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The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping route blocked by Iran since the US-Israeli attacks began, is having ripple effects around the world. If the strait remains closed, transport blockages across the Middle East could cause significant shocks to food and medicine supplies in the UK.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is hosting a meeting with 35 other countries to discuss reopening the strait. Experts warn that a prolonged closure could lead to food price inflation doubling in England and medicine shortages due to disrupted supply chains.Impact on Food SuppliesProf Tim Lang from City St George's, University of London, warns that 'all bets are off' for food supplies if the crisis continues. Rising fossil fuel prices will impact food transportation and production, as fuel is used to transport food and produce fertilizers and other inputs.The farming sector is already facing problems, with dairy production hit due to delayed fertilizer purchases and salad vegetable and dairy producers facing disruptions. Iranian imports like pistachios and saffron are also affected.Impact on Medicine SuppliesWhile there's no hard evidence of medicine shortages yet, price increases are being seen, which can signal disruptions in the medicine supply chain. Iran does not manufacture many medicines but affects the sector through rising energy costs and transport links between major pharmaceutical-producing countries and the UK.David Weeks from Moody's notes that shortages are driven by delays in petrochemical precursors for active pharmaceutical ingredients. Medicine stockpiles in European countries, including the UK, can last up to six months, but long-term conflicts could lead to more severe shortages.

The US government has taken legal action against Illinois for attempting to regulate the rapidly growing online prediction market industry. The lawsuit, filed in Chicago federal court, claims that Illinois' efforts to shut down so-called designated contract markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are unlawful.Online prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of events, from Oscar winners to military conflicts. These platforms classify their offerings as 'event derivatives,' which fall under federal commodities law and are overseen by the CFTC. This classification allows them to operate in all 50 states for users 18 and older.Illinois introduced legislation earlier this year that would impose strict regulations on prediction markets, including an effective ban on sports-related trades, advertising restrictions, and age verification measures. The CFTC argues that this legislation intrudes on its exclusive authority to regulate national swaps markets.The lawsuit is the first by the CFTC to block state gaming regulators from policing operators of prediction markets. It cites cease-and-desist letters sent by the Illinois gaming board to companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging violations of Illinois gambling laws.The federal lawsuit names Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul as defendants. The case highlights the ongoing debate over the regulation of prediction markets, with some arguing they are essentially gambling operations and others seeing them as federally regulated financial exchanges.Congress is also considering federal measures to regulate prediction markets, including a bipartisan bill introduced by US senators that would ban federally regulated platforms from allowing wagers on sporting events.

It's been 12 months since Donald Trump's 'liberation day' on April 2, 2025, when the US president introduced tariffs on nearly every country the US did business with. The move sent shockwaves through the global economy, causing chaos in Washington and beyond. Experts say that if Trump had spent the last 14 months on the golf course instead of in the White House, the US economy would be in a better place. The wholesale slashing of government jobs and defunding of US aid agencies had already signaled that Trump was in a hurry to upset institutions he considered profligate or useless. Investors quickly understood that chaos was an essential tool in Trump's armoury. Almost as soon as he was inaugurated, there was a steady decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Investors sold assets denominated in dollars and bought assets elsewhere: Europe, Asia, South America. Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard, said: 'If you think that discouraging investors from buying assets in the US is a victory, then you don’t believe in a growing economy.' He added that Trump's policies had led to a decline in US manufacturing jobs and a growing trade deficit. The data supports Perkins' claims. US companies stopped hiring almost as soon as liberation day was announced. Significant revisions in February to data covering 2025 pushed payroll employment down by 403,000 jobs, resulting in the addition of just 181,000 jobs last year. This small boost is set against the 163 million people who are employed in the US. Russ Mould, the investment director of the British stockbroker AJ Bell, said: 'America is still home to the world’s largest economy and its reserve currency, as well as the globe’s largest equity and bond markets, but investors continue to reassess their exposure one year on from liberation day.' The next few months of steadily increasing confidence levels followed probably the calmest period in the second Trump presidency. But sentiment began to fall again in the autumn as the White House battled with Congress over the federal budget deficit and much of the public sector was shut down. A poll by the University of Michigan showed consumer confidence at a near record low at the end of 2025. A six-month moving average produced by the Conference Board showed every generation, from baby boomers to gen Xers, had lost confidence in the economy over the past year. Trump’s liberation day executive order stated: 'The decline of US manufacturing capacity threatens the US economy in other ways, including through the loss of manufacturing jobs.' However, the US manufacturing sector shed 100,000 jobs between January 2025 and March 2026. The ratio of manufacturing workers to total nonfarm employment fell to the lowest point since 1939. Bryan Riley, the director of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s free trade initiative, said: 'One year after liberation day, the evidence is in. Tariffs failed even by the Trump administration’s own terms. They did not shrink the trade deficit, did not revitalise manufacturing and did not help farmers. It would be a mistake to replace one set of failed tariffs with another.' Some major US companies have redirected their investments to Europe, but China has proved to be one of the main beneficiaries. In the year to February 2026, China’s industrial profits increased by 15.2%. It's a boom that Beijing will struggle to repeat should Chinese companies face fuel and energy shortages and price hikes. But the decline of two major powers can only be to China’s gain.

