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The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to a decrease in UK interest rate hike expectations. City traders now predict only one rate rise by December, taking the Bank of England's base rate back to 4%. Previously, markets had priced in two rate hikes as tensions escalated, with Donald Trump warning of severe consequences if Iran did not comply with his demands. However, with the ceasefire in place, rate expectations have fallen, and only 32 basis points of hikes are now expected for the year, down from 62 basis points the previous day. The decline in rate expectations is linked to the significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude down 13.3% to $94.71 a barrel. This decrease in oil prices could bring relief to UK consumers, potentially leading to lower petrol prices and easing inflationary pressures. Despite the current relief, experts caution that mortgage rates may not fall quickly. The average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to 5.90%, the highest since July 2024. Analysts suggest that while the ceasefire may slow or pause mortgage rate increases, it is unlikely to trigger sharp falls. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, notes that the ceasefire brings relief for UK consumers but emphasizes that the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of England have been reduced. He adds that the 'heady days' of sustained rate cuts are unlikely to return in the short term. Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, advises that while easing tensions have pushed down expectations for future interest rate rises, mortgage rates are likely to remain higher for some time yet, with lenders cautious about making sudden moves due to market volatility.

The US-Iran conflict has taken a dire turn as President Donald Trump threatens to destroy Iran's power plants, bridges, and other vital civilian infrastructure if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that such actions will only prolong and expand the conflict, which has already entered its sixth week.Naveed Shah, political director at Common Defense, an advocacy group led by US military veterans, cautioned that if the regional war is not brought to an end soon, “there’s no end in sight as to how far” it will spread. Shah emphasized that attacking infrastructure will not end the war faster, but rather make it go on much longer.Iran has warned of severe retaliation if its civilian infrastructure is attacked, potentially targeting energy and power facilities across the region, which could further raise oil and gas prices. Several Iranian officials have ruled out reopening the Strait of Hormuz under Trump's threats.Brian Finucane, an analyst at the International Crisis Group and former adviser at the US Department of State, stated that attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran are unlikely to help Trump achieve his goals, namely reopening Hormuz. “It’s hard to see this lead to some quick US victory,” Finucane said.The supply pressure from closing Hormuz is being felt in the US, where petrol prices have gone up to more than $4.11 per gallon from less than $3 before the war. Finucane noted that escalating attacks against Iran and having Iran escalate attacks against its neighbors is a recipe for “even higher gas prices.”Trump has set a deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz or face widespread destruction, threatening that the “whole civilisation will die” after the deadline passes. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari warned that prolonging the war benefits no one and could take the conflict to a point where it cannot be controlled.Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said more threats and attacks by Trump will only lead to more resistance by Iran. “Maximum pressure has not produced surrender from Iran since the first term of President Trump,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

In the face of rising fuel costs, Sydney commuters are increasingly turning to bicycles as a viable alternative for their daily commutes. This shift is reminiscent of Copenhagen's response to the 1970s global oil crisis, where the city dramatically expanded its bicycle network.Recent data shows a significant increase in cycling activity in Sydney. In March, there were 600,000 bike-sharing trips in the City of Sydney, a 25% increase from the previous month. Additionally, thousands of cars have disappeared from Sydney's roads, with car traffic falling by around 5% in March compared to the previous year on major arterial roads.The surge in cycling is also reflected in the sales of electric bikes. At 99 Bikes, ebike sales have surged by 136% year on year in the past week. Bike retailers are experiencing booming business, with many customers citing high petrol prices as the reason for purchasing a bicycle or ebike.According to Australian Automobile Association (AAA) data, in the last quarter of 2025, the average Australian household spent about $453 per week on car-running costs. With unleaded petrol prices peaking at almost 260c per litre in April, a 50% increase from last year, the financial incentive for switching to bicycles is clear.Experts see this trend as an opportunity for a green revolution in transportation. Peter McLean, the CEO of Bicycle NSW, suggests that governments should capitalize on the cycling boon by investing heavily in active transport infrastructure rather than relying on short-term fuel excises.

