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The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, the world could face a food ‘catastrophe’. The disruption is already halting shipments of vital agricultural inputs, a situation that could quickly cascade into higher food prices. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told Al Jazeera that, for now, food prices have stayed stable because existing stockpiles are absorbing the shock. However, he cautioned that this buffer is temporary and that “the clock is ticking.” FAO agrifood economics director David Laborde added that if traffic does not resume, the resulting strain on energy and fertilizer markets will translate into “higher commodity and retail prices later this year and into 2027.” According to the FAO, 20‑45% of key agrifood inputs—including fertilizers, pesticides and feed—depend on maritime passage through the Hormuz chokepoint. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used fertilizer, also moves through the strait, making global agriculture highly vulnerable. Recent gas supply disruptions have already forced fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond to cut or halt production, raising concerns that farmers may have to reduce fertilizer use or face higher production costs. Torero emphasized that poorer countries are especially at risk because planting calendars leave little room for delays; a slowdown in input delivery could quickly lead to “lower output, higher inflation and slower global growth.” The blockade stems from Iran’s decision to bring traffic to a near‑total halt in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel, which launched a war on Tehran on 28 February, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The conflict has already doubled oil and gas prices compared with pre‑war levels. Negotiations between Iranian and US representatives over a 21‑hour marathon failed to secure a permanent ceasefire. Subsequently, US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade, stating that the navy would interdict ships in international waters that had paid Iran a toll to traverse the strait. The US military later declared it would block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, including those in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. FAO officials stress that decisive action—both a sustained ceasefire and the reopening of the waterway—is essential to prevent the looming food crisis from becoming a full‑blown catastrophe.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that a further escalation in the Iran war could lead to a global recession, spiralling inflation, and a sharp backlash in financial markets. The Washington-based fund cited the economic damage from the Middle East conflict as steadily rising, prompting it to cut its growth forecasts for 2026.In its half-yearly update, the IMF predicted that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year. Even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026, the fund warned of a close call for a global recession under a worst-case 'severe scenario'.This severe scenario, involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, would see the world face a global recession for only the fifth time since 1980. Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that despite a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and downside risks remain elevated.The IMF set out three possible scenarios for the war in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), including a central 'reference forecast' based on the assumption that disruption to the world economy from the war fades by mid-2026. This forecast predicts global growth would fall from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points.Under the adverse scenario, with the global oil price remaining at $100 this year before falling back to $75 in 2027, growth would fall to 2.5% this year, and inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the severe scenario, with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027, global growth would collapse to about 2%, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession.The IMF urged countries to stage a coordinated response to the economic fallout from the war and called on central banks to remain vigilant. It also advised governments to focus on temporary and targeted measures to support businesses and households.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has taken a turn for the worse, with President Trump's decision to escalate rather than negotiate turning this into a global problem. Europe, which had initially adopted a stance of non-involvement, is now facing the consequences of Trump's actions. The US naval blockade of Iran aims to prevent the country from shipping oil to market unless it allows free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this move has caused oil prices to rise and stocks to fall, with the global economy feeling the pinch. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington has turned into a crisis summit, with global growth forecasts being revised down due to the expected prolonged energy shock. The conflict has also raised concerns about shortages of essential goods such as medicines, fertilizers, and helium, which could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. The article suggests that Trump's threats to stop tankers reaching Iranian ports and seize any ship paying Iran a toll for safe passage risk spiraling the war out of control. In this context, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's suggestion that Europe should help the US get out of the mess it has created has some merit. The article argues that Europe needs to find a way to help Trump retreat without losing face, and that diplomacy and negotiation are crucial to resolving the crisis. The article concludes that Trump's war aims are unpredictable and that the US needs NATO's diplomats and ideas to resolve the crisis, rather than just brute force. Europe must find a way to work with the US to end the conflict and prevent further economic damage.

The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the US‑Israel war on Iran could ignite a new wave of global inflation, jeopardising the outlook for world growth even if the current cease‑fire endures. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced on Thursday that the Fund will lower its growth projection for the global economy at next week’s IMF‑World Bank Spring Meetings, stating that the conflict has turned a potential upgrade into a growth downgrade. Earlier this year the IMF had lifted its forecast to 3.3 % growth for the 191‑member economies. That optimism evaporated after the war erupted on 28 February, driving up oil and natural‑gas prices, damaging energy infrastructure such as refineries and tanker terminals, and disrupting fertilizer shipments essential for global agriculture. Georgieva warned that the conflict is eroding business and consumer confidence and urged member nations to “get your house in order” as heightened defence spending adds further strain to the world economy. She also expressed confidence that the IMF will secure U.S. congressional approval this year for a 50 % increase in quota‑based lending resources, unlocking more of its roughly $1 trillion lending capacity. The United States, the Fund’s largest shareholder, would thereby provide crucial financial reassurance amid uncertain future developments. In a newly released report, the IMF estimated that countries directly involved in armed conflict typically see output fall by about 3 % at the outset, accumulating to roughly 7 % losses over five years. However, the study noted that economies like the United States may avoid severe economic damage because the fighting does not physically affect their own territory. Central banks are also on alert. Georgieva emphasized that “the central bank cannot afford to let inflation spiral out of control,” a statement that precedes the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two‑day policy meeting scheduled for 28–29 April, where interest‑rate decisions will be made amid political pressure from President Trump to lower rates. Other monetary authorities, including the Bank of Mexico, warned that the Middle‑East turmoil could push inflation higher in Latin America’s second‑largest economy, underscoring the broader spill‑over risks of the conflict.

