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The LeadRhetoric surrounding Sudan's ongoing war has escalated with both sides indicating preparedness for a decade-long conflict, with devastating humanitarian and economic consequences for the nation.Commanders' War DeclarationsRapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti," recently announced that his soldiers were prepared to keep fighting "until 2040 if necessary." His remarks came days after his rival and Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan vowed to keep fighting until Sudan was "cleansed" of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033.Both sides increasingly appear to view the war as a long-term struggle for survival and control of Sudan, with UNDP Sudan Representative Luca Renda cautioning that "the longer the war continues, the greater the misery," describing the conflict as "the economics of suffering."Humanitarian CatastropheAccording to a joint report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Institute for Security Studies, more than 150,000 people have been killed since fighting began in 2023. Nearly 15 million people have been displaced, up to 24 million face food shortages and at least 19 million lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation.The report warns that Sudan's state institutions are on the verge of total collapse, with governance paralysed, healthcare and education systems shattered, markets destroyed, and production in agriculture, manufacturing and services severely weakened.Economic DevastationThe report projects that under a "Protracted Conflict" scenario with the war lasting until 2030, Sudan's GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower than it would be with no war, GDP per capita would fall by roughly $1,700, while more than 60% of the population would be living in extreme poverty."A conflict lasting to 2030 would push an additional 34 million people into extreme poverty – that is the entire population of Ghana," Renda said. He warned that a $1,700 fall in per capita income in Sudan "is the difference between being a family that can eat and one that can't, between being a child who goes to school and one who goes to work."Despite Sudan's vast natural resources – including oil, gold and some of Africa's most fertile agricultural land – the war has crippled the infrastructure needed to sustain the economy. "Natural resources don't feed people on their own," Renda said, "and every year of war moves those resources further out of reach".Healthcare System CollapseHealthcare indicators point to an even more severe long-term crisis. Since the war began, an estimated 70–80 percent of health facilities in conflict zones have become non-functional because of targeted attacks and looting.At least 145 verified attacks on healthcare facilities and personnel have been documented, leaving about 65 percent of Sudan's population without adequate access to medical care. In Khartoum, only one in four hospitals remains operational in the capital.The report finds that Sudan was already seeing deaths increasing from non-communicable diseases, such as heart disease and stroke before the war. But the situation worsened after fighting escalated, with conflict-related injuries surging sharply, with more than 61,000 deaths estimated between April 2023 and June 2024 alone.Infant mortality is projected to worsen dramatically, with Sudan forecast to become one of the worst-performing low-income countries in Africa by 2043.Athar Abdalla Mohamed, a doctor and community medicine resident at the Sudan Medical Specialisation Board (SMSB), warned that the consequences of collapsing healthcare systems may continue for years after the war. "A child missing a vaccination today may become part of a preventable epidemic years later," she said.Education Crisis and Displacement"Nineteen million school-aged children have had their education disrupted, and only one in five schools is currently open," Renda said. "We are talking about a lost generation."He also warned that displacement is accelerating state collapse, as Sudan endures one of the world's worst displacement crises. "When doctors flee, clinics close. When teachers leave, schools shut," Renda explains. "Displacement doesn't just uproot people – it destroys communities and the fabric of the state, making it harder and harder to rebuild."Path to RecoveryRenda suggests that recovery remains possible if the war ends and reforms are implemented. Under a "Sudan Rising" scenario built around peace, governance reforms and economic reconstruction, Sudan's GDP could reach US$58.2 billion by 2043 – nearly US$20 billion higher than under current trends.Average economic growth could accelerate to five percent, while 17.3 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty. "Our modelling shows what would be possible with peace this year and serious investment," Renda said. "That is a generation of work, but also a reason for hope and an irrefutable argument for doing everything possible to end the war now."Despite the scale of destruction, Dr Athar is optimistic that ongoing recovery efforts can lay the foundations for rebuilding Sudan. "I hope the ongoing efforts succeed in restoring hope, preserving what remains and helping build sustainable growth," she said.However, the trajectory appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with the doctor warning that Sudan is approaching a critical point. "Sudan cannot continue at this rate," she said. "The long term outcome depends greatly on whether efforts are made now to preserve essential services and invest in recovery before the damage becomes irreversible."Future OutlookWith both Hemedti and Burhan publicly signalling readiness for years – even decades – of war, Sudan risks becoming trapped in a cycle of state collapse, economic ruin and humanitarian devastation that could define an entire generation.

