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Executive Summary: Iran's Hormuz Cable Fee ProposalIran has floated a plan to charge US tech companies for using the undersea internet cables that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, aired by state‑linked outlets Tasnim and Fars, claims the scheme could generate hundreds of millions of dollars each year, but experts question its legality and technical feasibility.Details of the Proposed Licence RegimeThe media brief outlines three core elements:Impose licence fees on foreign firms that transmit data over the subsea cables.Require the so‑called “technology giants” – specifically Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft – to operate under Iranian law, effectively forcing joint‑venture arrangements.Monopolise repair and maintenance services for the cables, charging the world for any restoration work.Iran justifies the move by citing article 34 of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which it interprets as granting rights over the seabed of the strait.Financial Estimates and Comparative BenchmarksWhile the exact figure is vague, Tasnim suggests the scheme could bring in hundreds of millions annually. For context, the proposal references Egypt’s model, where fees on cables crossing Egyptian territory are estimated to generate between $250 million and $400 million per year, though precise revenues are not publicly disclosed.Strategic and Operational Implications for the Gulf RegionSeven major cables run beneath the Hormuz strait, many supporting the rapid AI and cloud expansion in Gulf states. Potential consequences include:Disruption of regional internet traffic if fees are enforced or if repair ships are deterred.Limited global impact, as most traffic on these cables serves Gulf countries rather than trans‑Eurasian routes.Increased geopolitical tension, especially given US naval patrols and the strategic importance of the waterway.Experts note that most cables do not terminate in Iran, making fee collection technically challenging. Additionally, imposing tolls would likely require threats or physical interference, a step not previously observed.Outlook: Feasibility, Enforcement, and Regional TensionLegal analysts highlight sanctions and international law as major obstacles. Technically, separating traffic by company is infeasible, and cutting or seizing cables would demand capabilities Iran does not demonstrably possess. Even if Iran attempted to threaten repair vessels, such ships typically avoid operating under fire, potentially prolonging any disruption.In the near term, the proposal appears more rhetorical than actionable, serving as a bargaining chip in the broader US‑Iran confrontation. Unless Iran can develop the requisite maritime and cyber‑monitoring infrastructure, the likelihood of a sustained, enforceable fee regime remains low.

Executive Summary: Forecasts at Risk Amid Budget CutsAs the United States braces for an intense hurricane season and unprecedented summer heat, experts caution that the Trump administration’s proposed 40% reduction in NOAA funding and broader cuts to climate and weather data programs could make federal weather forecasts less reliable when they are needed most.Policy Changes Undermine Data‑Intensive AI ForecastingThe agency launched a suite of AI‑powered global weather models last year, promising faster and more accurate predictions. However, those models are trained on "centuries of weather data," a resource that is being eroded by staffing reductions, satellite de‑commissioning, and fewer balloon launches.NOAA AI model suite introduced late 2025 to improve speed, efficiency, and accuracy.Data cuts include scaling back satellite operations and balloon launches, threatening key observation systems.Budget proposal offers a modest increase for the National Weather Service but a 40% cut to NOAA overall.Financial Impact: The 40% NOAA Funding ReductionThe administration’s budget plan calls for a 40% cut to NOAA’s overall budget while only modestly increasing the National Weather Service’s allocation. This disparity reduces resources for data collection, climate research, and the maintenance of observation networks such as ocean buoys.Broader Consequences for Weather PreparednessReduced data collection hampers the ability of both traditional physics‑based models and newer AI models to predict extreme events. Experts note that AI models, which rely heavily on historical patterns, already "underperform" for unprecedented weather extremes, and further data loss could exacerbate this shortfall.Historical AI model performance lags behind physics‑based models for rare events like the February 2026 blizzard.Cutbacks to climate research threaten the skill of future forecasts, as highlighted by former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean.Upcoming "super El Niño" conditions could amplify heat records and hurricane activity, increasing reliance on accurate forecasts.Future Outlook: Forecast Reliability and Policy ResponseAnalysts predict that unless the data cuts are reversed or mitigated, the reliability of federal weather forecasts will decline, especially for extreme events. While NOAA maintains that AI tools are an addition—not a replacement—to its existing model suite, the tension between budget constraints and the need for robust data persists. The agency is slated to release its 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook soon, which will test the resilience of current forecasting capabilities under reduced data conditions.

