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On day 57 of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war, senior U.S. envoys are slated to travel to Pakistan for back‑channel talks, coinciding with the arrival of Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad. The diplomatic push occurs against a backdrop of frozen Iranian crypto assets, fresh sanctions, an expanded U.S. carrier presence in the Gulf, and tightening energy markets.US Envoys Set to Arrive in Pakistan Amid Stalled Iran NegotiationsSteve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will depart for Islamabad on Saturday to explore a possible return to the negotiating table.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already landed in Islamabad, signaling Pakistan’s role as a regional mediator.The talks come as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that Iran still has an “open window” to abandon its nuclear ambitions.Economic Leverage: $344 Million Crypto Freeze Targets IranThe Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, froze $344 million in cryptocurrency linked to Iranian entities to increase pressure amid energy‑supply disruptions.Washington also announced sanctions on a major China‑based refinery and roughly 40 shipping firms involved in moving Iranian oil.U.S. officials ruled out any extension of waivers for Russian or Iranian oil transits, tightening the financial squeeze.Regional Diplomatic Activity and Military PosturingEuropean Council President Antonio Costa called for the immediate, unrestricted reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Pakistan’s mediators expressed “cautious optimism,” noting signs of progress despite the lack of concrete talks in Islamabad.In the Gulf, two drones launched from Iraq struck northern Kuwaiti border posts, prompting an Iraqi investigation.The U.S. now has three aircraft carriers operating in the Middle East—the first such concentration since the 2003 Iraq invasion.Energy Markets React: Oil, Gas, and Market TightnessThe International Energy Agency warned that liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets will remain “tight” through 2026‑2027.Brent crude edged above $105 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $94.40.The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, hitting an all‑time high as investors priced in both risk and the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough.What Comes Next? Scenarios for De‑Escalation or Further ConflictOptimistic scenario: Successful Pakistan‑facilitated talks lead to a renewed nuclear‑non‑proliferation framework and a phased lifting of sanctions.Stalemate scenario: Negotiations stall, prompting the U.S. to increase economic pressure and maintain its carrier presence, risking further regional confrontations.Escalation scenario: Failure to reopen Hormuz or a misstep in the Gulf could trigger broader military engagement, driving oil prices higher and deepening market volatility.

The United States Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on Cambodian senator Kok An, accusing him of shielding a network that lures U.S. citizens into fraudulent digital‑asset schemes.Sanction Announcement Targets Senator and 28 Alleged AccomplicesThe Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) named Kok An and 28 individuals and entities linked to his operation. According to the statement, the network uses "friendship or romantic" lures to coax vulnerable Americans into transferring savings in digital assets, promising high returns that never materialise.Scope of the Scam Industry: Numbers and Reach28 individuals and entities directly sanctioned alongside Kok An.United Nations estimates suggest up to 300,000 people may be entangled in Southeast Asian scam operations.Victims are often trafficked from Thailand to Myanmar or Cambodia under false employment promises.Regional Impact: Heightened Scrutiny on Southeast Asian Fraud HubsThe sanctions arrive as Cambodia’s parliament recently passed a law aimed at curbing cyber‑scams, reflecting mounting domestic and international pressure. Human‑rights experts warn that many fraud centres also function as forced‑labor camps, exploiting workers across borders.U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro emphasized that fraudsters will face “no impunity,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated that eliminating fraud remains a top priority for the administration.Looking Ahead: Anticipated Tightening of Cross‑Border EnforcementWith this sanction set, analysts expect further U.S. actions targeting financial conduits and political patrons in the region. The combination of legal pressure, new Cambodian legislation, and heightened diplomatic focus suggests a more aggressive stance against transnational scam networks in the coming months.

