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Oil prices have climbed higher amid fading hopes of deescalation in the Iran war following Tehran’s denial that talks with the United States are under way.Futures for Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 2 percent on Thursday to top $104 per barrel after Tehran dismissed reports of direct negotiations with US President Donald Trump’s administration.The rise comes after oil prices eased on Wednesday following reports that Trump had shared a 15-point plan for ending the war with Iran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with state media aired on Wednesday that Tehran was not engaged in direct talks with Washington and has “no intention of negotiating for now”.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned on Wednesday that Iran would be “hit harder” than ever before if Tehran did not accept military defeat.Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies, and its attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East have prompted a surge in energy prices worldwide.Oil prices are up more than 40 percent compared with before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting numerous countries to implement fuel rationing and other energy conservation measures.Market-watchers say prices are likely to rise further until shipping is free to traverse the strait, despite efforts by countries to bolster supply by tapping emergency stockpiles in coordination with the International Energy Agency.While Tehran has repeatedly claimed that the strait is open to ships that are not aligned with its enemies, daily transits have all but collapsed since the start of the conflict.Four vessels were tracked transiting the waterway via their automatic identification systems on Tuesday, down from an average of 120 daily transits before the conflict, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

US President Donald Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days to April 6, 2026. The decision comes as talks between the US and Iran are described as 'going very well'.In a social media post, Trump stated: 'As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time.'Trump also mentioned that despite 'erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media,' talks with Iran are ongoing and progressing well. He had previously urged Iranian leaders to negotiate an end to the near-month-long war or face further assassinations of senior officials.The conflict has resulted in significant escalation, with Israel conducting strikes on Iranian targets, including the killing of Alireza Tangsiri, the Revolutionary Guards' naval commander. Iran has retaliated with strikes across the Middle East, including in Tel Aviv, Modi'in, and Jerusalem.Trump has claimed victory in the war, stating, 'In a certain sense, we have already won.' He has also criticized NATO allies and described Iran as producing 'great negotiators' but 'lousy fighters.'The US and Israel have destroyed much of Iran's naval capabilities, but Tehran still possesses smaller boats capable of laying mines and launching anti-ship cruise missiles. These could render the Strait of Hormuz impassable to shipping.Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, accused the US of 'double standards,' citing the US support for Israel's actions in Gaza while condemning Iran's defense in the Strait of Hormuz.The conflict has resulted in a significant death toll, with over 1,900 people killed in Iran and nearly 1,100 in Lebanon. The situation remains volatile, with fears of further escalation and potential ground invasion.

Following Donald Trump's recent claims that the US is engaged in 'strong talks' to end the war with Iran, Qatar took the unusual step of publicly distancing itself from any alleged diplomatic negotiations. The Gulf state's government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari explicitly stated, 'Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts,' adding pointedly, 'If they exist.'This represents a significant departure from Qatar's traditional role as a chief mediator in Middle East conflicts, having previously facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the US and the Taliban, and peace deals in Lebanon and Sudan.Over the past three weeks, Gulf states have found themselves on the frontlines of the conflict after their mediation efforts to prevent war were ultimately rejected by the US. The pattern of broken negotiations is particularly telling: the US attacked Iran twice during talks aimed at halting the Iranian nuclear program, which were championed by Oman. Discussions last June were halted as the US and Israel conducted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and revived talks in February were similarly undermined when Trump began bombing Tehran before the final round of meetings.Since the war began, Gulf states have been forced to spend billions defending against daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, with their economies and sovereignty suffering substantial damage. Analysts suggest their reluctance to engage with the alleged ceasefire efforts reflects both the heavy toll of continued warfare and lingering suspicion about whether Trump's peace initiatives are genuine or merely a pretext for further escalation.As Bilal Saab, senior managing director of advisory group Trends US and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, explained: 'They've been burned by their previous experience. They previously thought they played a useful mediating role – until they realised that it was all for naught. Not to mention that they have been directly implicated in the war and are still being attacked by the Iranians. So there's a lot of pent-up frustration and disappointment.'By Wednesday night, the Iranian regime had outright rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, submitted to Tehran via Pakistani generals, as 'extremely unreasonable' and presented their own substantially different proposal.The concern among Gulf states is that any negotiations could become a front for military escalation or even the assassination of additional Iranian leaders. This anxiety is compounded by the simultaneous deployment of thousands of US troops to the region and the persistent fear of being used as pawns in the US and Israel's Middle East strategy.Professor Bader al-Saif of Kuwait University noted: 'Whenever the word negotiation was used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately ended up under the rubric of war.' He emphasized that while Gulf states are reluctant to engage with what they perceive as a potential Trumpian charade, they recognize the critical importance of shaping any realistic peace negotiations that could affect their future.The existential threat to Gulf economic ambitions is particularly concerning. The prospect of Trump ending the war with the current Iranian regime still in place—potentially more vengeful than before and acutely aware of the damage its missiles can inflict on multi-billion-dollar infrastructure—poses significant risks. Additionally, there remains no clear solution to Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the region's oil and gas exports flow.Analysts suggest that beyond relying on US-led negotiations, Gulf states should pursue their own separate dialogue with Iran. As al-Saif stated: 'They shouldn't only count on the US to do the negotiation. They should go and strike a deal with Iran for themselves. This was not our war, and if we can shield ourselves from being impacted any further, we should do it to protect our own national interests.'