Anthropic’s Claude Mythos to be Presented to the Financial Stability BoardAnthropic will brief the Financial Stability Board (FSB), chaired by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, on the cyber‑defence implications of its Claude Mythos model, which has raised alarm among security experts.Mythos is not being released publicly; access is limited to select tech firms and banks such as Apple and JP Morgan.The briefing follows a report by the Financial Times and confirmation from a source familiar with the discussions.The FSB’s membership includes senior officials from the US, UK, Australia and China.Quantifying Mythos’ New Cyber‑Testing PerformanceThe UK’s AI Security Institute (AISI) noted a “notable capability jump” in the version shown to banks. In the “cooling tower” test, Mythos succeeded in 3 out of 10 attempts – a first for any model evaluated by AISI.Previous iterations had not completed the test.AISI reports that the length of autonomous cyber tasks has doubled within months.Implications for Global Financial CybersecurityThe briefing comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that AI‑driven cyber risks are rising for financial stability. Central bank leaders, including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, have already expressed heightened awareness of Mythos’ capabilities.Cyber risk does not respect borders; inconsistent oversight could weaken the interconnected financial system.Experts caution that most breaches still stem from traditional weaknesses such as weak authentication.What the Next Phase of AI‑Driven Cyber Risk May Look LikeAISI is developing tougher hacking tests to track AI progress, while the FSB is expected to issue recommendations for coordinated oversight among regulators. If the trend of rapid capability gains continues, financial institutions may need to embed AI‑specific cyber‑defence measures into their risk frameworks.Potential for tighter collaboration between AI developers and regulators.Increased scrutiny of AI models before deployment in critical infrastructure.

The Lead: US-Nigeria Joint Military Operation Against ISILThe United States military's Africa Command (AFRICOM) has conducted additional air strikes against ISIL (ISIS) fighters in northeastern Nigeria in coordination with the Nigerian government. These "additional kinetic" strikes, which took place on Sunday and were announced on Monday, represent the latest in a series of collaborative military operations between the two nations targeting terrorist groups in the region.The Event Details: Recent Strikes and Leadership DecapitationThe latest strikes occurred two days after both countries' presidents announced the killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as the second in command of ISIL. Al-Minuki was targeted "along with several of his lieutenants" in a strike on his compound in the Lake Chad Basin, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu confirmed on Saturday. US President Donald Trump first made the announcement in a social media post on Friday without disclosing specific details about the operation.Before pledging allegiance to ISIL in 2015, al-Minuki was a prominent Boko Haram leader, according to the Nigerian army. He oversaw key ISIL operations in the Sahel and West African regions for the ISIL affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP).The Strategic Context: Expanding US Military Presence in NigeriaThis latest wave of US-Nigeria coordinated attacks comes as dozens of US soldiers have been deployed to Nigeria in recent months to help fight against armed groups, engage in intelligence sharing, and provide technical support. Nigeria's Defence Headquarters spokesman Samaila Uba clarified that US soldiers will not play a direct combat role but will share technical expertise under the full command authority of Nigerian forces."The removal of these terrorists diminishes the group's capacity to plan attacks that threaten the safety and security of the US and our partners," AFRICOM stated in its announcement. "AFRICOM remains committed to leveraging specialized US capabilities in support of our partners to defeat shared security threats."The Regional Impact: Power Vacuum and Shifting AlliancesDennis Amachree, former director of the US Department of State Services in Nigeria, told Al Jazeera that the killing of al-Minuki "is going to create a huge vacuum in the leadership and financing of ISWAP as many top officers were decimated with him." This assessment suggests that the targeted strikes may have a more significant impact than initially apparent, potentially disrupting the operational capabilities of ISWAP in the region.The Nigerian government has previously rejected Trump's accusation of mass killings of Christians in the country, with analysts noting that people across all faiths, not just Christians, are victims of armed groups. This context highlights the complex nature of the security challenges in Nigeria and the broader Sahel region.The Future Outlook: Escalating Counterterrorism OperationsLast Christmas, US forces launched air strikes on ISIL-affiliated fighters in northwestern Nigeria. When asked if this was part of a broader military campaign, Trump told The New York Times: "I'd love to make it a one-time strike. But if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many-time strike." This statement suggests a potential escalation in US military involvement in the region, contingent on perceived threats.As the US continues to expand its counterterrorism operations in West Africa, the coordination with regional partners like Nigeria will be crucial. The success of these operations in degrading terrorist capabilities while maintaining local sovereignty will likely shape future security partnerships in the region.