The Alleged Environmental Genocide A group of 298 petitioners from remote villages of Marsabit County in northern Kenya is suing BP and the Kenyan government over oil exploration waste from the 1980s that it says is causing a cancer cluster that has killed hundreds. The Cancer Cluster in Kargi Residents and local health workers say cancer cases and deaths have risen steadily, with more than 500 people reported dead from cancers affecting the digestive system, particularly the oesophagus and stomach. Many were from villages where access to medical care remains limited. The Impact of Oil Exploration Waste They believe rising cancer cases are linked to toxic waste left behind during oil exploration in the 1980s. Between 1986 and 1989, the US oil company Amoco, later acquired by BP, drilled exploration wells around the Chalbi Desert in search of oil. Foreign crews worked the area, found no viable deposits, and left. Residents say the company left more behind than empty wells. Mounting Evidence of Contamination Independent tests carried out since have pointed to possible contamination of local water sources, including the presence of heavy metals. Scientists have not yet established a definitive causal link between the contamination and the cancers, in part because long-term research has been thin. Legal Recourse for the Affected Communities The petitioners have sued BP and the Kenyan government, accusing both of failing to prevent or address environmental harm. They are seeking a full environmental assessment, access to safe water, and compensation for affected families and livestock losses. 'This is environmental genocide,' says Kelvin Kubai, the lawyer representing them.

The Lead Niger's military government has suspended nine French media publications, citing 'repeated dissemination of content likely to seriously jeopardise public order'. Media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has condemned the decision as 'abusive'. The Event Details The suspended organisations are France 24, RFI (Radio France Internationale), France Afrique Media, LSI Africa, AFP (Agence France-Presse), TV5 Monde, TF1 Info, Jeune Afrique and Mediapart. The decision was 'immediate' and included 'satellite packages, cable networks, digital platforms, websites and mobile applications'. The National Communication Observatory (ONC) announced the suspension on Friday. The Data Analysis 9 French media publications suspended Immediate effect on satellite packages, cable networks, digital platforms, websites and mobile applications Niger's military government has targeted local and foreign media outlets critical of its policies The Impact Analysis The targeting of French and other foreign media comes as Niger's military government has largely severed ties with its former colonial power, France, and turned away from Western allies. The three AES states (Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso) have secured defence partnerships with other countries, notably Russia. Local journalists have also been affected, with two Nigerien journalists released this week after being detained for months. The Prediction Niger's media landscape is likely to face further restrictions, with the government strengthening a law that criminalises the digital dissemination of 'data likely to disturb public order'. The RSF and Amnesty International have repeatedly voiced concerns about the 'decline' in press freedom in Niger, which dropped 37 places in this year's RSF World Press Freedom Index and now ranks 120th out of 180 countries.

The US Government's Access to AI Models Tech giants Microsoft, Google, and xAI have agreed to allow the United States federal government access to their new artificial intelligence models for national security testing. The Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) Agreement The Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) at the Department of Commerce announced the agreement on Tuesday amid increasing concerns about the capabilities that Anthropic’s newly unveiled Mythos model could give hackers. The Data Analysis and Testing Under the new agreement, the US government will be allowed to evaluate the models before deployment and conduct research to assess their capabilities and security risks. Microsoft will work with US government scientists to test AI systems “in ways that probe unexpected behaviors”. The Impact Analysis on National Security Concern is growing in Washington over the national security risks posed by powerful AI systems. By securing early access to frontier models, US officials are aiming to identify threats ranging from cyberattacks to military misuse before the tools are widely deployed. The Future Outlook and Implications The move builds on 2024 agreements with OpenAI and Anthropic under President Joe Biden’s administration. CAISI, which serves as the government’s main hub for AI model testing, said it had already completed more than 40 evaluations, including on cutting-edge models not yet available to the public.

