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The LeadThe meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has concluded, and for Taiwan, the outcome is being viewed as a positive one. Despite fears that Trump might overturn Washington's longstanding support for the island democracy, he took a muted approach, sidestepping questions on Taiwan during the talks. Trump's Muted Approach on TaiwanTrump hailed his 'great' meeting with Xi Jinping on Thursday but avoided discussing Taiwan, a move that has been welcomed in Taipei. A White House readout of the meeting also omitted mention of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a breakaway province. The Data AnalysisXi Jinping had taken a firm tone before the meeting, declaring that 'Taiwan independence' and peace in the Taiwan strait were 'incompatible.' He warned Trump that if the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it could lead to 'clashes and even conflicts' between the US and China. Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, noted that Xi's tone was 'surprisingly firm for summit diplomacy,' signaling to Trump that Taiwan remains a sensitive issue for Beijing. The Impact AnalysisTaiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded swiftly to Xi's comments, stating that 'The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to one another.' Despite this customary sparring, Taipei is believed to be quietly pleased with the meeting's outcome, particularly Trump's silence on Taiwan. Analyst William Yang suggests that Taipei would welcome Taiwan being mentioned as little as possible, as any deviation from longstanding US policy could be seen as a negative development. The PredictionLooking ahead, experts predict that the US will continue to support Taiwan, particularly in terms of arms sales. The Trump administration has previously angered Beijing with a significant weapons package for Taiwan, and there are reports of another package worth around $14bn awaiting Trump's approval. With Taiwan's parliament recently passing a reduced defense budget to finance these purchases, there is added impetus for Trump to move forward with the deal.

The Lead: Summit Concludes Without Iran Breakthrough Donald Trump has claimed that the US and China "feel very similar" about ending the war in Iran but offered no details about a possible breakthrough during the final day of his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. The Diplomatic Stance: Shared Goals but No Clear Path "We did discuss Iran," Trump said. "We feel very similar about [how] we want it to end. We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open." He added: "We want them [Iran] to get it ended because it's a crazy thing there, a little bit crazy. And it's no good, it can't happen." The Strategic Pressure: China's Role in Iran Crisis There is much speculation about how much pressure the US is putting on China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to use its leverage with Iran to encourage the country to reopen the strait of Hormuz. US trade representative Jamieson Greer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday that the Chinese "don't want to be on the wrong side" on the Iran issue. "It's really important for China to have the strait of Hormuz open," Greer said. The Economic Calculus: China's Energy Security Concerns About half of China's crude oil passes through the waterway, but the bigger threat for the Chinese economy is if the conflict in the Middle East causes a global recession that dents demand for its exports. However, many in Beijing feel that the crisis in Iran is not China's responsibility. The Public Statements: Contradictory Messages US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said the US hoped "to convince [China] to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they're doing now and trying to do now in the Persian Gulf." But later he downplayed the idea that the US was seeking support from Beijing. "We're not asking for China's help. We don't need their help," Rubio said. The Chinese Response: Cautious Diplomacy China's foreign ministry on Friday again called for a ceasefire in Iran and said the strait of Hormuz should be opened "as soon as possible." Zhou Bo, a retired senior army colonel and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: "On Iran, China definitely wants to help but I read what Rubio said: he actually seems to shift the burden to the Chinese side. In China, we have a saying: it is like, 'Why should I clean your shit?'" The Official Readouts: Diplomatic Language The White House readout of the more than two hours of talks between Trump and Xi on Thursday said the leaders "agreed that the strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy" and that "President Xi also made clear China's opposition to the militarisation of the strait." The Chinese readout of the meeting just made a brief reference to the "situation in the Middle East." The Controversial Remark: Trump's PR Comment Trump raised eyebrows during a TV interview when he suggested that finding Iran's enriched uranium was primarily for show after Israel demanded it as a goal. "I just feel better if I got it, actually, but it's – I think, it's more for public relations than it is for anything else," the US president told Fox News host Sean Hannity. The Trade Deals: Symbolic Gestures Trump told Fox News that China agreed to buy US oil, soybeans and 200 Boeing planes. But on key issues including Taiwan, there seems to have been little by way of concrete agreement. Trump was heard saying on his way into the tea room at the Zhongnanhai garden that Xi was giving him roses for the Rose Garden, according to a White House pool report. The Strategic Balance: Shifting Power Dynamics Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council during the Biden administration, said the new Chinese formulation about US-China relations was about "locking in this current phase of strategic stalemate for the remainder of Trump's term and ideally beyond." Wu Xinbo, a professor of international studies at Fudan University and a Chinese government adviser, said the balance of power between the US and China was "shifting towards greater parity." "In the past, it always seemed as though the United States held the upper hand, constantly exerting pressure on China and taking the offensive. Now, however, it's fair to say that the two countries have reached a new point of equilibrium," Wu said.

