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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

UK braces for deepening recession as Trump‑Iran war triggers worst energy shock since the 1970s

Larry Elliott argues that the United Kingdom is confronting its most severe energy shock since the …
Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.
#war #but #global
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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

AI and Influencers Propel Global Secondhand Clothing Market Toward $289 bn Forecast

The global resale clothing market is set to grow 12% this year to $289 bn, driven by AI‑enhanced pl…
Forecasts indicate that the worldwide secondhand apparel sector will expand by 12% in 2024, reaching $289 bn (£217 bn), buoyed by artificial intelligence tools and social‑media influencers that help consumers locate desired items.Platforms such as Vinted, Depop, Vestige and ThredUp are expected to sustain an average 9% annual growth over the next five years, pushing the market to an estimated $393 bn—roughly double the growth rate of the broader clothing industry.The outlook stems from ThredUp’s latest resale report, which incorporates analysis from GlobalData. In 2021 the market was valued at just $141 bn, meaning the projected 2024 figure is more than double that baseline.Major brands—including Dr Martens, Zara and Mulberry—are now entering the resale space, either by offering pre‑owned pieces or refurbishing items to satisfy rising consumer demand."Resale is no longer merely expanding; it’s capturing direct market share," said James Reinhart, co‑founder and CEO of ThredUp. The report notes that resale now accounts for one‑tenth of global clothing sales, and that the U.S. secondhand market grew nearly four times faster than the overall market by 2025.ThredUp’s own revenue climbed 20% to $310.8 m last year. Depop reported a 42% increase to £101 m, while Vinted posted a 36% rise to €813.4 m (£710 m) in 2024. However, profitability remains elusive: ThredUp posted a $20 m pre‑tax loss, Depop a £42 m loss, and only Vinted turned a profit, earning €76.7 m. Depop was recently acquired by eBay from Etsy.Reinhart warned that rising inflation—spurred by geopolitical tensions that lift energy and fuel costs for manufacturers—could push more shoppers toward affordable secondhand options."The industry stays robust, driven by young consumers' behaviour," he added.Artificial intelligence is streamlining the massive inventories of resale platforms, enabling rapid cataloguing and matching of items to buyer preferences. "Netflix and Spotify spent decades building data and algorithms to recommend content; AI can achieve similar personalization for fashion almost instantly," Reinhart explained, noting that this reduces friction between spotting an item on social media and completing a purchase.Looking ahead, the market’s next phase will be defined by firms that can unlock supply and leverage AI to connect inventory with the next generation of shoppers, according to Reinhart.Analyst Neil Saunders of GlobalData highlighted that consumers aged 14‑45 (Gen Z and millennials) are projected to generate 70% of market growth. He emphasized that discovery tools must migrate to the social feeds where these shoppers spend their time, and that technology will be essential to simplify selling and maintain sufficient stock for expanding demand.
#thredup #vinted #depop
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Economy Apr 02, 2026

