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The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

Lead: Overview of the tentative 60‑day cease‑fire extensionOfficials from the United States and Iran say they have drafted a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would prolong the existing cease‑fire for 60 days and launch negotiations aimed at ending the war permanently. The framework still requires final sign‑off from President Donald Trump and has not yet been publicly confirmed by either side.Key provisions of the proposed memorandumStrait of Hormuz: Shipping would become “unrestricted,” mines removed within 30 days and the U.S. naval blockade lifted proportionally.Sanctions and aid: The U.S. would waive selected sanctions, allow Iran to sell oil freely, and discuss humanitarian aid and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in frozen assets.Nuclear commitment: Iran would pledge not to pursue a nuclear weapon and negotiate the disposition of its estimated 440 kg of 60 % enriched uranium.Regional conflicts: The agreement envisions an end to Israel’s offensive in southern Lebanon and a broader discussion of Iran’s support for proxy groups.Numbers that shape the deal60 days – the duration of the cease‑fire extension.20 percent – share of global oil and LNG that transits the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions.$2 million – tolls some vessels have been forced to pay during the conflict.Billions of dollars – value of Iranian assets currently frozen abroad.Strategic implications for the region and global marketsUnrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz would ease pressure on global energy prices, which have been volatile since the blockade began in April. A credible nuclear‑non‑proliferation commitment could reduce the risk of a regional arms race, while sanctions relief would provide Iran with much‑needed foreign exchange. The cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon could also de‑escalate the broader Israel‑Iran proxy confrontation.What the next 60 days could mean for peace talksIf the MOU is ratified, the 60‑day window will become a high‑stakes diplomatic sprint. Negotiators are expected to focus first on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, followed by detailed discussions on sanctions, proxy support and a permanent cease‑fire mechanism. Continued skirmishes—such as recent U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian drone attacks—highlight the fragility of the pause and underscore the importance of swift, coordinated implementation.

The Lead: Asian Markets React to Diplomatic DevelopmentsAsian stocks are rising today amid hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that has been impacted by regional tensions. The positive market sentiment comes as US President Donald Trump has circulated a draft peace agreement among allies, including Israel, which could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.The Event Details: US-Iran Peace Proposal TermsPresident Trump has shared a draft peace agreement for the war with Iran, similar to proposals circulating throughout the Middle East. The key provisions include:Opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shippingLifting the US blockade of Iranian portsProviding Iran with access to up to $12 billion (£9 billion) in frozen assetsTargeting the return of commercial shipping in the strait to pre-war levels within 30 daysAnticipating negotiations lasting up to 60 days on Iran's nuclear programThe Data Analysis: Market Performance and Oil ImpactAsian markets are showing strong gains across the board:Japanese Nikkei: +2.65%Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.9%South Korean Kospi: +3.6%TSMC (chip maker): +2.6%Samsung Electronics: +6%SK Hynix: +0.6%Concurrently, oil prices have declined, with Brent crude falling approximately 1% to $93.02 per barrel. The price drop reflects investor calculations about the potential impact of the Strait of Hormuz reopening on global oil supplies.The Impact Analysis: Regional and Global Economic ImplicationsThe potential peace deal between the US and Iran could have far-reaching implications for global markets and regional stability. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes, could significantly impact energy markets and shipping routes. Additionally, the lifting of port blockades and access to frozen assets could stimulate Iran's economy and create new trade opportunities in the region.The rally in Asian tech stocks, particularly semiconductor manufacturers, suggests that while geopolitical tensions are easing, enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and related technologies continues to drive market sentiment in the region.The Prediction: Market Trajectory and Upcoming Economic IndicatorsAs diplomatic negotiations progress, markets will likely continue to react to developments in the US-Iran peace process. The coming weeks will be critical as the 60-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear program unfolds. Investors should also monitor upcoming economic indicators that could influence market sentiment:French inflation report (7.45am BST)Spanish inflation report (8am BST)Andrew Bailey speech at the Reykjavik 2026 economic conference (9.20am BST)Germany inflation report (1pm BST)Canadian Q1 2026 GDP (1.30pm BST)The interplay between geopolitical developments and economic data will likely shape market direction in the coming weeks.