The Beijing Summit: A Stage for Trump's Authoritarian Aesthetic On the opening day of his visit to Beijing, Donald Trump embraced the rigid ceremony of the Great Hall of the People, offering a rare public endorsement of the host nation’s grandeur. Rather than delivering policy‑laden statements, he repeatedly described China as “beautiful,” positioning himself as a guest who respects the host’s symbols of power. Pageantry Over Policy: Symbolic Gestures That Dominated the Visit Military‑style arrival with martial music, a 21‑gun salute and troops marching in lockstep. Public applause for schoolchildren waving bouquets and US flags – a theatrical moment Trump highlighted in post‑event remarks. Reference to his own 2025 Washington birthday parade, drawing a parallel between American and Chinese displays of strength. Absence of a post‑flight interview or a Truth Social post, signaling an unusual circumspection. Silence on Taiwan: What the Absence of Commentary Signifies When reporters pressed Trump about the Taiwan question, he ignored the queries, allowing Xi Jinping to issue a stark warning that mishandling the issue could lead to “clashes or even conflicts.” The deliberate silence suggests a strategic avoidance of provocation, contrasting with Trump’s usual combative style. Implications for US‑China Relations and Domestic Perceptions The overt deference displayed in Beijing may reshape how allies and opponents view the former president’s foreign‑policy outlook. By aligning himself with the visual language of an authoritarian regime, Trump reinforces his long‑standing “strongman” narrative, potentially bolstering his appeal among domestic constituencies that favor decisive, hierarchical leadership. At the same time, the episode could complicate diplomatic calculations for both Washington and Beijing, as it blurs the line between personal spectacle and statecraft. Looking Ahead: Potential Paths for the Trump‑Xi Dynamic Future interactions will likely hinge on whether the two leaders can translate ceremonial goodwill into concrete agreements. If Trump continues to prioritize symbolism over substantive dialogue, the summit may remain a showcase rather than a catalyst for policy change. Conversely, any move toward substantive trade or security talks could signal a pragmatic shift, though the underlying authoritarian aesthetic is expected to persist as a defining feature of his diplomatic style.

The Trump‑Xi Beijing Summit on Hormuz Amid Iran’s WarDuring a high‑profile meeting in Beijing on May 15, 2026, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping discussed the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House reported that Xi agreed the waterway “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” a statement aimed at tempering market anxiety as the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict drags on.Trump emphasized that China would help keep Hormuz open but pledged not to supply military equipment to Iran.Xi reiterated China’s interest in stable energy routes, positioning Beijing as a neutral facilitator.Numbers Shaping the Conflict: Ship Transits and Market RipplesIranian media disclosed that more than 30 ships, including vessels linked to Chinese firms, were permitted to pass through Hormuz overnight, signalling Tehran’s willingness to showcase a “open to all commercial ships” policy.30+ ships transited Hormuz, a notable increase amid heightened tensions.Global energy markets reacted with modest volatility, reflecting investor concern over supply security.Geopolitical Shockwaves: BRICS Alignment and Regional TensionsAt a BRICS+ summit in New Delhi, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on member states to condemn the US‑Israel war, accusing the United Arab Emirates of direct involvement in aggression against Iran. Simultaneously, third‑round talks between Lebanese and Israeli negotiators continued in Washington, while Israel prepared a lawsuit against the New York Times over a controversial article.Iran urged BRICS to oppose “Western hegemony.”UAE was accused of active participation in the war.Lebanon‑Israel ceasefire talks remain fragile, with security guarantees and Hezbollah disarmament at stake.What Comes Next: Scenarios for Hormuz, BRICS, and the Iran WarAnalysts see three likely trajectories:Optimistic path: Continued China‑US cooperation keeps Hormuz open, BRICS adopts a neutral stance, and diplomatic pressure forces a ceasefire within weeks.Stalemate path: Hormuz remains technically open but faces intermittent closures, BRICS stays divided, and the conflict drags on, further destabilising energy markets.Escalation path: Any breach of Hormuz triggers a broader naval confrontation, drawing additional powers into the war and prompting severe economic fallout.Monitoring ship traffic, BRICS statements, and the outcome of the Washington‑based Lebanon‑Israel talks will be critical to gauge which scenario unfolds.

The Lead Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has stated that ships entering the Strait of Hormuz must cooperate with Iranian naval forces. This comes after a ship was seized outside a UAE port and taken towards Iranian waters. Iran's New Shipping Rules Araghchi described Iran as invincible and said: "In our view, the strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial ships, but they must cooperate with our naval forces." He made these comments during a meeting of the Brics group of nations in India. The Data Analysis The Strait of Hormuz previously carried about a quarter of the world's seaborne supply of oil and gas. However, Iran has largely closed the strait since the start of the US-Israeli bombing campaign. Last month, the US imposed a counterblockade of Iranian ports, stranding thousands of ships. The Impact Analysis Araghchi called on Brics nations to condemn what he described as violations of international law by the US and Israel. He also stated that regional instability is a lose-lose situation for all parties, including the aggressors themselves. The Prediction Iran is trying to fend off a large rebuff at the UN, where more than 110 nations are co-sponsoring a security council resolution tabled jointly by Bahrain and the US condemning the Iranian blockade. A previous resolution was vetoed jointly by Russia and China on 7 April.