The Shift from Bombing to BlockadeDonald Trump’s decision to indefinitely shelve plans to bomb Iran’s bridges and power stations has left the conflict in a state of limbo, but that is anything but the truth. The kinetic theater of war has effectively moved from land to sea. The site of activity has switched to the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most significant geopolitical waterway, where both nations are vying to prove they can enforce their blockade more effectively than the other.A New Phase of Gunboat DiplomacyThis standoff represents a dangerous evolution into gunboat diplomacy. Iran is attempting to maintain its chokehold on the world economy by firing at and seizing commercial ships navigating the strait. Conversely, the United States is employing a more immediate economic strategy. Through a naval blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions enforcement, Washington aims to make the Iranian economy collapse as Tehran runs out of space to store oil it cannot export.Iran's Strategy: Seize commercial ships to signal control over global energy flows.US Strategy: Blockade Iranian ports to force storage capacity limits and economic collapse.Current Status: A trial of strength where both sides believe they have time on their side.The Economic Clock Ticking on Kharg IslandThe crux of the US strategy lies in the storage capacity of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has warned that in a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full, forcing the shutdown of fragile Iranian oil wells. This strategy is backed by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), which argues that forcing a shutdown could cause long-term reservoir damage.Storage Deadline: Iran’s storage is expected to be full by Sunday, April 26.Revenue Impact: Six outbound tankers carried approximately 10.7m barrels of crude, generating an estimated $910m (£670m) in revenue.Production Loss: Forced shutdowns could permanently eliminate 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day due to reservoir damage.Oil Price: Despite Trump’s messaging, oil remains above $100 a barrel, a key metric for Iran.Global Ripple Effects and Internal Iranian StrainThe pressure is being felt globally, from European treasuries to airline schedules. The cost of jet fuel has led to the cancellation of 20,000 Lufthansa flights, and the price of copper and even consumer goods like condoms has risen. However, the internal pressure on Iran is equally critical. The Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace commander, Majid Mousavi, has threatened neighboring countries, while the regime faces internal division and a population exhausted by war. There are growing calls for a civil space for discussion within Iran, rather than leaving decisions to the security elite.The Endgame: Who Holds the Strategic Advantage?The prediction for the immediate future is a stalemate where both sides wait for the other to blink. The US is betting on the fragility of the Iranian leadership and the economic pain of its citizens, while Iran is betting on its resilience and the global dependence on Middle Eastern oil. The Strait of Hormuz remains a volatile flashpoint, with the potential for escalation into cyber warfare or further maritime incidents as the deadline for storage capacity approaches.

Allies Request US Currency Swap Lines Amid Middle East TensionsScott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, told Senate Appropriations Committee that several Gulf and Asian partners have asked for dollar swap facilities to cushion the fallout from the US‑Israel war on Iran and related energy shocks.Requests include the United Arab Emirates and unnamed Asian central banks.Swap lines would allow foreign central banks to exchange local currency for US dollars, providing liquidity in volatile markets.Scale of Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and Past Swap DeploymentsThe Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) holds roughly $219 billion, a pool that can back swap arrangements.October 2025: $20 billion swap with Argentina to support the peso during elections.COVID‑19 era: Fed‑led swaps to Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Singapore (no dollar amounts disclosed).Senator Chris Van Hollen cited “over $1 billion a day in taxpayer money” as a potential cost driver.Geopolitical Ripple Effects: US‑UAE Ties and Market StabilityCritics argue the swap could be a diplomatic signal, linking financial support to broader US‑UAE cooperation in AI, defense, and crypto ventures.UAE’s recent $500 million investment in World Liberty Financial, a Trump‑linked crypto firm.UAE’s use of a $2 billion stablecoin to invest in Binance, previously pardoned by former President Trump.Potential perception that the swap rewards a partner with close ties to the Trump family.Outlook: Likelihood of New Swap Approvals and Market ConsequencesWhile the Federal Reserve traditionally authorizes swap lines, the Treasury has precedent for acting independently (Argentina case). Analysts see two scenarios:Approval path: Treasury leverages ESF, the Fed remains passive, and the swap stabilises Gulf and Asian markets, reducing pressure on oil prices.Rejection path: Fed Board blocks the line, prompting market volatility and higher borrowing costs for the requesting nations.Future hearings and congressional scrutiny will likely shape the final decision, with potential spill‑over effects on US‑Middle East diplomatic dynamics.

