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Experts are closely monitoring climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which indicate a high chance of El Niño developing this summer. A strong El Niño event could lead to severe weather conditions, including super-charged rainstorms and droughts, depending on the region. A 'super El Niño' could push 2027 to break global heat records, according to climate scientists. This phenomenon occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm up, leading to significant impacts on global weather patterns. El Niño is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It's one of three states scientists observe: La Niña, conversely, happens when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Niño or La Niña are present and surface temperatures are about average. The 'El Niño-southern oscillation' (Enso) tends to develop during spring in the northern hemisphere and shifts every three to seven years. Warming and cooling at sea surface during El Niño and La Niña can range from 1C to 3C, and have enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat, and climate disasters in different regions. Conditions are currently shifting from La Niña to a neutral pattern, according to the latest outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center. Models show a 62% chance El Niño will emerge this summer and linger until at least the end of the year. A super El Niño that occurred in 2015 brought severe drought in Ethiopia, water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records after unleashing a vicious hurricane season in the central North Pacific. A 'super' El Niño means one that is stronger, typically defined by sea surface temperatures spiking up to at least 2C. Noaa scientists have given a 1 in 4 chance that this could happen by fall or winter, with the caveat that spring forecasts are sometimes muddled. Transitions in conditions that happen in the spring can make outcomes a bit harder to predict. Experts warn that a strong or super El Niño could lead to drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.

Scientists at London's Institute of Cancer Research and the RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences in Dublin have announced a new AI-driven approach to identify how patients with advanced bowel cancer will respond to bevacizumab, a drug recently introduced by the NHS. The method uses PhenMap, an AI tool that integrates complex data on the genetic makeup of tumors, allowing researchers to track patterns of how different patients react to the drug. This development aims to spare potentially thousands of patients from being given drugs that would be ineffective in fighting their cancers. In the UK alone, nearly 10,000 cases of advanced bowel cancer are identified every year, with young adults seeing a particular rise in diagnoses. Bowel cancer has the second-highest mortality rate of any cancer, behind only lung cancer. While survival rates can be as high as 98% when caught early, the five-year survival rate for advanced bowel cancer can be as low as 10%. The study tracked 117 European bowel cancer patients who had been treated with chemotherapy and bevacizumab. Researchers identified a group of patients who all had the same gene mutation and were at a high risk of having negative reactions. The scientists behind the tests now hope to expand the number of patient samples and see if the results can be used in treatments for other types of cancer. Anguraj Sadanandam, a professor in stratification and precision medicine at the ICR, said: “Once bowel cancer spreads to other parts of the body, there are very few treatment options available for patients. It is therefore positive that patients can now access the targeted drug bevacizumab on the NHS. However, we know that the majority of patients won’t benefit from the drug, meaning thousands of people in England could be facing unpleasant side effects unnecessarily.” Sadanandam added that while the findings were encouraging, the tool would need to be tested on a larger cohort to be validated. “In future, I hope this approach will lead to a test that can be used by clinicians, to ensure patients receive personalised care that has the highest chance of working against their cancer.”

Rising energy costs stemming from the Iran war are set to deliver a sharp blow to British living standards, with the Resolution Foundation estimating that the average working‑age household could lose about £480 in income this year. Before the conflict began, the think‑tank projected a modest 0.9% rise in household earnings. Market‑driven energy price spikes have now pushed that forecast into a -0.6% decline, effectively turning a gain into a loss. Oil and gas markets have reacted dramatically: Brent crude has surged back above $100 per barrel (£74), while analysts such as JPMorgan Chase expect prices to stay elevated through the current quarter, with Goldman Sachs revising its Brent outlook to an average of $90 per barrel in Q2. For the poorest fifth of households, the outlook is equally grim. Expected income growth has been trimmed from 2.8% to 1.2%, despite a long‑overdue real‑terms increase in benefits for some low‑income families. Families with three or more children stand out as a relative bright spot. The abolition of the two‑child limit is projected to generate a 7.7% income boost for this group, contrasting with zero growth for poorer families with fewer children. Energy bills are also poised to climb this summer, erasing the £117 average savings households enjoyed after the regulator lowered the energy price cap in April, according to Jonathan Marshall, the foundation’s principal economist. In response, the Resolution Foundation is urging the UK government to fast‑track a social tariff before winter, aiming to shield the most vulnerable households from the worst of the price shock. James Smith, chief economist at the foundation, warned that “while hopes for sustained peace persist, the path of this conflict remains uncertain and energy prices stay well above pre‑war levels, meaning many households face a decline in purchasing power this year.” He added that “de‑escalation is welcome, but the damage to household finances is already largely done; the government should act now to prepare a social tariff that reaches households falling through the cracks this winter.”

