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Japan has initiated the release of oil from its emergency reserves in response to the escalating global energy crisis triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict. The crisis has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies.The decision to release oil reserves was announced on Monday through a notice published in the Japanese government's official gazette. This move follows Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's announcement last week to unilaterally release 80 million barrels of oil from stockpiles due to supply concerns arising from Iran's threats against shipping in the strait.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also pledged to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels to mitigate the market impact of the conflict. Despite these efforts, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising as much as 3% on Sunday before easing slightly on Monday. As of 05:45 GMT, Brent stood at $104.85 a barrel, marking a more than 40% increase since the start of the war on February 28.Japan, being one of the world's largest oil importers, relies on overseas fossil fuels for about 80% of its energy needs. The country also holds one of the world's largest oil reserves, sufficient to meet 254 days of domestic consumption. Tokyo has stated it has no plans to deploy its navy to the strait following a call from US President Donald Trump for other countries to help unblock the waterway.

Oil prices are continuing to rise as markets see no end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The critical waterway, which usually transports about one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been brought to a standstill by Iran in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on the country.Brent crude, the most important benchmark for global prices, rose as much as 3 percent on Sunday to top $106 a barrel, before easing slightly early on Monday to $104.63 a barrel, up nearly 1.5 percent. This represents a more than 40 percent increase in global oil prices since the start of the war.US President Donald Trump has called on other countries to help Washington reopen the Strait, but his proposal has received a muted response. None of the countries he appealed to by name – including China, Japan, France, and the UK – have publicly committed to deploying their navies to secure the strait. Japan and Australia have both stated they have no plans to send ships to the critical waterway.The closure of the strait has resulted in what the International Energy Agency has called the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre, no more than five ships have passed through the strait each day since the start of the war, compared with a historical average of 138 daily transits. At least 16 commercial vessels have been attacked in the region since the war began on February 28.Trump has repeatedly stated he is willing to deploy the US Navy to escort commercial shipping through the strait if necessary. However, Trump administration officials have said that warships will not be deployed to the waterway until Tehran's military capacity has been further degraded.

US President Donald Trump has requested a delay in his highly anticipated trip to China, initially scheduled for March 31-April 2, by about a month. The decision comes amid the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which has resulted in significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East. “We've requested that we delay it a month or so,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “There's no tricks to it either. It's very simple. We've got a war going on. I think it's important that I be here.” The delay underscores how the Iran war has upended Trump's foreign policy agenda and risks magnifying tensions between Washington and Beijing. The war has joined trade and Taiwan as among the spectrum of issues separating the world's two biggest economies. Trump's request has been largely rebuffed so far, with China not directly responding to his request to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran says is closed to US and Israeli-linked vessels. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil usually transits. US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said earlier on Monday that Trump may need to delay the trip due to coordinating the war effort, not because of China's unresponsiveness to Trump's request or because of any trade disagreements. “The president wants to remain in DC to coordinate the war effort. Traveling abroad at a time like this may not be optimal,” Bessent said. In related trade negotiations, the Chinese showed openness to potential additional purchases of US agricultural goods, including poultry, beef, and non-soya bean row crops, during talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris.

The economic fallout of the US and Israel's war with Iran is being felt across the globe, with Gulf economies suffering some of the worst damage. Iran has launched continuous attacks on Gulf states since the onset of the conflict on February 28, arguing that it is targeting military bases used by the US for the war.Gulf nations have rejected Tehran's claims, insisting the attacks on them are unjustified. The Iranian strikes have upended energy production and inflicted major disruptions to tourism and travel, putting the region at risk of some of the most severe economic harm since the 1990-1991 Gulf War.According to Khaled Almezaini, an associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed University in Dubai, the region is likely losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day in economic activity due to disruptions to aviation, tourism, shipping routes, and energy exports.Middle Eastern oil producers' daily output declined from 21 million barrels to 14 million barrels after a little more than a week of conflict, according to Rystad Energy. Output is expected to drop substantially further if commercial shipping continues to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to Tehran's threats.Goldman Sachs estimated that Qatar and Kuwait could see their GDPs plunge 14% if the war lasts until the end of April, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia facing contractions of 5% and 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, S&P; Global Ratings has affirmed a 'stable outlook' for Qatar, citing the country's large financial buffers.The war has also spilled over into other critical sectors, particularly tourism and travel, which accounts for about 11% of the GCC's GDP. Airspace closures and restrictions led to 37,000 flight cancellations from February 28 to March 8 alone.In an analysis published last week, the World Travel & Tourism Council estimated that the conflict was costing the region $600m in daily spending by international visitors. The economic fallout could be comparable to historic regional crises if the war drags on.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused the United States and Israel of causing disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil shipments pass.In a phone conversation with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Araghchi called for an end to what he described as military aggression against Iran by the US and Israel. He emphasized that every country and international institution concerned with peace and security must condemn these actions.The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has led to significant increases in oil prices, with Brent crude up 2.5% to $105.70 on Monday, more than 40% higher than before the conflict began on February 28.Several countries are reportedly in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for their ships. A senior adviser to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had announced on March 2 that the strait was effectively 'closed' and threatened to set transiting ships 'ablaze'.US President Donald Trump has proposed a naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but so far, no countries have pledged to join. French President Emmanuel Macron has stated that France will not participate in operations to unblock the strait, but may consider joining an escort system once fighting ends.The European Union is seeking diplomatic solutions to guarantee safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz and mitigate the impact of soaring energy prices on global markets.