The Lead Electric trucks are increasingly challenging diesel's dominance in Australia's transportation sector, with manufacturers demonstrating impressive capabilities while the country faces rising fuel costs and energy security concerns. The Electric Truck Performance Breakthrough Electric truck manufacturers like Windrose have conducted successful trials in Australia, including an extreme test pulling 68 tonnes up the notorious Mount Ousley escarpment from Port Kembla to Sydney. Bo Christensen, a fleet electrification specialist who followed the Windrose prime mover in last year's trial, noted: "It's a very tough run, but we were overtaking pretty much all the trucks going up the hill. We did it pretty comfortably." Windrose trucks claim a range of almost 700 kilometers and can be recharged from zero to 60% in about 35 minutes, with planned upgrades expected to improve these specifications in the next two years. The Financial Impact Analysis The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Israel war on Iran and conflicts over the Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route, have sent diesel prices soaring and highlighted Australia's reliance on imported fuel. In response, the Australian government announced a $10 billion fuel security package, including $3.2 billion to store a billion more liters of diesel and jet fuel. Meanwhile, Windrose has already sold 10 electric trucks in Australia at $450,000 each, with the company's founder Wen Han aiming to sell "hundreds" more this year and 20,000 by 2030 as part of a global target of 100,000 trucks. The Industry Transformation Australia's transportation landscape is experiencing a significant shift with multiple electric truck manufacturers entering the market. Research from Mov3ment shows Volvo, Sany, Daimler, Foton and Deepway are all selling in Australia, with 332 electric trucks and vans sold in Australia last year—triple the previous year. Major companies including Ikea, Woolworths, Australia Post, Coles, Coca-Cola and Temple & Webster have introduced electric trucks, partnering with logistics firms like Linfox, Toll and ANC. Zenobē is also deploying a new fleet of 30 trucks in Melbourne and Sydney for Winnings. The Future Outlook Despite the growing presence of electric trucks, Australia has "radically fallen behind" global adoption rates, with only 0.7% of new truck sales being electric compared with 20% in China, 7% in Germany and 2% in the UK. The Energy Futures Foundation estimates that up to 80% of Australia's truck fleet could be electrified with existing technology, with more than half of Australia's diesel trucks set to reach their usual replacement age in the next five years. Bruce Hardy, executive director of the Energy Futures Foundation, warns: "If we don't offer a meaningful pathway [to electric] then we lock-in diesel trucks for another 15 years."

The LeadThe New York Times has revealed that Israel constructed two covert military outposts in Iraq's western desert in advance of the US-Israel war on Iran. This revelation comes amid escalating tensions between the three nations and has significant implications for Middle East geopolitics.The Covert Military OperationsAccording to the report, Israeli forces had been preparing to establish one of the makeshift sites since late 2024. The bases were reportedly located in Iraq's western desert near the border with Saudi Arabia. One base was established shortly before the war began and operated with the knowledge of the United States, housing Israeli special forces and serving as a logistical hub for air operations, including search-and-rescue capabilities for downed pilots.Israeli forces reportedly launched attacks from the base against Iraqi units that came close to discovering the site in early March. Open-source analysts identified the suspected location using satellite imagery, confirming the presence of Israeli military infrastructure in Iraqi territory.Regional Responses and DenialsIraqi officials have publicly denied authorizing any foreign military presence in the area. Lieutenant-General Qais al-Muhammadawi, Iraq's deputy commander of joint operations, stated that authorities had received reports of 'individuals or movement' in the Najaf desert near Karbala, about 100km southwest of Baghdad.However, Baghdad reportedly privately lodged a protest with Washington in late March over suspected covert military activity, calling it a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Despite these reports, a senior Iraqi security official again denied that Israel had established a military base in the desert when speaking to Turkiye's Anadolu news agency.Geopolitical ImplicationsThe reports add to months of conflicting accounts over alleged Israeli activity inside Iraq and come as Iraq faces growing pressure amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran. Washington has repeatedly urged Baghdad to curb the influence of Iran-backed armed groups operating in Iraq.In March, US forces carried out strikes against the Popular Mobilisation Forces after attacks on a US diplomatic and logistics facility near Baghdad airport. Iran has also raised concerns over the allegations, with Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stating that Tehran would raise the issue with Iraqi authorities and accusing Israel of seeking to destabilize the region.Future OutlookThe revelation of Israeli military bases in Iraq further complicates an already volatile regional situation. As the conflict with Iran continues, the presence of foreign military forces in Iraq without Baghdad's authorization risks escalating tensions and destabilizing the region further.The international community, particularly the United States, faces increasing pressure to address these covert operations and their implications for regional stability. The situation highlights the complex web of alliances and conflicts that characterize Middle East politics and the challenges of maintaining sovereignty in the face of powerful external interests.