In a stark address delivered as the cease‑fire in the Iran conflict teetered, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, slowing growth beyond the IMF’s original projections for 2026. Georgieva noted that, had the hostilities not erupted six weeks ago, the Fund would have been poised to raise its 2026 growth outlook. Instead, even the most optimistic scenario now entails a downgrade, and a swift return to pre‑war conditions appears unlikely. The uncertainty surrounding the cease‑fire—exacerbated by divergent positions of Washington and Tehran—has already pushed oil prices higher, reflecting fears of continued disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for world energy supplies. According to the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook, the conflict’s “scarring effects” will translate into lower living standards worldwide. The Fund had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a modest slowdown from 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a tech‑driven investment surge. Georgieva emphasized that the war arrived when the economy was riding “considerable momentum” from technology investment and supportive financial markets. She outlined the mechanisms of damage: damaged infrastructure, supply‑chain interruptions, eroded confidence, and prolonged uncertainty over oil and gas production in the region. These factors will depress growth regardless of whether a peace agreement is ultimately reached. Georgieva highlighted that the most vulnerable will be net oil‑importing nations, poorer economies and small island states, which stand to feel the brunt of higher energy costs and reduced trade flows. She urged governments to avoid unilateral measures such as export bans or price controls, warning that such actions could "pour gasoline on the fire" and further destabilise markets. With many countries already carrying elevated debt levels and higher borrowing costs, the IMF chief called for targeted, temporary assistance to protect the most at‑risk households. She cautioned against broad tax cuts or blanket energy subsidies, which could stoke inflation and strain fragile public finances. Central banks, she added, should keep policy rates steady while remaining ready to act against inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also chairs the Financial Stability Board, echoed the IMF’s concerns, describing the conflict as a "very big shock" that has heightened market volatility. He stressed that the situation remains fluid and that policymakers must stay vigilant. Overall, the IMF’s message is clear: the Iran war will reshape the global growth trajectory for the foreseeable future, and coordinated, prudent policy responses are essential to mitigate its lasting impact.

Oil prices have skyrocketed to more than $110 a barrel following Donald Trump's threat of military action against Iran. The international benchmark for oil prices, Brent crude, rose by 1% to $111 a barrel, while New York light crude jumped 2.6% to $115.3 a barrel. Investors are growing increasingly anxious as Trump escalates his threats against Iran, demanding it reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of any deal to stop the war. The president set a deadline of Tuesday 8pm ET (1am BST Wednesday) for Iran to agree to a deal with Washington or face fresh attacks on civil infrastructure, including power plants. “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said. He emphasized that passage through the Strait – a vital shipping channel through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies normally pass – was a “very big priority” and should be part of any ceasefire deal. Global stock markets have been choppy since the US-Israel attack on Iran in February, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has fed fears around inflation and rattled investor confidence. On Monday, Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the war is likely to lead to higher inflation and slower global growth. Georgieva told Reuters that before the war began, the IMF had expected a small upgrade in its expectation for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Instead, she said, “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth”. The IMF is expected to publish its report on the world economic outlook next week.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will lead to higher prices and slower global growth, affecting countries worldwide. The Washington-based organisation emphasised that a rise in energy and food costs will harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy.The IMF's analysis, published in a blogpost by its main department heads, including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that governments with high levels of borrowing will have limited access to funds to cushion the worst effects of the crisis. The organisation warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth should the conflict continue to disrupt the supply of oil, gas, and fertiliser from the Gulf.While some countries, such as the US, may gain from higher fossil fuel prices as net exporters of oil and gas, the rise in bills for petrol, diesel, and food will harm living standards. Businesses are also forecast to come under pressure to raise prices, possibly forcing central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation.The IMF highlighted that about a third of fertiliser production travels through the strait of Hormuz, which could push up prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the UK since last December to about £140 a therm, while a barrel of Brent crude that cost about $60 before the conflict hit more than $116 on Monday before falling back to $112.The IMF added that forecasts for sharp rises in the cost of gas and electricity in Europe next winter are forcing governments to consider higher subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. The organisation noted that countries such as Italy and the UK are especially exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain are relatively protected by their greater nuclear and renewables capacity.

Fears of economic strain are mounting across Europe as the United States-Israel conflict with Iran approaches its one-month anniversary. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has described the situation as an economic 'catastrophe' for global economies, with impacts already becoming evident.Speaking during a meeting with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Pistorius emphasized Germany's willingness to contribute to peace efforts. He stated that Germany is 'ready to secure any peace' and would discuss operations to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz if a ceasefire were implemented.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has further exacerbated concerns by revising global growth projections. The international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to just 0.7 percent, while downgrading the eurozone by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, the US received a 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its growth forecast.Addressing reporters in Canberra, Pistorius criticized the lack of consultation with Germany before the commencement of hostilities. 'Nobody asked us before. It's not our war, and therefore we don't want to get sucked into that war,' he stated, adding that there is no clear strategy, objective, or exit plan from the conflict.The economic repercussions are particularly severe in energy markets. Natural gas prices in the European Union have surged by more than 30 percent since the conflict began, with prices spiking following Israel's attack on Iran's critical South Pars gasfield and subsequent Iranian retaliation against Qatar's Ras Laffan facility.European leaders are increasingly vocal about the economic dangers. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen has called for negotiations with Iran and an end to hostilities, while urging member states to accelerate preparations for meeting winter gas storage targets. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has described the situation as 'far worse' than the 2003 Iraq invasion, warning of broader and deeper potential impacts.The economic consequences extend beyond Europe, with the OECD noting that the global economy, previously on a path toward growth, has now veered from that trajectory. Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices are expected to keep growth subdued in the United Kingdom, though somewhat mitigated by lower policy rates anticipated for the following year.