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Oil and gas prices experienced a significant decline of almost 10% on Friday following Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping. This development could pave the way for tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil and gas to access the global market.Iran's foreign minister stated that vessels are free to transit the Strait of Hormuz during the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell by 9% to $90 a barrel, while the benchmark European gas contract dropped by about 8.5% to €38.80 (£33.80) per megawatt hour.The US naval blockade on Iran's use of the strait remains in full force, according to Donald Trump, until a deal is reached with Tehran. Trump expressed optimism that the process will move quickly, as most points have already been negotiated.The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted supplies of Middle Eastern crude and gas, as well as refined fuels from Gulf refineries, in what the International Energy Agency has described as the biggest energy supply crisis in history. Before the crisis, over 130 ships a day travelled through the strait, but this has reduced to a trickle under threats from Iran's Revolutionary Guards.There are currently around 800 tankers stuck in the Gulf, with about 300 being oil and gas tankers. It remains uncertain whether tankers will be required to pay a fee of about $2m (£1.5m) for safe passage through the strait.Analysts, such as Giovanni Staunovo from UBS, view Iran's comments as a sign of de-escalation, but emphasize the need to see a substantial increase in the number of tankers crossing the strait.

A devastating fire has engulfed the largest of Australia's two oil refineries, operated by Viva Energy in Geelong, Victoria. The blaze, which began on Wednesday night, had been brought under control by Thursday noon. The refinery, which processes 120,000 barrels of oil per day, accounts for approximately 10% of Australia's fuel production.The fire was triggered by a gas leak that ignited, sending flames as high as 60m (200 feet) into the air. Fortunately, firefighters managed to contain the blaze without it spreading to other parts of the plant, which produces high-octane petrol, jet fuel, and diesel.The incident comes at a critical time for Australia, which relies on imports for 80% of its fuel needs. The country is racing to replace supply disrupted by the Middle East conflict, which has driven up energy prices worldwide. Fuel security is a growing concern in the Asia Pacific region, with Australia lacking major stockpiles.In response to the crisis, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that Australia had secured an additional supply of 100 million litres of diesel from Brunei and South Korea. The government has urged Australians to avoid panic-buying fuel and to conserve petrol where possible.Australia's fuel reserves stand at approximately 38 days' worth of petrol, falling short of the 90-day minimum recommended by the International Energy Agency. The country is heavily reliant on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen shipping traffic cease since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.

Iran has deployed small surface vessels to lay mines in parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global shipping. The exact number of mines laid is unknown, but Iran has left a path open to ships that are prepared to pay a toll.According to US officials, Iran has indicated that it cannot locate all of the mines that it has laid and lacks the capability to remove them. The mines are part of an array of offensive options available to Iran in the strait, including cheap drones, anti-ship missiles, and fast-attack small vessels.Iran is thought to have deployed two main types of mine: the Maham 3 and the Maham 7. The Maham 3 is an anchored, 300kg mine that can be used in waters as deep as 100 meters, while the Maham 7 is a bottom-resting 220kg mine for use in shallower waters.The US plans to use uncrewed marine mine-hunting vehicles, such as the Knifefish undersea mine hunter, to clear the mines. The US could also deploy the AN/ASQ-235 (Archerfish) airborne mine neutralization system from an MH 60S helicopter.The global economy's reliance on maritime trade gives countries deploying mines an outsized leverage compared with the relatively low cost of laying the mines. It takes only a small number of mines to close sea lanes, not least because some mines can be set to detonate after a certain number of ships have passed over, creating uncertainty.

Recent talks in Islamabad between Washington and Tehran collapsed, reflecting the stark mismatch between the United States' 15‑point proposal and Iran's 10‑point counter‑offer. The brief negotiations, led by U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, failed to bridge core disagreements on nuclear policy and regional security. Vance attributed the breakdown to Iran's outright rejection of U.S. terms, while President Donald Trump responded by imposing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Such a blockade is legally an act of war, raising the specter of Iranian retaliation against Gulf monarchies and a sharp spike in global oil, diesel, and LNG prices. Both sides, however, have not ruled out renewed negotiations. Pakistan and Egypt are quietly mediating, recognizing that a renewed conflict would deepen President Trump's domestic challenges—rising inflation, declining poll numbers, and the approaching midterm elections—while also exacerbating Iran's economic hardship and social unrest. The proposed diplomatic framework focuses on three pillars: Limited uranium enrichment: The U.S. would acknowledge Iran's right, under the Non‑Proliferation Treaty, to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, capping enrichment at 3.67% (the 2015 JCPOA limit). Monitoring would be conducted by the IAEA through electronic and on‑site inspections, with a potential 20‑year renewable agreement. Sanctions relief and asset release: In exchange for Iran dropping its demand for war reparations, the United States would lift primary and secondary sanctions and unfreeze all Iranian assets. Additionally, Iran would be authorized to levy a $2 million fee per oil tanker transiting Hormuz, shared with Oman, provided it guarantees innocent passage under a multinational oversight coalition that includes Russia and China. Security guarantees: Iran would issue a written pledge not to develop nuclear weapons, echoing the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s injunction. Simultaneously, the U.S. and UN Security Council would endorse a non‑aggression pact between the two nations, with parallel agreements possible for Gulf states. For the plan to succeed, three conditions must be met: Washington must make genuine concessions; President Trump must extend the 22 April cease‑fire deadline and allow sufficient time for complex negotiations; and any Israeli offensive against Iran must be avoided, as it would jeopardize the entire process. Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of international relations at CUNY’s Powell School and senior research fellow at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute, outlines this pragmatic approach as a means to avert a full‑scale war and secure a durable peace in the Middle East.

