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The IMF has cautioned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, poses a substantial risk to global economic stability. The fund's half-yearly fiscal monitor report highlights that global debt levels are on track to increase due to the war's impact on energy and food prices, higher government borrowing costs, and slower economic growth.Against this volatile backdrop, the IMF has warned that governments may be forced to choose between cushioning the cost of living shock and maintaining sound public finances. The fund's report notes that global debt levels have already risen to almost 94% of GDP and are projected to reach 100% by 2029, a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II.The IMF emphasizes that any energy support schemes to shield households and businesses from the impact of higher energy prices should be targeted and temporary, focusing on those most exposed and least able to absorb price increases. The fund also cautions against using further borrowing to cushion the blow, suggesting that governments should instead reallocate spending within existing limits and prioritize crisis-related spending.The report highlights the risks associated with higher debt and interest costs, which could eventually force governments to make tougher choices or destabilize debt markets. The IMF points to the UK's experience with Liz Truss's 2022 mini-budget as an example of how market confidence can be lost when fiscal policies are perceived as unsustainable.

In a stark address delivered as the cease‑fire in the Iran conflict teetered, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, slowing growth beyond the IMF’s original projections for 2026. Georgieva noted that, had the hostilities not erupted six weeks ago, the Fund would have been poised to raise its 2026 growth outlook. Instead, even the most optimistic scenario now entails a downgrade, and a swift return to pre‑war conditions appears unlikely. The uncertainty surrounding the cease‑fire—exacerbated by divergent positions of Washington and Tehran—has already pushed oil prices higher, reflecting fears of continued disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for world energy supplies. According to the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook, the conflict’s “scarring effects” will translate into lower living standards worldwide. The Fund had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a modest slowdown from 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a tech‑driven investment surge. Georgieva emphasized that the war arrived when the economy was riding “considerable momentum” from technology investment and supportive financial markets. She outlined the mechanisms of damage: damaged infrastructure, supply‑chain interruptions, eroded confidence, and prolonged uncertainty over oil and gas production in the region. These factors will depress growth regardless of whether a peace agreement is ultimately reached. Georgieva highlighted that the most vulnerable will be net oil‑importing nations, poorer economies and small island states, which stand to feel the brunt of higher energy costs and reduced trade flows. She urged governments to avoid unilateral measures such as export bans or price controls, warning that such actions could "pour gasoline on the fire" and further destabilise markets. With many countries already carrying elevated debt levels and higher borrowing costs, the IMF chief called for targeted, temporary assistance to protect the most at‑risk households. She cautioned against broad tax cuts or blanket energy subsidies, which could stoke inflation and strain fragile public finances. Central banks, she added, should keep policy rates steady while remaining ready to act against inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also chairs the Financial Stability Board, echoed the IMF’s concerns, describing the conflict as a "very big shock" that has heightened market volatility. He stressed that the situation remains fluid and that policymakers must stay vigilant. Overall, the IMF’s message is clear: the Iran war will reshape the global growth trajectory for the foreseeable future, and coordinated, prudent policy responses are essential to mitigate its lasting impact.