The Global Financial Network Behind a Nationalist Party The far-right Reform UK party, led by the firebrand populist Nigel Farage, is on the rise, doubling down on calls for tougher border controls and anti-immigration rhetoric. But a look at its finances tells a different story, with money flowing across borders. While Reform UK says it aims to strengthen the rule of law by prioritising parliamentary sovereignty, cutting immigration, and reducing the influence of international bodies, many of its financial backers, political relationships and ideological allies extend beyond the United Kingdom and into international networks. Within this network is a small number of individual donors, including its largest backer, Thailand-based crypto investor Christopher Harborne. Farage himself is a global networker. In December, he flew to Abu Dhabi at the expense of the United Arab Emirates to attend events and meet officials, despite building a political brand centred on opposition to immigration from regions such as the Middle East. The UK political finance system allows unlimited donations on the condition of openness, Sam Power, an expert in political financing, electoral regulation and corruption at the University of Bristol, told Al Jazeera, noting that "anybody can donate as much as they want as long as they're permissible". While transparency was meant to balance this freedom, in practice, with opaque donations, gifts, and weak lobbying rules undermining scrutiny, the system is "no longer fit for purpose in British electoral law", he said. Duncan Hames, director of policy, Transparency International UK, said in a statement that British democracy is becoming "a plaything for the super-rich". "Political parties are growing ever more dependent on a tiny number of mega-donors, and the impact of that money on our politics is clear: it buys privileged access, political influence, and even seats in the House of Lords," he said. Donations have long been a function of the British political system, Power explained, but what Reform UK has done is that it has "supercharged" the scale. "British politics has always had a bit of a representation problem, in the sense that a small number of wealthy people have an outsized influence, but we have never seen the number this small and the money this big," Hames said. International Donors and Financial Flows Reform UK relies heavily on donations, about two-thirds of which come from wealthy individuals. At the heart of this set-up sits Harborne, a British-Thai billionaire businessman who is currently the largest single donor to a UK political party in history, having contributed more than 22 million pounds ($30m) to Reform. In 2025 alone, he donated 12 million pounds ($16.3m). His relationship with Farage has also been shrouded in controversy. The Guardian recently revealed Reform UK's leader had received a 5 million-pound ($6.8m) gift from Harborne that was not initially declared in early 2024, weeks before Farage announced his bid to become an MP and run in Clacton. Under House of Commons rules, new MPs must register all "registrable benefits" received in the 12 months before their election. The Conservative Party referred Farage to the parliamentary standards commissioner for investigation, questioning why such a large sum was hidden from the public. Farage said the money was gifted to him "so that I would be safe and secure for the rest of my life". Harborne has made much of his fortune from his 12 percent stake in Tether, a cryptocurrency that Farage now regularly promotes on media appearances. Global Travel and Speaking Engagements In December, the UAE paid approximately 1,000 pounds ($1,360) for Farage to visit Abu Dhabi and forked out $9,000 for Paddock passes at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, as shown in the UK Parliament Register of Members' Financial Interests. The Financial Times, quoting people familiar with the matter, reported Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy had arranged the trip as the UAE's leadership "was keen to speak with Reform owing to a shared opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood". Harborne is also estimated to have spent an estimated 25,000 pounds ($33,900) flying Farage out to the Maldives for a three-day trip that the Reform UK leader listed as a "humanitarian aid mission". Farage is also flown around the world to speak at various events. In November, Bassim Haidar, a Lebanese-Nigerian billionaire entrepreneur and prominent donor to Reform UK, spent about 55,000 pounds ($74,528) to fly out Farage and two of his aides to the United States for a "speaking engagement and charity event", according to the register. Haidar uses Dubai as his primary business headquarters, while his main European residential base is in Greece. In February 2025, GB News, a media outlet which has produced biased coverage about Muslims according to a recent study, paid Farage 7,924 pounds ($10,737) to cover the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual gathering of conservatives in