The UK is bracing for possible gaps on supermarket shelves this summer as the ongoing conflict in Iran threatens to disrupt carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies, a critical component in the food industry. CO2 is essential for the humane slaughter of livestock, packaging of fresh meats and produce, and production of fizzy drinks and beer.Government ministers are reportedly drawing up contingency plans for a 'reasonable worst-case scenario' if the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, remains closed. This could lead to shortages of CO2, impacting supplies of chicken, pork, and fizzy drinks.The business secretary, Peter Kyle, has reassured the public that ministers are making contingency plans to deal with possible consequences of the Iran war. The government has invested £100m to reopen the mothballed Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside to mitigate potential CO2 shortages.The CEO of Tesco, Ken Murphy, has expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage supply chains, stating that they have 'seen nothing at this point' in terms of problems within their supply chain caused by CO2 availability issues. However, the UK is one of Europe's largest users of CO2, and any disruption could have significant impacts on the food industry and beyond.

A Pakistani delegation headed by Army Chief General Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, bearing a fresh message from Washington and urging the launch of a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran. The effort comes as the two‑week ceasefire that halted hostilities last week is set to expire on April 22, leaving a narrow window to end a war that has claimed more than 4,000 lives across the Middle East, primarily in Iran and Lebanon. The initial round of talks, held in Islamabad on April 11‑12, marked the most significant direct engagement between Washington and Tehran in decades. Mediated by Pakistan, the sessions lasted over 20 hours and featured both indirect and direct exchanges between U.S. Vice President JD Vance and senior Iranian officials led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Despite covering core issues—nuclear programme, sanctions relief, frozen assets and control of the Strait of Hormuz—the talks concluded without a memorandum, with Vance asserting that Iran “did not accept our terms” and that the U.S. requires a “fundamental commitment” to forego nuclear weapons. President Donald Trump has described the conflict as “very close to being over” and hinted that a second round could resume within days, possibly in Islamabad. However, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is currently on a four‑day tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to rally regional backing, making a rapid return to Islamabad uncertain. U.S. officials have offered an “in‑principle” agreement to extend the ceasefire, yet a Reuters‑cited source confirmed that Washington has not formally committed to an extension. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism, stating that “there can be no negotiating with clenched fists.” Key sticking points remain: Nuclear programme: The United States and Israel demand a complete halt to uranium enrichment, accusing Iran of weaponization despite a lack of public evidence. Iran maintains its enrichment is for civilian use and cites its obligations under the 1970 Non‑Proliferation Treaty. Strait of Hormuz: One‑fifth of global oil and LNG passes through this chokepoint. Since the February strikes, shipping through the strait has dropped by 95 %. Iran permits passage for “non‑hostile” vessels and seeks the right to levy tolls, while the U.S. insists on unrestricted navigation. Lebanon/Hezbollah: Iran demands that Israel cease its offensive against Hezbollah. While Tehran claims the ceasefire covers Lebanon, both the United States and Israel reject this, and Israel continues attacks on Hezbollah positions. Complicating the diplomatic landscape, President Trump announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, adding pressure on Tehran and potentially hindering any imminent talks. With the ceasefire deadline looming and regional actors issuing mixed signals, the prospects for a renewed U.S.–Iran dialogue hinge on whether Pakistan can secure a consensus among the parties before the window closes.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, calling for closer and stronger strategic coordination between Beijing and Moscow. The meeting took place in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where Xi emphasized the need to firmly defend their legitimate interests and safeguard the unity of Global South countries.Xi described the stability and certainty of China-Russia relations as particularly precious in an international landscape marked by change and chaos. This comes as the world faces growing fears over the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a global food crisis as critical fertiliser and fuel exports are blocked.Lavrov told a news conference after meeting Xi that Moscow could compensate for China’s energy shortages as shipping through the strait remains choked. China and Russia are not formal military allies but maintain extremely close economic and political ties, with Xi signing a 'no limits' strategic partnership with President Vladimir Putin in 2022.The visit by Lavrov to Beijing this week also included meetings with other leaders, such as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Vietnamese leader To Lam. In talks with Sanchez, Xi warned that the world was facing 'chaos and turmoil' and 'a contest between justice and force', urging closer cooperation.

