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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

UK braces for deepening recession as Trump‑Iran war triggers worst energy shock since the 1970s

Larry Elliott argues that the United Kingdom is confronting its most severe energy shock since the …
Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.
#war #but #global
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Commentisfree Apr 02, 2026

Israel's New Death Penalty Law: A Further Descent into Dehumanization of Palestinians

Israel has passed a law allowing the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks, fur…
Israel has recently enacted a law that institutionalizes the execution of Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks. This move is seen as a new phase in Israel's dehumanization of Palestinians, expanding a legal system designed to target and oppress them.The law does not create a new reality but rather enshrines a longstanding policy of using lethal force against Palestinians into law. This reality is already normalized in Israel, where Palestinians have been systematically killed in Gaza and the West Bank, often with near-total impunity.In the months since October 2023, Israel has increased the number of Palestinians in detention to over 10,000, many without trial, and subjected them to conditions that amount to torture. More than 80 Palestinians have died in Israeli custody amid documented abuse and inhumane conditions.This law emerges under a political leadership that openly embraces violence and dehumanization, led by senior government ministers who have built their power on incitement and the normalization of harm against Palestinians. The legislation faces virtually no political opposition and hardly provokes public debate in Israel.Globally, democratic states have been moving away from the death penalty, recognizing it as a violation of fundamental human rights. However, Israel is not an exception but a central driver of the erosion of international law, maintaining systems of lethal violence and oppression against Palestinians.A state that institutionalizes the execution of one population under its control while subjecting them to systemic violence and discrimination is not democratic; it is a system of lethal control. What is happening to Palestinians is already reshaping political and moral boundaries beyond Palestine, including in the US.
#palestinians #israel #law
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World Economy Apr 02, 2026

Global Super-Rich May Have Hidden $3.55 Trillion in Offshore Accounts, Oxfam Reveals

Oxfam estimates that the global super-rich may have hidden $3.55 trillion in offshore accounts, eva…
The global super-rich may have as much as $3.55 trillion hidden away from tax authorities, according to estimates by Oxfam. This staggering amount is more than 3% of global GDP and is likely to be owned by the richest 0.1% of households.Oxfam's latest analysis reveals that total wealth held offshore has increased significantly to $13.25 trillion in 2023. While the share of secretive holdings hidden from tax authorities has fallen since the introduction of a new system of automatic information exchange between jurisdictions in 2016, Oxfam estimates that a substantial amount remains shielded from tax.The charity's lead on tax, Christian Hallum, emphasized that this isn't just about clever accounting, but about power and impunity. When millionaires and billionaires stash trillions of dollars in offshore tax havens, they place themselves above the obligations that bind the rest of society.Oxfam is part of a global campaign to mobilize calls for a global progressive wealth tax, including through negotiations at the UN on a framework for tax cooperation. The charity is also calling for countries in the global south to be included in the Common Reporting Standard – the system that allows for information exchange between jurisdictions.In the UK, Oxfam is urging Labour to implement a wealth tax, with the Green leader in England and Wales, Zack Polanski, suggesting a tax levied annually at a rate of 1% on assets worth more than £10m, and 2% above £100m. The Green party claims this policy would raise about £15 billion a year.
#tax #wealth #global
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World Apr 02, 2026

EU’s tepid response to Israel‑Lebanon conflict sparks calls for sanctions and trade suspension

