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The Global Obesity Landscape: Not a Uniform EpidemicA continuing rise in obesity around the world is not inevitable, research suggests, with rates in some countries levelling off or potentially in decline. Researchers say focusing on what has been described as a global epidemic of obesity hides large variations in trends across different countries, sexes and age groups.Majid Ezzati, a professor of global environmental health at Imperial College London and author of the study, said: "I think the thing that's really important is this diversity exists even across countries that have really similar economic, environmental, technological features. So countries may look the same on the surface of it but obesity looks different."Comprehensive Analysis Reveals Complex PatternsWriting in the journal Nature, the international team, which involved a network of almost 2,000 researchers, described how for each country they calculated the change in the prevalence of obesity each year between 1980 and 2024. They drew on data from 4,050 population-based studies involving 232 million participants aged five years and above.They found that the prevalence of obesity increased in almost all countries over the 45-year period. However, in most high-income countries, a rapid rise in the prevalence of obesity has been replaced by a slower increase, a plateau, or a potential decline.Regional Variations in Obesity PrevalenceThe rate of growth in obesity is slowing in adults in the US and UK, reaching a prevalence of 40-43% and 27-30% respectively in 2024. Obesity is increasing steadily in Finland, has plateaued in Germany and may have started to decline in France, where 24-25%, 20-23% and 11-12% of adults respectively were thought to have the condition in 2024.Slowdowns were often seen in children and adolescents before adults. For the former group, the slowdown started as early as 1990 in Denmark and rates stabilised in most high-income countries by the mid-2000s. Obesity has plateaued in boys and girls in the UK, US, Germany and Japan at prevalences of 10-12%, 20-23%, 7-12% and 3-7% respectively.Meanwhile, obesity among young people and adults in many low-income and middle-income countries continues to rise and in some cases this is accelerating.Understanding the Drivers Behind Divergent TrendsThe team say it is important now to unpick what is behind the trends in different countries. The situation is complex: while there may be shared reasons for obesity, such easy access to unhealthy foods or a decrease in physical activity, the team say country-specific factors rooted in social, economic and policy considerations could also be important, from perceptions around body image to the presence or absence of interventions such as healthy school meals.Naveed Sattar, a professor of metabolic medicine at the University of Glasgow, who was not involved in the work, said the study highlighted how obesity trends were diverging sharply across countries. "English-speaking nations are doing particularly poorly, with the UK now among the countries with the highest obesity levels worldwide," he said.Sattar said it was encouraging that some countries appeared to have reached a plateau in obesity rates. "Understanding what has worked in those settings is crucial as it could help shape more effective public health strategies for the UK," he said, although he noted there could be country-specific aspects or customs at play.Future Outlook and Potential InterventionsHe said the rapid rise in obesity across many developing countries was especially concerning, not least as it could result in increases in diabetes and cardiovascular conditions.He added: "Looking ahead, it will be important to see how wider use of effective weight-loss medicines affects obesity trends, particularly in the UK and the United States. Recent signs of stabilisation in the USA suggest there may be room for cautious optimism. Combining evidence-based medicines with strong public health measures could begin to shift obesity rates in the right direction."

The Nostalgia Factor Nintendo's announcement of a Star Fox 64 remake has brought back memories for many gamers who grew up playing the game on the Nintendo 64 console. The game's 3D graphics and Rumble Pak technology were innovative features at the time of its release. The Remake Details The remake of Star Fox 64 will feature updated visuals and character designs, as well as newly voiced lines. The game's levels and layout will remain largely the same, with some minor changes. The Concerns Some gamers have expressed concerns that the remake is a rework of a game that is already 30 years old, rather than a new game in the series. There is a fear that the gaming industry is relying too heavily on nostalgia, rather than innovating and creating new experiences. The Industry Context The gaming industry has seen a trend of remakes and re-releases of classic games in recent years. This has been driven in part by the success of games like Resident Evil and Final Fantasy, which have seen significant updates and re-releases. The Future Outlook As the gaming industry continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how developers balance nostalgia with innovation. Will the remake of Star Fox 64 be a success, or will gamers be looking for something new and different?

