole region”.

The UK government is calling for Lebanon to be included in the recent US-Iran ceasefire agreement, as divisions deepen between the UK and US over how to implement the truce. UK Defence Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have emphasized the need for a comprehensive ceasefire that covers Lebanon, following Israel's intensified bombing campaign in the country, which has resulted in at least 254 people killed. Healey warned that imposing tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as suggested by US President Donald Trump, would set a dangerous precedent for international shipping. The UK is advocating for the strait to remain open and free, consistent with international navigation laws. Cooper is expected to stress that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire and that there must be no return to conflict. The UK's stance has been communicated to both the US and Israel. The escalation in Lebanon has prompted Iran to halt the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in global fuel and fertilizer prices. The UK is working to support the reopening of the strait, which is a critical artery for the global economy. Cooper will emphasize that freedom of navigation is crucial for global trade and that no country can close these routes without violating the law of the sea.

On a Wednesday night, Israel launched a massive air campaign against Lebanon that resulted in the deaths of over 300 civilians and struck more than 100 targets within ten minutes, including densely populated neighborhoods in central Beirut. The operation, described by Israeli officials as the largest strike against Hezbollah since the month‑long war with Iran began, has drawn sharp international condemnation. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, maintains that the attacks were narrowly aimed at Hezbollah operatives who allegedly relocated command posts to civilian districts such as the Dahieh suburb. Critics, however, argue that the scale and timing of the strikes suggest a broader political motive: to disrupt the US‑Iran ceasefire negotiated by former President Donald Trump, a deal many view as unfavorable to Netanyahu. Evidence fueling this theory includes the lack of any prior warning and the targeting of locations where high‑profile Hezbollah figures were present. Among the dead was Ali Yusuf Harshi, the nephew and personal adviser of Hezbollah secretary‑general Naim Qassem, leading some observers to speculate that the operation may have been a failed attempt to eliminate Qassem himself—mirroring Israel’s 2024 alleged assassination of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah officials later claimed they had been “notified of a ceasefire” and were committed to it from the morning of the attack, yet by Thursday both sides were again exchanging heavy fire. Netanyahu’s public justification for the strike—citing the killing of an aide to Qassem—appeared thin, reinforcing the perception that the operation was designed to act as a “spoiler” to a ceasefire he had previously opposed. Analysts at the Soufan Center in New York warned that, even if Lebanon is technically outside the ceasefire framework, the sheer magnitude of Israel’s assault will be viewed as escalatory. They argue the strikes serve a dual purpose: to widen the rift between Iran and its proxies and to retaliate against what Israel perceives as being sidelined in the ceasefire negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the attacks, stating they breach the ceasefire agreement and render ongoing talks meaningless. He warned of a possible Iranian response against Israel, underscoring the fragile nature of the diplomatic effort. Marion Messmer, director of the international security programme at Chatham House, highlighted a deeper strategic dilemma: the United States’ difficulty in managing its alliance with Israel amid the broader US‑Iran conflict. She noted that Israel’s insistence that its Lebanese operations are unrelated to the ceasefire reveals a “key vulnerability” in Washington’s ability to steer its regional partners, potentially trapping the US in a conflict it seeks to exit. Further complicating the picture, the Israeli Defense Forces reportedly assess that defeating Hezbollah remains unrealistic despite the intensified bombing campaign, suggesting that the current strategy may be more about political signaling than achieving decisive military objectives. In sum, the Israeli strike on Lebanon not only caused a tragic loss of civilian life but also raised serious questions about the durability of the US‑Iran ceasefire, the strategic calculations of Netanyahu’s government, and the broader stability of Middle‑East geopolitics.