Irish MEP Barry Andrews’ visit to Beirut exposed a worsening humanitarian crisis in southern Lebano…
Irish MEP Barry Andrews toured makeshift shelters in Beirut last month, where displaced families are living on dirty mattresses and blankets and suffering from infections. The conditions, he said, are worse than during Israel’s 2024 incursion, underscoring the human cost of Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.On returning to Dublin, Andrews became one of the first European lawmakers to urge the European Union to revive sanctions against Israel. He argued that the EU must also address state‑backed settler violence in the West Bank, attacks on health workers in Gaza, and Israel’s recent move to reinstate the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism.The EU’s leverage lies in its association agreement with Israel, a commerce and cooperation accord that underpins a €68 billion (€59 bn) trading relationship and includes cooperation on energy and scientific research. Former EU representative to the Palestinian territories, Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff, says the bloc should suspend this agreement, halt all military aid, and cease trade with illegal settlements, warning that inaction will further damage the EU’s reputation.Andrews described the EU’s reaction to the Iran‑Israel‑Lebanon war as “weak and pathetic,” adding that it effectively gives Israel a “permission slip for endless war crimes.” The European Commission condemned the Knesset’s death‑penalty vote as “very concerning” and a “clear step backwards,” while the Council of Europe called it a “legal anachronism” incompatible with modern human‑rights standards.Human‑rights figures note that in the past four weeks more than 1,240 people have been killed in Lebanon—including at least 124 children—and over 1.1 million have been displaced. In Gaza, the death toll has risen by 673 since the October ceasefire, bringing the total to 72,260 deaths.EU leaders have been divided on how to respond. Former Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed unprecedented sanctions last September, citing a “man‑made famine” in Gaza, but the proposal failed to secure a majority in the Council of Ministers, losing momentum after the U.S. announced a cease‑fire plan.Member states also differ: Ireland, Spain and Slovenia champion the Palestinian cause, whereas Germany, Austria and Hungary—led by Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—have resisted measures such as sanctions on West Bank settlers.Despite these divisions, a senior EU diplomat warned in mid‑March that the bloc may need to “increase pressure on Israel again,” citing the “highly problematic” situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Another diplomat highlighted the importance of engaging with Israeli civil society, noting an open letter from 600 Israeli security officials urging an end to the Gaza war.In a recent statement, a Commission spokesperson reiterated that diplomatic engagement with Israel continues, describing it as the standard approach when partners “do not see developments eye to eye.” Yet former EU envoy Kühn von Burgsdorff cautioned that the EU cannot appear as a “sidekick” to an “erratic, unreliable” U.S. president or a “warmongering, annexationist” Israeli prime minister, as such a stance would undermine Europe’s global standing.
#israel #lebanon #hezbollah
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Politics Apr 02, 2026

Iran's Pezeshkian Urges US Public to Question War Interests

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has written an open letter to the US public, questioning whose …
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged the American people to look beyond the distortions and narratives surrounding the US-Israeli war on Iran and ask a critical question: whose interests are being served by this conflict?In an open letter addressed to the US public, Pezeshkian questioned whether President Donald Trump's 'America First' policy is truly a priority for the US government. He emphasized that the massacre of innocent children, destruction of cancer-treatment facilities, and boasting about bombing a country 'back to the stone ages' only serve to damage the United States' global standing.Pezeshkian also rejected portrayals of Tehran as a threat, noting that Iran had been attacked twice while its negotiators were engaged in nuclear talks – once by Israel in June 2025, with the US briefly joining in, and again at the end of February this year.The Iranian president stressed that attacking Iran's vital infrastructure, including energy and industrial facilities, directly targets the Iranian people and constitutes a war crime. Such actions, he argued, generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension.Pezeshkian's letter comes amid escalating tensions, with Trump threatening to 'blast Iran into oblivion' unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The US president also claimed that Iran's 'new regime president' had requested a ceasefire – a claim denied by Iranian officials.The Iranian leader also questioned whether the Trump administration was manipulated by Israel in launching the war against Iran. He asked whether America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime.
#Masoud Pezeshkian #United States #Israel
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Politics Apr 02, 2026