the US, organised by the American Conservative Union, at which he also held a speech. CPAC covered the cost of his accommodation. The Future of UK Political Financing Reform UK has committed to doing the "bare minimum to comply with electoral law on transparency", Power said. The party appears "uninterested in giving you information unless they are absolutely forced to", a trend he expects to continue. However, small changes in the law are being applied. After Harborne's gift was revealed, the UK government unveiled a planned 100,000-pound ($135,611) cap on how much British citizens living abroad could donate in a year, as well as a temporary ban on all donations made in cryptocurrencies. Power said ultimately, the system of political donations in the UK will not halt overnight, but some form of compromise needs to be met. He proposed a "democracy backstop" to cap donations at 1 million pounds ($1.35m). "It just moves us towards just taking the poison out a little bit," he said.

France is taking a decisive step to stabilize the volatile waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is en route to the Red Sea, signaling a commitment to restoring freedom of navigation amidst the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.The Deployment of the Charles de GaulleThe French Ministry of Armed Forces confirmed the carrier's movement south of the Suez Canal. This deployment is not merely a show of force but a calculated diplomatic maneuver led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer. The mission is explicitly defensive and intended to operate only after the cessation of hostilities, aiming to restore "confidence among shipowners and insurers" in the region.Economic Stakes in the Strait of HormuzThe strategic importance of this waterway cannot be overstated. Prior to the war, roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The current blockade has severely disrupted global energy markets, making the restoration of shipping lanes a priority for international stability and economic recovery.A "Win-Win" Diplomatic FrameworkFrance is attempting to bridge the gap between the US and Iran with a unique proposal. The French presidency suggests a reciprocal agreement: Iran gains safe passage for its ships, while the US lifts its blockade, all in exchange for Iran committing to negotiations on nuclear materials and ballistic missiles. This framework aims to incentivize both parties to de-escalate.The Path to a Post-War SettlementWith reports suggesting the US and Iran are close to a one-page memorandum to end the conflict, the arrival of the Charles de Gaulle could serve as a stabilizing force. If the proposed deal—where Iran halts enrichment for 12 years and the US releases frozen assets—holds, the carrier's mission will likely transition from deterrence to peacekeeping, ensuring the smooth reopening of global trade routes.

Executive Summary: Coordinated ASEAN Response to Iran‑War Energy ShockSoutheast Asian leaders, convened in the Philippines, pledged stronger cooperation to mitigate the soaring energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the United States‑Israeli war on Iran.Summit Highlights: Energy‑Sharing Pact and Power‑Grid Integration by 2045Ferdinand Marcos Jr opened the meeting, warning that the conflict has raised "higher living costs" and threatened livelihoods both at home and for nationals abroad.ASEAN members, representing over 700 million people, will issue a joint statement demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and improved crisis communication.The bloc is pushing for a voluntary energy‑sharing agreement and the creation of an ASEAN power grid to link electricity networks by 2045.Energy Price Surge and Supply Disruptions Across Southeast AsiaIran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a large share of regional oil and natural‑gas supplies.Manila declared a national emergency in March; Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia have introduced price caps and work‑from‑home schemes.Petrochemical firms in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore invoked force majeure on existing contracts.Regional Security, Trade Routes, and Economic CooperationBeyond energy, the summit underscored concerns over overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, where China, the United States and allies have recently conducted naval drills. Experts like Tan Hsien‑Li expect ASEAN to seek deeper economic ties with like‑minded partners in Latin America and the Asia‑Pacific, and to push for substantive outcomes on the ASEAN Economic Community, Power Grid and Digital Economic Framework.Outlook: Toward a More Integrated ASEAN Energy FrameworkIf the proposed agreements materialise, ASEAN could reduce its vulnerability to external shocks, bolster energy security, and set a precedent for collective action on geopolitical crises. Continued diplomatic pressure on Iran and coordinated regional policies will be critical to stabilising energy markets and safeguarding trade routes in the coming years.