Oil Prices Soar and Markets Tumble as Trump Warns of 'Hard' Action Against Iran

Oil prices surged and global stock markets plummeted after Donald Trump's warning of 'extremely har…
Global markets were jolted on Thursday as oil prices skyrocketed and stocks sank following a televised address by Donald Trump, in which he vowed to take 'extremely hard' action against Iran in the coming weeks. This development has dashed investor hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.Brent crude prices jumped by 8% to surpass $109 a barrel, reversing the previous day's decline when hopes of de-escalation had briefly pushed the international benchmark below $100 a barrel.Asian markets were particularly hard hit, with Japan's Nikkei index falling 2.4%, China's CSI 300 index dropping 1.36%, and South Korea's Kospi tumbling 4.8%. In Europe, Germany's Dax fell 2%, France's Cac 40 dropped 1.15%, and Italy's FTSE Mib was down 1.45%. The FTSE 100 in London initially opened 0.7% lower but later stabilized, buoyed by gains in fossil fuel companies BP and Shell, which rose 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.Government borrowing costs also increased, with the yield on 10-year UK gilts rising four basis points to 4.886% and the two-year UK bond yield rising six basis points to 4.36%, reflecting growing fears of inflation due to higher energy costs.Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, noted that investors are betting on the impact of delayed oil supply deliveries from the Gulf, given Trump's failure to provide guidance on a potential end to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. 'Instead of 'no more war', we got 'no, more war!', Beauchamp said, highlighting the market's concerns about hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that may not be delivered soon.The US dollar gained 0.6% against a basket of major currencies as investors sought safe-haven assets, pushing the pound down by almost a cent to $1.321. The market turmoil is already affecting consumers, with the Bank of England warning that 1.3 million more homeowners may see their mortgage payments rise due to financial shocks from the Iran conflict.Additionally, data from the RAC showed that petrol and diesel prices jumped by a record amount in March, with the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol rising by 20p to 152.83p by the end of the month, surpassing the previous monthly record.
#Donald Trump #Iran #Crude Oil
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World Apr 02, 2026

EU’s tepid response to Israel‑Lebanon conflict sparks calls for sanctions and trade suspension

Irish MEP Barry Andrews’ visit to Beirut exposed a worsening humanitarian crisis in southern Lebano…
Irish MEP Barry Andrews toured makeshift shelters in Beirut last month, where displaced families are living on dirty mattresses and blankets and suffering from infections. The conditions, he said, are worse than during Israel’s 2024 incursion, underscoring the human cost of Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.On returning to Dublin, Andrews became one of the first European lawmakers to urge the European Union to revive sanctions against Israel. He argued that the EU must also address state‑backed settler violence in the West Bank, attacks on health workers in Gaza, and Israel’s recent move to reinstate the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism.The EU’s leverage lies in its association agreement with Israel, a commerce and cooperation accord that underpins a €68 billion (€59 bn) trading relationship and includes cooperation on energy and scientific research. Former EU representative to the Palestinian territories, Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff, says the bloc should suspend this agreement, halt all military aid, and cease trade with illegal settlements, warning that inaction will further damage the EU’s reputation.Andrews described the EU’s reaction to the Iran‑Israel‑Lebanon war as “weak and pathetic,” adding that it effectively gives Israel a “permission slip for endless war crimes.” The European Commission condemned the Knesset’s death‑penalty vote as “very concerning” and a “clear step backwards,” while the Council of Europe called it a “legal anachronism” incompatible with modern human‑rights standards.Human‑rights figures note that in the past four weeks more than 1,240 people have been killed in Lebanon—including at least 124 children—and over 1.1 million have been displaced. In Gaza, the death toll has risen by 673 since the October ceasefire, bringing the total to 72,260 deaths.EU leaders have been divided on how to respond. Former Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed unprecedented sanctions last September, citing a “man‑made famine” in Gaza, but the proposal failed to secure a majority in the Council of Ministers, losing momentum after the U.S. announced a cease‑fire plan.Member states also differ: Ireland, Spain and Slovenia champion the Palestinian cause, whereas Germany, Austria and Hungary—led by Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—have resisted measures such as sanctions on West Bank settlers.Despite these divisions, a senior EU diplomat warned in mid‑March that the bloc may need to “increase pressure on Israel again,” citing the “highly problematic” situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Another diplomat highlighted the importance of engaging with Israeli civil society, noting an open letter from 600 Israeli security officials urging an end to the Gaza war.In a recent statement, a Commission spokesperson reiterated that diplomatic engagement with Israel continues, describing it as the standard approach when partners “do not see developments eye to eye.” Yet former EU envoy Kühn von Burgsdorff cautioned that the EU cannot appear as a “sidekick” to an “erratic, unreliable” U.S. president or a “warmongering, annexationist” Israeli prime minister, as such a stance would undermine Europe’s global standing.
#israel #lebanon #hezbollah
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Health Apr 02, 2026