The humanitarian crisis in Haiti's capital has escalated dramatically, with residents of the Cite Soleil neighborhood taking to the streets to demand immediate government protection after a weekend surge in gang violence forced hundreds to flee their homes. The Collapse of Security in Cite Soleil Protesters reported witnessing people being killed in Cite Soleil in recent days, yet Haitian authorities have remained silent regarding casualty figures. This violence is part of a broader trend where armed gangs have tightened their grip on the capital since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in July 2021. Police reports indicate these groups now control approximately 70 percent of the capital. Displacement Statistics and Gang Dominance The displacement crisis has reached critical levels. A report by the International Organization for Migration estimates that more than 1.4 million people have been uprooted by gang warfare. Of these, about 200,000 are currently living in overcrowded and underfunded sites within the capital, highlighting the severe strain on urban infrastructure. The Humanitarian Toll on Healthcare Medical services are facing an existential threat. In a statement released on Monday, Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres) announced the evacuation of its hospital in Cite Soleil following intense clashes on Sunday. Furthermore, the Centre Hospitalier de Fontaine suspended operations, having successfully evacuated all patients, including 11 newborns, to safety. The Unfolding International Security Mission The situation is poised for a potential shift with the deployment of an international security mission. The UN Security Council approved a plan for a 5,550-member force in late September, with the first foreign troops arriving in April. However, the full contingent has yet to arrive, and only an undisclosed number of troops from Chad have been deployed so far.

Vistry warned that its first‑half adjusted pre‑tax profit will be "significantly lower" than the prior year, citing the fallout from the US‑Israeli war on Iran. The warning sent the stock down 10.5%, its lowest level in nearly 15 years, and prompted a company‑wide operational review led by new CEO Adam Daniels. Vistry’s Profit Warning Amid Middle East Conflict The housebuilder, owner of Bovis Homes, Countryside and Linden Homes, updated investors hours before its AGM, stating that heightened macro‑economic uncertainty has altered the outlook since the March update. While sales volumes remain above last year, buyer caution has risen sharply due to the conflict. Financial Fallout: Share Drop and Profit Forecasts Key financial signals include: Share price fell 10.5% in early trading, reaching a 15‑year trough. First‑half profit expected to be "significantly lower" than 2025. Adjusted pre‑tax profit for 2026 projected to sit in the "middle of the range" of analyst forecasts. Company halted its share‑buy‑back programme to prioritise debt reduction. Ripple Effects on the UK Housing Market and Supply Chain The conflict has introduced upward pressure on building‑material costs and labour wages, pressures Vistry expects to persist into the second half of the year. To mitigate, Vistry is negotiating with suppliers and offering larger buyer incentives, actions that further compress margins. Industry analysts, such as Anthony Codling of RBC Capital Markets, note that while execution risks remain high, the update reflects a broader slowdown in UK housing activity. Outlook: Operational Review and Path to Recovery CEO Adam Daniels has launched a company‑wide operational review, with findings slated for September. The firm anticipates a partial recovery in the second half of the year, aiming for profits flat with 2025 levels and a return to a more stable growth trajectory thereafter.

