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The recent ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran has brought a fragile calm to the region, but experts warn that energy prices may take months to normalize. The conflict had a significant impact on global oil and gas supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20% of the world's oil and gas exports pass.Iran's response to US-Israeli attacks included choking off the Strait of Hormuz and attacking energy infrastructure in several Gulf countries. This led to soaring prices for energy and byproducts like helium, as well as fertilizers that rely on these inputs, affecting sowing seasons and consumers worldwide, especially in developing countries.Experts stress that a predictable and stable flow of cargo through the strait is needed before markets can stabilize. Currently, only a trickle of vessels are passing through, with five vessels crossing on Wednesday and seven on Thursday, down from 120-140 ships per day before the conflict.Rockford Weitz, a professor at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, described the situation as 'the biggest disruption in the history of global oil markets.' He emphasized that normalization will take time and requires collaboration among global powers and regional players.Additionally, concerns remain about Iran charging toll fees and skyrocketing insurance fees, which could keep oil prices high. However, experts agree that these fees are not the primary cost drivers.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of a looming inflation crisis and plans to downgrade its forecast for the world economy. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, stated that growth will be slower, even if the new peace is durable.For now, oil prices are expected to remain higher than pre-war levels due to the overhang of greater risk premium of supplies out of the Gulf. The situation remains uncertain, with experts closely watching for any side deals, such as a potential agreement between Iraq and Iran, which could impact oil production and prices.

Saudi Arabia has halted operational activities at several energy facilities due to recent attacks, according to the Saudi Press Agency. The attacks targeted oil, gas, and electricity sites in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Yanbu Industrial City.The attacks resulted in the death of one Saudi national from the industrial security personnel of the Saudi energy company, with seven others injured. The attacks have reduced the kingdom's oil production capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day.The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, have faced repeated drone and missile attacks from Iran over recent weeks. These attacks have contributed to increased volatility in the oil market, affecting the security of supply for consuming countries.Oil prices have jumped upward as the world weighs the prospects of a shaky Iran-US ceasefire and possibly the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point that Iran has effectively blocked during the conflict.The ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, has been placed in doubt due to Israel's ongoing daily attacks on Lebanon and Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries. Several leaders around the world have called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters announced on Saturday that Iraqi ships are free to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for global energy supplies. This decision exempts Iraq from all restrictions in the strait, with controls only applying to 'enemy countries'.The announcement reflects Iran's easing of its stranglehold on the strait, which has been effectively blockaded since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28. Despite this, maritime traffic has seen an increase in recent weeks, with 53 transits recorded last week, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence.Iran's military command emphasized its 'profound respect for Iraq's national sovereignty' and praised Iraq's struggle against the US. This move comes in response to US President Donald Trump's demands for Tehran to make a deal or relinquish control of the waterway, warning that 'all hell' would ensue within 48 hours otherwise. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters rejected Trump's demand, calling it a 'helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action'. The blockade has significantly impacted global energy markets, pushing up fuel prices and prompting emergency energy conservation measures in many countries. Brent crude has hovered above $109 a barrel, with predictions of further price surges if the strait remains blocked. Iraq's oil production, which provides most of Baghdad's revenues, has been particularly affected, falling to 1.2 million barrels a day from 4.3 million barrels.

The US government's Endangered Species Committee has voted unanimously to exempt oil and gas drillers in the Gulf of Mexico from protections under the Endangered Species Act. This decision, made during a rare meeting, has significant implications for vulnerable species in the region.The committee, composed of six senior Trump officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, argued that environmental rules could hinder US energy production, particularly during the ongoing tensions with Iran. Hegseth stated that disruptions to Gulf oil production would not only affect the US but also benefit its adversaries.The exemption is only the fourth time in US history that the Endangered Species Committee has convened, and the third time it has granted an exemption to the Endangered Species Act. Rice's whale, with only about 50 remaining, is one of the species protected by the act in the Gulf of Mexico. Other species, such as birds, sea turtles, and Gulf sturgeon, are also safeguarded.Environmental groups have strongly objected to the decision, labeling the committee a 'god squad' due to its power over species' existence. They plan to challenge the exemptions, arguing that the Trump administration failed to follow the protocols set out under the Endangered Species Act and that the rationale for the exemption is not justified by facts.This move is part of the Trump administration's broader effort to roll back environmental protections and promote pro-fossil fuel policies, despite dismissing climate change as a 'hoax'. Critics warn that this action could lead to the extinction of species, with one expert stating that Trump could be the first person in history to knowingly extirpate a species from the face of the earth.

BP's new chief executive, Meg O'Neill, has told staff that the oil giant is operating in a world of significant complexity, marked by geopolitical tensions, conflict, rapid technological change, and shifting global energy demand. In her first message to employees, O'Neill promised a clear direction and consistency after a tumultuous period for the 117-year-old fossil fuel company. This period has seen BP pivot away from a failing green strategy and experience leadership changes. O'Neill, BP's third CEO in under five years, takes the helm during a critical time, with the ongoing Iran war triggering the global industry's biggest supply shock. She emphasized the company's role in delivering energy safely, reliably, and efficiently. The company previously aimed to cut its oil production this decade, which put BP at a financial disadvantage compared to other large oil companies like Shell when wholesale prices surged after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. O'Neill is expected to focus on making disciplined investments in new fossil fuel projects to revive BP's market value. This strategy comes as the Iran war has driven oil prices to near $118 a barrel and gas prices are at historic highs across Asia and Europe. BP's share price has reached an almost 16-year high amid the current geopolitical tensions. However, it saw a nearly 3.5% slump on Wednesday as Brent crude prices fell below $100 a barrel. In her memo, O'Neill expressed her excitement about BP's next chapter, highlighting the company's strength, remarkable people, and world-class assets. She emphasized BP's vital role in supplying energy to customers worldwide, underpinning economic growth and human development.

US President Donald Trump has stated that his 'preference would be to take the oil' in Iran, sparking concerns about the potential for a US invasion or occupation of the country. Iran is one of the world's biggest oil producers, holding around 24 percent of the Middle East's and 12 percent of the world's proven oil reserves, with about 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil.The Trump administration has threatened to target Iran's energy infrastructure, including oil wells, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been under a de facto Iranian blockade for weeks, triggering a global energy crisis. The US has also unveiled plans to prepare for limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz.Seizing Iranian oil would not be easy, as the US would have to occupy Iran's oil production sites and refineries, essentially occupying mainland Iran. However, if the US were to lift sanctions on Iranian oil after seizing it, it could lead to a flow of more Iranian oil into global markets, bringing down oil prices.The US-Israeli war on Iran has already sent global oil prices soaring, with benchmark Brent crude rising to more than 3 percent on Monday to $116 a barrel – the highest level in nearly two weeks. The oil price was about $65 per barrel before the war.In 2023, Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) was around $457.5bn, according to World Bank data. Iran's net oil export revenues were estimated at $53bn, equivalent to roughly 12 percent of Iran's GDP.This is not the first time the US has shown an interest in Iranian oil. In 1953, the government of Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran's first democratically elected prime minister, was toppled in a CIA-orchestrated coup after he nationalised the British-controlled firm Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), the predecessor of modern-day BP.