The EFL Championship kicks off an action‑filled Easter weekend, with promotion, playoff and relegation battles all still wide open. Coventry City, under Frank Lampard, sit comfortably in the automatic promotion places, enjoying an 11‑point cushion over third‑placed Ipswich Town ahead of their upcoming clash with Derby County. One of the marquee fixtures sees Middlesbrough host Millwall. Millwall manager Alex Neil, while downplaying the match, hinted that a win could thrust the Lions back into the promotion conversation for the first time since the early 2000s. At the Hawthorns, Wrexham take on West Bromwich Albion in a game that could keep their playoff hopes alive. West Brom, after a long winless spell, have finally found form under James Morrison, securing back‑to‑back victories. In a surprising managerial change, Bristol City have dismissed Gerhard Struber and appointed a 78‑year‑old interim coach, referred to as “Mr Roy”, who will debut against Charlton Athletic. Meanwhile, Sheffield United host Swansea City in a mid‑table encounter that promises a lively atmosphere at Bramall Lane. Relegation‑battling Sheffield Wednesday aim to end a 33‑game winless streak when they face Stoke City, needing six points from their final seven games to avoid the drop. Leicester City remain under pressure after a points deduction, fighting alongside Oxford, Portsmouth, West Brom and Blackburn to stay clear of League One. Conversely, Lincoln City could clinch promotion – their first return to the second tier since 1961 – with a home win over AFC Wimbledon. In a side note, former Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard praised Mohamed Salah’s extended stay at Anfield, highlighting the former’s influence on the Egyptian striker’s decision to remain.

A virtual gathering of over 40 countries will set the agenda for a global military planning meeting next week, focusing on clearing sea mines and rescuing vessels immobilised in the Strait of Hormuz.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper opened the summit by condemning what she described as “Iranian recklessness” that endangers global economic security and threatens the flow of vital energy supplies.The discussions are proceeding without direct US involvement; instead, the UK, France, Germany, Australia and several Gulf states are exploring practical steps to restore access to the strategic waterway.President Donald Trump has urged nations that depend on the strait to “build up some delayed courage” and “just grab it,” a comment that has drawn criticism from UK officials.The strait transports 10‑25% of the world’s oil and gas. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that reopening the lane “will not be easy,” given the scale of the disruption.Cooper outlined a multi‑pronged approach: diplomatic and economic pressure, reassurance for industry, insurers and energy markets, and coordinated actions to guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers.She cited more than 25 Iranian attacks on vessels, estimating around 20,000 seafarers on roughly 2,000 ships are currently stranded.Highlighting the broader stakes, Cooper referenced World Bank projections that a prolonged blockage could push 9 million people into food insecurity and trigger unsustainable spikes in oil and food prices worldwide.At a follow‑up session scheduled for Tuesday, military planners will consider how to marshal collective defensive capabilities, including the removal of mines that Tehran may have laid to sink ships.The meeting will be hosted by Britain’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, London, with many international leaders joining virtually.Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch warned President Trump not to abandon “a mess he’s made” in the Middle East, echoing former US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s dictum, “if you break it, you own it.”Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said he was not “angry” with Trump for entering the conflict but found the president’s press briefings “difficult to interpret.”Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey urged Prime Minister Starmer to “step up” plans and present a clear alternative for reopening the oil‑ and gas‑laden shipping route.

