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Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

Europe is undergoing a significant transformation in its relationship with the US, marked by a growing desire for independence and a shift away from Trump's aggressive policies. The recent crisis in the Middle East, where Trump's threat to annihilate Iranian civilisation was temporarily called off, has been a turning point in this journey. Initially, many European leaders had tacitly supported the US and Israeli attack on Iran, driven by a desire for a transatlantic detente and antipathy towards the Iranian regime. However, as the war escalated, Europe's stance began to shift, with countries like Italy, Poland, and France taking steps to distance themselves from Trump's policies. The cooling of European support for the war has taken various forms, including Italy denying US warplanes permission to use an airbase in Sicily, Poland refusing to send Patriot air defence systems to the Middle East, and France rejecting overflight rights and opposing a US-sponsored resolution at the UN security council. This shift in European policy is driven by a number of factors, including the realisation that the war has been a windfall for Russia, through higher oil prices and a depletion of air defence interceptors available to Ukraine. European leaders have also been reminded that the erosion of international law is bad news for the world, Europe included. As Europe finds its footing in distancing itself from Trump, it may also find its voice. Europe's diplomatic role in the Iranian nuclear file in the early 2000s grew out of its opposition to the Iraq war. Today, the same dynamic could unfold, with Europe promoting a permanent end of hostilities and a multilateral initiative in the region. The proposal by a group of European, Gulf, and Asian countries to contribute to ensuring safe passage through the strait of Hormuz was originally aimed at placating Trump. Europeans then backed a UN-led fertiliser corridor to prevent a food crisis in the global south. The UK is also leading a coalition of more than 40 countries seeking to reopen the strait once the US and Israel definitively end their offensive. If a sustainable reopening of Hormuz succeeds, it could eventually extend to a new nuclear agreement, a non-aggression pact between the US and Iran, and a similar one between Israel and Iran – including Lebanon. It could involve the release of Iranian funds frozen abroad to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by US and Israeli attacks, and the selective lifting of EU and US sanctions.

Lebanon's prime minister expressed approval for a recently announced US‑Iran ceasefire, describing it as a hopeful step toward de‑escalation in the Middle East. The endorsement came at a time when Israeli strikes targeted areas of Beirut, causing renewed concern over civilian safety and regional stability. While the ceasefire signals a potential cooling of tensions between Washington and Tehran, the ongoing Israeli operations highlight the complex and often contradictory dynamics shaping the conflict landscape.

Reports have emerged of a substantial escalation in hostilities as Israel carried out 100 air strikes across Lebanon in a remarkably short period of 10 minutes. The incident, which occurred on April 8, 2026, at 16:29:54 GMT, has raised concerns about the intensification of Middle East conflict dynamics. The rapid succession of air strikes by Israel over Lebanon has sparked international attention and concern. Details about the targets, casualties, or specific objectives of these strikes are not provided in the available information. However, such a concentrated military operation within a brief timeframe underscores the volatile nature of regional tensions. This development comes amid heightened scrutiny of Israel-Lebanon relations and the broader Middle East peace process. The international community remains vigilant, monitoring the situation closely for any signs of further escalation or potential humanitarian crises.

US President Donald Trump's recent statements threatening Iran have raised concerns about the potential consequences for global power and regional stability. Trump's vow to 'wipe out' Iran has been met with warnings of a potentially catastrophic impact on the region.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has become a focal point in the tensions between the US and Iran. The US has been pressing Iran to open the strait, which has led to a significant escalation in rhetoric between the two nations.Experts warn that such brinkmanship could have far-reaching consequences, potentially reshaping global power dynamics and impacting the stability of the Middle East. The situation remains volatile, with many concerned about the potential for conflict.Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, provides insight into the complexities of the situation and the potential implications for US foreign policy.

The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.

