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Lead: A Climate Champion Turns Policy ReverserWithin weeks of taking office, Mark Carney—once celebrated for his 2015 Bank of England speech on climate‑related financial risk—has abandoned the consumer carbon price, weakened methane rules, and opened the door to new oil‑and‑gas infrastructure. The rapid policy reversal has left climate‑concerned voters feeling betrayed and has sparked a national debate over Canada’s environmental direction. Carney’s Immediate Dismantling of Canada’s Climate FrameworkAmong his first actions, the prime minister:Scrapped the nationwide consumer carbon price.Rebranded the climate agenda as a “Climate Competitiveness Strategy” focused on investment rather than regulation.Delayed clean‑electricity mandates from 2035 to 2050, allowing new gas‑powered plants.Weakened methane regulations and postponed their implementation.Cancelled the planned oil‑and‑gas emissions cap that had been under consultation for years. Quantifying the Policy Reversals: Carbon Pricing and Emission TargetsThe federal‑Alberta agreement reduces the industrial carbon price from the projected $170 per tonne by 2030 to $130 per tonne by 2040, effectively rendering the tool “virtually irrelevant.” The removal of the consumer price and the delay of zero‑emission‑vehicle mandates have already triggered a “dramatic drop‑off” in EV sales, according to recent market data. Domestic and International Repercussions of Canada’s Climate ShiftThese moves have multiple layers of impact:Domestic emissions: Weakening of carbon pricing and the fast‑tracking of LNG and pipeline projects are expected to raise Canada’s total greenhouse‑gas output.Provincial politics: The deal appeases Alberta’s separatist‑leaning faction but alienates climate‑focused voters nationwide.Global credibility: Canada’s commitment to the 2050 net‑zero goal is now described by the Canadian Climate Institute as “firmly out of reach,” undermining its standing in international climate negotiations. What Lies Ahead for Canada’s Climate AgendaAnalysts warn that without a coherent carbon‑pricing mechanism, Canada may struggle to attract private investment in clean‑energy projects, while Indigenous groups have signaled readiness to block new fossil‑fuel infrastructure. The government’s reliance on a sovereign‑wealth‑fund model to subsidize these projects mirrors a “mirror opposite of Norway’s successful fund,” raising questions about fiscal sustainability. If the current trajectory continues, Canada could see both higher domestic emissions and increased downstream carbon leakage as exported oil and gas feed global markets.

The Lead The spectacle of a prime minister clinging to power while his party grows increasingly desperate for a replacement is painfully familiar from the end of the last Tory government. British politics feels trapped in a loop. This condition is not wholly a result of Brexit, but the failure of that project is a significant part of it. Britain's Strained Relations with Europe None of the benefits promised in the referendum by the leave campaign have materialised. It is all downside, but political discussion of any significant rewriting of the terms of departure is taboo. Sir Keir Starmer's 'reset' of European relations is mostly tinkering at the margins. The Shift in Global Politics Meanwhile, the strategic calculus has changed entirely since 2016. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed European complacency about continental defence and energy security. Donald Trump's aggressive contempt for old allies makes it clear that they cannot depend on the US for protection. The Urgency for European Collective Action Discussions in Brussels around 'strategic autonomy' have become increasingly urgent. A club of 27 member states is still unwieldy in decision-making, but in a world of geopolitical upheaval and increased international lawlessness, the logic of collective continental action is irresistible. The Future of UK-EU Relations As a non-EU member, Britain is not part of that conversation. It is still a nuclear-armed Nato member and, by European standards, a significant military power. It has strong bilateral relations with fellow European democracies and a defence and security deal with Brussels in the works. Those credentials matter, but they do not compensate for the loss of a seat at the EU top table.

Market Reaction to Trump’s Iran Negotiation ClaimThe announcement by Donald Trump that talks with Iran were "in the final stages" triggered an immediate sell‑off in crude markets, pulling Brent down $6.64 (5.97%) to $104.64 a barrel and WTI off $6.49 (6.23%) to $97.66 by early afternoon ET. Trump Announces Final‑Stage Iran Talks Amid Ongoing TensionsThe U.S. president warned of further attacks unless Iran agrees to a deal. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was ready to develop safe‑shipping protocols with other coastal states, but offered no specifics. Oil Price Drops and Futures Data Highlight 6% DeclineBrent futures: $104.64 per barrel (down 5.97%)WTI futures: $97.66 per barrel (down 6.23%)One‑month vs six‑month Brent premium: about $20 a barrel, well below last month’s peak of > $35Three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 6 million barrels, far fewer than the pre‑war average of ~130 vessels per day Supply‑Chain Uncertainty and Market Sentiment Remain FragileAnalysts remain cautious. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said markets “take pronouncements with a grain of salt.” Citi analysts project Brent could rise to $120 a barrel, arguing current pricing underestimates prolonged disruption risk. Wood Mackenzie warns prices could approach $200 if the Hormuz corridor stays largely shut through year‑end. PVM notes global oil inventories may hit critically low levels, while Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that some nations are easing sanctions on Russian oil to keep markets functioning. Analysts Forecast Potential Rebound if Negotiations Stall or Supply TightensIf talks falter, Brent could quickly retest the $120‑$130 range, driven by renewed risk premiums.Continued low traffic through Hormuz would sustain a tight market, supporting higher spot prices.Any formal agreement that eases sanctions on Iranian oil could provide a modest supply boost, tempering price gains.

