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The conflict between the US and Iran has taken a critical turn with mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey circulating proposals for an immediate ceasefire to both Washington and Tehran. The goal is to halt the five-week-old war and prevent further escalation, particularly in light of Donald Trump's threat to bomb Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.The mediators are pushing for both sides to agree to suspend hostilities and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments. This temporary ceasefire would be followed by a period of detailed negotiations aimed at reaching a more comprehensive peace agreement.Iranian officials have indicated that they would not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz as part of a temporary ceasefire. Additionally, reports suggest that Iran is wary of entering into an agreement that could be violated by periodic attacks from the US and Israel.Trump's ultimatum has been met with strong resistance from Iran. The country's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that peace negotiations are incompatible with ultimatums and threats of war crimes. Iran's central military command has warned of a 'much more devastating' retaliation should the US and Israel escalate their actions.Lawyers and experts have condemned the potential bombing of power plants and bridges as a likely war crime due to the disproportionate impact on civilians. The international community remains on high alert as the situation continues to deteriorate.Oil prices have fluctuated in response to the developments, with Brent crude futures initially falling by $1.92 to $107.11 a barrel on hopes of de-escalation before rising again. The conflict has already led to significant increases in oil prices, which were at $70 a barrel before the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.The situation on the ground remains volatile, with Israel claiming responsibility for strikes on Iranian petrochemical facilities and Iran's Revolutionary Guards. There have been reports of casualties on both sides, including a missile strike in Haifa, northern Israel, and bombings in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Two weeks after the United States and Israel entered a direct conflict with Iran, the White House faced mounting criticism that the war would drive up fuel costs and anger voters. Former President Donald Trump attempted to calm concerns on Truth Social, noting that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and that higher prices translate into higher revenues for American companies. Now, five weeks into the hostilities, the reality is becoming clear: defense contractors and oil companies are the primary beneficiaries of the escalating energy market. The Department of Defense announced that Boeing will partner with Lockheed Martin to triple U.S. production of missile seekers, a move that sent Lockheed Martin’s stock up 25% since the start of the year. The announcement also lifted Boeing’s share price, underscoring how wartime procurement is boosting aerospace valuations. At the same time, Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas flows—has pushed U.S. crude from $65 to over $110 per barrel in just a month. Pump prices have mirrored this surge, breaking the $4‑a‑gallon barrier for the first time since 2022. Oil majors have responded with sharp stock gains; ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron have each risen more than 20% year‑to‑date. According to market‑research firm Rystad Energy, U.S. oil producers stand to earn an additional $63 billion as barrels trade above $100. “Oil prices in March have been materially higher than anyone expected, delivering a windfall for the vast majority of U.S. energy companies,” said Leo Mariani, senior analyst at Roth Capital Partners. The last comparable price shock occurred in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when U.S. gasoline peaked at $5 per gallon and inflation surged to 9%. That episode generated $916 billion in global oil‑and‑gas profits, with U.S. firms accounting for $281 billion. Chevron’s subsequent $75 billion stock‑buyback program—seven times its prior year’s amount—illustrates how quickly companies can translate price spikes into shareholder returns. Research by economists Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella Weber revealed that in 2022, 50% of oil‑company profits went to the top 1% of Americans, while the bottom half of the wealth distribution captured just 1% of those gains. Analysts warn that the current conflict could generate even larger windfalls because it has damaged actual production capacity in the Middle East, not merely reshuffled supply. “You’re benefiting a lot more from higher prices than you are from lost production,” Mariani noted, emphasizing the outsized profit potential. Even if hostilities cease, restoring pre‑conflict output in the region may take months, prolonging the supply crunch. As senior fellow Clay Seagle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, the current situation differs from 2022: “Now we’re dealing with a much more severe supply event because the oil has been actually removed from the market.” Prolonged high prices could eventually curb demand, as consumers and businesses seek alternatives—a shift seen after the 1970s oil shocks when the U.S. moved away from oil‑generated electricity. Nonetheless, many sectors remain vulnerable: diesel, a key fuel for trucks and aircraft, has risen 40%, and airline stocks such as United and American have fallen more than 15% since the year began. Moreover, disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production threaten fertilizer supplies essential for agriculture. Semieniuk cautions that “we’re approaching the kinds of disruption levels we saw in 2022, and with that, the kinds of profits that we saw there. If this takes longer, it’s going to surpass that.”