Australia’s recent fuel squeeze is reshaping the second‑hand car market, with used electric vehicles (EVs) now commanding higher prices while traditional petrol and diesel models face steep discounts.MotorMetrics’ live inventory data shows that dealers have lifted prices on a range of EVs, most notably a more than 6% increase for the Tesla Model Y during the final two weeks of March. Similar upward pressure is evident for the Model 3, MG4 and Polestar 2, indicating dealer confidence that new stock will settle at these elevated levels.At the same time, the supply of used EVs is tightening, creating a classic demand‑supply imbalance that fuels price growth.Conversely, the same data reveal that many used diesel and petrol vehicles have been slashed by as much as 20%, reflecting a rapid shift in consumer preference toward electric power as fuel costs climb.Rental platform Turo reports a 70% jump in bookings for EVs and hybrids compared with the same period last year. Managing director Rob Chan describes the surge as a “unique wave of consumer interest” reminiscent only of the post‑pandemic “revenge travel” boom.Australia’s EV fleet is expanding steadily; the Electric Vehicle Council estimates that over 454,000 battery‑electric and plug‑in hybrid vehicles were on the road at the end of 2025, giving EVs roughly 13% of new car purchases. Analysts expect this share to rise further as more models enter the market and charging infrastructure improves.Economist Peter Esho warns that while oil shocks are not new, this one “could very well be one of the last”, as the current price environment makes EVs a financially sensible alternative for many drivers.Petrol prices rose almost daily throughout March across major cities, only easing after a government fuel‑excise cut. In parallel, Commonwealth Bank data shows a 161% increase in weekly loan volume for new battery‑electric vehicles in March versus February, underscoring growing consumer financing for EVs.Individual stories echo the broader trend. Sydney motorist Har Rai Singh, who rented several EVs through Turo to test long‑distance capability, says he now sees little reason to stick with a combustion engine, noting that “people are waiting for petrol pumps and paying over $100 to fill a tank – it doesn’t make sense any more to hold on to a combustion engine.”

Fuel prices in Northern Ireland have experienced the sharpest increase in the UK since the beginning of the Iran war. Petrol prices have jumped by 19% and diesel by 35% since the end of February. A 50-litre tank now costs an average of £75 for petrol and £91 for diesel, up from £63 for petrol and £67 for diesel on 28 February.Northern Ireland previously had some of the lowest fuel prices in the UK due to tighter competition and links to Ireland. However, the gap with other regions has narrowed, with prices remaining the lowest in the UK. Across the UK, fuel prices continue to rise as the Middle East conflict shows no sign of de-escalation. Petrol prices have jumped by 16% and diesel by 30% since the start of the war.Analysis of Eurostat and UK government data reveals that only seven other European countries have recorded larger increases in petrol prices than Northern Ireland. The pattern is similar for diesel, with prices jumping by up to 44% in Estonia. In the UK, the north has seen the sharpest increase in petrol prices among English regions, with drivers paying an average of 154p a litre, up 17% from 132p a litre on the day the war broke out.Price increases in rural areas are similar to urban areas, but data shows that at least 100 stations in mostly rural parts of England and Scotland are charging between 180p and 210p a litre for petrol. The average petrol price for 10 major retailers has risen sharply, with Shell petrol stations charging an average of 158p a litre for standard unleaded petrol.Simon Williams, head of policy at the motoring services company RAC, said: “Drivers hitting the roads this Easter weekend will be faced with some truly eye-watering fuel prices.” Separate official data analysed by RAC showed that petrol prices have gone up nearly 22p a litre – or 16% – to an average of 154.45p since the beginning of the war.

Richard Walker, executive chair of the Iceland supermarket chain and Labour’s appointed cost‑of‑living tsar, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the government should extend the 5‑pence fuel duty cut beyond its September expiry to cushion households from soaring petrol prices. The call comes as the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil—remains blockaded after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. The disruption has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, intensifying pressure on the UK economy. Under current policy, UK fuel duty is frozen until September, when a review is scheduled. By contrast, Australia recently announced a 14‑pence‑per‑litre cut to its fuel tax, highlighting the disparity with the UK’s modest 5‑pence reduction. Walker emphasized on air: “Given where we are, we need to be thinking about extending or enlarging the existing cut.” He noted that the original 5‑pence reduction was introduced by the Conservative government in March 2022. Chancellor Rachel Reeves had pledged in her November budget to keep the cut in place until August, followed by a gradual increase over five years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signalled that the planned September rise will remain “under review” in light of the ongoing conflict. Data from the RAC shows that, since the war began, the average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts has jumped 30 % to 185.2 pence, while petrol has risen 16 % to 154.5 pence per litre. Opposition parties are also weighing in: the Conservatives propose scrapping VAT on energy bills for several years, Reform UK calls for a VAT cut on fuel, and the Liberal Democrats advocate a 10‑pence fuel duty reduction.