Ecuador Sees 28% Drop in Homicides Amid US-Backed Anti-Crime Campaign

Ecuador's government claims a 28% decrease in homicides in March compared to the same period last y…
Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa has announced a significant decrease in homicides, with a 28% drop in March compared to the same period last year. This development comes as the country intensifies its fight against organized crime, with support from the United States.The government's anti-crime efforts have resulted in 4,300 arrests nationwide and the execution of 2,200 search warrants. Interior Minister John Reimberg attributed these successes to Noboa's leadership and the work of the Security Bloc, a task force composed of national police and military members.Reimberg expressed his commitment to continuing the effort, stating that the Security Bloc's deployment has yielded clear and measurable results. Defence Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the crackdown is just the beginning.However, concerns have been raised about potential human rights abuses amid the aggressive campaign against cartels. The US has provided intelligence and logistics to support Ecuador's military operation, which has been carried out on the ground by Ecuadorian forces.Noboa has compared Ecuador's struggles with criminal violence to a war, justifying a military-style response. The country's homicide rate has surged since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Noboa has largely embraced the 'mano dura' or 'iron fist' security policies of other regional leaders.Despite the reported successes, allegations have emerged of civilian safety being threatened. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro alleged that bombs had landed near civilian farms along the Ecuador-Colombia border, and unidentified bodies have been recovered.The allegations have prompted domestic scrutiny of Noboa's campaign, with some questioning whether the attacks are really accomplishing his objectives. Lawmaker Jahiren Noriega Donoso stated that the war launched by Noboa is not a war against crime, but against the poorest among us.
#Ecuador #United States #anti-crime campaign
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News Apr 02, 2026

UK Courts Convict Prominent Pro‑Palestine Organisers for Breaching Protest Conditions, Sparking Civil‑Society Outcry

Two senior figures in Britain’s pro‑Palestine movement were found guilty of violating police‑impose…
Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, and Chris Nineham, vice‑chair of the Stop the War Coalition, were each convicted on Wednesday for breaching conditions set by the Metropolitan Police during a large‑scale pro‑Palestine rally on 18 January 2025. The court found they failed to keep the march within a police‑designated zone in central London and, in Jamal’s case, actively encouraged other demonstrators to do the same. The trial, held at Westminster Magistrates’ Court, concluded that both men were fully aware of the restrictions, given their leadership roles in planning the event. The judges noted that Jamal’s remarks amounted to “incitement” because they urged participants to disregard the stipulated boundaries, including the area surrounding the BBC headquarters on Portland Place. Supporters packed the public gallery, with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn among those present as the verdict was read, according to the PA news agency. In response, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign described the ruling as a “disgraceful decision” and asserted that “the fight is not over.” The statement, posted on X, warned that the judgment undermines the fundamental right to protest. Human Rights Watch UK director Yasmine Ahmed condemned the outcome, calling it a “black mark on British democracy” and suggesting the verdict is part of a broader governmental effort to silence dissent against Israel’s actions in Gaza. The conviction arrives amid mounting tension between law‑enforcement agencies and the UK’s sizable Palestine solidarity movement. Since the conflict in Gaza escalated in October 2023, tens of thousands of Britons have taken to the streets, and thousands of peaceful demonstrators have been arrested for displaying slogans such as “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action.” Human Rights Watch’s research highlights a “disproportionate targeting” of pro‑Palestine activists, arguing that the current anti‑protest legislation threatens the ability to protest without fear of harassment. Activists are already gearing up for another large gathering scheduled for 11 April, when supporters of the direct‑action group Palestine Action plan to demonstrate again in London, despite recent arrests and ongoing legal pressure. Overall, the verdict underscores a growing debate over the balance between public order and civil liberties in the United Kingdom, with implications for future demonstrations linked to the Gaza war and broader international human‑rights concerns.
#palestine #pro-palestine #protest
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News Apr 02, 2026

Israel Enacts Ethnicity‑Based Death Penalty Law, Prompting Fresh Apartheid Accusations