Gray whales have historically been a rare sight in the San Francisco Bay. They migrate over 10,000 miles from Mexico's Baja California to the Arctic region, seldom stopping in the busy shipping corridor for prolonged periods. However, in recent years, this has changed in a dire way.A new study published in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science has found that gray whales in the bay have been dying at alarming rates, largely due to collisions with vessels. Eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales began to appear more frequently in the well-trafficked maritime corridor around 2018.According to researchers, at least 18% of gray whales that entered the bay from 2018 to 2025 have died. They determined that for more than 40% of the whale carcasses, the cause of death was blunt force trauma consistent with vessel strikes, prompting calls for renewed efforts to help avoid more fatal collisions.“It was historically very unusual for them to enter the bay, especially for longer amounts of time or consistently year after year,” said Josie Slaathaug, lead author of the study. There are whale subgroups known to hunt for food south of the Arctic, but a majority of the recently spotted whales feeding in the bay were not a part of these foraging clusters.A wave of new whale presence had not been observed in the waters since the late 1990s. Researchers have theorized that Arctic warming is disrupting food availability for the whales, driving them to hunt in new places such as the bay, although it remains unclear what exactly they may be eating there.Their potential new feeding corner, though, is a major shipping route. The true mortality rate for whales in the bay may be higher, hovering somewhere from 40% to 50%, Slaathaug said.In recent years, there have been several reports of dead whales that wash up on Bay Area beaches. The ENP gray whale population has been in decline due to malnutrition and starvation from climate-driven prey shifts in the Arctic. The Southwest Fisheries Science Center estimated a population total of about 13,000 whales, its lowest count since 1970.“It’s not unique to their migratory corridor that a lot of whales are dying,” Slaathaug said. “What is unique about San Francisco Bay and this study was that there was such a clear emerging cause of death.”Some local efforts are under way to reduce vessel collisions. The Marine Mammal Center has developed a program called Whale Smart, to educate vessel operators in the San Francisco Bay on how to interpret whale behavior to avoid close encounters.In Alaska, where vessels also pose a threat to the whale population, one fleet company partnered with WhaleSpotter, a company that uses AI and thermal imaging to detect the presence of whales, so they can change course well in advance.Last year, the Center for Biological Diversity, a conservation group, sued the US Coast Guard, which regulates vessel traffic off the California coast, for failing to analyze how vessel routes may harm whales and sea turtles.“This most recent study about the gray whales reaffirms that we have way underestimated the problem and we are not managing human activities well enough to avoid the whales,” said Catherine Kilduff, senior attorney at the center.Federal action is needed to reduce the fatal collisions, Kilduff said. According to the Endangered Species Act, the coast guard should be consulting with the National Marine Fisheries Service when setting shipping lanes to assess impact to marine wildlife.Kilduff also suggested mandatory speed limits for vessels. “There are voluntary speed reductions on the west coast, but there is evidence that those aren’t effective. The compliance rate isn’t high enough,” she said.A 2022 study co-authored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that the average speeds of large vessels had decreased from 2010 to 2019 in voluntary speed reduction zones. But, researchers determined that the cooperation rate of roughly 50% was lower than the amount needed to reduce vessel strike-related mortality to a level that maintains a sustainable whale population.“These whales are using the oceans in such a sophisticated way. We can learn so much from them, and if we can figure out ways to avoid killing them, I know that they’ll come back to healthy population levels,” Kilduff said.

On the first day of the US blockade on Iranian ports, at least three vessels, including two US-sanctioned tankers, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf. According to shipping data, these vessels were not bound for Iranian ports, thus avoiding the impact of the blockade.A Panama-flagged medium-range tanker, Peace Gulf, was headed to Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Data from LSEG and Kpler showed that the vessel typically transports Iranian naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock, to other non-Iranian ports in the Middle East for export to Asia.Two US-sanctioned tankers, Murlikishan and Rich Starry, also navigated through the strait. Murlikishan, a handy tanker, was set to load fuel oil in Iraq on Thursday. The vessel, previously known as MKA, has a history of transporting Russian and Iranian oil. Rich Starry, a medium-range tanker carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol, was the first sanctioned tanker to exit the Gulf since the blockade began. The tanker and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, were sanctioned by the US for dealing with Iran.The US blockade was announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday, following the collapse of peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad. The blockade aims to restrict Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. Iran had previously halted traffic through the strait in response to US-Israeli attacks, causing a spike in global gas and petrol prices.The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the US move, calling it 'dangerous and irresponsible' and warning that it would escalate tensions and undermine the fragile ceasefire agreement. China, which imports over half of its oil from the Middle East, especially Iran, expressed concerns about the impact on oil supplies.Despite the blockade, there are still prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. Trump indicated that Iran still has an opportunity to strike a deal, and a Pakistani official stated that the country is willing to host peace talks.