UK drivers are being urged to hunt for the cheapest petrol as they prepare for an estimated 21.7 million journeys over the Easter bank‑holiday weekend – the busiest on the roads since 2022. Data from the RAC shows that the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol jumped 20p in March, rising from 132.83p on 1 April to 152.83p on 31 April. This is the fastest monthly increase on record, eclipsing the previous high of 16.6p recorded in June 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. RAC policy chief Simon Williams called the rise “unprecedented” but stressed that travellers should fill up as usual and seek the cheapest forecourts nearby ahead of the holiday rush. To ease congestion, National Highways will temporarily suspend 1,500 miles (2,400 km) of roadworks on motorways and major A‑roads in England from Thursday through Easter Monday. The AA predicts this will accommodate roughly 1 million additional trips compared with last year, with traffic expected to peak on Thursday when schools break up. Analysts warn that the sharp fuel‑price surge may curb spending on trips. Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the Wealth Club, noted that shorter journeys and fewer on‑the‑road purchases, such as chocolate treats, are likely. AA survey data shows that just over half of travellers plan to drive less than 50 miles, 5 % expect journeys of 50‑100 miles, about 1 % aim for 100‑200 miles, and fewer than 1 % anticipate trips beyond 200 miles. Rail disruptions are set to push more motorists onto the motorways. Engineering works will suspend west‑coast mainline services between London Euston and Milton Keynes from Good Friday to 8 April, and there will be no trains on several routes—including Preston to Lancaster (4‑5 April), Winchester to Southampton, and Herne Bay to Ramsgate—while services between London Waterloo and Clapham Junction will be reduced. Despite domestic challenges, the travel trade body ABTA estimates that 2 million UK residents will travel abroad this weekend. EasyJet is gearing up for its busiest Easter period yet, planning to operate 16,000 flights from UK airports over the two‑week school break. Passengers heading to the European Union should also prepare for potential two‑hour delays due to the rollout of the EU’s Entry‑Exit System, which requires third‑country nationals, including UK travellers, to submit photographs and fingerprints before entering the Schengen area.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

Ministers are rewriting planning rules to make it easier to approve intensive livestock farms, despite ongoing concerns about water pollution, air quality and local opposition.Freedom of Information documents obtained by the Guardian reveal that proposed changes to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) have been discussed in response to lobbying by the country’s leading chicken producers for at least two years.The British Poultry Council (BPC) told farming minister Angela Eagle last autumn that “access to more growing space is the number one priority for the poultry meat sector.”In a submission to the government’s farm profitability review, the BPC argued that the need for a solution—whether through planning reform or land‑use policy—“dwarfs all other issues currently facing us.”Ahead of a January round‑table with Eagle, the BPC urged the government to “develop national planning direction and oversight for food production … to safeguard the UK’s long‑term food security.”Eagle responded that the government has “announced proposals to reform the planning system to more quickly unlock food and farming infrastructure,” emphasizing that “planning should enable ambition, not stifle it.”Her briefing notes directly linked the proposed changes to industry lobbying, describing planning reform as one of the sector’s “biggest asks” and noting that the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government are working to “find solutions to planning barriers to poultry sheds and other infrastructure necessary for food production.”The draft NPPF includes several measures that could ease approval of new intensive livestock developments: a higher threshold for refusing applications on environmental grounds, reduced scope for local authorities to adopt tougher rules, greater weight given to “domestic food production,” and a new emphasis on “better accommodation for livestock.”The industry says it needs extra space to house chickens because of voluntary commitments to lower stocking density. Critics point out that these welfare commitments are not legally binding and that planning conditions do not guarantee long‑term compliance. Recent withdrawals by restaurant chains from the Better Chicken Commitment underscore the controversy.Richard Griffiths, chief executive of the BPC, said the reforms are needed to accommodate welfare improvements rather than to expand production, noting a voluntary reduction in stocking density from 38 kg to 30 kg per square metre.Griffiths warned that failing to support domestic production could increase imports, and the BPC has called for food production to be classified as “critical national infrastructure.”Prof. Paul Behrens of the University of Oxford countered that the food‑security case for intensive poultry is “illusory” because the sector depends on imported feed and vitamins and is vulnerable to disease outbreaks such as avian flu.Opposition to poultry megafarms is organised, with local residents raising concerns over water pollution, air quality and the climate crisis. The Environment Agency estimates agriculture accounts for roughly 70 % of nitrate and 25‑30 % of phosphorus pollution in UK waterways, and runoff from intensive poultry units contributes to that burden.Last year, Norfolk councillors rejected Cranswick’s plan for a 900,000‑bird chicken farm after the company failed to demonstrate that the development would not cause “significant adverse effects on protected sites.”The BPC has also urged early intervention by the Planning Inspectorate to minimise delays, arguing that centralised oversight would bring objectivity to a system where “naysayers, particularly via social media, have a disproportionate sway in the decision‑making process.”Campaign group Communities Against Factory Farming warned that the proposed regime “risks embedding decades of industrial livestock land use in rural and green‑belt locations without adequate scrutiny,” giving “substantial weight” to the economic benefits of intensification.A government spokesperson rejected claims that the NPPF proposals are driven by lobbying, stating that they have been carefully considered to balance sector support with broader priorities such as food security and environmental protection.

