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The US war on Iran has now entered its sixth week, with the conflict showing no signs of abating. What was initially touted as a 'precise, overwhelming military campaign' to eliminate 'an imminent nuclear threat' has instead become a protracted and costly endeavor. The war has resulted in rising costs for the US in military equipment and personnel, and has had a significant impact on energy markets, with forecasts of a potential global economic recession in the event of a prolonged conflict.The conflict has also highlighted the Iranian regime's capacity for asymmetric warfare, with the country deploying cheap drones and missiles to disrupt energy facilities and compromise economies in the Gulf region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has also had a significant impact on the war effort, with the US and its allies struggling to reopen it.The US's failure to understand the Iranian regime's subjective complex dynamics has been a significant factor in the conflict's prolongation. The regime's ability to withstand pain and prolonged escalation without a clear scenario of military victory against a superpower has been underestimated, and its proxy groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have proven to be effective in advancing its interests and preventing outcomes that weaken or isolate it further.The conflict has also highlighted the diverging definitions of victory between the US and Iran, with the US seeking a swift and decisive victory, while Iran is focused on maintaining its viability on its own terms in the face of American hegemony. As the war continues, the question remains: how will this conflict end?

Eight OPEC+ participants have consented to raise daily oil‑production quotas by 206,000 barrels for May, a modest adjustment given that several key producers are constrained by the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran that has sealed the Strait of Hormuz.The strategic waterway has been blocked since late February, halting shipments from the core OPEC+ exporters Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, thereby tightening global supply.During a virtual session, the eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—endorsed the May quota increase and reiterated their commitment to monitor market dynamics closely.The joint statement highlighted ongoing vigilance over market conditions and expressed concern that attacks on energy infrastructure make restoration costly and time‑intensive, further limiting supply availability.Although the increase accounts for less than 2% of the volume lost due to the Hormuz closure, OPEC+ sources told Reuters the decision signals a willingness to expand output once the strait reopens.Crude prices have surged to around $120 per barrel, a four‑year high, driving up transport‑fuel costs worldwide.JPMorgan warned that if the blockage persists into mid‑May, oil could breach $150 a barrel, an unprecedented level.The May adjustment mirrors the April decision made on March 1, yet the conflict is estimated to have removed between 12 and 15 million barrels per day—approximately 15% of global supply.Iran has allowed certain regional vessels to navigate the strait; Iraqi crude was observed transiting, and Oman is conducting talks with Tehran to facilitate smoother passage.U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to expand attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by Monday.

The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves throughout Europe, sparking concerns over global oil supplies and regional stability. Despite the growing unease, US President Donald Trump has yet to offer a concrete plan to address the situation.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for international oil shipments, was unexpectedly closed, causing widespread disruptions. European nations are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of this closure, given their reliance on imported oil.As the international community scrambles for a response, Trump's lack of a clear strategy has raised eyebrows. The situation remains fluid, with many calling for swift and decisive action to mitigate the effects of the closure.