The Lead: Trump's Economic CalculusThe airport in Las Vegas last Friday afternoon was what you might expect for a WrestleMania weekend. Packed terminal. Delays stacking up. Nobody going anywhere. Then we heard why. Air Force One was on the ground. Everything stopped. No one was taking off until the president finished doing his business.People were doing what people do. Checking their phones. Standing up like something might have changed. Sitting back down when it hadn't. When Air Force One finally started moving, a few people across Terminal B jumped to their feet. Plenty of us, myself included, didn't. I sat staring the opposite way, where I could clearly read the president's name atop his Vegas hotel. Power moves. The rest of us wait.The Political Strategy: Narrowing EmpathySitting in that terminal, it didn't feel like a theory. Trump and the movement around him understand this very human limitation well enough to exploit it. For more than a decade now, they have run a politics of deliberate narrowing. They tell us to distrust the press that extends our vision, distrust the institutions that ask us to consider strangers, and distrust empathy itself as weakness. The same people who wrap themselves in scripture and spectacle tell us it is naïve to care about those you will never meet.Now Trump needs that same public to hold a war in its moral imagination. Traveling home to Cleveland for my uncle's funeral, I had been thinking about a quick Sunday drive to Pittsburgh to visit family and my mother's grave. I decided against it. Didn't even rent the car. Gas prices were a main reason why. That isn't a rhetorical device. That's just what's true.The Economic Impact: Gas Prices as Political BarometerGas is averaging a little more than $4 per gallon nationally, more than a dollar higher than before the war began. In the Bay Area, I'm paying nearly $7 per gallon. This time last year, the national average was a little more than $3, and we thought that was high. Trump's reckless war shows up for most Americans as a number at a gas pump, not as images or moral reckoning. The war arrives in our wallets. As a calculation about whether a trip is worth making, or whether a car is worth using at all. As pressure, immediate and cumulative, it worms its way into the margins of a life.That ledger extends well beyond our shores. The same oil shock Americans feel at the pump is devastating economies that have far less cushion to absorb it. The bombing of a girls' school in Iran, believed to be caused by the US, was a war crime. As we see from our own school shootings, though, kids dying doesn't hold the attention of the American news consumer quite like gas prices. That is an indictment of us all, but our line of sight is partly to blame. Even worse, the aperture did not narrow on its own.The Political Consequences: The Instrument That Built TrumpAmericans don't need a moral case against this war. They have a gas receipt. Trump is being undone by the instrument he built. The movement that spent years training people not to extend their concern beyond the visible is now being judged exactly the way it taught people to judge everything else – by what it costs me, now, this week, at this pump.The numbers reflect that. Foreign policy barely registers as the public's top concern. Gas prices do. So do grocery bills, housing costs and healthcare. The White House understands this, which is why it no longer explains the war in terms of what it destroys. It explains the war in terms of when gas prices come down. The administration has not even been able to keep its own story straight about when that pain ends. The treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, predicted $3 gas by summer. On Sunday, energy secretary Chris Wright said we might not hit that rate until 2027. Trump then said that was "totally wrong", but who is to say?The Future Outlook: Beyond Economic ReliefSo let me say this plainly: if gas prices come down and Trump's ratings rebound, that will not mean this was worth it. It will mean the trick worked. Trump breaks something that was functioning, extracts an enormous cost in money and blood and moral credibility, halfway fixes it through belated and chaotic diplomacy, and claims victory. The country, exhausted and relieved, exhales. Moves on. I imagine that is what the administration is counting on.Back in Las Vegas, Air Force One eventually lifted off. The runway cleared. Flights resumed. Within the hour, most of that terminal had boarded, found their seats, and was somewhere over the desert, drinks in hand, the delay mostly forgotten. That's the mechanism. The pain recedes, and we let it take the memory with it. Power moved. The rest of us waited, paid, adjusted, and got on with it. Don't. Not this time.Remember the math you did at the pump, or the trip you reconsidered. This didn't have to happen. None of us ever had to pay this cost at all, even though the people responsible are already telling us that it was worth it. The price of gas may yet come down. That isn't accountability, though. It isn't a reckoning. We may have the privilege of worrying about such things, but we don't have the luxury of forgetting.