The US war on Iran has now entered its sixth week, with the conflict showing no signs of abating. What was initially touted as a 'precise, overwhelming military campaign' to eliminate 'an imminent nuclear threat' has instead become a protracted and costly endeavor. The war has resulted in rising costs for the US in military equipment and personnel, and has had a significant impact on energy markets, with forecasts of a potential global economic recession in the event of a prolonged conflict.The conflict has also highlighted the Iranian regime's capacity for asymmetric warfare, with the country deploying cheap drones and missiles to disrupt energy facilities and compromise economies in the Gulf region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has also had a significant impact on the war effort, with the US and its allies struggling to reopen it.The US's failure to understand the Iranian regime's subjective complex dynamics has been a significant factor in the conflict's prolongation. The regime's ability to withstand pain and prolonged escalation without a clear scenario of military victory against a superpower has been underestimated, and its proxy groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have proven to be effective in advancing its interests and preventing outcomes that weaken or isolate it further.The conflict has also highlighted the diverging definitions of victory between the US and Iran, with the US seeking a swift and decisive victory, while Iran is focused on maintaining its viability on its own terms in the face of American hegemony. As the war continues, the question remains: how will this conflict end?

President Donald Trump issued a stark warning on Sunday, giving Tehran until Tuesday night to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. The message, posted on his Truth Social platform, was laced with profanity and a deadline of 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, responded on social media, accusing the United States of “reckless moves” that would set the entire region ablaze and turn it into “living hell.” The latest escalation follows the rescue of a second U.S. crew member from a downed F‑15E fighter that crashed in southwestern Iran, an operation that saw American special forces and Iranian troops racing against each other in mountainous terrain. Trump has repeatedly shifted the deadline for Iran, extending it at least twice. In his expletive‑laden post he warned, “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” Financial markets reacted instantly: the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 1.86 % to over $112 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed above $110. The surge underscores how geopolitical flashpoints can quickly translate into higher energy costs for consumers worldwide. Trump also hinted at a possible diplomatic breakthrough, telling Fox News there was a “good chance” of an agreement on Monday. Yet he added, “If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.” Legal scholars warned that targeting civilian infrastructure would breach the Geneva Conventions. Yale professor of international law Oona A. Hathaway noted that the president offered no justification to reclassify power plants, bridges, or steel factories as legitimate military targets, and that any such attacks would likely constitute war crimes. Iranian authorities estimate that the ongoing U.S.–Israeli campaign has damaged roughly 81,000 civilian sites, including 61,000 homes, 19,000 commercial facilities, 275 medical centres, and nearly 500 schools. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the coalition has destroyed about 70 % of Iran’s steel production capacity, citing its alleged use in missile manufacturing. In retaliation, Iran has intensified attacks on Gulf shipping and infrastructure. Over the weekend Iranian drones struck a petrochemical complex in Bahrain, igniting thick black smoke, and hit multiple Kuwait Petroleum facilities, causing fires and “significant material losses” at power and desalination plants. The most dramatic recent strike was the demolition of Iran’s unfinished 136‑metre B1 suspension bridge, a $400 million project meant to link Tehran and Karaj. The attack killed 13 people and injured 95, prompting the bridge’s engineer to lament the loss of a symbol of national pride. Trump posted a video of the bridge’s destruction, framing it as a response to Iran’s alleged unwillingness to negotiate. He later told Axios that the U.S. had been “close to an agreement” but that Iran’s demand to meet “in five days” was a pretext for the attack. Domestic criticism was swift. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer denounced the president’s rhetoric as “unhinged” and warned that such threats could alienate allies and amount to war crimes. International law experts reiterated that civilian objects—such as power plants, bridges, and hospitals—are protected under the Geneva Conventions. Any deliberate targeting of these assets for bargaining leverage would violate the conventions and could trigger legal accountability for the United States and any cooperating parties.