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For the second consecutive year, US Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the leading candidate in the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a prominent right-wing gathering in the United States. The poll, which is not necessarily an accurate predictor of the Republican nominee, saw Vance secure 53 percent of the votes from nearly 1,600 attendees. This significant lead highlights Vance's strong support within the conservative base. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another senior official under President Donald Trump, showed a notable improvement from last year's poll, where he tied for fourth place. Rubio garnered 35 percent of the vote, indicating a rising popularity among CPAC attendees. The straw poll results were announced on stage at the conference, which took place over four days and featured speakers such as Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro. CPAC's annual conference tends to attract attendees from the political right, and this year's event was no exception. The poll results come at a critical time for the Republican Party, with less than eight months until the midterm elections in the US. The party is hoping to defend its congressional majorities amid challenges such as the ongoing war in Iran and rising gas prices. Vance, a veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio, is seen as representing a more isolationist branch of Trump's 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) base. He has been critical of US involvement in foreign conflicts but has defended Trump's decision to join Israel in joint strikes on Iran. Rubio, on the other hand, has a longer political resume and is viewed as more hawkish towards regime change, particularly in Cuba. Both Vance and Rubio had previously criticized Trump before joining his administration. While the CPAC straw poll has historically shown a realignment in the Republican Party around Trump's politics, it is not always an accurate predictor of future election outcomes. The party's consolidation around Trump's agenda has led to the marginalization of moderate and critical voices.

The ongoing US-Israel war against Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, resulting in a substantial increase in everyday living costs for many Americans. Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which prompted retaliatory attacks on US allies in the region and Iran's decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage, costs have surged across the US. In particular, gas prices have spiked sharply, with the national average rising by roughly 30% over the past month. Additionally, grocery bills, mortgage rates, and fertilizer costs have also climbed. As a result, many Americans are being forced to reassess their finances and cut back drastically on basic necessities such as food, clothing, and electricity. Individuals from various parts of the country, including Indianapolis, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania, have shared their struggles with rising costs and how they are impacting their daily lives and long-term financial planning. For instance, an Indianapolis bank employee named Lore has had to reduce his commuting and is holding on to his old car for as long as possible to avoid the financial burden of a new one. A Massachusetts-based librarian's husband has had to take on extra work to keep up with rising expenses, often working 12 to 14 hour days. An elderly woman in New York described living a very frugal existence and struggling to make ends meet each month. The strain is also hitting small business owners, with a tattoo artist and father in Pennsylvania forced to shut down his private studio after three years due to decreased demand. Rising costs are also intensifying anxieties around healthcare, with a bread factory worker in Michigan expressing concerns about his health and the potential risks he faces simply getting to work.

Pakistan's attempts to facilitate peace talks between Iran and the US are encountering substantial obstacles. The intensification of Israeli bombing campaigns on civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military presence in the Gulf region are casting a shadow over these efforts.Pakistan, maintaining relative neutrality with good relations with both Iran and the US, had hoped to provide a venue for negotiations. However, the conflict is widening, trust is scarce, and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe Israel's actions pose a significant risk to any potential talks, particularly given recent attacks on civilian nuclear sites and steel plants.Iran's core concerns include ensuring an end to the war and preventing future attacks by the US and Israel. Former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi, expressed skepticism about US President Donald Trump's reliability, citing his unpredictable nature.Despite these challenges, Pakistan continues its diplomatic efforts. The country's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has been in communication with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are set to hold talks in Islamabad to discuss ending the conflict.The situation remains complex, with US troop buildup suggesting that peace talks may not align with US plans. Iran has expressed distrust towards previous US interlocutors, but there is consideration for US Vice-President JD Vance to represent the US in talks, an idea supported by Iran.

The Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, have entered the conflict with missile attacks on Israeli military sites. The true significance of their involvement depends on whether they intend to launch sporadic attacks or effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping. Disruption of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz could have a devastating impact on global trade and economy. The Houthis' ability to interdict ships poses a significant threat, and their actions could drive up shipping costs and oil prices. The Houthis have a complex relationship with Iran, receiving arms from Tehran but not directly fighting on its behalf. A ceasefire with the US, mediated by Oman, has been in place since May 2025, but it does not apply to Israel. Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen's future is crucial, as it seeks to reach deals with the Houthis and former Southern Transitional Council (STC) supporters. The Houthis may act cautiously, seeking financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. The conflict could drag Yemen further into regional war, making peace more difficult and prolonging civilian suffering. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has warned of the escalation's risks, stating it will deepen economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

The possibility of US ground troops being sent into combat on Iranian soil is growing, driven by President Trump's desire to avoid being personally and politically humiliated in a war he started, mismanaged, and cannot end. Such a self-serving escalation could prove catastrophic for Trump and the American people, given the history of US military interventions in the region.Trump insists that the war is all but won, Iran is suing for peace, and talks are making good progress. However, in the real world, Iran is still fighting on all fronts, Israel is still bombing, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has joined the war, attacking Israel and potentially blocking Red Sea trade routes.The US and Iran have each issued maximalist demands, but there is no sign of actual negotiations. They are even further apart than they were before Trump, egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned diplomacy last month. Sometime soon, Trump will be forced to confront the huge gap between what he wants and what's on offer. At that point, he could turn to the troop buildup in the Gulf and order ground attacks.It's incredible to think that after all the mortal agony and anguish of Iraq and Afghanistan, a US president is once again seriously contemplating boots on the ground in the Middle East. Trump's stumped, hoist by his own petard, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and up the creek without a paddle. The creek in question is, of course, the Strait of Hormuz.Trump is increasingly isolated and out on a limb. His wealthy Arab business cronies no longer trust him. US bases on their territory now resemble a liability, not a defence. When he demanded NATO's help, Europe said: we'll let you know. Likewise, Iran's ethnic Kurds are less than keen to die for a muppet. Support for the war among the US public and the Maga right, always weak, is a fast-vanishing mirage.If Trump were to order ground attacks – both he and Netanyahu have publicly discussed the possibility – the targets would most likely be the coastal batteries, missile defences, and concealed armed speedboat bases dotting the northern flank of the Hormuz strait. An attack on the Kharg oil export terminal further up the Gulf is also predicted.The inherent, inescapable military risks are daunting. Casualties would be inevitable. Even if operations went well in the short term, questions would immediately arise about potential escalation when Iran counterattacked, expansion of the operational area, and duration of the occupation.

The conflict in the Middle East has taken a dramatic turn as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a second wave of attacks on Israel since joining the conflict on Saturday. The Houthis have vowed to continue their military operations in the coming days until Israel "ceases its attacks and aggression".In a significant escalation, two powerful explosions shook northern Tehran early on Sunday, with air defenses operating in the Iranian capital. The blasts occurred around 7:20 am, but it was not immediately clear what was targeted.Meanwhile, the US is reportedly preparing plans for ground operations in Iran, with the Trump administration having already deployed US Marines to the Middle East. The Pentagon is considering weeks of ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz.The entry of the Houthis into the conflict poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a critical choke point in the supply chain of energy supplies and other trade in and out of the Middle East. A shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has told one of the US's biggest annual gatherings of conservatives that he is ready to lead a new Iranian government and would call on the country's citizens to rise up when the "right moment arrives".Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US universities in the Middle East after saying US-Israeli strikes had deliberately targeted two Iranian universities.

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The recent dynamics between the United States and Israel have sparked concerns about their unintended impact on Iran's influence in the Middle East. Critics argue that the aggressive stance taken by these countries may inadvertently play into Iran's hands, potentially bolstering its position. Iran, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, has been navigating complex geopolitical relationships. The country's strategic interests and diplomatic maneuvers are often scrutinized for their implications on regional stability. The policies pursued by the US and Israel have been criticized for their potential to galvanize support for Iran among its allies and within the Muslim world. This could lead to a strengthening of Iran's influence, both diplomatically and economically. Experts suggest that a nuanced approach to Iran's geopolitical role is necessary, one that considers the long-term consequences of current policies. The international community remains watchful, as shifts in Iran's influence could have far-reaching implications for global politics and security.