The Elon Musk Documentary Returns on BBC Two 9 pm, BBC Two – Two‑and‑a‑half years after the original series, the sequel revisits Elon Musk with fresh insider testimony about the Twitter/X takeover and the turbulent relationship with former President Donald Trump. Critics note the programme’s focus on culture‑war dynamics rather than pure business analysis. Prime‑Time Competition: Ratings and Scheduling Stakes 8 pm, BBC One – Race Across the World: The Final pits teams against an 11,000 km route, offering a £20 k prize for the fastest finish. 8 pm, Sky Arts – Classic Movies: The Story of Three Days of the Condor provides a deep‑dive into the 1975 spy thriller, linking it to 1970s geopolitical anxieties. 9 pm, Channel 4 – Taskmaster returns for its 22nd series, mixing absurd comedy with celebrity challenges. 9 pm, Channel 5 – The Hardacres continues its period‑drama narrative, exploring class tensions in a rural setting. 9 pm, Sky Atlantic – Prisoner delivers a gritty continuation of its crime saga. 11.40 pm, Film4 – Glory (1989) rounds out the night with a historic war film. Cultural Impact of the Featured Programs The line‑up blends documentary scrutiny (Elon Musk), reality competition (Race Across the World), and nostalgic film analysis, reflecting a broader audience appetite for content that merges entertainment with socio‑political commentary. Shows like Taskmaster maintain high repeat viewership, while period dramas such as The Hardacres attract niche but loyal demographics. What to Expect from Next Week’s Line‑up Analysts predict the network will double‑down on high‑profile documentaries and reality finales to capture peak‑time audiences, potentially shifting the 9 pm slot on BBC Two to more investigative programming. Viewers can also anticipate further cross‑channel collaborations, especially around award‑season film broadcasts.

Huckabee’s Public Rebuke of Ben‑GvirOn 2026‑05‑20, Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, joined a wave of international criticism by condemning Itamar Ben‑Gvir for posting a video that showed detained activists from a Gaza‑bound aid flotilla being taunted and restrained. Huckabee cited “universal outrage from every high‑ranking Israeli official,” naming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, President Isaac Herzog and Ambassador Yechiel Leiter as sharing his concern.Countries that summoned Israeli ambassadors: Italy, France, the Netherlands, Canada.Video content: Ben‑Gvir waving an Israeli flag, shouting, and pointing at bound activists.Treasury’s Targeted Sanctions on Flotilla OrganisersJust a day after Huckabee’s statement, the US Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, imposed sanctions on four individuals linked to the Global Sumud Flotilla – two from the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad (PCPA) and two from the Samidoun network. The Treasury labeled the flotilla a “pro‑terror” operation allegedly supporting Hamas, a claim the organisers vehemently reject.Sanctioned entities: four organisers (2 PCPA, 2 Samidoun).Accusation: “in support of Hamas”.Financial Scale of US‑Israel Military AidAnalysts note that isolated gestures, such as the current sanctions, are dwarfed by the United States’ ongoing military assistance to Israel, which exceeds $3 billion annually. The Trump administration previously lifted sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and continued to provide extensive aid, underscoring the asymmetry between diplomatic criticism and material support.Shifting Diplomatic Landscape in the Middle EastThe combined diplomatic push – public condemnation from US officials and sanctions on pro‑Palestinian activists – signals a tentative recalibration of US policy under the Trump administration. However, scholars from the Quincy Institute argue that these “weak gestures” are unlikely to alter the broader strategic partnership, especially as election cycles in Israel amplify internal political battles between moderate and far‑right factions.What to Expect from US Policy Going ForwardFuture developments may include:Potential expansion of sanctions to other individuals or entities perceived as supporting the flotilla.Increased pressure from European allies for a more balanced US stance on freedom of navigation in international waters.Continued debate within US Congress about targeting high‑profile Israeli officials such as Ben‑Gvir or Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.While the current actions highlight growing frustration with Israel’s far‑right tactics, the underlying US‑Israel security relationship remains robust, suggesting that any substantive policy shift will require broader bipartisan consensus in Washington.