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa have pledged to strengthen security cooperation between their countries. The agreement was made during Zelenskyy's visit to Damascus, where he discussed ways to enhance security and development opportunities for both nations. The cooperation aims to provide more security and opportunities for development for their societies, Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram after the meeting. He highlighted that there is a great interest in exchanging military and security experience between the two countries. Ukraine, which has developed significant expertise in countering drone attacks during its ongoing conflict with Russia, has been offering its military capabilities to countries in the Middle East region. Zelenskyy has recently signed long-term military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and has sent teams to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to share Ukraine's expertise. Syria, which currently lacks effective air defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, stands to benefit from Ukraine's experience. Iran and its allied groups have been attacking US and Israeli targets, as well as targets in Gulf countries, using a range of missiles and drones. In addition to security cooperation, Zelenskyy and al-Sharaa discussed joint opportunities to strengthen food security across the region. Zelenskyy emphasized that Kyiv is a reliable grain supplier. The meeting between the two presidents was also attended by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who met with Zelenskyy, al-Sharaa, and Ukrainian Ambassador Andrii Sybiha. This trilateral meeting underscores the growing diplomatic engagement in the region. Zelenskyy's visit to Syria follows his recent trip to Turkiye, where he agreed on new steps in security cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and discussed joint gas infrastructure projects.

Footage has emerged showing a missile launched by Iran striking a residential building in the Israeli city of Haifa. The video, which has been widely circulated, depicts the moment of impact and the subsequent damage to the building. The missile strike has heightened concerns about the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. The incident has sparked fears of a wider conflict in the region. The authenticity of the video has not been disputed, and it is believed to have been captured by a resident in the area. The Iranian missile struck the building with significant force, causing substantial damage. The incident comes amid a backdrop of increased hostility between Iran and Israel. The two nations have been engaged in a longstanding conflict, with tensions frequently flaring over issues such as nuclear proliferation and regional influence.

Israeli air and ground attacks on Lebanon on Sunday claimed at least 14 lives, including four civilians in Beirut’s southern suburbs and ten people in the south, among them a family of six. The strikes also left 39 wounded in the Jnah neighbourhood, just 100 metres from the Rafik Hariri University Hospital, Lebanon’s largest public medical centre. The violence follows a broader Israeli campaign launched on 2 March after Hezbollah fired rockets in response to the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. Since then, Israel has combined aerial bombardments, drone strikes and a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah announced on Sunday that it had fired a cruise missile at an Israeli warship stationed 126 km off the Lebanese coast, a claim that the Israeli military has not confirmed. In a separate statement, the Israeli defence forces said they had begun targeting “Hezbollah infrastructure sites” in Beirut’s southern suburbs, though they provided no public evidence of the alleged targets. On Saturday, Israel warned it would strike the Masnaa border crossing – the main trade gateway between Lebanon and Syria. The Lebanese side evacuated the post, and the Syrian authority, represented by Mazen Aloush of the General Authority for Borders and Customs, stressed that the crossing is “exclusively for civilian use” and announced a temporary suspension of traffic. According to Lebanese officials, Israeli attacks since early March have resulted in over 1,400 deaths, including 126 children, and have displaced more than 1.2 million people. In the southern town of Kfar Hatta, an Israeli strike killed seven individuals, among them a four‑year‑old girl and a Lebanese soldier, prompting a forced evacuation order for the area. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun used a televised address to urge renewed negotiations with Israel, pleading to spare the remaining homes in the south from the level of destruction witnessed in Gaza. These developments underscore the escalating humanitarian toll and the strategic pressure on Lebanon’s critical border infrastructure amid an already volatile regional conflict.

Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, warned on Sunday that his country’s participation in the 2026 World Cup remains doubtful unless FIFA agrees to shift Iran’s group‑stage fixtures from the United States to Mexico. The Iranian Football Federation (IFF) formally asked the global governing body to relocate the matches, but, according to Donyamali, it has yet to receive a definitive response. “If our request is accepted, Iran’s participation will be certain,” Donyamali told Turkey’s Anadolu news agency, underscoring the link between venue security and the team’s willingness to travel. The request comes amid heightened tensions after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran on February 28, sparking a broader regional conflict. Tehran retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting Israeli sites, U.S. bases in the Middle East, and Gulf infrastructure. Iran, the first Asian nation to qualify for the tournament, is slated to play all three group matches on the U.S. West Coast – Los Angeles on June 16, Belgium in Los Angeles on June 22, and Seattle on June 26. Former President Donald Trump recently said Iran was “welcome” in the United States but added that he doubted the venue was “appropriate for their own life and safety.” In response, the Iranian team posted on social media that “no one can exclude Iran’s national team from the World Cup.” Iranian football chief Mehdi Taj echoed the sentiment, stating, “When Trump explicitly says he cannot guarantee our security, we will not travel to America.” Taj confirmed ongoing negotiations with FIFA to move the games to Mexico. FIFA, however, rejected the relocation request, reaffirming that the schedule announced last year will stand. President Gianni Infantino told IFF Vice President Mehdi Mohammad Nabi that “the matches will be played where they are supposed to be, according to the draw.” Despite the diplomatic deadlock, Donyamali affirmed that Iran’s players continue training and will be ready for the tournament, provided that adequate security guarantees are secured from the host nations. “Under these circumstances, the possibility of Iran playing in the United States is very low; if the necessary security assurances are given, our government will make the final decision,” Donyamali said, adding that former President Trump’s remarks were “morally and ethically unbalanced.” The World Cup kicks off on June 11 in Mexico, with the opening matches in the United States and Canada following on June 12. The final is set for July 19 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif presented a comprehensive peace roadmap in Foreign Affairs on Friday, seeking to move beyond a temporary cease‑fire in the war that erupted on February 28 after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran. The plan urges Iran to place limits on its nuclear program under international monitoring, including a commitment to never pursue nuclear weapons and to blend its enriched uranium below 3.67 %. This would address the International Atomic Energy Agency’s estimate that Iran holds roughly 440 kg (970 lb) of uranium enriched to 60 %—a level close to the 90 % threshold needed for a bomb. Zarif also proposes a mutual non‑aggression pact with the United States, coupled with the immediate lifting of all US sanctions and United Nations Security Council resolutions against Tehran. To secure regional stability, he suggests forming a regional fuel‑enrichment consortium that would involve China, Russia and the United States alongside Iran and its Gulf neighbours, using West Asia’s sole enrichment facility. Additionally, a broader security framework could include Gulf states, UN Security Council powers and possibly Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey to guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely blocked since the conflict began. Beyond security, Zarif calls for “mutually beneficial trade, economic and technological cooperation” between Iran and the United States, framing the roadmap as a “well‑timed off‑ramp” for President Donald Trump, who recently warned Iran it had 48 hours to negotiate a deal or face “all hell”. Gulf officials reacted sharply. UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash dismissed the proposal as ignoring Iran’s aggressive missile and drone attacks on Gulf infrastructure, calling the strategy “hubris & strategic failure.” Former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani acknowledged the plan’s cleverness but warned that the war has “eroded the trust built over years” and increased regional danger. The United States has offered a 15‑point cease‑fire plan, while Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt continue to push for direct talks, yet no substantive progress has emerged. Should the roadmap gain traction, it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz—through which one‑fifth of global crude oil and natural gas normally flows—alleviate the economic shockwaves rippling through world markets, and reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.