Israel’s new legislation authorising the death penalty exclusively for Palestinians tried in West B…
Israel’s parliament has approved a law that authorises the death penalty solely for Palestinians convicted in West Bank military courts for what the courts define as "terrorism" killings of Israelis. The measure was greeted with celebration by far‑right politicians, yet it has drawn swift rebuke from the United Nations human‑rights chief, who warned it could constitute a war crime, and from a broad coalition of international observers.Israeli rights organisations argue that the law is the latest manifestation of an apartheid‑style legal framework that systematically privileges Jewish citizens while imposing severe penalties on Palestinians. They contend that such legislation entrenches a system of codified discrimination that has evolved since the state’s founding.Under the new rule, military tribunals in the occupied West Bank – which exclusively try Palestinians – will, by default, impose the death sentence on anyone found guilty of an unlawful killing of Israelis classified as terrorism. In contrast, Israeli citizens charged with comparable offences in the same territory are tried in civilian courts, where the death penalty is not applied.Statistics underscore the disparity: conviction rates for Palestinians in military courts hover at an astonishing 99.74%, whereas Israelis tried for crimes committed in the West Bank have a conviction rate of roughly 3% between 2005 and 2024. These figures highlight the stark imbalance in judicial outcomes.Arab‑Israeli lawmaker Aida Touma‑Suleiman of the Hadash party expressed her dismay, leaving the parliamentary chamber after the vote and stating she anticipated “scenes of happiness” from far‑right figures but was “painful” to see the public echo the same sentiment.The law follows a series of statutes that critics say have progressively eroded Palestinian rights, including the 1950 Absentees’ Property Law, the 2003 Citizenship and Entry into Israel Law, and the 2018 Nation‑State Law, which enshrines Jewish supremacy in identity, settlement policy, and constitutional hierarchy while marginalising Arabic.Human‑rights advocate Yair Dvir of B’Tselem described Israel as an “apartheid regime,” noting that a “whole set of laws” differentiate between Jews and Palestinians and that the death‑penalty legislation is less an outlier than a logical extension of existing policies that deny Palestinians the right to life.Analysts argue that the dehumanisation of Palestinians has deepened to the point where capital punishment can be enacted with minimal dissent and even public celebration by parliamentarians.Physician‑rights activist Tirza Leibowitz of Physicians for Human Rights – Israel warned that the law exemplifies a broader pattern of violations, ranging from inhumane prison conditions to a legal system that often refuses to investigate crimes against Palestinians or actively shields abusive practices.She cited the unresolved deaths of more than 100 Palestinians in the West Bank since the October 2023 Gaza conflict, highlighting the case of 17‑year‑old Walid Ahmad, whose death by starvation in custody was ruled “undeterminable” by an Israeli judge, as evidence of the low value placed on Palestinian lives.Leibowitz also pointed to the recent dropping of charges against soldiers accused of sexual abuse at Sde Temain prison, noting that far‑right protesters, including lawmakers, rallied in support of the accused, further normalising systemic abuse.Touma‑Suleiman linked the new law to the 2018 Nation‑State legislation, recalling a confrontation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which he dismissed her criticism, insisting Israel remains “the Middle East’s only democracy.” She later observed that far‑right leader Itamar Ben‑Gvir has openly chanted “Death to Arabs,” rebranding it as “Death to terrorists,” thereby blurring the line between extremist rhetoric and state policy.Overall, the death‑penalty law is being portrayed by critics as a stark illustration of an entrenched apartheid system, raising serious questions about Israel’s adherence to international legal standards and the future of Palestinian rights under occupation.
#israel #palestinians #law
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News Apr 02, 2026

Russia Pledges Continued Support to Cuba with Oil Shipments

Russia has reaffirmed its commitment to assisting Cuba, a day after delivering the island nation's …
Russia has pledged to continue providing assistance to Cuba, following the delivery of a Russian-flagged tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of oil to the island nation. This shipment marks the first crude oil delivery to Cuba in three months, providing much-needed relief to the country's struggling energy grid.Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that Cuba is Russia's closest friend and partner in the Caribbean, and that Russia will not abandon it. Zakharova also expressed solidarity with Cuba, calling for the US to lift its blockade on the independent sovereign state.The oil shipment, which arrived at the Bay of Matanzas, is expected to produce approximately 180,000 barrels of diesel, enough to meet Cuba's daily demand for nine or 10 days. This temporary reprieve comes as Cuba faces an energy crisis, exacerbated by the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies following the removal of President Nicolas Maduro in January.The energy crisis has led to frequent blackouts and brought hospitals, public transportation, and farm production to the brink of collapse. The Cuban government has welcomed the shipment, with Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy expressing gratitude to Russia for its support.Russia's actions have drawn attention from the US, with President Donald Trump stating that he had 'no problem' with Russia sending oil to Cuba for humanitarian reasons. However, Trump also criticized Cuba's leadership, saying that the island nation's problems would not be solved by receiving oil shipments.
#cuba #oil #russia
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