The Weekend's Football Action: Key Talking PointsThe latest round of Premier League matches and the FA Cup final provided plenty of talking points for football fans, from Manchester City's cup triumph to Liverpool's injury concerns and the ongoing VAR controversies that continue to divide opinion.Shaw's World Cup Hopes After Impressive SeasonLuke Shaw's first goal in over three years for Manchester United was a further reminder of the left-back's capabilities. This has been his best season at Old Trafford having featured in all 37 league games thus far, leaving his injury-prone past forgotten. Considering Shaw's experience and quality, he should be considered for a spot at the World Cup. Thomas Tuchel does not have a vast array of riches in the position and Shaw's consistency has been key to Michael Carrick's turnaround at Old Trafford. "He deserves to go," said Carrick after the win against Nottingham Forest. "His consistency, his performances, his experience, his qualities. He's an excellent full-back." Nico O'Reilly is the current first choice for England and he has a very different profile from Shaw, having converted from playing as a central midfielder under Pep Guardiola. Tuchel may want to take Shaw to provide variety and reliability, which would be a sensible approach.VAR Controversy Continues to Plague the GameAnother weekend of football brought another VAR controversy, this time at Old Trafford. Let's get this out of the way, it was handball. In a game with more on the line this latest VAR aberration would be hoisted up by abolitionists as another egregious example of why football is no better for the involvement of Stockley Park. "I think we need to have a meeting together to understand when it is a handball," said a measured Vítor Pereira post-match. We need a meeting to understand what good process is. Accidental handball was the final ruling; not sure that matters when it leads to a goal, but whatever. From the original incorrect decision to award the goal, it took the VAR three minutes to look at the ball clearly striking Bryan Mbeumo's hand, then another 60 seconds for the referee, Michael Salisbury, to go over to the screen and look at it again, only to ignore the referral and decide he was right the first time. That is far too long to make the wrong call. Pereira neatly summed it up with another damning understatement: "A lot of the time we don't understand the decisions."West Ham's Fight Against RelegationWhile it was hard to argue with Nuno Espírito Santo's assessment that West Ham had "a bad performance and a bad day" at St James' Park, his team are not Championship-bound just yet. Tottenham only need a point against Chelsea on Tuesday to effectively ensure their survival owing to their far superior goal difference, but they last took a point at Stamford Bridge four years ago. Their record against Chelsea is not reassuring: they have lost their past five meetings on the bounce by an aggregate scoreline of 12-4, with eight defeats from their last 10. Chelsea's players will have the added motivation of auditioning for the newly appointed Xabi Alonso, not that they need another reason to make their opponents' lives miserable. It could still easily come down to the final day, when Spurs face another difficult fixture against Everton. Nuno can only grit his teeth, hope Chelsea do his side a favour and, assuming Spurs's horrible run in west London continues, rally his troops for a desperate last stand against Leeds.Liverpool's Injury Woes ContinueAston Villa's season high represented another sobering low for Liverpool. Arne Slot's side failed to hurt Villa and were weak in defence, leaking two more goals at set pieces. Liverpool were without nine first-team players, including Alexander Isak, their £125m marquee signing who was not risked with a minor problem but could return against Brentford on the last day. Isak's season has been symptomatic of Liverpool's struggles. Is it just bad fortune or have Slot and his side simply underperformed? The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. "I don't think it could come to anyone as a surprise that if you miss your pre-season and then break your leg that minor injuries can occur if you then start into Premier League games in that intensity," Slot said. "Just a bit of bad luck for him that in a moment of time he comes back, then Hugo [Ekitiké] gets injured and we need him more."Guardiola's Warning Against ComplacencyAfter Saturday's FA Cup triumph over Chelsea, the 17th major trophy of Pep Guardiola's decade leading Manchester City, he reminded his players to never be complacent. "The most important thing is that [winning] trophies is good. Know what it takes to compete and win but don't take it for granted," the City manager said. "You start