The Trump-Xi Summit: Low Expectations US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet, but expectations for a significant trade deal are low due to deep-seated mistrust and competing interests between the two nations. Setting the Stage for the Summit Before arriving for his high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump aimed to set expectations high. He said he’d urge Xi to “open up” China’s economy and announced a delegation of top business executives, including Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, to accompany him. The Data Analysis: Economic Implications The average US tariff on Chinese goods stood at 47.5 percent after the South Korea summit, up from 3.1 percent before Trump’s first term, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. China’s average tariff on US goods stood at 31.9 percent, up from 8.4 percent in 2018, according to the think tank. Two-way goods trade amounted to about $415bn in 2025, down sharply from its 2022 peak of $690bn. The Impact Analysis: US-China Relations “It is important to be clear eyed about the state of relations here,” Claire E. Reade, a senior counsel at Arnold & Porter who previously worked on China at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), told Al Jazeera. “China does not trust the US, and China wants to beat the US in what it sees as long term global competition,” Reade said. “This limits what can be agreed.” The Prediction: Future Outlook “A realistic ‘opening up’ of the Chinese market would likely focus first on sectors where the economic complementarity is most obvious,” Taiyi Sun, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, told Al Jazeera. “Agricultural goods such as soybeans and beef, as well as high-value-added manufacturing products like Boeing aircraft, are natural areas for expansion because they match existing Chinese demand with American export strengths.”

During a high‑profile state visit to Beijing, President Donald Trump met with President Xi Jinping to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s foreign minister used the occasion to urge BRICS members to denounce the ongoing US‑Israel conflict, highlighting the lingering shadow of the unresolved US‑Iran war.Trump and Xi Discuss Keeping the Strait of Hormuz OpenThe White House confirmed that the two leaders focused on ensuring the waterway remains free for energy shipments.Both leaders agreed the strait “must remain open to support the free flow of energy”.The discussion came amid heightened tensions over Iranian oil exports.Iran’s Appeal to BRICS Nations Over US‑Israel WarIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on fellow BRICS members to condemn what he described as a violation of international law.Araghchi framed the US‑Israel actions as an “aggression” against Iran.The appeal seeks to rally economic and political backing from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.Strategic Implications for US‑China‑Iran RelationsThe juxtaposition of US‑China dialogue with Iran’s diplomatic push signals a complex triangular dynamic:China may leverage its BRICS ties to balance US pressure on Iran.The US faces a diplomatic dilemma: maintain a strong partnership with China while confronting Iranian challenges.Potential Diplomatic Trajectories in the Coming WeeksAnalysts anticipate several possible developments:China could mediate a de‑escalation framework for the Strait of Hormuz.BRICS may issue a joint statement, testing the bloc’s cohesion on security issues.The US might intensify sanctions on Iran, risking further strain on its China relationship.

A Diplomatic Appeal Amid Heightened TensionsIran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir‑Abdollahian, publicly called on the five BRICS members to denounce the United States and Israel for their recent military actions in the region, framing the conflict as a violation of international law.BRICS Nations Targeted for a Joint CondemnationIran addressed Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, urging a coordinated statement.The request was made during a press conference in Tehran on 14 May 2026.Amir‑Abdollahian highlighted the need for “collective moral responsibility” among emerging powers.Political Focus Over Economic MetricsNo specific financial data or trade figures were cited, underscoring that the appeal is driven by geopolitical considerations rather than immediate economic calculations.Potential Ripple Effects on Global AlliancesA unified BRICS stance could pressure the U.S. to reconsider its Middle‑East policy.China and Russia’s response will be pivotal, given their strategic ties with both Iran and the West.India’s traditionally non‑aligned posture may be tested by the request.What the Next Diplomatic Moves Could Look LikeAnalysts expect BRICS foreign ministries to convene informal talks within weeks, possibly resulting in a joint communiqué. If adopted, the statement could mark a significant shift toward a more coordinated opposition to Western military interventions, influencing future UN debates and regional security dynamics.

The LeadA third round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon has kicked off in Washington, DC, days before the expiration of a ceasefire that hardly halted Israeli attacks and Hezbollah's response to them. The Event DetailsThe talks, which began on Thursday, represent a step towards more serious negotiations, with higher-level envoys from Lebanon and Israel taking part after the initial preparatory sessions were headed by the ambassadors of the two countries to Washington. The Parties InvolvedLebanese officials are hoping that the two-day negotiations will yield a new ceasefire deal and pave the way for tackling a series of thorny issues, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Lebanon's envoy heading up Thursday's talks, Simon Karam, is an attorney and well-connected former Lebanese ambassador to the United States. On the Israeli side, Deputy National Security Adviser Yossi Draznin was set to attend. The Impact AnalysisUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who attended the first Israel-Lebanon meetings in Washington in April, was with US President Donald Trump on a visit to China and did not attend Thursday's session. Hezbollah, meanwhile, is not part of the talks and has been vocally opposed to Lebanon engaging in direct negotiations with Israel. The PredictionStill, there is optimism. The cessation of hostilities agreement is due to expire on Sunday, so there is an expectation that this will be front and centre in discussions. The immediate objective is to prevent the situation along the border from escalating into a broader regional conflict.