The Lead: A High-Stakes Diplomatic Encounter Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to seek concessions on Taiwan and US tariffs when he meets United States President Donald Trump for a critical summit taking place in the shadow of the war on Iran. Trump's arrival in China marks the first trip by a US leader to the country since 2017, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal moment in US-China relations. The Taiwan Confrontation: Core Interest and Red Lines Unlike Trump's mercurial policymaking approach, Xi is widely seen as predictable in his goals for the summit, particularly concerning Beijing's "core interests" related to national security and territorial integrity. At the top of that list is Taiwan, which Beijing views as an inalienable part of its territory despite Taiwan's self-governing status. China has named Taiwan as the first of "four red lines" that "must not be challenged." In a call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Taiwan as "the biggest risk in the China-US relationship." While analysts say it's unlikely the US will change its position on Taiwan due to Chinese pressure, Trump has indicated the summit will include discussions about the $14bn arms package approved by Congress for Taiwan. The Trade War Dynamics: Economic Uncertainty and Strategic Maneuvering Xi is also eager to smooth over US-China relations after a tumultuous 18 months that saw Trump launch a second trade war with the world's second-largest economy. The standoff saw both countries implement escalating tariffs and punitive measures, including export controls, before hitting pause in May. During their last meeting in South Korea in October, Xi and Trump agreed to a one-year reprieve in their trade war, though some trade measures remain in place. China is likely to agree to increase purchases of US agricultural exports and Boeing planes during the summit, but is unlikely to make concessions on rare earths—a sector it dominates—without major political trade-offs from the US. The Geopolitical Chessboard: Iran Conflict and Global Implications The US-Israel war on Iran will loom large over the summit. Although not a direct participant, China has been significantly impacted by the economic fallout of the conflict and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies typically pass. Beijing has consistently called for negotiations and a comprehensive ceasefire since the conflict began, a message Xi is likely to reiterate. Despite Trump stating he doesn't need China's "help" resolving the war, the White House has pressured Beijing to influence Iran to reopen the strait. China has maintained a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Iran since 2016 and purchases more than 80% of its oil, though Xi is expected to limit China's role to mediation, consistent with its non-intervention foreign policy principle. The Future of US-China Relations: Strategic Adjustments and Long-term Planning For Beijing, the stakes are particularly high as its view of Trump has shifted from a "predictable transactional counterpart" to a "more action-oriented and harder-to-restrain opponent." Rather than securing immediate concessions, China's priority is "trying to adjust the current strategic position and negotiating pace that are unfavorable to it, and bring US-China interactions back into a framework that it can better control." Xi may also support Trump's plan to create a "Board of Trade" and "Board of Investment" to oversee US-China economic ties, as Beijing seeks predictability and certainty for the remainder of Trump's term through January 2029. This stability would allow China to plan its own economic policies with greater confidence, particularly regarding tariff levels and trade relationships.

Executive Summary: Trump‑Xi Summit Sets the Stage for a US‑China Power Contest Donald Trump will meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14‑15, 2026. The talks, delayed by the US‑Israel war on Iran, are expected to focus on trade, debt, military spending and emerging technologies, marking the first US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. Trade Metrics Highlight China’s Export Supremacy According to the World Bank’s WITS, China exported $3.59 trillion of goods in 2024, surpassing the US’s $1.9 trillion. China now leads 145 economies in trade volume, while the US trails with a trade deficit of roughly $1.2 trillion (imports $3.12 trillion vs exports $1.9 trillion). Top Chinese exports: Machinery & electrical machines $1.68 trillion, metals $286 bn, textiles $268 bn. Top US exports: Machinery & electrical machines $447 bn, mineral products $364 bn, chemicals $245 bn. Numbers Behind the Trade Gap, Debt and Military Budgets In 2024 China posted a trade surplus of over $1 trillion, while the US ran a deficit of about $1.2 trillion. Government debt stands at 115 % of GDP for the US and 94 % of GDP for China, with the US national debt exceeding $39 trillion. Military spending in 2025 was $954 bn for the US (3.1 % of GDP) versus $336 bn for China (1.7 % of GDP). Strategic Implications for the Global Power Balance The data underscore a shift: China now leads in export volume, rare‑earth reserves (44 million tonnes vs US 1.9 million tonnes), and green‑energy investment ($290 bn vs US $97 bn). The US retains advantages in AI corporate spending ($109 bn in 2024) and semiconductor technology. Both powers dominate global military outlays, together accounting for over half of worldwide defence spending. Outlook: What the May Summit May Determine Analysts expect the summit to address tariff levels (US average tariff on Chinese imports ~31.6 %), rare‑earth supply security, and coordination on climate‑energy policy. A de‑escalation could stabilize trade flows and reduce debt‑driven fiscal pressures, while a hard‑line stance may deepen the bifurcation of technology supply chains and reinforce competing growth models.