Rolls-Royce has secured a significant investment of up to £599m from the UK's national wealth fund to develop the country's first small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). The funding will support Rolls-Royce's design of SMRs at Wylfa on the island of Anglesey, Wales. The investment is expected to create around 1,000 jobs at Rolls-Royce and contribute to the UK's goal of generating electricity without carbon dioxide emissions. The project also offers the potential for a large new export industry in SMRs. The UK government has embraced nuclear energy as a key component of its clean energy strategy, and this investment marks a significant milestone in the development of SMR technology. SMRs aim to produce nuclear power stations in factories, driving down costs and speeding up installation. The Wylfa site has a history of nuclear power generation, having operated from 1971 until 2015. Hitachi had previously attempted to build a new nuclear power station at the site but abandoned its plans in 2020 due to funding issues. The site was later acquired by the state-owned Great British Energy – Nuclear (GBE-N) in 2024. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, highlighted the importance of the investment, stating that it will strengthen energy security, create skilled jobs, and help build a new generation of homegrown nuclear technology that will power the UK's economy for decades to come. Tufan Erginbilgiç, chief executive of Rolls-Royce, described the investment as a critical milestone for the business and for the UK, marking the beginning of a golden age of new nuclear. The company owns the majority of Rolls-Royce SMR, alongside Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, France's BNF Resources, and the Czech utility CEZ.

Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel and global stocks fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president announced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships that have paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.US Central Command said it would start at 10am ET (5.30pm in Iran and 3pm in the UK), blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas, in effect seizing control of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The news drove oil and gas prices sharply higher again, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in energy prices, and crude ended the week below the psychological $100 a barrel threshold.Brent crude rose by nearly 7% to $101.74 a barrel on Monday morning, while US crude is up more than 8% to $104.69 a barrel. Gas prices also increased, with the British wholesale gas contract for May soaring by 11.7% to 122.5p a therm. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said last week they expected oil prices to stay high in the second quarter, above $100 a barrel, before easing in the second half of the year.Most Asian stock markets fell on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index losing 1%, while Chinese stocks rose slightly. Sentiment was helped by Beijing’s announcement of a 10-initiative strategy aimed at deepening ties with Taiwan. European stocks also fell, led by airlines including Lufthansa, Wizz Air, easyJet and British Airways parent IAG. The FTSE 100 index in London lost 0.4%, dropping 45 points to 10,555. Germany’s Dax fell 1%, Italy’s FTSE MiB slipped 0.7% and Spain’s Ibex was down 1.1%. With oil and gas prices rising sharply higher, energy companies such as BP and Shell are rallying.Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at the broker Phillip Nova, said: “In today’s environment, every barrel of risk added to oil markets carries an inflation price tag for the global economy.” She added: “The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real.”Interest rate expectations have shifted again; investors now see an 84% chance of two rate increases from the Bank of England this year to tackle rising inflation, up from 60% on Friday. Before the Iran war, the central bank was expected to cut rates. The price of gold fell 0.4% to $4,730.75 an ounce as the blockade fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Australian sprint prodigy Gout Gout stunned the athletics community on Sunday at the national championships in Sydney, clocking a legal 19.67 seconds over 200 m. The performance not only smashed his own previous national record of 20.02 seconds but also made him the first Australian to dip below the coveted 20‑second barrier. Gout’s coach and mentor, Di Sheppard, summed up the achievement with a wry grin: “How long’s a piece of string?” – a nod to the seemingly limitless potential the teenager now displays. The run placed Gout ahead of his compatriot Aidan Murphy, who finished a close second, and sparked immediate comparisons with Jamaican legend Usain Bolt. While Bolt’s all‑time best stands at 19.19 seconds (set in 2009), Gout’s 19.67 at the age of 18 already eclipses the Jamaican great’s performance at the same age, according to his camp. Only one other under‑20 athlete has ever posted a faster time – Erriyon Knighton – whose 2022 effort remains unratified after a subsequent ban. James Templeton, the 18‑year‑old’s manager, said the result was “thrilling but not shocking”, recalling that Gout ran 19.84 seconds the previous year with a marginal wind assistance, a time the team always considered his realistic benchmark. Gout himself has been fixated on breaking the sub‑20 mark ever since an illegal run earlier in his career. “I wrote down 19.75 and kept telling myself I’d hit it,” he explained. “Then I hit 19.67 – gotta love it.” Despite the historic run, the teenager shows no intention of slowing down. “I’ve just turned 18, so I definitely think I can go faster,” he said. “It’s about building consistency and there’s no pressure – I’m the only one out there.” Looking ahead, Gout will compete in the under‑20 junior championships this week, opting to skip the 200 m in Queensland and focus on the 100 m. He will then travel overseas for a high‑profile showdown with Olympic champion Noah Lyles over 150 m at the Golden Spike meet in Ostrava, scheduled for June. Should Gout continue his upward trajectory, the athletics world may soon witness a new challenger to Bolt’s long‑standing age‑group record, reshaping expectations for the next generation of sprint talent.

