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JD Vance, the US Vice-President, has embarked on a high-stakes mission to Islamabad to negotiate a peace deal with Iran, a task that has been likened to a 'poisoned chalice.' Vance's challenge is to secure a durable peace between a rhetorical ceasefire and the resumption of hostilities.Vance, a vocal critic of US wars in the Middle East, now finds himself at the forefront of efforts to end the conflict. His presence at the talks, the highest-level meeting since the Iranian revolution of 1979, underscores the significance of this diplomatic push. However, Iran's negotiators feel emboldened by their recent successes, including control of the strategic Hormuz strait and their resilience in the face of a massive US-Israeli onslaught.The path to negotiations is fraught with hurdles. Iran has set conditions for talks, including the release of its blocked assets, a demand the US has not publicly agreed to. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker, emphasized that these conditions must be met before negotiations can begin. This stance could complicate Vance's efforts to initiate meaningful dialogue.Vance's mission could have far-reaching implications for his potential presidential run in 2028. His credentials as a MAGA supporter have been questioned due to his less-than-enthusiastic approach to the war in Iran. The outcome of these talks could either bolster or undermine his political standing.Tehran's negotiators are known for their tireless and relentless bargaining style, which could put Vance under significant pressure. The US, while able to walk away from the negotiating table, cannot guarantee the free flow of marine traffic from the Persian Gulf, giving Iran key leverage over the White House. This dynamic could have profound implications for the global economy, particularly in terms of fuel shortages and supply chain disruptions.Before departing for Islamabad, Vance indicated that his team had received clear instructions from Donald Trump regarding the negotiations. He expressed a willingness to engage in good faith with Iran but warned against attempts to 'play' the US. The success of these talks remains uncertain, but their impact on global stability and Vance's political future is undeniable.

The recent ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran has brought a fragile calm to the region, but experts warn that energy prices may take months to normalize. The conflict had a significant impact on global oil and gas supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20% of the world's oil and gas exports pass.Iran's response to US-Israeli attacks included choking off the Strait of Hormuz and attacking energy infrastructure in several Gulf countries. This led to soaring prices for energy and byproducts like helium, as well as fertilizers that rely on these inputs, affecting sowing seasons and consumers worldwide, especially in developing countries.Experts stress that a predictable and stable flow of cargo through the strait is needed before markets can stabilize. Currently, only a trickle of vessels are passing through, with five vessels crossing on Wednesday and seven on Thursday, down from 120-140 ships per day before the conflict.Rockford Weitz, a professor at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, described the situation as 'the biggest disruption in the history of global oil markets.' He emphasized that normalization will take time and requires collaboration among global powers and regional players.Additionally, concerns remain about Iran charging toll fees and skyrocketing insurance fees, which could keep oil prices high. However, experts agree that these fees are not the primary cost drivers.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of a looming inflation crisis and plans to downgrade its forecast for the world economy. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, stated that growth will be slower, even if the new peace is durable.For now, oil prices are expected to remain higher than pre-war levels due to the overhang of greater risk premium of supplies out of the Gulf. The situation remains uncertain, with experts closely watching for any side deals, such as a potential agreement between Iraq and Iran, which could impact oil production and prices.

US Vice President JD Vance has departed for Pakistan to engage in crucial talks with Iran, seeking to bring an end to the ongoing US-Israeli war. Vance expressed optimism about the negotiations, stating that he expects 'positive' results from the discussions.Vance's trip comes at a critical juncture, with the conflict showing no signs of abating. The US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28, which has resulted in significant damage to Iran's nuclear sites. President Donald Trump has given Vance clear guidelines for the meeting, emphasizing the need for a peaceful resolution.The talks in Pakistan will involve Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. However, it remains unclear if any representative from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will attend. The format of the negotiations and whether the US and Iranian officials will speak face-to-face or through intermediaries have not been disclosed.Trust issues remain a significant hurdle in the negotiations. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Majid Takht Ravanchi, expressed wariness about the talks, citing concerns that they could be used as a deception to cover renewed escalation in fighting. Iran seeks an agreement with guarantees that it will not be attacked again.The negotiations in Pakistan are seen as a critical step towards resolving the conflict. Both sides appear to be miles apart, with tremendous amounts of mistrust. However, according to Ali Vaez, the Iran project manager at the International Crisis Group, every option possible has been tried, and both sides have ended up in a lose-lose scenario. Vaez emphasized that it is essential for both sides to be practical and realize that concessions at the negotiating table are necessary to avoid further conflict.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has significantly altered the dynamics of the nuclear programme negotiations. Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have stated that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration's war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran 'balance the asymmetry of power' with the US.Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who helped negotiate the JCPOA, noted that 'this administration, to say it more politely, cannot unsoil the bed. There's no way to get back to the status quo ante before this war started.'In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, which barred Tehran from enriching its uranium to weapons-grade. Trump called the deal 'one of the worst and most one-sided transactions' the US had ever entered into.However, after a strategy of high pressure – first through returning sanctions and then, after Trump's return to power in 2025, a war that was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities – the current US administration has found itself in more complex negotiations than before its campaign of economic and military strikes.Robert Malley, a Yale lecturer who was former special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden and a lead negotiator on the JCPOA, said: 'The strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few, because the US has handed Iran a tool that it always had, but it never thought of using, or never felt it could.'The chances for a comprehensive agreement addressing all of the US and Iran's grievances appear slim. While the Obama administration sought to negotiate exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme in the lead-up to the 2015 agreement, the Trump administration has sought a broader deal limiting Iran's ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, announced on Friday that the country will release additional oil reserves early next month, equivalent to roughly 20 days' worth of oil, to ensure a stable supply of crude oil. This move comes as concern grows over energy shortages caused by the crisis in the Middle East.This will be the second time Japan has dipped into its strategic reserves since the US-Israel war on Iran started in February. Last month, Takaichi approved the release of 50 days' worth of oil, the government's biggest ever release, in an attempt to head off a spike in prices.Japan has enough oil in reserve to last 230 days, but it also imports 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, most of which is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The country is trying to secure oil from locations that do not ship via the Strait of Hormuz, amid uncertainty over whether the waterway will fully reopen after a two-week conditional ceasefire announced by Donald Trump this week.By May, Japan should be able to secure more than half of its oil imports via other routes, Takaichi said, although she did not provide details. The industry ministry has said that potential new sources for imports could include Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and the Port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.The decision to tap into oil reserves for a second time came as pressure grew on Japan's government to resist US pressure to become militarily involved in the conflict. More than 100 demonstrations were held across the country on Wednesday, with protesters urging Takaichi to abide by the postwar constitution, which forbids Japan from using the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.

Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has declared a 'final victory' in the war against Israel and the United States, despite a fragile ceasefire being threatened by Israel's continued offensive on Lebanon.Marking 40 days since his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli attack, Khamenei stated that Iran had 'astonished the world' during the course of the war. He emphasized that Tehran is not seeking war but is fighting for its legitimate rights.Khamenei warned that Iran will not leave 'criminal aggressors' unpunished and will demand compensation for damages and the blood of martyrs and the wounded. He also mentioned that Iran will move towards a 'new phase' regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blockaded since the war began.The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, allowing for negotiations to take place. However, Israeli air strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday killed over 300 people, threatening the truce amid disagreements on whether Beirut was part of the agreement.Khamenei stated that Iran is ready to respond if attacks resume, saying 'our hands are on the trigger'. Despite this, he emphasized that Iran will not renounce its legitimate rights under any circumstances, considering the entire resistance front as a whole.Delegations from Iran and the US are expected in Pakistan on Saturday to hold talks on ending the war.

Thousands of Iranians have gathered nationwide to honour the memory of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who governed the nation for nearly 40 years until his death in recent US-Israeli strikes that sparked the latest Middle East conflict.The national tribute commenced at 9:40am (06:10 GMT), the exact time Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 at his Tehran residence, along with several other senior Iranian officials.State television broadcast footage showing thousands participating in memorial rallies across Iran on Thursday, with many carrying portraits of the late leader in cities including Urmia in the northwest, Gorgan in the northeast, and the capital Tehran.His successor, son Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained out of public view since before the war began, and was not expected to attend the nationwide commemorative events held Thursday.The attack initiated the Middle East conflict that has since engulfed the region, with Iran responding by targeting US assets and allies across the Gulf and launching strikes against Israel.Due to the ongoing war, a formal state funeral for the late supreme leader has yet to be held.

Israeli settlers have made a record number of attempts to smuggle animal sacrifices into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during the Jewish Passover festival. A total of seven incidents were documented, the highest number since the Israeli occupation began in 1967.The attempts took place while the 144-dunum (36-acre) compound, along with the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, was sealed off for 40 consecutive days due to security concerns linked to the US-Israel war on Iran. Despite the restrictions, settlers successfully reached the borders of the Old City with their sacrifices on at least two occasions before being stopped.Experts argue that the incidents are part of a long-term strategy by far-right 'Temple Mount groups' to encroach on Al-Aqsa, with the aim of taking it over. The groups view the sacrificial rituals as highly symbolic, signifying a transition from waiting to actual field action.The Palestinian Authority has warned that the push for animal sacrifices represents the 'peak of weaponising religious rituals as a colonial tool' to Judaise the mosque. Suhail Khalilieh, a political analyst and expert on Jerusalem affairs, described the Israeli police's detention of settlers as a 'theatrical play' designed to absorb local and international anger while allowing gradual changes on the ground.The use of artificial intelligence-generated images has also been employed by settler groups to rally support and normalise the practice of animal sacrifices within Israeli society. Khalilieh warned that this poses a 'real strategic threat', as it shifts the idea from being a limited, fringe concept to a full popular demand.

The Gulf region breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week truce, halting over five weeks of escalating attacks and hostile rhetoric.However, Gulf states are expressing caution, concerned that the US, seeking a swift exit, might agree to terms granting Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one fifth of the world's oil and natural liquefied gas passes.Iran had nearly brought traffic through the strait to a standstill in response to joint US-Israeli attacks on its soil since February 28. Under the truce, Iran has agreed to halt attacks for two weeks in exchange for resumed maritime transit in the key waterway.Despite this, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are stressing that any deal must result in a permanent, long-term arrangement to keep the strait open. They fear a weakened yet intact Iranian leadership could use the strait as leverage, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail.“There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, could tolerate some Iranian leverage over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritising optics over Gulf realities,” said Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.The GCC countries, which have faced near-daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, have welcomed the truce but emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen. They are also concerned about Iran's future influence over the strait, with a Bahrain-sponsored UN Security Council resolution calling for countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open being vetoed by Russia and China.A further escalation could have devastating consequences for the GCC economies, undoing decades of work to make the region a safe hub for finance, tourism, and culture. Analysts say GCC countries have stepped up diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict, but officials across the region have warned Iran should not mistake their inaction as a sign of weakness.“The Gulf will leave no stone unturned if Iran continues to take the path of aggression,” said Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University. “The Gulf expects its interests to be represented, and included, in any deal with Iran.”