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The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

At a Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that Iran’s request for a temporary cease‑fire was a direct result of the United States’ intensive air campaign, which he described as having reduced Iran’s weapons factories to rubble and rendered its military ineffective for years to come. Hegseth, standing beside Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine, said the final wave of strikes before President Donald Trump announced a two‑week pause had completely destroyed Iran’s defense industrial base. While Iran can still fire from existing stockpiles, it can no longer replace lost munitions, according to the secretary. President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to suspend hostilities less than two hours before his self‑imposed deadline to “decimate the entirety of Iranian civilization.” The decision followed a last‑minute diplomatic push by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Gen Asim Munir. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran’s acceptance of the pause, and the country’s supreme national security council announced it would send a delegation to Islamabad for formal talks starting Friday. Both sides claimed victory: Iran’s security council said it had achieved “nearly all the objectives of the war,” while the United States highlighted the crippling of Iran’s military capabilities. The cease‑fire ends a conflict that began on 28 February, when the U.S. and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes in a 12‑hour window against Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership. The opening day saw the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei named successor on 8 March. Hegseth warned that the United States had prepared additional strikes on Iran’s power plants, bridges and energy infrastructure—targets he said Iran could not defend or rebuild for decades—if Tehran had refused the pause. According to Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine, 13 U.S. service members were killed during the fighting. Total casualties across the region exceed 5,000, including over 1,600 Iranian civilians and at least 1,497 deaths in Lebanon. By the sixth day of the war, U.S. military spending had reached roughly $12.7 billion, with a pending supplemental request of $200 billion before Congress. The future of a lasting settlement remains uncertain. Trump later announced that Iran would hand over its enriched uranium and cease all enrichment activities, while Iran’s supreme national security council released a 10‑point counter‑proposal that explicitly demands the right to continue enrichment. Disagreements also persist over the cease‑fire’s scope. Israel maintains that the pause does not apply to Lebanon, where ground and air campaigns are at their most intense since Israel’s northern invasion. Both Pakistan and Iran, however, have stated that Lebanon is included in the cease‑fire. Subsequent reports indicated Iranian missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, as well as strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure on Lavan Island. Iran’s supreme national security council warned that its forces remain on high alert, stating, “our hands are on the trigger, and any mistake by the enemy will be met with full force.” When asked about the long‑term U.S. presence in the region, Hegseth replied unequivocally: “We’re not going anywhere.”

Ukraine's military has launched a significant drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, targeting the port of Novorossiysk. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, the overnight attack hit the Admiral Makarov missile carrier in the port, which serves as Russia's largest oil exporting outlet on the Black Sea.The attack is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy exports and reduce Moscow's revenues. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, aiming to halt Russian oil exports and impact the Russian economy.Russian authorities reported that at least eight people, including two children, were injured in Novorossiysk. Videos posted on Telegram showed a fire at one of the oil port's docks. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko stated that debris from drones had fallen on two locations in the city, including a residential area.Russia's military claimed that air defense units had downed 148 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, located in the Novorossiysk port area, exports oil from Kazakhstan and has major US oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, as shareholders.The attack on Novorossiysk comes amid a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. On the previous day, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. These attacks are part of Ukraine's efforts to reduce Moscow's revenues from oil sales, which are crucial for the Russian economy.In response to the attacks, Russia's Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting the CPC terminal to inflict economic damage on its largest shareholders, including US and Kazakh energy companies.

The global oil trade is facing a chokepoint crisis, with Libya's oil disputes mirroring the situation in the Hormuz Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transportation, was briefly closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, causing Brent crude oil prices to soar to nearly $120 a barrel.Libya, with its strategically located oil terminals on the northeastern coast, has become a crucial player in the global oil trade. The country's light, sweet grades of oil are particularly valuable to European refiners. However, Libya's political instability and factional oil deals are threatening to disrupt oil supplies, with Europe's energy security hanging in the balance.The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, controls the territory where Libya's oil is located, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli signs oil contracts. This has led to a situation where Tripoli may sign oil contracts, but Haftar decides whether oil actually flows. The Arkenu agreement, a private oil company linked to the Haftar family, was recently terminated due to corruption allegations, leaving the future of Libya's oil supplies uncertain.The US is attempting to broker new talks between Tripoli and Haftar's camp, but a deal is not yet certain. Meanwhile, European energy security is at risk, with the Mediterranean Sea becoming a battleground for proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The sabotage of oil infrastructure and attacks on tankers are exacerbating the situation, highlighting the need for a stable and secure oil supply to Europe.

Ukrainian drones have launched targeted strikes on key Russian oil infrastructure, hitting the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in the central Nizhny Novgorod region. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, these overnight attacks were confirmed by Russian officials on Sunday.In Primorsk, which serves as one of Russia's main oil exporting outlets, Governor Alexander Drozdenko of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region reported that a pipeline was damaged. He later updated that a fuel reservoir in the port area leaked when it was hit by shrapnel.The NORSI oil refinery, Russia's fourth largest, was also targeted. Governor Gleb Nikitin of Nizhny Novgorod stated that a fire broke out at the plant after two facilities were hit. The attack also resulted in damage to a power station and several houses, although there were no reported injuries.These strikes are part of Ukraine's strategy to disrupt Russia's oil infrastructure and reduce a key source of revenue funding Moscow's war efforts. At one point last month, about 40 percent of Russia's oil exporting capabilities were shut down due to these attacks and other disruptions.Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have stalled, with high-level talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine yielding no progress on critical issues like territorial concessions in eastern Ukraine.

Iranian drones have launched a series of attacks on Kuwait's oil infrastructure, resulting in severe material damage and posing a significant threat to oil supplies that are already strained due to the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.The drone strikes, which took place on Sunday, happened just hours before members of the Opec+ group of major global oil suppliers convened to discuss strategies for increasing output, despite Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran claimed responsibility for the attacks, stating that they had targeted petrochemical plants in Kuwait, as well as in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported damage and fires at its subsidiaries, including at the Shuwaikh oil sector complex, which houses the oil ministry and KPC headquarters.The attacks on Kuwait's oil infrastructure are part of a broader escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with Iranian drones also reportedly striking an office complex for Kuwaiti government ministries and two power and water desalination plants.The conflict has led to the largest disruption to oil supplies in history, with the price of Brent crude surging more than 50% since the start of the year to a peak of $119.50 a barrel in March. It is currently trading at about $109 a barrel.The disruptions have had a significant impact on energy costs for consumers, with the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol in the UK reaching 154.45p on Sunday, and the average US fuel price passing $4 a gallon for the first time in four years.Opec+ members have agreed in principle to raise output by 206,000 barrels a day in May, but the agreement remains largely symbolic while Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade artery through which about 20% of the world's total crude oil passes.