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced a temporary waiver allowing the sale of a higher-ethanol fuel blend, known as E15, in an effort to alleviate soaring gas prices that have been exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war.E15, which contains a higher percentage of ethanol than standard gasoline, has been prohibited during warm weather months due to concerns over its potential to worsen smog. However, the EPA's decision, supported by the US agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, aims to provide relief to consumers at the pump.“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers,” Rollins stated.The summer waiver for E15 has become a recurring measure in recent years, with both Republicans and Democrats advocating for its permanent implementation to reduce fuel costs. Currently, E15 is already permitted in several states, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, and most of South Dakota.However, not all experts are convinced that the move will significantly lower gas prices. Kenneth Gillingham, a professor at the Yale School of the Environment, pointed out that E15 is not widely available in all states, and some areas lack the necessary infrastructure or sufficient ethanol supply to support increased use.Gillingham also highlighted potential risks associated with E15, particularly for older vehicles, boats, and all-terrain vehicles, due to its higher corrosive ethanol content. Additionally, increased corn usage for ethanol production could lead to higher costs for animal feed and, subsequently, grocery prices.“I think it’s difficult to see when the ledger’s settled how this is a benefit for US consumers,” said Jason Hill, a professor at the University of Minnesota.The decision has also drawn criticism over its potential environmental impacts, with concerns about increased ozone issues, respiratory problems, and even premature deaths.While the oil industry has generally opposed the expansion of E15, citing costly biofuel blending and potential price increases, the American Petroleum Institute has expressed support for the temporary waiver, emphasizing its role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy for American consumers.

US markets witnessed a significant downturn on Thursday, marking their biggest slump since the onset of the US-Israel war with Iran. The Dow closed 450 points down, while the S&P 500 dipped 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.3%, plunging into correction territory, which occurs when an index falls at least 10% below its most recent peak. The conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, reaching levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the end of the day on Thursday, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was about $107 a barrel, while US crude hit $93 a barrel. Average US gas prices at the pump reached $3.98 a gallon, according to AAA. Despite the soaring prices, Donald Trump said that oil prices “have not gone up as much as I thought” during a cabinet meeting on Thursday. He predicted that prices would “come back down to where it was, and probably lower,” and that the impact on the stock market would reverse once the conflict ends. Markets have been growing weary of Trump's mixed signals on the US's stance in negotiations with Iran. Stocks dipped on Thursday morning after Trump posted a warning to Iranian negotiators that they “better get serious, before it’s too late.” However, later in the morning, Trump said that there were “very substantial talks” happening with Iran and that the country allowed 10 oil tankers to pass the blocked strait of Hormuz. The White House announced it will extend a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes by 10 days, until 6 April. A new report estimates US inflation will average 4.2% this year, compared with an average of about 2.6% in 2025, according to the Organization for Economic and Cooperation and Development (OECD). The increase in inflation reverses what was expected to be strong growth for the global economy before the conflict began.