The LeadSam Campbell's new Channel 4 mockumentary, Make That Movie, has been crowned the funniest TV show of the year. The series, which follows a former big-shot director helping ordinary people create bizarre, low-budget films, is a chaotic celebration of 'outsider art' and unhinged creativity.The Surreal Premise of 'Make That Movie'At the heart of the show is a high-concept premise that defies logic. Campbell plays a version of himself who was once a successful director but now spends his time driving around in a van with a giant model film camera on top. His mission is to help people in need by producing bizarre low-budget productions based on their outlandish ideas.Snake Transformation Thriller: A Da Vinci Code-style story where a couple changes into snakes (but not simultaneously).Cyber-Thriller for Pensioners: A Lawnmower Man-style plot where seniors physically enter computers by singing songs and inserting USB cables into their mouths.Animated Feet: A project designed to cheer up a couple trapped in a cave.A Refreshing Pivot from Trauma to AbsurdityThe show arrives at a critical cultural moment. The review highlights a 'decade-long tailspin' where television was dominated by trauma-focused narratives. Had *Make That Movie* been attempted a few years ago, executives would likely have forced a subplot about dissociating from an abusive childhood. Instead, the show offers pure, unadulterated silliness.Celebrating the 'Outsider Art' of Bad CinemaSam Campbell is described as having an 'alien' quality, a stark contrast to the typical 'everyman' comedian. His stock in trade is looking like a frozen Paul McCartney, and this unique persona drives the show's success. By worshipping films like Birdemic: Shock and Terror, Campbell validates 'bad' cinema as a form of glorious outsider art.The Future of Sam Campbell's Comedy EmpireWhile the format is packed with content—23 minutes to meet characters, hear ideas, and watch the finished product—the sprinting pace is by design. The review suggests that nothing will kill the show faster than lapsing into formula. As long as Campbell and his uncomprehending face remain fixtures on television, the show is poised to become a lasting cult classic.

The LeadUnited States President Donald Trump has threatened longtime ally Oman with military force if it gets involved in the dispute over shipping access to the Strait of Hormuz, as Washington's war on Iran once again risks engulfing the Middle East. Trump's threat to "blow up" Oman came as Muscat reportedly held talks with Iran about overseeing passage through the strategic waterway that handles more than 20 percent of the world's global oil traffic.Trump's Unprecedented Threat Against a Key Ally"Nobody is going to control it," Trump said of the strait during a cabinet meeting in Washington. "It's international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up." This direct threat against a country with which Washington has had relations for more than 200 years has sent shockwaves across the region and drawn international criticism.While Hormuz is an international strait, most of it is located solely in Iranian and Omani territorial waters – not international waters – with parts of its outlying areas reaching United Arab Emirates (UAE) territorial waters. This geographical reality complicates Trump's assertion that the waterway is purely international.The Strategic Importance of the Strait of HormuzAs the only route for Gulf oil producers to ship exports to the open ocean, the strait has served as a free international maritime route for decades. Following the US-Israeli joint attacks on Iran on February 28, however, Tehran closed the waterway and began to assert sovereignty over it, including charging tolls of as much as $2m per ship at times.Under international maritime law, countries are not permitted to charge tolls to shipping passing through natural straits such as Hormuz, even where they are not in international waters. Countries can, however, provide services to shippers, such as insurance, maintenance and docking assistance.Regional Implications of Trump's ThreatShortly before Trump's comment, Iran's state television reported that Iran and the United States were close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) under which Tehran and Muscat would jointly control the strait. The proposal designates payments for passing vessels, framed as "fees for services" rather than "tolls."While the Trump administration has called the claims of such an MoU "a complete fabrication," analysts say his threat suggests that an understanding between Iran and Oman is precisely what the US president is trying to avoid."What Washington wants to prevent is the normalisation of Iranian control over Hormuz, dressed in administrative and legal clothing and given Arab cover by a US ally," Muhanad Seloom, non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.International Reaction and Legal ConcernsCritics called the threat reckless. Raed Jarrar, the advocacy director at the US-based rights group DAWN, likened the US president's comments to those of a "mafia boss.""The UN Charter prohibits the threat of force against any state, and that prohibition binds the United States exactly as it binds everyone else," Jarrar told Al Jazeera. "Threatening to 'blow up' an Arab country because its waters happen to sit along an oil route Washington wants reopened is the same lawless logic that produced this war in February."Samir Puri, a visiting lecturer in war studies at King's College in London, said Trump's threat to Oman was "really surprising" and warned that it would "send shockwaves across the region."Oman's Diplomatic Role in the US-Iran ConflictOman has played a unique role in the region as a mediator between the US and Iran. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi was a key mediator in US-Iran nuclear talks before the war on Iran began. Just before the US-Israeli joint attack on Tehran in February, Albusaidi had been meeting US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, to facilitate negotiations about the future of Tehran's nuclear programme.Unlike other US allies in the Gulf, such as Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, Oman does not host US forces. It was nevertheless dragged into the conflict when Iran launched attacks on US military assets and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region in the early days of the war.Future Outlook for the RegionSeloom, from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said Oman is "one Gulf state that is simultaneously a US security partner and Iran's most trusted Arab interlocutor.""In peacetime, that ambiguity is an asset. In wartime, it becomes a liability, which is precisely the inversion now playing out," he told Al Jazeera.The analyst argued that joint Iran-Oman control over Hormuz was "more posture than probability." "Oman's real interest is not co-owning Iran's blockade; it is brokering the strait's reopening," he said.Still, according to Seloom, the prospect of Iran and Oman jointly shaping the future of the Strait of Hormuz alarms the US president for three reasons: "It would turn Iran's grip on the chokepoint into a permanent post-war fact rather than a temporary act of war; it would set a precedent that littoral states can metre and monetise an international waterway, eroding the freedom-of-navigation principle the United States underwrites worldwide; and it would hand Tehran a strategic win that outlasts any ceasefire."