Former Labour adviser Polly Billington – who served under Gordon Brown – has urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to organise a global energy summit of the scale and urgency that marked the UK’s 2008 financial‑crisis intervention. She argues that the fallout from the US‑Israeli war on Iran is creating an energy shock “as big as the financial crash”, demanding a response of equal magnitude. Billington warned that the economic pain from soaring energy prices is “hurtling down the tracks”, threatening living standards and providing fertile ground for extremist politics. She stresses that the price surge will be neither temporary nor confined to a single region. While she praised the government’s initiative to bring together 35 nations to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Billington insists that a broader, coordinated effort is required to stabilise energy markets, protect supply chains, and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. “We could be bringing together allies to agree emergency cooperation to stabilise energy markets, protect supply chains, coordinate strategic reserves, and accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels,” she told The Guardian. “Energy security is inseparable from global security; otherwise we face a ‘Hunger Games’ world of resource conflict, scarcity and coercion.” Her call comes amid growing unease among Labour MPs who fear the government is under‑reacting to the domestic impact of the war. Rising petrol prices, higher energy bills and inflation are already prompting concerns about electoral repercussions. At a recent press conference, the Prime Minister announced that the Treasury is drafting targeted support for households most affected by energy costs, should the conflict persist. Yet opposition parties are pushing divergent solutions: Reform UK and the Conservatives advocate increased domestic drilling, the Liberal Democrats propose a 10p fuel‑duty cut and VAT relief for electric‑vehicle charging, while the Greens call for universal energy‑bill support. The Scottish National Party demanded an emergency parliamentary recall, accusing the government of “sleepwalking into a crisis”. Billington argues that a true “war‑footing” approach must focus on reducing Britain’s reliance on fossil fuels. She praises the Treasury’s decision to avoid a blanket bailout, suggesting instead that households install plug‑in solar panels on balconies and gardens – likening them to Anderson shelters in the Second World War – to bolster collective resilience and lower bills. She adds that no policy option should be dismissed as “too radical”, urging the government to consider all measures that could cut exposure to gas and oil. Another Labour MP echoed the sentiment, stating that merely highlighting bill reductions is insufficient when headlines indicate that prices are set to rise sharply due to the Iran conflict. “I want to hear a concrete Labour plan,” he said. On Thursday, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey branded the rising fuel costs a “Trump‑Farage‑Badenoch tax”, calling for immediate action to mitigate the economic fallout of the war and keep Britain moving.

Cuba's tourism industry, once a pillar of the country's economy, is reeling from the effects of the US oil blockade imposed in January. The blockade has led to a significant decline in visitors, with only 1.6 million tourists visiting the island from January to November last year, a drop from its 2018 peak of 4.8 million.The decline in tourism has had a devastating impact on the livelihoods of Cubans who rely on the industry for their income. Taxi driver Rainier Hernandez, 38, used to work upwards of six hours a day ferrying tourists around Havana, but now he is lucky to get one or two hours of paid work in a day.The economic momentum has sputtered in recent years, a trend accelerated by a recent spike in tensions between the US and Cuba. The blockade has pushed petrol prices up to $12 per litre ($45.36 per gallon) and led the government to cancel nearly all public transport options.Tour guides like Carlos Fariñas, 29, are struggling to make ends meet, with some considering leaving the island in search of better opportunities. 'If there is no tourism, there is no economy,' Fariñas said.The situation has become so dire that some Cubans are worried about losing their homes, as the collapse of the tourism industry could cost them the very roof over their heads. 'I would die of hunger' if I had to wait for tourists to return, said Alejandro Ricardo, 26, who manages an Airbnb in Havana.The US oil blockade has had far-reaching consequences for Cuba's economy, with the country's tourism industry accounting for nearly 12 percent of its GDP at its height in the late 2010s. The blockade has left many Cubans uncertain about their future on the island, as they struggle to afford necessities.

President Donald Trump has made a bold statement regarding the ongoing conflict with Iran, suggesting that the US could potentially end the war within two to three weeks. He emphasized that a deal is not a prerequisite for the US to withdraw from the conflict, indicating a possible shift in his diplomatic approach.Trump's comments come amid rising tensions and escalating energy prices, with domestic petrol prices in the US jumping past an average of $4 a gallon. The conflict has disrupted energy supplies and shaken the global economy, with Iran's attacks on Gulf oil facilities and its continued control over fuel supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas passes.In a surprising move, Trump has criticized allied countries for not providing sufficient support in the conflict. He took aim at countries like the UK, telling them to either buy US fuel or get involved in the rapidly escalating war. 'Go get your own oil!' he stated, emphasizing that the US wouldn't be there to help them anymore.Trump's statements have been met with caution by experts, who note that it would not be easy for him to simply walk out of a conflict that has spread across the region and resulted in thousands of deaths. Trita Parsi, a foreign policy expert, suggested that Trump's comments should be treated with skepticism, predicting that the timeline for the conflict would likely continue to be extended.The conflict has also drawn in other countries, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arguing that the war on Iran was 'definitely beyond the halfway point.' The situation remains volatile, with experts warning that Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and potentially continue to target it.