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The UK government is calling for Lebanon to be included in the recent US-Iran ceasefire agreement, as divisions deepen between the UK and US over how to implement the truce. UK Defence Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have emphasized the need for a comprehensive ceasefire that covers Lebanon, following Israel's intensified bombing campaign in the country, which has resulted in at least 254 people killed. Healey warned that imposing tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as suggested by US President Donald Trump, would set a dangerous precedent for international shipping. The UK is advocating for the strait to remain open and free, consistent with international navigation laws. Cooper is expected to stress that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire and that there must be no return to conflict. The UK's stance has been communicated to both the US and Israel. The escalation in Lebanon has prompted Iran to halt the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in global fuel and fertilizer prices. The UK is working to support the reopening of the strait, which is a critical artery for the global economy. Cooper will emphasize that freedom of navigation is crucial for global trade and that no country can close these routes without violating the law of the sea.

The two‑child benefit cap, introduced in 2015 by Chancellor George Osborne as a fairness measure, has been widely criticised for penalising families rather than influencing birth rates. Eleven years on, evidence shows the policy did not reduce family size but instead increased hardship for the poorest households.Research estimates that the cap pushed 350,000 children into poverty and drove another 700,000 deeper into deprivation. The impact fell disproportionately on the most vulnerable universal‑credit claimants, with a notable over‑representation of Muslim and Jewish families. Affected children missed out on school uniforms, extracurricular activities, and even regular meals.On Monday, the government announced the cap’s removal – a move that analysts say could deliver the most significant reduction in child poverty seen in a single parliamentary term. Modelling suggests that by 2030 450,000 children could be lifted out of poverty, while roughly 480,000 families may see an annual boost of £4,100. Parents anticipate being able to avoid food banks, afford hot school meals, and prevent bullying linked to clothing.The reversal was not inevitable. Persistent campaigning by think‑tanks, charities, and a handful of rebellious Labour MPs – some of whom faced suspension for defying party whips – forced the issue onto the political agenda. Nevertheless, the editorial notes that an estimated four million children will remain in poverty without further systemic reforms, such as raising Universal Credit rates and increasing local housing allowances.Public opinion remains divided: a recent YouGov poll found that six in ten Britons previously supported keeping the cap, though support for removal rose when the policy was framed as giving every child a good start. The editorial warns that other parties, including Reform UK, have pledged to reinstate the limit, underscoring the need for Labour to consolidate this victory and push for broader anti‑poverty measures.

Oil tanker workers stuck in the Gulf for six weeks are reaching their limit, with mental health concerns escalating due to the prolonged standoff. A crew member, who spoke to the Guardian, revealed that the situation is becoming increasingly unbearable.The worker, one of 20,000 seafarers trapped by Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, expressed frustration and despair, stating that any hope of being freed had evaporated. The crew member's tanker is anchored near dozens of loaded tankers, with many feeling unwilling and unable to traverse the strait, even if a ceasefire allowed them to do so.90% of the crew on the tanker want to exercise their right to refuse to sail, citing safety concerns. The situation has taken a toll on the crew's mental health, with one member suffering a 'mental breakdown' and being checked on regularly by colleagues.The International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) has received about 1,000 inquiries from seafarers on 300 different vessels, with 20% seeking repatriation. The union and other organizations are trying to provide support, but the situation remains dire.The shipping companies are expected to find new crew members willing to work in hazardous areas, offering double pay and promotions. However, the workers stuck on the tankers hope that their vessel will be taken to anchorage to allow new crew to take their places.The situation has reignited calls for shipowners to replace their crews with mariners willing to offer relief, highlighting the human cost of the conflict.

Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

The New Economics Foundation (NEF) has proposed that the UK government provide subsidized energy to all households, funded through North Sea tax revenues. The plan would ensure that every household receives a set amount of energy at current rates, helping to protect the poorest households from rising energy costs.According to NEF, providing enough energy to heat two rooms, provide hot water, and run key appliances like a fridge and washing machine at frozen rates would require a subsidy of about £4.5bn. This amount is roughly equal to the expected windfall in tax revenues from the North Sea, generated by the high price of oil.The proposed measure, known as a price guarantee, would save all households more than £160 on their annual bills. However, this would amount to a saving of about 17% for those on low incomes compared with 11% for wealthier people. NEF argues that this would encourage those who can afford to pay to reduce their energy consumption and invest in energy-efficient measures.Alex Chapman, a senior economist at NEF, stated that similar measures have been successfully implemented in countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and India, as well as several European countries. He emphasized the need for the government to protect households' ability to meet their essential energy needs and to tax energy companies on their windfall profits.The energy cap is expected to rise by about £388 in July and could reach nearly £2,000 a year for dual-fuel households. NEF's proposal aims to mitigate the impact of rising energy costs on vulnerable households.

The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

President Donald Trump has stated that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, contradicting Pakistan's claim that the truce covers the entire region. This development comes after Israel launched a massive assault on Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of casualties in densely populated areas.Trump described the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah as a “separate skirmish,” indicating that the US-Iran agreement does not extend to Lebanon due to Hezbollah's presence. “Because of Hezbollah, they were not included in the deal,” he told PBS. “That’ll get taken care of, too. It’s all right.”The exclusion of Lebanon from the truce risks jeopardizing the ceasefire across the region. Iranian news outlets have reported that Tehran may take serious steps in response to the Israeli attacks, including potentially suspending oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed these reports.Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced that the two-week truce covers the entire region, specifically mentioning Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that attacks against Lebanon would continue, despite the US-Iran agreement.Israel's recent assault on Lebanon has compounded the humanitarian and displacement crises, with over 1.2 million people forced to flee their homes. The attacks included a strike on a funeral in the Bekaa Valley town of Shmestar, killing at least 20 people. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the international community to intervene and end the aggressions.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.