The NSA is reportedly employing Mythos Preview, a frontier AI model from Anthropic built for cybersecurity tasks, despite a recent Department of Defense warning that labeled the company a "supply chain risk." The move highlights a growing tension between U.S. intelligence agencies seeking advanced AI tools and the Pentagon’s caution over uncontrolled access. Key Developments Anthropic announced Mythos in early 2026 as a model capable of both defensive and offensive cyber operations. Anthropic limited access to roughly 40 organizations, publicly naming only a dozen. The NSA is among the undisclosed recipients, using the model primarily to scan environments for exploitable vulnerabilities. The UK’s AI Security Institute also confirmed access to Mythos. The Pentagon’s dispute began when Anthropic refused to make its flagship model Claude available for mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons development. Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei met with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on 2026-04-20, signaling a thaw in relations with the Trump administration. Data & Market Impact Access limited to ~40 entities represents a highly exclusive market segment for AI‑driven cyber tools. Anthropic’s decision to withhold public release suggests a valuation of security over scale, potentially positioning the firm as a premium supplier to government and critical‑infrastructure clients. By restricting the model, Anthropic avoids the broader market risk of misuse, but also cedes commercial revenue that a public rollout could generate. Why This Matters Provides the NSA with a cutting‑edge capability to identify zero‑day vulnerabilities faster than traditional tools. Highlights a policy paradox: the same AI that the Pentagon deems a supply‑chain threat is being leveraged by a key intelligence agency. Sets a precedent for selective government access to powerful AI models, potentially widening the gap between public and classified AI capabilities. Raises concerns for private sector and allied nations about the diffusion of offensive‑capable AI tools. Expert Insight Security analysts view the NSA’s adoption of Mythos as a pragmatic response to the accelerating pace of cyber threats. The model’s ability to parse massive codebases and simulate attack vectors offers a force multiplier for vulnerability research. However, the Pentagon’s supply‑chain warning underscores the risk that such a model could be reverse‑engineered or leaked, enabling adversaries to weaponize the same capabilities. Anthropic’s refusal to grant unrestricted Pentagon access likely stems from a desire to retain control over the model’s most destructive functions, preserving both ethical standing and commercial leverage. What Happens Next Congressional oversight may intensify, potentially mandating stricter reporting on AI tools used by intelligence agencies. Anthropic could expand the limited‑access program, offering tiered licensing to other vetted government bodies while maintaining a public “research‑only” version. The Pentagon may pursue its own in‑house AI development to reduce reliance on external vendors deemed risky. International allies, especially the UK, may seek similar access, prompting coordinated policy frameworks for AI security collaboration.

Analysts warn that the world is confronting the most severe energy shock since the 1970s, a looming global recession and a renewed surge in living‑cost pressures that are hitting the most vulnerable households hardest.Against a backdrop of sweltering Washington heat, the atmosphere at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings shifted dramatically as delegates confronted the fallout from the Iran war. The usual optimism about rising living standards was replaced by a palpable sense of unease.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addressed finance ministers and central‑bank governors, noting that “some countries are in panic” and urging that “the sooner it ends, the better for everybody.”Such gatherings are rarely venues for open geopolitical confrontation. Yet, as a record‑breaking April heatwave baked the capital, the mounting economic damage from the conflict could no longer be ignored.During a G20 breakfast that included U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, participants described the mood as somber, with frank discussions about the war’s ramifications.Former IMF deputy managing director Mohamed El‑Erian likened the session to a “twilight‑zone meeting,” identifying three looming shadows: the overall health of the global economy, the disproportionate impact on lesser‑discussed nations, and the paradox that the United States, as the war’s initiator, would suffer comparatively less.British Chancellor Rachel Reeves started her day with a jog alongside counterparts from Spain, Australia and New Zealand on the National Mall, posting an Instagram selfie captioned, “Friends that run together – work together.” The image underscored her resolve to confront the war’s economic fallout.Reeves had earlier condemned the conflict as a “mistake” and “folly,” arguing that the war had not enhanced global security and was driving up energy prices for UK families and businesses.In a one‑on‑one with Bessent near the White House, Reeves emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting that the UK, like many other nations, was feeling the pain of higher energy costs triggered by the conflict.Despite the tension, the UK and the United States continue to share deep interests in artificial intelligence, financial services and trade, though the British government signalled little tolerance for the Iranian regime.The IMF’s own warning that the war could precipitate a global recession singled out the United Kingdom as the “biggest G7 casualty,” highlighting the stakes for British growth forecasts.Observers noted Reeves’s vocal stance, recalling earlier disagreements between Bessent and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde that had remained behind closed doors.A cocktail reception at the British ambassador’s residence brought together senior diplomats and financiers—including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan—where transatlantic friction was a hot topic, just weeks before King Charles’s state visit to the United States.Meanwhile, revelations about former ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process added another layer of political strain for the UK government.Before the war, the IMF agenda focused on global cooperation, AI adoption, job creation and poverty eradication. The conflict has now complicated each of these priorities, especially the goal of coordinated international action.Former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband observed that many nations are now “hedging against American decisions,” acknowledging the United States’ outsized role—about 25% of the global economy—while noting its recent retreat from several forums.The irony was not lost on participants: the meetings were held in institutions born out of U.S. leadership after World War II to prevent the economic chaos of the 1930s, yet they now convene amid a war that threatens similar turmoil.Economists also recognized that real policy leverage sits “two blocks away,” behind the security cordons surrounding the White House, casting doubt on the ability of the IMF and World Bank to influence the conflict directly.Amid the uncertainty, the rapid growth of AI—exemplified by Anthropic’s Mythos model—offers a glimmer of economic resilience, but most countries cannot afford to sever ties with the United States entirely.El‑Erian summed up the dilemma: “People want to go long the private sector and short the mess, but it’s almost impossible to do.”