The US Strikes Near Bandar Abbas The United States has carried out new strikes near Iran's Bandar Abbas port, targeting what it described as military threats to its forces and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports. Iranian media said the explosions caused no casualties or property damage. Escalating Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz The latest developments come amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route that has become a major flashpoint in negotiations and confrontations involving Iran and the US. Iran's Response to the Strikes Iranian state media reported explosions near Bandar Abbas port and the Strait of Hormuz for the second time since Tuesday, amid rising tensions in one of the key flashpoints in Iran-US negotiations. Iran's Tasnim news agency, quoting a military source, said the IRGC Navy fired on a US tanker, accused of crossing the Strait of Hormuz with its radar turned off. Diplomatic Efforts and Sanctions US President Donald Trump said Iran would receive no sanctions relief under any agreement and insisted Tehran would surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, despite Iran repeatedly rejecting those demands. The US Treasury Department added Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority to its sanctions list, targeting the body Tehran created to manage ship transit requests through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional Reactions and Developments Kuwait's military said its air defences intercepted 'hostile' missiles and drones as warning sirens sounded across the country. The Israeli military ordered residents of parts of Tyre city and Zaqqoq al-Mufdi in southern Lebanon to vacate the area immediately and move north of the Zahrani River.

The Lead: Vertu's AI-Powered Foldable Targets Executive Market Luxury smartphone brand Vertu has unveiled the Alphafold, a foldable phone powered by an AI agent designed specifically for executives managing business operations on the move. The device represents Vertu's latest attempt to reinvent itself for the AI era, combining luxury materials with enterprise-focused AI capabilities to target the high-end business market. The Event Details: Luxury Meets AI: The Alphafold's Enterprise Capabilities The Alphafold features Hermes Agent, built on the open-source Hermes project by Nous Research, which can connect to enterprise systems like ERP and CRM. The AI agent coordinates tasks such as approvals, scheduling, sales tracking, travel planning, and operational reporting through natural-language prompts. The device can route requests across multiple AI models including OpenAI's GPT, Anthropic's Claude, Google's Gemini, and selected open-source models, while integrating with more than 80 apps and dozens of native phone functions for cross-platform workflows. Vertu has emphasized the device's privacy-focused architecture featuring a proprietary A5 security chip designed to isolate authentication keys, biometric credentials, and sensitive enterprise information from the main operating system. The company states that commercially sensitive data can be processed locally on the device, while prompts sent to external AI models are redacted or tokenized before leaving the phone. The Data Analysis: Premium Pricing Strategy in the Smartphone Market The Alphafold starts at $6,880 for the calfskin version, with higher-end models featuring bespoke finishes including alligator leather, 18K gold, and natural diamond accents. Vertu's highest-end standard model is currently priced at $46,800, with further customization options available. This pricing strategy positions Vertu firmly in the ultra-premium segment of the smartphone market. While foldable smartphones remain a niche segment globally—with IDC data showing approximately 20 million units shipped in 2025, accounting for less than 2% of total smartphone shipments—Vertu is betting that the combination of luxury materials and AI capabilities will justify its premium pricing. The average price of foldable smartphones was about $1,300 last year, roughly three times the price of non-foldable smartphones. The Impact Analysis: How AI is Transforming Executive Productivity Vertu CEO Molly Ma highlighted that existing AI features on smartphones from major manufacturers remain focused largely on consumer tools such as image editing and voice assistance, leaving room for more advanced AI-agent workflows tied to enterprise systems. The Alphafold aims to address this gap by providing executives with a device that can seamlessly integrate with their business operations and workflows. The device's larger foldable display (8.05-inch inner screen and 6.53-inch outer screen) is better suited for multitasking and productivity-oriented experiences, according to Kiranjeet Kaur, associate research director for mobile phones research at IDC. However, she noted that enterprise AI adoption on smartphones still lags behind computers, with most enterprise smartphone decisions continuing to be driven by ecosystem integration and device management support rather than AI capabilities. The Prediction: The Future of Luxury AI-Powered Mobile Devices The Alphafold represents Vertu's significant step forward from its previous AI-focused device, Agent Q, with Ma noting that AI-agent technology has matured rapidly over the past year, with improvements in memory, automation, and app integration. While the company has not yet undergone third-party security audits for the device, it has confirmed that independent audits and certification remain on its security roadmap. As the first 115-unit batch of Vertu's Alphafold begins shipping across major markets including the U.S., the device will serve as a test case for whether there's a market for luxury smartphones with enterprise AI capabilities. If successful, Vertu's approach could inspire other manufacturers to develop similar devices targeting the executive market, potentially accelerating the integration of AI agents into mobile workflows.