US Health Aid Deals Spark Concerns of Exploitation in African Nations

The US has proposed bilateral health agreements to developing countries, mostly in Africa, in excha…
The United States has been proposing unusual bilateral health agreements to developing countries, mostly in Africa, in exchange for access to sensitive health data and critical minerals. These deals have sparked concerns of exploitation and have been met with resistance from several countries.In November, the US approached Zimbabwean authorities with a proposal that would have provided over $300m in funding in return for sensitive health data. However, Harare felt that the negotiations were 'lopsided' and promptly pulled out.Zambia also pushed back against a similar proposal, citing 'problematic' clauses that sought access to the country's minerals, including copper, cobalt, and lithium. The US had offered $1bn in funding over five years, but Lusaka requested a review of the proposal.Several African countries, including Nigeria and Kenya, have signed the health pacts, but the terms agreed remain unclear.Data or mineral demands in return for health aid are unprecedented in the history of US-Africa relations. Policy experts argue that tying crucial funding to sensitive national assets could have negative consequences for African nations and the US itself.'Supporting global health has clear benefits to the United States in terms of prevention of pandemics that can affect Americans too,' said Sarang Shidore, Africa director at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. 'Linking such aid to payoffs in the extraction of critical minerals smacks of exploitative practices.'African nations have long relied on US funding to foot many of their health bills. In 2024, African countries received $5.4bn in US assistance, largely spent on humanitarian, health, and disaster needs.However, the US has argued that aid cuts suit its America First agenda, which prioritizes national interests. The stance has been met with criticism, with some economists arguing that aid is often ineffective and causes overreliance.Washington is now focused on government-to-government deals, which have typically required governments to take on an increasing share of their own health budgets in the next four to five years.Some analysts see this as a positive move to reduce overdependence on foreign funding and force governments to prioritize health spending in their budgets. However, the clauses that Washington is demanding to leverage its aid for data, rare earth elements, and other minerals have caused widespread outrage in some countries.In the case of Zambia, the US reportedly asked for access to the country's critical minerals in return for $1bn over five years. The US also asked for a one-way data-sharing agreement for 10 years.If Lusaka fails to ink a deal, US aid funding to the country will be discontinued, which could mean losing the remnants of funding Zambia still receives from the PEPFAR programme.
#United States #Nigeria #Cobalt
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News Apr 02, 2026

Russia Claims Full Control of Ukraine's Luhansk Region

Russia's Ministry of Defence announced that its forces have taken full control of Ukraine's Luhansk…
Russia's Ministry of Defence has declared that its forces have gained complete control over the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine. This development comes as Moscow continues its efforts to expand its territorial control in the region. The ministry stated that units of the 'West' military grouping have completed the 'liberation' of the Luhansk People's Republic, a term used by Moscow to refer to the Ukrainian region. However, there was no immediate confirmation of this claim from Ukrainian authorities. Luhansk, along with Donetsk, forms the broader Donbas area. More than 99 percent of Luhansk has been under Russian control since the beginning of the 2022 invasion. The region was one of four Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia in 2022. Additionally, Russia controls approximately three-quarters of Donetsk. The Kremlin reiterated its demand for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the entirety of Donetsk, which Kyiv has consistently rejected. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to withdraw his forces from the Donbas area, suggesting that this would bring an end to what Russia refers to as the 'hot phase' of the war. In related developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia used 339 drones in overnight attacks on Ukraine. These attacks resulted in the deaths of two women in a civilian car in the Kherson region. Zelenskyy also mentioned that he would be holding a video call with US envoys to discuss stalled negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have been reported to have crossed into the airspace of several countries, including Estonia, Finland, and Latvia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha clarified that Ukraine never aimed drones at these countries.
#russia #ukraine #luhansk
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News Apr 02, 2026

US Deploys Third Aircraft Carrier and Multiple Marine Expeditionary Units to Gulf as Iran Conflict Escalates – A Guide to Carrier Strike Groups and MEUs