Israel stands as the sole nation where overwhelming public support exists for the conflict with Iran, despite the profound impact on daily life. At least 15 people have been killed and hundreds injured by Iranian missiles since the war began in February, with school closures and missile warnings becoming routine. Polling indicates that more than 90% of Jewish Israelis back the war, a figure that sharply contrasts with international sentiment.The global perspective reveals a dramatically different picture. Nearly a month into the fighting, polling shows that 60% of the US public opposes the war with Iran, and just one in four Americans backed the initial strikes. In the Gulf, Europe and Asia, the conflict is widely unpopular as severe economic consequences begin to manifest.According to Emma Graham-Harrison, The Guardian's chief Middle East correspondent based in Jerusalem, many Jewish Israelis view themselves as under siege in a hostile world since the October 2023 massacre. This perception has led many to conclude that an aggressive security policy is the only way to ensure safety, regardless of international reaction.There's a prevailing sentiment in Israel that short-term suffering will lead to long-term security, despite security experts questioning whether Israel has a clear strategy to convert tactical achievements into lasting security. Life in Jerusalem remains restricted, with many working from home and limitations on businesses from cafes to gyms.The public support for the war has not translated into improved political fortunes for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who currently lags in polls for the upcoming general elections. While there is majority support for Netanyahu's decision to launch the war and his handling of it, even among those who don't want to give him another term, his coalition faces challenges in securing enough seats to return him to power.Some Israeli supporters of the war worry that Netanyahu's push to attack Iran has jeopardized the country's crucial relationship with the United States. Historically, Israel's foreign policy has been based on bipartisan ties, but Netanyahu has effectively abandoned that approach to cultivate an extremely close relationship with Trump.Israel's isolation is becoming increasingly apparent as the conflict continues. Unlike historical precedents where Israel achieved security through negotiated agreements with Jordan and Egypt, the current approach emphasizes military power above diplomatic solutions. This isolation is reflected in the fact that Israel may be the only place in the world with broad support for this war, with populations in Lebanon and Iran experiencing the conflict as horrific.

As Israeli settlers intensify violent attacks against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, often while Israeli forces stand by, a notable shift is occurring in US political circles. Even staunch supporters of Israel within the Democratic party are now publicly denouncing the escalating violence.In recent days, dozens of settlers have engaged in apparently coordinated attacks, torching homes and vehicles while targeting Palestinian civilians. Since the beginning of the month, Israeli settlers and police have killed at least 10 Palestinian civilians in the occupied territory, including two young brothers and their parents who were returning from a Ramadan shopping trip.Among the voices breaking ranks is Ritchie Torres, a New York Democratic representative and one of Israel's most ardent supporters in Congress. In a statement this week, he declared that "the crisis of extremist settler violence in the West Bank must be confronted, and the perpetrators must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law." He called for "zero tolerance for violent extremism, no matter what form it takes."Another pro-Israel Democrat, Daniel Goldman of New York, condemned the violence as an "outrage" and urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring to vote proposed legislation seeking to impose sanctions against those "undermining prospects for a two-state solution by committing illegal violent acts." He also criticized the Trump administration for rescinding sanctions against violent settlers that had been issued under the Biden administration.Several other Aipac-backed politicians have joined the condemnation, including Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, who called on the Israeli government to "stop being complicit," and Arizona Congressman Greg Stanton, who labeled the attacks "acts of terrorism." Ohio Democratic Congresswoman Shontel Brown accused Trump of "green-lighting settler violence," while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen stated that "violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank is a national security threat to Israel and must be treated as such."The political shift comes as US public support for Israel has plummeted. An NBC News poll found that two-thirds of Democrats now say their sympathies lie with Palestinians over Israelis—a dramatic reversal with significant implications for upcoming elections. Meanwhile, 68% of Republicans continue to express stronger support for Israel.A Guardian analysis revealed that Israel has not prosecuted any of its citizens for killing Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank since the start of the decade. The UN has warned that the Israeli government has accelerated illegal settlement expansion, forcibly displacing approximately 36,000 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem over the past year.Political analysts suggest these pro-Israel Democrats are "trapped between the money they've relied on to make their campaigns work and the voters they actually need to win," with condemnation of settler violence offering a way to express discontent without challenging the Israeli state itself.