Washington, D.C. – The U.S. Senate voted 47‑52 to reject a resolution that would have limited President Donald Trump’s power to wage war against Iran, marking the fourth defeat of the measure despite weekly attempts by lawmakers. The vote follows a two‑week ceasefire agreed upon last week, though subsequent negotiations in Islamabad failed to produce a longer‑term deal. Both sides have indicated openness to a second round of talks. President Trump’s earlier threats, including a statement on April 7 that a “whole civilisation will die tonight,” intensified congressional calls for constraints on his war‑making authority. Party lines largely dictated the outcome: Republican Rand Paul voted in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman broke with his party to oppose the resolution. Supporters argue that Trump acted beyond constitutional limits when he joined Israel in launching the February 28 offensive. The U.S. Constitution reserves the declaration of war for Congress, allowing presidents to act unilaterally only in cases of immediate self‑defence. Senator Chris Murphy, speaking before the vote, described the conflict as a “bungled, mismanaged war” that has failed to meet the administration’s objectives. He criticized the lack of transparency and oversight, noting that the war is costing “billions of dollars every week,” has claimed “over a dozen American lives,” and is destabilising economies worldwide. Republican Senator Jim Risch defended Trump’s actions, dismissing the resolution as “same old, same old” and asserting that the president has both the right and duty to act. The House of Representatives is slated to consider its own war‑powers resolution this week, with a higher likelihood of passage given growing wariness among some Republicans. Even if both chambers approved the measure, Trump could veto it, requiring a two‑thirds supermajority to override. Under the War Powers Act of 1973, Congress must either authorize the military action or approve a 30‑day extension when the conflict reaches its 60‑day mark at the end of April. Failure to do so would legally compel the president to begin withdrawing forces. U.S. blockade updates: U.S. Central Command reported that no vessels have successfully breached the blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours, with nine ships complying with orders to turn back. The U.S. Navy warned that vessels attempting to transit will be boarded for interdiction and seizure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a forthcoming set of financial measures described as the “financial equivalent” of military attacks, while noting that some sanctions had been lifted to ease soaring global energy prices. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the administration has not formally requested an extension of the ceasefire, which is set to expire next week, but expressed optimism about a second round of talks in Islamabad. Iran’s state‑run television reported that a high‑level Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran to coordinate new negotiations. Meanwhile, Major‑General Ali Abdollahi of the IRGC warned that the ongoing naval blockade could jeopardise the fragile ceasefire, describing it as a “prelude to a violation of the ceasefire.”

Goldman Sachs's chief executive, David Solomon, has expressed heightened awareness of the capabilities of Anthropic's Mythos AI model and is collaborating closely with the tech firm following warnings about the cybersecurity risk it poses.The US bank has been closely monitoring the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, including large language models (LLMs), as part of broader efforts to protect itself from hackers.“Obviously the LLMs are making rapid progress and we’re hyper-aware of the enhanced capabilities of these new models with the help of the US government and the model publishers,” Solomon told analysts on an earnings call on Monday.Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of AI tools, claimed last week that its latest model, Mythos, posed an unprecedented risk due to its ability to expose flaws in IT systems. The company warned that AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.Solomon emphasized that Goldman Sachs is working closely with Anthropic and all of its security vendors to harness frontier capabilities. “We are very focused on supplementing our cyber and infrastructure resilience. And this is part of our ongoing capabilities that we have been investing in, and are accelerating our investment in.”The news comes after the US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, summoned Solomon and other big American bankers to Washington to discuss the Mythos model last week. The meeting focused on heads of so-called systemically important banks, where regulators believe that a major disruption to their operations, or their potential collapse, would put financial stability at risk.On Monday, the UK government’s AI Security Institute (AISI) warned that Mythos was a “step up” over previous models in terms of the cyber threat it posed. AISI said Mythos could carry out attacks that required multiple actions and discover weaknesses in IT systems without human intervention.