Oman and Iran convened deputy foreign minister‑level talks on Saturday to discuss measures that could guarantee the smooth passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a statement from the Omani Foreign Ministry.The meeting, described as an "undersecretary‑level" dialogue, was attended by specialists from both ministries, underscoring the technical nature of the discussions.Officials said the parties examined possible options to ensure safe transit amid the volatile regional environment, with a series of proposals now slated for further study.Tracking data from the shipping journal Lloyd’s List showed that, on Sunday, three Omani vessels – two large oil supertankers and an LNG carrier – navigated the strait outside Iran’s "approved corridor" near Larak Island, sailing unusually close to the Omani coast.Earlier in the week, an Iranian official announced a draft protocol with Oman aimed at monitoring traffic through the strait, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil supplies and has been heavily restricted as retaliation for the ongoing US‑Israeli war on Iran.Since the conflict erupted on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has permitted limited transits for vessels from Pakistan, France and Turkey, while an estimated about 3,000 ships remain stranded in the region.The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint; any disruption fuels market volatility and compels oil‑importing nations to scramble for alternative supplies.U.S. President Donald Trump took to social media over the weekend, warning that he would unleash “all Hell” if the waterway is not reopened by Monday, highlighting the geopolitical pressure surrounding the passage.Egypt’s foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, held separate calls with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and regional counterparts, including Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, to explore de‑escalation proposals.Professor Amin Saikal, an emeritus scholar at the Australian National University, cautioned that an expansion of the war would be “hell for the whole region” and stressed the urgent need for a negotiated settlement, though he noted that diplomatic avenues appear increasingly narrow.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters announced on Saturday that Iraqi ships are free to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for global energy supplies. This decision exempts Iraq from all restrictions in the strait, with controls only applying to 'enemy countries'.The announcement reflects Iran's easing of its stranglehold on the strait, which has been effectively blockaded since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28. Despite this, maritime traffic has seen an increase in recent weeks, with 53 transits recorded last week, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence.Iran's military command emphasized its 'profound respect for Iraq's national sovereignty' and praised Iraq's struggle against the US. This move comes in response to US President Donald Trump's demands for Tehran to make a deal or relinquish control of the waterway, warning that 'all hell' would ensue within 48 hours otherwise. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters rejected Trump's demand, calling it a 'helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action'. The blockade has significantly impacted global energy markets, pushing up fuel prices and prompting emergency energy conservation measures in many countries. Brent crude has hovered above $109 a barrel, with predictions of further price surges if the strait remains blocked. Iraq's oil production, which provides most of Baghdad's revenues, has been particularly affected, falling to 1.2 million barrels a day from 4.3 million barrels.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently visited Qatar, meeting with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to address pressing energy concerns amid the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel. This meeting marks a significant step in Italy's efforts to bolster its relationships with key Gulf nations and ensure a stable energy supply.The discussions between Meloni and the Qatari leader focused on energy issues and potential measures to mitigate the shocks caused by the Iran war. Italy, being highly dependent on energy imports, is particularly concerned about the rising energy prices resulting from Iran's effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which approximately 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas transits.During the meeting, Meloni expressed Italy's readiness to contribute to the rehabilitation of Qatari energy infrastructure, which is essential for global energy security. This commitment underscores Italy's proactive approach to addressing the energy crisis and its willingness to collaborate with Qatar to ensure a stable energy supply.The Qatari Emir's office stated that both sides stressed the need for de-escalation and prioritized political dialogue and diplomacy to contain the current crisis in the Middle East and its repercussions on energy and supply chains. They also reviewed bilateral cooperation between Italy and Qatar, exploring ways to support and develop it in various fields, particularly in the economy and energy sectors.Since the beginning of the war at the end of February, Iran has targeted US and Israeli targets in the region, as well as Gulf countries, including Qatar. Iran's attacks on Qatar's energy installations, such as the missile strike on Ras Laffan Industrial City, have caused significant damage and are expected to affect Doha's natural gas export capacity.Meloni's trip to the Gulf aimed to strengthen relations with these countries and reiterate Italy's support against Iranian attacks. As the first leader of a European Union or NATO country to travel to the region since the war broke out, Meloni's visit underscores Italy's commitment to regional stability and energy security.

A tragic incident occurred at the Habshan gas facility in the United Arab Emirates, the country's largest natural gas processing site, after debris from an intercepted attack caused two fires. Local authorities reported that at least one person was killed and others were wounded.The Abu Dhabi Media Office stated that the debris, resulting from a successful interception by air defense systems, led to significant damage and four minor injuries – two Pakistani nationals and two Egyptian nationals. The incident occurred during a period of heightened tensions, with Iran continuing to fire missiles and drones across the Middle East since the US and Israel launched a war against the country on February 28.The UAE has been severely impacted, with several energy sites and civilian facilities targeted. In the past 24 hours alone, Emirati officials reported that at least 18 ballistic missiles, four cruise missiles, and 47 drones were fired from Iran. This surge in attacks prompted the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to urge the United Nations Security Council to take measures to halt Iranian attacks and protect maritime corridors.The situation remains critical, with Iran effectively halting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, causing prices to soar.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments, has become a focal point of international tension. There are growing concerns about the possibility of military intervention to ensure its reopening, following recent developments in the region. The strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is vital for the global economy, with a significant portion of the world's oil supply passing through it. Any disruption to this waterway could have far-reaching impacts on global energy markets and economic stability. While details about specific plans for military action remain scarce, the international community is closely monitoring the situation, aware of the potential for conflict to escalate. Diplomatic efforts are underway to address the underlying issues and find a peaceful resolution. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture for international relations, with implications extending beyond the region. The global community remains vigilant, hoping for a peaceful outcome that ensures the free flow of commerce and stability in this vital region.

US President Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric against Iran, suggesting that the United States aims to seize the country's oil industry. In a recent social media post, Trump stated that with more time, the US can 'easily open the Hormuz Strait, take the oil, and make a fortune.' This assertion marks a significant escalation in his statements regarding Iran. The strategic Hormuz Strait, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has been effectively blocked by Iran early in the conflict, leading to a surge in energy prices. Trump's comments come as the US and Israel continue their military campaign against Iran, with the war now entering its sixth week. Under international law, specifically the doctrine of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1962, oil and minerals are considered to belong to the countries where they are located. Trump's repeated calls for 'taking the oil' in countries involved in US military actions, including Iraq and Venezuela, have been controversial. Despite the assassinations of top Iranian officials and daily bombardments by the US and Israel, the Iranian government remains in control of the country's natural resources. The US has no publicly known military presence on the ground in Iran, and Trump did not provide details on how his administration plans to control Iran's oil. Trump's suggestion that replicating the Venezuelan model in Iran is possible but would require prolonging the war has sparked concerns. He expressed a preference for taking Iran's oil but noted that the US public may not have the patience for a prolonged conflict. Legal experts have criticized Trump's threats to bomb civilian infrastructure, including power stations and water desalination plants, as potential war crimes under international law. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson has likened the US attacks to ISIS tactics, highlighting the devastating impact on civilian populations.