US lawmakers, including Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar, are taking steps to regulate prediction markets by introducing the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. This legislation seeks to prohibit wagers on sensitive events such as government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The proposed bill comes in response to concerns that betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have allowed users to profit from geopolitical conflicts, including the US and Israel's joint strikes against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Critics argue that these platforms enable individuals with insider knowledge to influence government decisions and profit from them. Murphy emphasized that the legislation aims to prevent the monetization of sensitive events, stating, "What happens to us spiritually when every moral question in this country becomes a market?" He added that certain matters should not be influenced by the potential for profit. The lawmakers cited examples of significant profits made by users on Polymarket, including a $500,000 profit from a bet on Iran's supreme leader being out of power hours before a strike. They suggested that such trades may have been made by individuals with insider knowledge from within the White House or close to the administration. The BETS OFF Act is part of a broader effort to regulate the prediction market industry. Other proposed legislation includes measures to establish federal consumer protections, ban elected officials from profiting from prediction markets, and impose age verification for users.

Iran has started to permit a limited but increasing number of commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, as indicated by ship tracking data. On Monday, eight non-Iranian flagged vessels were detected in the strategic waterway. This represents a notable increase, with MarineTraffic recording nine transits on Monday and Sunday, compared to just five over the preceding two days. According to Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, the growing number of ships rerouting via Iran's territorial waters suggests that Tehran is granting 'permission-based transits to friendly countries.' The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies, has seen traffic plummet by more than 95 percent since the onset of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This drastic reduction has led to a surge in oil prices, which have risen above $100 per barrel, an increase of over 40 percent. Iranian officials have issued mixed messages regarding the strait's status. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi stated that the strait was 'open, but closed to our enemies'. Conversely, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned earlier in the month that any ship attempting passage would be set ablaze. The situation has drawn international attention, with US President Donald Trump asserting that Washington does not require other countries' assistance to secure shipping traffic through the strait. Meanwhile, the US military reported dropping bunker buster bombs on 'hardened' Iranian missile sites located near the strait, citing the risk these posed to international shipping.

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has taken a significant turn with strikes on a gas field and energy production facilities. These actions are likely to have a ripple effect on the global economy, raising power, food, and other prices worldwide. As gas supplies dwindle and costs escalate, the impact will be felt across the globe.The effects of this conflict will not be limited to the Gulf region; they will echo far beyond, affecting economies and consumers worldwide. The key question is: who will feel the impact the most, and how far could this shock spread?Expert insights from Justin Dargin, an energy expert at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, provide valuable context to understanding the potential consequences of this escalation.

US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause in attacks on Iran's power infrastructure for five days. The move comes after Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz or risk US attacks on its power plants.Iran's Response to US Ultimatum: Iran threatened to attack power plants in Israel and the Gulf if its own power plants were targeted. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it would hit power plants in Israel as well as any supplying electricity to military bases hosting US troops and assets in the region.Potential Targets: Iran could target Israeli power plants, including Orot Rabin north of Tel Aviv, with a capacity of around 3,900 megawatts, and Rutenberg in Ashkelon, with a capacity of around 2,250 megawatts. Iran also mentioned that it would target financial entities that finance US military assets, including US Treasury bonds.Energy Infrastructure: Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have already had significant impacts. Qatar's state-run energy firm, QatarEnergy, halted LNG production following Iranian attacks on its operational facilities, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue. Saudi Arabia also shut down operations at the Ras Tanura plant, its biggest domestic oil refinery.Financial and Corporate Entities: Iran could target large US companies with Israeli links, including Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle. Iranian officials also mentioned that they would target US Treasury bonds and entities that finance US military assets.Other Critical Infrastructure: Iran's foreign minister accused the US of striking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island off the coast of Iran, cutting off the water supply to 30 villages. Bahrain also reported that an Iranian drone caused material damage to one of its desalination plants.