The Lead: Singapore's Unexpected Economic Surge Singapore's economy has grown faster than expected in the first three months of 2026, with furious demand for AI chips outweighing the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. The city-state's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6 percent year-on-year in Q1, significantly beating the official advance estimate of 4.6 percent. Technical Breakthrough: AI-Driven Manufacturing Growth On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP grew 1 percent from the previous quarter. The Trade Ministry attributed this growth to strong performances in Singapore's wholesale trade, manufacturing, and finance and insurance sectors. In particular, robust AI-related demand led to growth in the machinery, equipment & supplies segment of the wholesale trade sector, as well as the electronics and precision engineering clusters within the manufacturing sector, the ministry stated. Financial Impact: Global Context and Regional Position Singapore accounts for approximately 10 percent of global semiconductor production and 20 percent of semiconductor chip equipment production, making it a key player in the AI revolution. The United Nations recently cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent (down from 2.7 percent) due to the Middle East conflict. Despite these global challenges, Singapore maintained its 2026 growth outlook at between 2 and 4 percent, acknowledging downside risks from rising energy and fertilizer prices amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. Industry Transformation: The AI Boom and Singapore's Strategic Position As one of the world's most trade-reliant economies, Singapore has played a major role in the global rollout of AI technologies. The city-state's specialized manufacturing sector has benefited significantly from the ongoing AI investment boom. The AI-related investment boom is powering the manufacturing sector, and unless the Singapore economy runs out of oil, strong activity in manufacturing will continue to drive growth, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research for ANZ. Future Outlook: Balancing Growth with Global Uncertainties Economists predict that the full impact of the Middle East crisis may become more apparent in Q2 2026, though the strong Q1 performance provides a solid foundation for the rest of the year. Local economists expect around 3.6 percent growth for 2026, acknowledging significant downside risks. The 6 percent year-on-year figure is strong, especially for a mature economy like Singapore, noted Yeow Hwee Chua, an economics professor at Nanyang Technological University. It is certainly encouraging, although I would interpret it with some caution given Singapore's high exposure to global demand and external conditions.

The recent UK heatwave has sent the prices of hot tubs, fans and portable air‑conditioners soaring, exposing how dynamic, demand‑driven pricing can quickly erode consumer savings on seasonal goods.Heatwave Fuels Rapid Price Hikes for Seasonal Cooling ProductsThe Guardian’s price‑tracking analysis on PriceRunner shows six of eleven heat‑related items hitting three‑month highs. The Bestway Lay‑Z‑Spa Cancún AirJet inflatable hot tub jumped from £160 on 21 May to a minimum of £299, nearly a 87% increase in just one week.Air‑conditioning units also surged: the Morphy Richards Flexi Freeze 12K BTU rose to £410 from £389 after 4 May, while the De’Longhi Pinguino Gentle Jet climbed to £689.95 from £659.99 within days.Price Swings Quantified: Hot Tub Near‑Doubling and 17% AC IncreaseInflatable hot tub price increase: ≈87% (from £160 to £299) in one week.Dyson Cool Tower fan up from £249.99 to £299 – a ≈20% rise.Portable air‑conditioners up ≈15‑17% since April, driven by shipping and raw‑material costs.Overall, six of eleven examined items are at three‑month price peaks.Dynamic Pricing Pressures UK Consumers Amid Rising DemandBuy It Direct Group chief executive Nick Glynne explains that retailers rely on algorithmic pricing, adjusting prices based on real‑time demand, supply chain bottlenecks and raw‑material volatility (notably oil‑driven plastic costs). Shipping rates can triple during peak periods, further inflating retail prices.Consumer expert Martyn James warns that businesses often pre‑empt heatwave forecasts by raising prices early, making “discounts” appear attractive while the baseline cost remains higher.What the Next Heatwave Could Mean for Retail Pricing StrategiesIf high‑temperature spells become more frequent, retailers may institutionalise higher price caps and automated alerts, pushing shoppers toward price‑tracking tools like CamelCamelCamel and PriceSpy. Expect tighter monitoring of supply‑chain indicators and more transparent RRP comparisons as consumers demand greater price certainty.