Scotland staged a late comeback to beat Wales 27‑22 in what was hailed as the best match of the opening weekend of the Women’s Six Nations, played at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium. The game attracted 10,569 spectators, the highest ever attendance for a Wales‑Scotland women’s clash on Welsh soil, though the venue’s 74,500‑seat capacity meant the atmosphere fell short of the stadium’s potential. Wales, led by head coach Sean Lynn, fought back from a 24‑12 halftime hole, narrowing the gap to five points in the closing minutes. Despite a valiant effort from their own try line, a mishandled line‑out in the dying seconds denied them a first Six Nations win since their 22‑20 victory over Italy in 2024. Scotland’s triumph was especially significant for new head coach Sione Fukofuka, who secured his inaugural win since taking the reins in December. Fly‑half Helen Nelson, named player of the match, praised the team’s defensive resilience and the blend of experienced and emerging talent. The match formed part of the Welsh Rugby Union’s strategy to showcase the women’s game in the national stadium, with plans to host at least one fixture there each season, hoping larger crowds will follow. Across the tournament, England set a new attendance benchmark with 77,120 fans at Twickenham for their 33‑12 win over Ireland, while upcoming fixtures promise further milestones: Scotland will play a standalone game at Murrayfield before heading to Dublin, and France, after a strong second‑half display against Italy, now sit atop the table on points difference. Looking ahead, Wales will face France at Cardiff Arms Park, where two of the three stands are already sold out, as the team aims to build on the “fight and character” displayed in Saturday’s encounter.

At the break of day in Keswick, the air still carries a chill despite it being April. From a drystone wall on St John’s Vale, I watched the sky race past Helvellyn, while bright daffodils bowed on a nearby farm as if shivering in the breeze. The surrounding trees stood still, and a shaft of sunlight ignited the bracken below the crags, turning it a vivid colour that starkly contrasted with the dead grass and dark scree. This scene illustrates a place where change has settled gently, with farms preserving their protective belts of trees that nestle comfortably against the fell’s edge.The low fields echoed with the call of curlews, and although some farmers elsewhere lament a lack of moisture, the land here was saturated; the river ran brown with flood‑water and the becks churned white. Many ewes were gathered for lambing, yet one independent ewe chose to give birth alone on a small green shelf in a ghyll above a stream. The newborn lamb was still damp and trembling when a farmhand arrived in his tractor, loading the pair onto a hay‑lined trailer to bring them back to the safety of the farm, fearing the lamb might tumble into the beck as its mother went to drink.

The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has taken a critical turn with Donald Trump's announcement that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is crucial for global oil shipments, and any disruption could have significant economic impacts. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that approaching military vessels to the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. This development has led to a surge in oil prices, with US crude oil rising 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 7% to $102.29. The blockade, set to begin on Monday morning, will be implemented by US Central Command (Centcom) and will affect all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. This move is part of a broader strategy that may include resuming limited military strikes in Iran, according to reports. The situation has drawn international attention, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stating that his government has not been asked to participate in the blockade and is keen on continuing negotiations between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed Trump's threats, asserting that they would have no effect on the Iranian nation.