The Escalating Protests in Bolivia Protests in Bolivia have entered the third day with three separate groups calling for reforms to agricultural, educational and labour policies. The country’s main trade union, the Bolivian Workers’ Centre (COB) union, issued a strike call last Friday, coinciding with labour reform protests around the globe to mark International Workers’ Day. The Economic Crisis Fueling the Protests The South American nation was already facing a currency shortage, causing its largest economic crisis in 40 years. On Tuesday, COB, alongside transport and education workers, took to the streets, leading to clashes with police. Law enforcement officers fired tear gas at protesters near the presidential palace in La Paz, and in nearby El Alto, public workers blocked the streets with buses, cars and trucks. The Demands of the Protesters They are demanding compensation from the government for the damage. The strikes brought public transport to a halt in several major cities around the country. Among them are the administrative capital, La Paz, as well as El Alto, Cochabamba, Oruro, and the constitutional capital, Sucre. They have created at least 70 roadway blockages, according to the Bolivia Highway Association. The Government's Response Bolivia has faced a budgetary crisis and is running low on foreign currency reserves. Last year, Paz and his centre-right government replaced socialists who had been in power for decades, and at the time, Paz said that the country was in an “economic, financial, energy, and social emergency”. When Paz took office, the country’s total debt was 95 percent of GDP, and it had consistent deficits that mirrored the country’s commodity collapse in 2014. Bolivia’s liquid reserves were less than one month of imports, according to analysis from the non-partisan global economic think tank Finance for Development Lab. The Future Outlook COB has called for an indefinite general strike. “Starting today, a general, indefinite and active strike is declared, until the government understands the people’s demands,” COB’s Secretary-General Mario Argollo told a group of 1,000 supporters on Friday amid the calls for the protest in El Alto. Among the demands are a 20 percent increase to the nation’s minimum wage, which currently sits at 3,300 bolivianos ($477.71) per month and took effect in January. That is an increase from 2,750 bolivianos ($398) set in 2025.

The Economic Fallout of the Iran War Southeast Asian leaders have agreed on measures aimed at reducing the impact of the Iran war on their economies, but conceded that the initiatives will take considerable time to come into effect. ASEAN Summit Agreements On Friday, leaders gathered in the Philippines for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominating the agenda. Members agreed to a regional fuel-sharing framework in a bid to ease the economic strain caused by the more than two-month closure of the strategic waterway. Leaders also agreed to develop a regional power grid and fuel stockpile, while reducing their dependence on energy imports from the Middle East. Economic Impact and Future Outlook ASEAN currently imports more than half of its crude oil and 17 percent of its natural gas from the Middle East, according to the bloc’s Centre for Energy. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr welcomed the outcome, but conceded that the practical arrangements still needed to be clarified. “How is the sharing? Who gets what? How do you pay for it? Do you pay for it? Is it an exchange? … We haven’t done it before,” he said. Marcos warned that the economic consequences of the war in Iran would persist for the foreseeable future. “A few weeks worth of disruptions will take years to be corrected,” he said. Regional Response and Future Challenges The initiative was one of a handful of measures adopted at the summit. Al Jazeera’s Jamela Alindogan reported that the overarching theme was one of unity, with ASEAN countries pledging to continue coordinating their response while safeguarding their national interests. Alindogan added that the bloc was still recovering from tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump last year and was considering how to hedge its relationships with other countries to shield itself from future crises.