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More drilling in the North Sea will not enhance the UK’s energy security, a group of former senior military leaders told The Guardian on Monday, as the Conservative Party’s energy minister Kemi Badenoch launched a campaign to revive offshore oil and gas licences. The veterans, including retired Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, a climate‑security professor at University College London, warned that extracting the remaining hydrocarbons “is not the answer” to the country’s rising energy costs and geopolitical vulnerability. Morisetti emphasized that global market forces, not domestic production, set fuel prices and that reliance on imports leaves the UK exposed to “structural chokepoints” such as the Strait of Hormuz or insurance withdrawals. He urged the government to focus on a rapid transition to a diversified mix of wind, solar, tidal and nuclear power, alongside a major renewal of the electricity grid and expanded storage capacity. A recent E3G think‑tank report supports this view, stating that “structural chokepoints” in oil and gas supply chains mean that increasing fossil‑fuel output anywhere does not improve national security. The report highlights that reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons through electrification, efficiency, and domestic clean energy offers the most durable protection against supply shocks. Maria Pastukhova, senior policy adviser at E3G, explained that while clean‑energy systems are not immune to disruptions, they shift control “under domestic ownership,” lowering exposure to geopolitical and market volatility. Data cited by the report show that the North Sea is a “mature basin” whose output has fallen 75 % since its peak. New licences granted between 2010 and 2024 have produced only 36 days of gas, according to research by the Uplift campaign and consultancy Voar, underscoring the limited impact of further drilling. Retired Lt Gen Richard Nugee compared the UK’s situation to recent developments in Spain, where electricity prices are increasingly set by renewables rather than fossil fuels, reducing dependence on vulnerable chokepoints. He argued that “going for renewables gives greater independence, greater sovereignty, less vulnerability to attack and more opportunity,” contrasting it with the finite and externally‑controlled nature of gas supplies. Experts such as Khem Rogaly of the Transition Security Project warn that reliance on “expensive and volatile fossil fuels” makes British households vulnerable to shocks from global conflicts, including US‑led oil wars. James Meadway, director of the Verdant think‑tank, added that the war in Iran has revealed the fragility of large, centralized power systems to both kinetic attacks and cyber‑threats, reinforcing the case for a more distributed energy architecture. In sum, the former military leaders and independent analysts concur that the only credible route to lasting UK energy security lies in **accelerating renewable deployment, improving efficiency, and modernising the grid**, rather than expanding North Sea drilling.

China's economy is heavily reliant on oil refining, particularly in Shandong province, where independent 'teapot' refineries play a crucial role. These small refineries, often operating on thin margins, have been vital in keeping China's economy stable amidst the global energy crisis. The crisis began with US-Israel strikes on Iran, causing chaos in the Middle East and prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas flows. However, Iranian oil has continued to flow to China, with imports reaching about 1.6 million barrels per day. China's teapot refineries are now facing significant challenges due to rising crude prices. Iranian light crude, which was previously $11 cheaper than Brent crude, now has a discount as low as $2 per barrel. This has reduced the refineries' profits, with some workers fearing salary cuts. The impact is being felt across the industry, with Luqing Petrochemical, one of Shandong's prominent teapots, allegedly sanctioned by the US for buying Iranian oil. The company has started pressuring employees to quit by cutting salaries and relocating them to difficult work sites. The economic shock is also affecting ordinary people in China, with the government intervening in the retail fuel market to reduce a planned increase in petrol and diesel prices. However, if prices continue to rise, some teapot refineries may go bust. The long-term threat to the industry is not just the war but also the rise of electric vehicles, according to Uncle Wang, a petrol station owner in Weifang. As China transitions to cleaner energy sources, the demand for oil is expected to decline, posing a significant challenge to the teapot refineries and the thousands of people they employ.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will lead to higher prices and slower global growth, affecting countries worldwide. The Washington-based organisation emphasised that a rise in energy and food costs will harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy.The IMF's analysis, published in a blogpost by its main department heads, including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that governments with high levels of borrowing will have limited access to funds to cushion the worst effects of the crisis. The organisation warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth should the conflict continue to disrupt the supply of oil, gas, and fertiliser from the Gulf.While some countries, such as the US, may gain from higher fossil fuel prices as net exporters of oil and gas, the rise in bills for petrol, diesel, and food will harm living standards. Businesses are also forecast to come under pressure to raise prices, possibly forcing central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation.The IMF highlighted that about a third of fertiliser production travels through the strait of Hormuz, which could push up prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the UK since last December to about £140 a therm, while a barrel of Brent crude that cost about $60 before the conflict hit more than $116 on Monday before falling back to $112.The IMF added that forecasts for sharp rises in the cost of gas and electricity in Europe next winter are forcing governments to consider higher subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. The organisation noted that countries such as Italy and the UK are especially exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain are relatively protected by their greater nuclear and renewables capacity.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, have recently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This move has analysts warning of a potential new front in the war, particularly with the group's ability to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a crucial passage for global commodities trade.The strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for 10% of global trade, including a significant share of oil and gas shipments. Blocking this strait could have severe implications for the global economy, potentially disrupting trade and leading to increased inflation.Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced the group's first attack on Israel, followed by a second military operation using cruise missiles and drones. The Houthis have warned they will continue military operations until Israel ceases its aggression.The group's actions are seen as a significant development in the conflict, with Iran likely to welcome the Houthis' involvement. However, the extent of their participation remains uncertain, with some analysts describing their actions as token participation rather than full engagement.If the Houthis were to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, it would create a nightmare scenario for global trade, particularly for Europe. This move, combined with potential restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, could cripple trade and have far-reaching economic consequences.Analysts suggest that the Houthis' current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness. Their decision to target Israel directly, rather than escalating in the Red Sea, indicates a strategic approach aligned with Tehran's broader strategy.For now, the Houthis' threat to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait remains a significant concern, with global trade and economies potentially hanging in the balance.

Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, has become a hub for diplomatic activity as key regional powers converge to address the escalating conflict between the US and Iran. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud have arrived for talks with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. The meetings aim to bring an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has entered its 30th day and caused a global energy crisis. The conflict has led to a significant increase in tensions in the Middle East, with 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been choked by Iran. Pakistan is walking a diplomatic tightrope, with close defense ties to Saudi Arabia and cultural ties to Iran. The country is also home to the second-largest Shia population in the world after Iran. Analysts describe Pakistan's role as a 'very delicate balancing act' as it tries to bring the Americans and Iranians back to the negotiating table. The diplomatic push is driven by severe economic fears, with millions of Pakistani citizens potentially losing their jobs in the Gulf region if the conflict spreads. The stakes are existential for Islamabad, which risks a major crisis if energy supplies decline. Experts point out that the enormous economic costs borne by the Gulf countries have dropped drastically due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian drone and missile attacks have targeted energy and industrial facilities, forcing petroleum companies to declare force majeure on supply contracts. The Islamabad gathering serves as a foundational step for an 'Islamic alliance' designed to counter the Israeli project in the region, address geopolitical vacuums, and mitigate uncertainties surrounding future US involvement.

Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor, is set to warn G7 nations that they must move faster on clean energy to insulate economies against global price shocks from oil and gas. This comes as she and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband meet with G7 finance and energy ministers.Reeves will emphasize that long-term energy security from renewables and nuclear is the only way to prevent future crises, in a rebuke to the Conservatives and Reform who have urged her to end the ban on new oil and gas licenses.“As we move faster on renewables and nuclear, our partners in the G7 must do the same – because staying stuck on the rollercoaster of global oil and gas prices will help nobody,” Reeves stated.Reeves will argue that the G7 nations should not “shift pressure on to partners or weaken collective resilience” – a veiled warning about easing sanctions on Russian energy or on new trade barriers.The UK government plans to implement the Fingleton review this year to speed up the delivery of new nuclear power.Reeves rejected calls from the Conservatives to issue new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea, stating they would not insulate the UK from further energy shocks or bring down UK consumers’ bills.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil exports, has seen its traffic plunge by over 95 percent since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This disruption has led to a significant increase in pressure on oil and gas markets, with 20 percent of the world's oil and gas typically passing through the strait.To mitigate the impact of the strait's closure, countries in the Middle East are turning to alternative routes for energy exports. Three major pipelines in the region are being explored as potential solutions:Saudi Arabia's East-West PipelineThe East-West Pipeline, also known as the Petroline, is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. With a capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. However, it currently only has the capacity to supply 5 million bpd for exports.UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil PipelineThe Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the ADCOP or Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, has a capacity of 1.5 million bpd. Oil exports from Fujairah have risen in the past month, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared to 1.17 million bpd in February.Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil PipelineThe Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, has a capacity of 1.6 million bpd but currently only carries around 200,000 bpd. Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only around 9 million bpd, compared to 20 million bpd for the strait. Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict.

The Gulf economies play a significant role in the global economy, with major oil and gas reserves contributing to their substantial influence. As key players in the energy sector, these nations have a considerable impact on global energy markets and economic trends.Their strategic locations also make them crucial hubs for international trade and investment, connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. The Gulf economies' diverse sectors, including finance, tourism, and technology, further enhance their global importance.Understanding the Gulf economies' role in the world economy is essential for grasping global economic dynamics and anticipating future trends.