to believe that you are special, you will not win the FA Cup. Special we are not. The moment that we think [that], we will not be in these places. That is one of the things that through the years, we were OK with: knowing how difficult it is to win."Chelsea's Wembley Woes ContinueChelsea's dressing room and boardroom have been in a constant state of flux since Todd Boehly's BlueCo bought the club in 2022, but one thing has remained the same: they have a dire recent record in cup finals at Wembley. In the first decade after the stadium reopened in 2007, Chelsea won five of their six cup finals under the arch. Saturday's 1-0 defeat to Manchester City was their eighth loss in nine finals since 2017. Scoring goals at Wembley has also proven hard going, particularly since the departure of Didier Drogba (five goals in his five Wembley cup final starts). Christian Pulisic was the last Chelsea player to score in a domestic cup final, against Arsenal in front of empty stands in 2020. That's five finals in a row without a goal. It is a dry spell that can be tied to a young squad's relative lack of experience, but that argument does not stand up if you take into account the seven goals fired in against Paris Saint-Germain and Real Betis in the Club World Cup and Conference League finals just last year. Xabi Alonso is unlikely to have European football to play with next season, putting even more emphasis on Chelsea ending their Wembley drought and filling their silverware quota in domestic competitions.What's Next in the Premier League RaceWith the season drawing to a close, several key fixtures remain that could determine the final standings. Tottenham's survival hopes hinge on their match against Chelsea, while Liverpool will be hoping to end their injury-hit season on a positive note against Brentford. Manchester City, meanwhile, will be looking to build on their cup success as they continue their pursuit of more silverware in the final weeks of the season.

The Resurgence of ISWAP and Boko Haram The killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of ISIL (ISIS), by United States and Nigerian forces marks a notable achievement for counterterrorism. Yet for analysts observing the Lake Chad Basin, it highlights how persistent and complex insecurity in the region has become. Borders, Weak Governance, and Violence Spike Al-Minuki, a Nigerian national from Borno State, was operating out of a compound near Lake Chad, at the centre of one of the world’s most active armed group theatres. His choice of northeastern Nigeria as a base underscores the conditions driving a renewed surge of violence by both the ISIL affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP) and its rival, Jama’at Ahl al-Sunna li al-Da’wa wa al-Jihad (JAS), more widely known as Boko Haram. The Data Analysis 2.9 million internally displaced people in the region, including 2.3 million in Nigeria. 1,827 schools across the Lake Chad Basin have been closed due to violence. Humanitarian actors received just 19 percent of the funding required for 2025. The Impact Analysis Perhaps equally significant is the parallel resurgence of Boko Haram, which quietly rebuilt itself while security agencies primarily focused on the more dominant ISWAP. “While regional forces focused on countering ISWAP’s threats, partly due to the group’s advanced drone capabilities, Boko Haram appears to have taken advantage of the relative attention on its rival to regroup,” Nimi Princewill, a security expert in the Sahel, told Al Jazeera. The Prediction “ISWAP and Boko Haram’s recent resurgence reflects not simply a military setback, but a deepening governance vacuum across the Lake Chad Basin,” Abiola Sadiq, a security consultant, told Al Jazeera. “With Nigeria’s 2027 general elections approaching, these groups are highly likely to intensify their operations, potentially extending attacks beyond their traditional strongholds in the Lake Chad Basin and northeastern Nigeria,” said Sadiq.

Iran's Defence Training Initiative Iranian civilians are receiving defence training, according to reports from Al Jazeera. The training is aimed at enhancing the defensive capabilities of ordinary citizens. The Training Program The specifics of the training program are not detailed, but it is believed to include instruction in self-defence, emergency response, and possibly military tactics. Regional Implications This development could have significant implications for regional security, potentially altering the balance of power in the area. International Reactions The international community is likely to closely monitor this situation, given the potential for increased tensions. Future Outlook The future of Iran's defence training initiative and its impact on regional dynamics remains to be seen.