As the clock ticked down to President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the six‑week Middle East conflict teetered on the brink of a far more devastating escalation.Trump’s rhetoric had escalated dramatically, with his Truth Social posts warning that the United States would unleash strikes capable of “decimating every bridge and power plant in Iran” and that “a whole civilisation will die tonight.” Legal experts labeled the language as bordering on a genocidal threat.Amid the rising tension, a series of rapid developments unfolded on Tuesday:12:06 GMT – Trump announced a plan to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, promising total destruction of bridges and power facilities.15:21 GMT – Iranian media confirmed that US strikes hit Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil‑export hub, but reported no significant damage.15:40 GMT – In the UN Security Council, China and Russia vetoed a Bahraini resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the draft was biased against Tehran.16:54 GMT – Qatar’s defence ministry reported a successful missile interception, while the United Arab Emirates warned of a barrage of missile and drone attacks.18:23 GMT – Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, signalled a “step forward” after a “critical, sensitive stage,” praising Pakistan’s “positive and productive” peace efforts.19:17 GMT – Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed to Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks, urging Tehran to keep the Strait open as a goodwill gesture.20:25 GMT – Iran warned it would target US and Gulf‑allied energy infrastructure, threatening to block regional oil and gas supplies for years.20:41 GMT – Joint US‑Israeli airstrikes struck the Amirkabir Petrochemical Plant in Mahshahr, Iran, prompting local assessments of damage.With less than ninety minutes remaining, diplomatic channels intensified. Pakistani officials, including the military chief Asim Munir, facilitated talks that culminated in a two‑week, double‑sided cease‑fire announced by Trump at 22:45 GMT. The United States claimed to have received a “workable” 10‑point proposal from Tehran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly confirmed the truce, stating Iran would honor it provided attacks on its territory ceased. Sharif then invited both Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations aimed at a permanent settlement.Early Wednesday, Trump’s tone shifted dramatically. In a Truth Social post he hailed the cease‑fire as a potential “Golden Age for the Middle East,” celebrating the pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The episode underscores how last‑minute diplomacy, spearheaded by Pakistan, averted a catastrophic escalation and opened a narrow window for a broader peace process in a region long mired in conflict.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Wednesday that the United States had achieved a "decisive" military victory over Iran, claiming the Iranian missile programme has been "functionally destroyed." Speaking alongside General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hegseth described the operation—codenamed Operation Epic Fury—as a "historic and overwhelming" triumph that met every objective, including the dismantling of Iran’s navy, air‑defence systems and missile‑production capability. The declaration came a day after President Donald Trump stepped back from a threatened full‑scale assault on Iran, just two hours before a self‑imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. The resulting cease‑fire agreement stipulates that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon and that the United States will monitor the country’s enriched uranium stockpiles. While Hegseth emphasized that "they can still shoot here and there, but that would be very unwise," he also warned that US forces will remain in the region to ensure compliance with the two‑week cease‑fire and to oversee the safe transit of vessels through the strategic waterway. Iran’s response was equally emphatic. The Supreme National Security Council, cited by IRNA, congratulated the Iranian people on a "victory" and urged perseverance until the details of that victory are finalized. The council highlighted Iran’s alliances with the so‑called "axis of resistance" in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and occupied Palestine, claiming the coalition has delivered blows to the enemy over the past 40 days. At the same briefing, General Caine confirmed that US military objectives in Iran have been met, but framed the cease‑fire as a "pause" rather than a permanent end to hostilities, noting that forces remain ready to resume combat if necessary. In parallel diplomatic developments, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday or Friday, contingent on a cease‑fire framework being reached ahead of a scheduled US‑Iran meeting in Pakistan. The closure of the strait has previously disrupted global oil and gas markets, making its reopening a critical economic signal. Trita Parsi, vice‑president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that President Trump needed an exit from a war he described as "an absolute disaster" and that the next two weeks are "crucial" for any genuine diplomatic opening, though he cautioned that the situation is not yet resolved. Analysts note that the cease‑fire’s success will hinge on Iran’s willingness to allow unfettered navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and on US verification of Iran’s uranium holdings. The coming fortnight will test whether the declared victory translates into lasting stability in a volatile region.