Politics
Jun 19, 2026
From JCPOA Exit to 2026 Deal: The Fractured Path of US-Iran Relations Under Trump
This article traces the deteriorating relationship between the United States and Iran during Presid…
The Lead
The United States and Iran are set to sign an initial agreement in Geneva to end the US-Israel war on Iran, marking a potential turning point in relations that have been fractured since President Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. Pakistan has taken the lead in mediating these peace talks, with both sides preparing to begin a 60-day negotiation process while resuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Diplomatic Breakdown: From Nuclear Deal to Conflict
Relations between Washington and Tehran have been tumultuous since Trump's first term as US president, when he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal, brokered by then-US President Barack Obama, restricted uranium enrichment at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility to 3.67 percent – enough for energy production but far from weapons-grade levels. In return, the US and other Western nations lifted sanctions on Iran.
Despite independent inspections confirming Iran's compliance with the agreement, Trump described it as a "terrible deal" without providing specific details about his objections. Following the US withdrawal on May 8, 2018, Iran called Trump's action "unacceptable" and indicated it would bypass Washington to negotiate with the deal's other signatories.
The Escalation Cycle: Sanctions and Confrontation
The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran unfolded through a series of escalating measures:
August 7, 2018: First round of new sanctions targeting Iran's aviation, carpets, pistachios, and gold sectors
November 5, 2018: Additional sanctions specifically targeting Iran's key oil and banking sectors
April 8, 2019: Designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a "foreign terrorist organization" – the first time Washington labeled another country's military a terrorist group
In retaliation, Tehran deemed Washington a "state sponsor of terrorism" and called US forces in the region "terrorist groups." The tensions culminated on January 3, 2020, when US forces assassinated Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC's elite Quds Force, in a drone strike in Baghdad. Iran responded with missile attacks on Iraqi bases housing US troops, leading to traumatic brain injuries for over 100 US service members.
The War and Its Aftermath: From Conflict to Ceasefire
The relationship deteriorated further in 2025-2026, with Trump "restoring maximum pressure" on Iran shortly after his second inauguration. Despite claiming in May 2025 that the US was "close to a nuclear deal" with Iran, tensions escalated when the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched attacks on Israeli-linked shipping and Israel itself over the Gaza war.
The conflict reached its peak on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites. The US joined the war on June 22, attacking three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran responded by targeting a military base in Qatar hosting American troops, leading Trump to announce a ceasefire a day later.
The Current Diplomatic Landscape: Toward a New Agreement
By February 2026, the situation had escalated further when Israel and the US launched strikes on Tehran, killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering the US-Israeli war on Iran. The conflict devastated both nations and destabilized the entire region.
Now, in June 2026, with Pakistan mediating, the US and Iran are preparing to sign an initial agreement in Geneva to end the war, begin negotiations, and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump has indicated that Iran's nuclear program will be part of any final agreement, he has made no mention of previous US demands such as dismantling Iran's ballistic missiles program or ending its support for proxy armed groups in the region.
The Future Outlook: Uncertain Path to Normalization
"The only thing that really matters to me is Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and it says it loud and clear," Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven summit in France. "All hell will rain down on Iran if it intends to acquire a nuclear weapon."
Neither side has yet published details of the initial agreement, leaving unclear the extent to which Iran and the US have reached agreements on major issues or even whether to discuss them in the upcoming talks. The 60-day negotiation period will determine whether this fragile diplomatic opening can lead to a more comprehensive settlement or if the region will remain on edge, vulnerable to further escalation.
#Donald Trump
#Iran
#JCPOA
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