Amid the second month of the US‑Israel war with Iran, the United States has added a third aircraft …
The United States is expanding its military footprint in the Gulf as the US‑Israel war with Iran enters its second month. Since the Feb. 28 launch of Operation Epic Fury, a joint air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, more than four weeks of strikes have resulted in thousands of casualties.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is currently conducting daily combat sorties from the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald Ford, now under maintenance in Croatia.These carrier groups carry thousands of sailors, Marines and specialised support personnel, forming the core of the US’s power projection in the region.Carrier Strike Group (CSG) refers to an aircraft carrier plus its escort ships and support units that together function as a floating base. A typical CSG includes:An aircraft carrier60‑75 fighter jets and helicopters2‑4 Arleigh Burke‑class destroyersA guided‑missile cruiserA submarine for underwater protectionSupply shipsAs of April 1, the USS Abraham Lincoln remains the only carrier launching daily combat missions against Iranian targets, while the USS George HW Bush is en route and expected to eventually replace the Gerald Ford in the Mediterranean.Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) operates as a mini‑carrier, carrying US Marines and equipment for sea‑to‑land invasions. The USS Tripoli ARG arrived in the Middle East on March 27, and the USS Boxer ARG is expected to join the theater by mid‑April. An ARG typically comprises:Three specialised ships~2,200 Marines (a Marine Expeditionary Unit)Short‑takeoff aircraftLanding craft for beach assaultsThe key distinction: ARGs are built to land troops on shore, whereas CSGs are designed to project air power and conduct major naval warfare.A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a rapid‑response, self‑contained force of 2,200‑2,500 Marine Corps personnel capable of combat and humanitarian missions. On Friday, US Central Command confirmed that 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU arrived in Middle Eastern waters after departing Sasebo, Japan, on March 13. A second unit, the 11th MEU with roughly 2,500 Marines, is inbound after leaving San Diego on March 18.The Pentagon has also ordered about 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to move to the region, adding to the approximately 50,000 US troops already stationed in the Middle East.An MEU is organized into four elements:Command Element – ~200 personnel for planning and command‑and‑control.Ground Combat Element – ~1,200 troops centered on an infantry battalion with artillery and armoured vehicles.Aviation Combat Element – ~500 personnel operating transport helicopters, attack aircraft and Osprey tilt‑rotors.Logistics Combat Element – ~300 personnel providing up to 15 days of self‑sustainment, including medical, engineering and maintenance support.MEUs are typically deployed aboard a three‑ship ARG, which serves as a floating base. The ships include:Landing Helicopter Assault/Dock – a small carrier carrying short‑takeoff aircraft such as F‑35Bs and attack helicopters.Amphibious Transport Dock – a mid‑size vessel transporting troops and heavy vehicles.Dock Landing Ship – primarily for cargo and heavy equipment.MEUs can execute sea‑to‑land assaults, raids, evacuations, humanitarian aid and disaster‑relief operations, and they are often the first forces on the ground in emerging conflicts.The US Marine Corps maintains seven active MEUs; the 31st (Asia‑Pacific) and 11th (West Coast) are currently assigned to the Iran war. The other units are distributed as follows:East Coast: 22nd, 24th, 26th MEUWest Coast: 11th, 13th, 15th MEUAsia‑Pacific: 31st MEUTypically, three MEUs are forward‑positioned at any time, rotating through deployments in the Mediterranean, Gulf and Asia‑Pacific regions.Historically, MEUs have played pivotal roles in US operations: during the 2001 Afghanistan invasion, the 15th and 26th MEUs conducted one of the longest amphibious vertical insertions; in 2003‑2004 they helped secure Iraqi ports and fought in Fallujah; and in 2024 they provided sea‑based support for the attempted abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
#meu #carrier #marine
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Technology Apr 01, 2026

NASA’s Artemis II Set for Wednesday Launch: Crew, Timeline and Mission Significance