The Unexpected Comment Former US President Donald Trump made a surprising joke about running for Israeli Prime Minister. Context and Implications The comment has sparked interest and debate in political circles, though it's unclear if Trump was serious or simply making a joke. Trump's History with Israel Trump has been a significant figure in Middle Eastern politics, with his administration's policies on Israel being highly controversial. Reaction and Future Implications The reaction to Trump's joke is still unfolding, with many waiting to see if he will make any future moves related to Israeli politics.

Keir Starmer announced a £3.7bn trade agreement with the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, calling it a “huge win” for British business after four years of negotiations spanning four prime ministers.Starmer Secures £3.7bn GCC Trade Deal After Four Years of NegotiationsThe agreement, signed on 20 May 2026, removes tariffs on 93% of British goods sold to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It follows earlier pacts with India and South Korea and is presented as the most significant agricultural deal since Brexit.Financial Upside: £3.7bn in Export Opportunities and Tariff EliminationsThe government estimates the deal will generate £3.7bn of export opportunities – double the original forecast – across food, luxury cars, defence, aerospace, hospitality and other services.Zero tariffs on: food, medical equipment, defence, aerospace, advanced manufacturing.Current tariffs removed: 5% blanket duty on most GCC imports; specific rates previously applied to cheddar cheese (6%), chocolate (15%), biscuits (10%) and cars (5%).Data‑storage: GCC states will allow UK firms to store data outside the region for the first time.Political and Human‑Rights Controversies Surrounding the DealCritics, including the Trade Justice Movement’s Tom Wills, argue the omission of a human‑rights chapter is “especially alarming” given documented abuses in the Gulf. Paul Nowak of the Trade Unions Congress called the agreement “disappointing” in light of the region’s record on workers’ rights. The government says political channels, not trade texts, are the preferred venue for addressing such concerns.Implications for UK Industries and Future Trade StrategyThe National Farmers Union hails the deal as the best agricultural arrangement since the EU exit, while the British Chambers of Commerce expects new business for firms in financial services, energy, construction, professional services, education, hospitality and technology. William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, stresses the pact’s potential to benefit “tens of thousands of UK firms.” Investor‑protection clauses have raised worries about future litigation over policy shifts, such as Heathrow expansion.Outlook: How the GCC Pact May Shape Britain’s Trade LandscapeBeyond immediate revenue, the agreement signals the UK’s intent to be the first G7 nation with a “modern and ambitious” GCC deal, potentially encouraging further Gulf investment in UK assets like Heathrow and Newcastle Football Club. The political window created for Starmer may influence upcoming domestic debates, while the lack of human‑rights provisions could shape future negotiations with other non‑EU partners.

The Crisis Facing Keir Starmer's Leadership Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing the biggest crisis of his leadership after Labour's bruising council election losses caused panic inside the party. As Nigel Farage and Reform UK gain ground, we examine why Starmer's authority appears to be slipping before any formal challenge has even begun and whether Britain is entering another period of political instability. The Impact of Council Election Losses The losses have raised concerns about Starmer's ability to lead the party and maintain stability in British politics. With Reform UK gaining momentum, the situation is becoming increasingly challenging for Starmer. The Future of Labour and UK Politics As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how Starmer will address the challenges facing his leadership and whether Labour can recover from these losses. One thing is certain, however: the outcome will have significant implications for the future of UK politics. Credits and Connections Kieren Andrieu (@kieran_andrieu), Political Economist Episode credits: This episode was produced by Noor Wazwaz and Sari el-Khalili, with Spencer Cline, Tuleen Barakat, Catherine Nouhan and our host, Malika Bilal. It was edited by Tamara Khandakar. Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editors are Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad al-Melhem. Alexandra Locke is The Take's executive producer. Connect with us: @AJEPodcasts on X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube

The Move to Dissolve Parliament Israeli lawmakers have voted to advance a bill that would dissolve parliament and pave the way for early elections. In a preliminary reading on Wednesday, 110 out of 120 lawmakers voted in favour and none against, while the rest did not cast their votes. The Road to Early Elections The bill will now pass to a committee before three more parliamentary readings. If it receives final approval, a process that could take weeks, it would trigger an election within 90 days. Polls are currently set to be held before the end of the legislative session on October 27. Pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties, while his fractious right-wing coalition appears to be facing possible collapse. Ultra-Orthodox parties accuse Netanyahu of failing to deliver on his promise to pass legislation that would exempt young men of their community from mandatory military service. The Impact on Israeli Politics The vote comes at a pivotal time for Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who leads the most right-wing government in the country’s history. Israel has been at war on multiple fronts in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, while many Israelis blame Netanyahu for the security failure that enabled the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. “These are the October 7 elections, the elections in which the Israeli public will send home the government of negligence that brought upon us the greatest disaster in the state’s history,” Yair Golan, head of left-wing party the Democrats, wrote on X. The Future Outlook Meanwhile, Netanyahu also faces a long-running corruption trial, while Israel’s President Isaac Herzog is mediating talks to broker a plea deal that could see the 76-year-old leader retire from politics altogether as part of the agreement.