The Trump-Xi Summit: A Pivotal Moment in US-China Relations Donald Trump's state visit to China this week – the first by the US president in nearly a decade – comes amid a time of geopolitical upheaval, a new and intractable conflict in the Middle East, and a sometimes rocky relationship between the world's two major superpowers. There is much for Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss, but a few key issues are likely to dominate the agenda. Five Critical Issues on the Summit Agenda The high-stakes meeting between the two leaders addresses several pressing matters that could reshape the global landscape: The Iran Conflict and Hormuz Strait Crisis Trump is eager for China to lean on Tehran to advance peace talks and reopen the strait of Hormuz. To now, Beijing has sat back and watched the US struggle against Iran, at least publicly. But with about half of China's crude oil imports passing through the strait, Xi does want the waterway unblocked. China knows its exports will suffer if a global recession results from an oil supply crisis. Complicating the picture, the US this week put sanctions on several Chinese firms accused of assisting Iranian oil shipments and supplying satellite imagery allegedly used in Iranian military operations, claims that Beijing denied. Trump's arrival comes after Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing last week. Taiwan: The Flashpoint in US-China Relations Beijing is keen to push the US on Taiwan, with Trump saying he is prepared to raise the issue of arms sales to the island, which China claims as a breakaway territory despite never having ruled it. In December, Trump authorised an $11bn arms package for Taiwan, the largest weapons sale ever to the island, but no shipments have been made yet. Xi may seek changes in how the US refers to Taiwan. Ideally, from the perspective of Beijing, this would be a statement from Washington "opposing" Taiwan's independence rather than "not supporting" it. Taiwan will be watching closely. Just two weeks ago, China's foreign minister in a phone call with Marco Rubio urged the US to "make the right choices" on Taiwan. With Trump known to veer off script, John Kirby, a former US state department and Pentagon spokesperson cautioned: "They just have to be so extraordinarily precise when you're talking about Taiwan because, quite frankly, the stakes are enormously high." The AI Cold War: Technological Supremacy at Stake China and the US are locked into a race on artificial intelligence that is becoming something of a technological cold war. In April, the White House accused China of stealing US AI labs' intellectual property on an industrial scale, claims Beijing denied. Meanwhile, Beijing has been frustrated by Washington's reluctance to allow Nvidia to export its most powerful processing chips to China. In January, the White House said Nvidia could export its second most powerful chip, the H200, but no shipments have been sent yet. Analysts and ethics leaders hope Trump and Xi will discuss non-binding AI guidelines, including sharing information about AI misuse and safety, which are seen as critical guardrails amid the advent of AI weaponry and military adoption. Trade War: Rare Earth Minerals and Economic Leverage Trump has repeatedly threatened China over trade, imposing tariffs above 140% last year. But Xi held some cards of his own and did not fold. Instead, China blocked exports of its rare earth minerals and magnets to the US. Trump, finally, backed down. The US has depleted notable levels of its weapons arsenal in the war against Iran, with many weaponry components requiring critical minerals that are linked to supply chains dominated by China. China is expected to announce purchases related to Boeing airplanes, American agriculture and energy, US officials have said. In turn, Beijing wants the US to ease curbs on exports of advanced semiconductors. Beijing also wants to reduce barriers to investment in the US, and hopes to establish a Board of Investment to match the Trump-back Board of Trade. Fentanyl: The Drug War and Political Posturing Fentanyl is a key item on Trump's agenda this week, Politico reported, citing an administration official granted anonymity to preview the closed-door sessions. The US has long accused Chinese businesses of knowingly supplying the chemical precursors to Mexican cartels who use them to make the drug. Trump knows that being seen to press China hard over fentanyl and precursors plays well with his Maga base. But Trump lost important leverage on the fentanyl front when China defied his tariffs threats. In March, the US and China clashed over fentanyl and trade at a UN drugs meeting. China wants to be removed from the state department's annual list of "major drug transit or illicit drug producing countries", due to be updated in September.