Donald Trump has launched a scathing attack on the UK's military capabilities, describing its aircraft carriers as 'toys' compared to those of the US. Speaking at the White House, Trump claimed that the UK had offered to send two aircraft carriers to support US military actions against Iran, but he had rejected the offer, saying 'Don't bother, we don't need it.'The comments have sparked a fresh row between Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has refused to engage directly with the US president's repeated insults. Starmer has emphasized his focus on addressing the UK's domestic priorities, including the cost of living crisis, and has reiterated his commitment to defending British interests while avoiding escalation.Tensions between the US and UK have been rising over Nato's role in the conflict with Iran. Trump has expressed disappointment with Nato allies, accusing them of not doing enough to support the US. He also criticized Starmer for not providing sufficient support, saying 'He's not exactly Winston Churchill.'In response, Starmer has reaffirmed the UK's commitment to its Nato allies while emphasizing the need to address the threat posed by Russia. During a visit to Finland, Starmer warned of a 'war on two fronts' – Ukraine and Iran – and highlighted the importance of cooperation between Nato allies to counter these threats.The UK has deployed a warship, HMS Dragon, to the eastern Mediterranean in response to an Iranian-made missile launch from Lebanon at a UK RAF base in Cyprus. Officials are also considering deploying a Royal Navy vessel to support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies.

The deadly conflict in Iran has precipitated what the International Energy Agency describes as the worst oil crisis in history, creating a complex situation for global clean energy efforts. While climate advocates are calling for accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, the war simultaneously presents both opportunities and significant challenges for renewable energy development.US-Israeli strikes on Iran have critically disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime channel through which 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has also seen direct attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure by all parties involved, creating additional market shocks and uncertainty.Interestingly, reduced reliance on oil and gas is proving beneficial for some regions navigating the ongoing fuel crisis. As Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy at Oxford University, explains: Electricity generated from wind and solar is largely insulated from fossil fuel price volatility – once built, the fuel is free.Countries with substantial renewable energy investments are demonstrating greater resilience. Spain and Portugal have witnessed electricity prices decline in recent weeks, while Pakistan has experienced a surge in rooftop solar installations over the past five years, helping the nation weather oil and gas market disruptions.The electric vehicle revolution is also providing some economies with protection against gasoline price increases. In China, more than 50% of all new cars sold are electric, while in Nepal, that figure reaches an impressive 70%.However, the war is creating near-term challenges that could impede clean energy growth. The conflict has disrupted transport routes for metals essential in solar panel construction, particularly aluminum. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, and regional producers have begun scaling back operations amid the hostilities.Furthermore, the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict pose significant hurdles for renewable energy projects, which require substantial upfront investment for construction, equipment, and installation.Paradoxically, the war and resulting energy shocks have provided a short-term boon for fossil fuels, including coal. Many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are burning more coal to meet energy demand as LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz become constrained.The conflict has also incentivized increased oil and gas drilling and exploration, as countries scramble to replace disrupted LNG supplies and higher prices make previously unviable projects economically viable. US company Venture Global recently announced a new five-year contract to supply LNG, while Canadian energy company TC Energy indicated that Iran war disruptions are increasing the likelihood of expanding a massive LNG export facility.The Trump administration has further incentivized oil expansion, recently announcing plans to pay a French company $1 billion to abandon offshore wind farm projects in favor of fossil fuel initiatives.Experts propose various policy responses to encourage the green transition during this crisis. Rosenow advocates for tax reform to reduce the disproportionate burden on electricity compared to gas. Professor Gregor Semieniuk suggests imposing windfall taxes on oil and gas companies during the war, while Lauren Pagel of Earthworks calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies and making polluters pay for their environmental impact.Despite the current challenges, Kingsmill Bond, a strategist for the energy thinktank Ember, maintains that this crisis could ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition: This is the first oil shock in history where oil faces a superior alternative. Solar, wind and EV are cheaper, local, faster to deploy, and huge.