NASA is ready to launch Artemis II from Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday, sending four astronauts …
The countdown at Kennedy Space Center is in its final stages for the Artemis II launch, the first crewed lunar mission since 1972. NASA Associate Administrator Amit Kshatriya confirmed after a Monday management meeting that the mission is cleared for a Wednesday liftoff. Launch window: A two‑hour window opens at 6:24 pm (22:24 GMT) on Wednesday, with daily two‑hour windows remaining available until April 6. The launch can proceed only when the moon’s position, orbital trajectories, weather, and Earth’s rotation align safely. Weather outlook: Forecasts show an 80 % chance of favorable conditions, though cloud cover and high winds remain the primary concerns. The mission has already endured two major setbacks. In early February a liquid‑hydrogen leak forced a scrub, and in early March a helium‑flow issue in the upper stage halted a second attempt. NASA will stream the launch live on YouTube, where viewers can follow the vehicle from rollout to liftoff. Artemis programme overview: Artemis is NASA’s multidecade effort to return humans to the Moon, establish a sustainable presence near the lunar south pole, and eventually enable crewed missions to Mars. The program comprises five missions (Artemis I‑V). Artemis I, an uncrewed test in 2022, validated the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft, providing critical data for the current flight. Mission profile: Artemis II will not land; instead, its four‑person crew will perform a lunar flyby, looping around the far side before returning to Earth. The flight will test Orion’s life‑support, navigation, communications, and overall performance in deep space—conditions that cannot be fully replicated on the ground. Crew members: Reid Wiseman (Commander, 50) – veteran NASA astronaut and former ISS commander. Victor Glover (Pilot, 49) – U.S. Navy aviator, first Black astronaut assigned to a lunar mission, previously flew on SpaceX Crew‑1. Christina Koch (Mission Specialist, 47) – holds the record for the longest single spaceflight by a woman (328 days) and has extensive EVA experience. Jeremy Hansen (Mission Specialist, 50) – Canada’s first astronaut slated for a lunar mission, highlighting international collaboration. During the ten‑day journey the crew will evaluate spacecraft systems, conduct radiation and fire‑response drills, perform a suit‑pressurisation test, and carry out medical and scientific experiments while observing the lunar surface. Strategic importance: Artemis II is a stepping stone toward Artemis III (planned for 2027), which will test integrated operations with commercial landers, followed by Artemis IV (early 2028) – the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 – and Artemis V (late 2028) aimed at establishing a lunar base. The program also reinforces U.S. leadership in space amid rising competition, notably from China.
#artemis #mission #moon
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Environment Apr 01, 2026

US Exempts Gulf of Mexico Oil Drillers from Endangered Species Protections

The US government has exempted oil and gas drillers in the Gulf of Mexico from protections under th…
The US government's Endangered Species Committee has voted unanimously to exempt oil and gas drillers in the Gulf of Mexico from protections under the Endangered Species Act. This decision, made during a rare meeting, has significant implications for vulnerable species in the region.The committee, composed of six senior Trump officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, argued that environmental rules could hinder US energy production, particularly during the ongoing tensions with Iran. Hegseth stated that disruptions to Gulf oil production would not only affect the US but also benefit its adversaries.The exemption is only the fourth time in US history that the Endangered Species Committee has convened, and the third time it has granted an exemption to the Endangered Species Act. Rice's whale, with only about 50 remaining, is one of the species protected by the act in the Gulf of Mexico. Other species, such as birds, sea turtles, and Gulf sturgeon, are also safeguarded.Environmental groups have strongly objected to the decision, labeling the committee a 'god squad' due to its power over species' existence. They plan to challenge the exemptions, arguing that the Trump administration failed to follow the protocols set out under the Endangered Species Act and that the rationale for the exemption is not justified by facts.This move is part of the Trump administration's broader effort to roll back environmental protections and promote pro-fossil fuel policies, despite dismissing climate change as a 'hoax'. Critics warn that this action could lead to the extinction of species, with one expert stating that Trump could be the first person in history to knowingly extirpate a species from the face of the earth.
#Gulf of Mexico #Endangered Species Act #U.S. Department of the Interior
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