Morning Snapshot: UK Bond Market Bruised by Political Turbulence Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. The UK bond market is bruised this morning after a day of political turbulence drove up Britain’s borrowing costs. Rising Yields: 10‑Year Gilt Above 5% – Highest Since 1998 UK long‑term bond yields hit their highest levels in 28 years on Tuesday, pushing the 10‑year gilt yield back above 5%, the highest level since 1998. Numbers at a Glance: Yield Spike and Borrowing Cost Implications 10‑year gilt yield: > 5% (first time above 5% since 1998) Yield rise triggered by fears of a left‑leaning Labour government and potential fiscal expansion. Higher yields mean investors demand greater compensation, increasing the cost of borrowing for the UK Treasury. Political Shockwaves: Labour Leadership Uncertainty and Reform’s Rise Investors are wary that a shift to the left under Keir Starmer could lead to higher spending and larger deficits. At the same time, the prospect of Nigel Farage entering Downing Street after Reform’s gains in the recent local elections adds another layer of uncertainty. Senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote notes that the market is "grappling with their own political shakeups" and that the combination of fiscal concerns and inflation outlook is driving yields up. Market strategist Bill Blain of Wind Shift Capital cautions that investors may not view Reform as a "safe pair of hands" for managing the bond market and public spending. Looking Ahead: What the King’s Speech Could Mean for Debt Markets The UK government will outline its legislative agenda in the King’s Speech later today, which could provide some respite for Keir Starmer amid ministerial resignations and calls for his departure. 10am BST: IEA monthly oil market report 10am BST: Eurozone GDP report (latest estimate for Q1 2026) 1.30pm BST: US producer prices inflation report for April 3pm BST: Bank of England policymaker Catherine L. Mann to release speech on “The UK’s international exposures and vulnerabilities”

Iran has intensified its war rhetoric against the United Arab Emirates, reclassifying the Gulf state from “neighbor” to “hostile base” and warning of stronger strikes if the United States and Israel resume attacks. The shift reflects Tehran’s broader strategy to pressure the UAE over its military ties with Washington and Jerusalem, and to deter the use of Emirati ports for operations against Iran.Iran Elevates UAE to ‘Hostile Base’ in War RhetoricParliamentary security commissioner Ali Khezrian announced on state television that the “label of ‘neighbors’ … has been lifted, and the label of ‘hostile base’ has been set for the country.” The joint command of the Khatam al‑Anbiya headquarters echoed the sentiment, accusing the UAE of turning its territory into “the den of Americans and Zionists.”The IRGC further warned that the UAE’s deepening military, political and intelligence links with the US and Israel constitute “regional insecurity” and threatened a “crushing and regret‑inducing response” to any further attacks on Iran’s southern islands and ports.Key Chronology and Claims Since the Conflict Began28 Feb 2026 – War erupts; Iran and the US exchange fire in the Strait of Hormuz.Early Mar 2026 – IRGC statements label the UAE a “hostile base.”Mid‑Mar 2026 – Iranian forces claim the UAE’s port of Fujairah lies within Iran‑controlled maritime zones.Early Apr 2026 – Iranian media circulate images suggesting UAE Mirage‑2000‑9 jets over southern Iran.8 Apr 2026 – Iran launches missiles and drones primarily against the UAE following alleged strikes on Iranian oil facilities.Regional Repercussions: How Tehran’s Targeting of the UAE Reshapes Gulf DynamicsThe escalation threatens to widen the conflict beyond the Iran‑Israel front. The UAE has responded by terminating Iranian visas, shutting Iranian businesses, and reinforcing its own defence posture, including the deployment of Iron Dome systems. Tehran’s attempt to reroute imports through land corridors via Pakistan, Iraq and Turkey underscores the economic fallout of a maritime blockade.Moreover, the dispute over the Tunb islands and Abu Musa, held by Iran since 1971, adds a territorial dimension that could draw other Gulf states into a broader confrontation.What’s Next? Potential Escalation Paths and Diplomatic CalculusAnalysts warn that if the United States and Israel resume overt operations, Iran may intensify missile strikes on UAE infrastructure, especially ports that facilitate “American and Zionist” logistics. Conversely, diplomatic pressure from the Abraham Accords partners could push the UAE to seek a de‑escalation framework, leveraging its economic ties with both Tehran and the West.Key variables to watch:U.S. policy shifts regarding direct engagement with Iran.Israel’s willingness to deepen military cooperation with the UAE.Iran’s capacity to sustain land‑based supply routes amid rising food inflation.In the short term, the Gulf is likely to see heightened alert levels, increased naval patrols, and a diplomatic push for a multilateral cease‑fire that explicitly addresses the UAE’s role in the conflict.