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The UK government's proposal to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling is unlikely to provide relief to consumers in the form of lower energy prices. Oil prices have surged to $100 a barrel following the US and Israel's attack on Iran, with potential increases to $150 a barrel due to supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz.Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative party, has introduced a plan to 'get Britain drilling' by opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. However, experts argue that this will not reduce energy bills for UK consumers. Oil and gas are sold on international markets, and prices are set globally, so there is no direct discount for UK consumers.The Conservative party has previously acknowledged this, but now suggests that tax reforms and removal of VAT on bills could deliver £200 cuts to household energy bills. The plan involves scrapping the windfall tax on North Sea producers, which has raised about £12bn so far.Critics argue that the windfall tax is essential and that removing it would not stimulate production significantly. The tax does not increase prices to consumers and has the support of the International Energy Agency.Analysis suggests that redirecting tax revenues from the North Sea back to consumers would have a minimal impact on bills. A study found that households would gain only about £16 a year if tax revenues from a maximally exploited North Sea were redistributed.Badenoch's claims about job creation in the North Sea are also disputed. The sector is declining, and geology, not politics, will dictate the future of North Sea oil and gas. Most of the UK's sector has already been drained, with only about 218m tonnes of oil recoverable by 2050 from existing fields.New drilling could add only 74m tonnes of oil and 1.1% to gas production, equivalent to putting off the end of the North Sea by a year or two. Job losses in the sector are a concern, with at least 70,000 jobs lost in the decade to 2024.Experts stress that renewable energy sources are a more secure and sustainable alternative. The UK should focus on creating conditions for clean energy infrastructure to attract investment and drive growth.

More drilling in the North Sea will not enhance the UK’s energy security, a group of former senior military leaders told The Guardian on Monday, as the Conservative Party’s energy minister Kemi Badenoch launched a campaign to revive offshore oil and gas licences. The veterans, including retired Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, a climate‑security professor at University College London, warned that extracting the remaining hydrocarbons “is not the answer” to the country’s rising energy costs and geopolitical vulnerability. Morisetti emphasized that global market forces, not domestic production, set fuel prices and that reliance on imports leaves the UK exposed to “structural chokepoints” such as the Strait of Hormuz or insurance withdrawals. He urged the government to focus on a rapid transition to a diversified mix of wind, solar, tidal and nuclear power, alongside a major renewal of the electricity grid and expanded storage capacity. A recent E3G think‑tank report supports this view, stating that “structural chokepoints” in oil and gas supply chains mean that increasing fossil‑fuel output anywhere does not improve national security. The report highlights that reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons through electrification, efficiency, and domestic clean energy offers the most durable protection against supply shocks. Maria Pastukhova, senior policy adviser at E3G, explained that while clean‑energy systems are not immune to disruptions, they shift control “under domestic ownership,” lowering exposure to geopolitical and market volatility. Data cited by the report show that the North Sea is a “mature basin” whose output has fallen 75 % since its peak. New licences granted between 2010 and 2024 have produced only 36 days of gas, according to research by the Uplift campaign and consultancy Voar, underscoring the limited impact of further drilling. Retired Lt Gen Richard Nugee compared the UK’s situation to recent developments in Spain, where electricity prices are increasingly set by renewables rather than fossil fuels, reducing dependence on vulnerable chokepoints. He argued that “going for renewables gives greater independence, greater sovereignty, less vulnerability to attack and more opportunity,” contrasting it with the finite and externally‑controlled nature of gas supplies. Experts such as Khem Rogaly of the Transition Security Project warn that reliance on “expensive and volatile fossil fuels” makes British households vulnerable to shocks from global conflicts, including US‑led oil wars. James Meadway, director of the Verdant think‑tank, added that the war in Iran has revealed the fragility of large, centralized power systems to both kinetic attacks and cyber‑threats, reinforcing the case for a more distributed energy architecture. In sum, the former military leaders and independent analysts concur that the only credible route to lasting UK energy security lies in **accelerating renewable deployment, improving efficiency, and modernising the grid**, rather than expanding North Sea drilling.