The United States is expanding its military footprint in the Gulf as the US‑Israel war with Iran enters its second month. Since the Feb. 28 launch of Operation Epic Fury, a joint air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, more than four weeks of strikes have resulted in thousands of casualties.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is currently conducting daily combat sorties from the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald Ford, now under maintenance in Croatia.These carrier groups carry thousands of sailors, Marines and specialised support personnel, forming the core of the US’s power projection in the region.Carrier Strike Group (CSG) refers to an aircraft carrier plus its escort ships and support units that together function as a floating base. A typical CSG includes:An aircraft carrier60‑75 fighter jets and helicopters2‑4 Arleigh Burke‑class destroyersA guided‑missile cruiserA submarine for underwater protectionSupply shipsAs of April 1, the USS Abraham Lincoln remains the only carrier launching daily combat missions against Iranian targets, while the USS George HW Bush is en route and expected to eventually replace the Gerald Ford in the Mediterranean.Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) operates as a mini‑carrier, carrying US Marines and equipment for sea‑to‑land invasions. The USS Tripoli ARG arrived in the Middle East on March 27, and the USS Boxer ARG is expected to join the theater by mid‑April. An ARG typically comprises:Three specialised ships~2,200 Marines (a Marine Expeditionary Unit)Short‑takeoff aircraftLanding craft for beach assaultsThe key distinction: ARGs are built to land troops on shore, whereas CSGs are designed to project air power and conduct major naval warfare.A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a rapid‑response, self‑contained force of 2,200‑2,500 Marine Corps personnel capable of combat and humanitarian missions. On Friday, US Central Command confirmed that 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU arrived in Middle Eastern waters after departing Sasebo, Japan, on March 13. A second unit, the 11th MEU with roughly 2,500 Marines, is inbound after leaving San Diego on March 18.The Pentagon has also ordered about 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to move to the region, adding to the approximately 50,000 US troops already stationed in the Middle East.An MEU is organized into four elements:Command Element – ~200 personnel for planning and command‑and‑control.Ground Combat Element – ~1,200 troops centered on an infantry battalion with artillery and armoured vehicles.Aviation Combat Element – ~500 personnel operating transport helicopters, attack aircraft and Osprey tilt‑rotors.Logistics Combat Element – ~300 personnel providing up to 15 days of self‑sustainment, including medical, engineering and maintenance support.MEUs are typically deployed aboard a three‑ship ARG, which serves as a floating base. The ships include:Landing Helicopter Assault/Dock – a small carrier carrying short‑takeoff aircraft such as F‑35Bs and attack helicopters.Amphibious Transport Dock – a mid‑size vessel transporting troops and heavy vehicles.Dock Landing Ship – primarily for cargo and heavy equipment.MEUs can execute sea‑to‑land assaults, raids, evacuations, humanitarian aid and disaster‑relief operations, and they are often the first forces on the ground in emerging conflicts.The US Marine Corps maintains seven active MEUs; the 31st (Asia‑Pacific) and 11th (West Coast) are currently assigned to the Iran war. The other units are distributed as follows:East Coast: 22nd, 24th, 26th MEUWest Coast: 11th, 13th, 15th MEUAsia‑Pacific: 31st MEUTypically, three MEUs are forward‑positioned at any time, rotating through deployments in the Mediterranean, Gulf and Asia‑Pacific regions.Historically, MEUs have played pivotal roles in US operations: during the 2001 Afghanistan invasion, the 15th and 26th MEUs conducted one of the longest amphibious vertical insertions; in 2003‑2004 they helped secure Iraqi ports and fought in Fallujah; and in 2024 they provided sea‑based support for the attempted abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.