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Trump Halts Military Action Amidst High-Stakes DiplomacyUnited States President Donald Trump has announced a significant reversal in his administration's approach to the conflict with Iran, postponing a 'scheduled attack' at the request of key regional leaders. The decision comes as the administration attempts to pivot from military posturing to diplomatic engagement, though the underlying threat of force remains palpable.The Strategic Reversal and Regional MediationThe postponement of military action was formally communicated to the military leadership, specifically instructing Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine to stand down. Trump credited the intervention of influential figures, including Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, for facilitating the change in strategy.Current Status: Attack on Iran is delayed.Military Posture: Forces remain on high alert for a 'full, large scale assault' if negotiations fail.Mediator: Pakistan is currently facilitating talks between the US and Iran.The Economic and Political Toll of the ConflictThe decision to pause the attack highlights the mounting economic and political costs of the ongoing war. Pentagon officials have estimated the cost of the conflict to be at least $29bn, a figure that analysts suggest could be significantly higher. Domestically, the war has become a political liability for the Republican Party as it approaches the November midterm elections.A recent poll from The New York Times revealed that 64% of US adults believe the decision to go to war with Iran was incorrect. This public sentiment, combined with the financial burden, has likely pressured the administration to seek a diplomatic resolution.Gulf States Prioritize Stability Over Nuclear Non-ProliferationWhile the US focuses on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, analysts suggest that Gulf allies have a different set of priorities. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum, noted that for Gulf states, the nuclear issue is not the primary concern.The core issues for regional leaders include the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the defense against Iran's missile program, which has launched thousands of missiles at Gulf countries. The intervention of these allies indicates that the US cannot pursue a military solution without their direct support, complicating the administration's strategic options.A Fragile Ceasefire with an Imminent Escalation RiskThe situation remains highly volatile. Despite the announcement of negotiations, Iran has maintained a defiant stance, with President Masoud Pezeshkian stating that dialogue will not mean surrender. The ceasefire established in April has been fragile, with both sides accusing the other of violations.Trump's latest message, posted on Truth Social, signals a 'carrot and stick' approach: offering a potential deal while keeping the military option on the table. As Pakistan's mediation faces limits and trust remains low, the window for a successful diplomatic resolution is narrowing, raising the risk of a sudden return to full-scale war.

The Lead Belarus and Russia have launched joint training exercises on nuclear weapons combat, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced on Monday. The exercise is a planned event and not directed at any specific third party, according to a statement quoted by the Interfax news agency. Joint Nuclear Drills The purpose of the exercise is to test readiness and carry out combat missions from unprepared areas throughout the country, the statement added. The drills come as Ukraine and its NATO allies have expressed concerns over a potential Russian attack from Belarus. Ukraine's Concerns and Response Ukraine has repeatedly accused Moscow of planning to launch a new attack from Belarus, either on its territory or one of its NATO allies, such as neighbouring Baltic states. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the move, saying it legitimizes the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide and sets a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes. Ukraine has urged its Western allies to tighten sanctions against Moscow and Minsk. Kyiv has warned Belarus against allowing itself to be drawn into Russia's war. Russian and Belarusian Relations Russian tactical nuclear weapons were stationed in Belarus after long-time ruler President Alexander Lukashenko requested their deployment. Belarus and its weak economy are heavily dependent on Moscow. Lukashenko has previously expressed hope that the warheads will provide greater security during the perceived threat from NATO. The Impact Analysis The joint exercises have been met with concern from Ukraine and its NATO allies, who fear that Russia may be planning to launch a new attack from Belarus. The move has also been seen as an attempt to inflame tensions in the region. The Prediction The situation is likely to remain tense in the region, with Ukraine and its NATO allies closely monitoring the situation. The international community may need to take further action to prevent a potential escalation of the conflict.

The Lead: Trump-Xi Summit Concludes with Claims of Resolved IssuesPresident Donald Trump wrapped up his state visit to China by meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Zhongnanhai leadership compound, claiming to have settled "a lot of different problems" that previous administrations couldn't resolve. The US president described the visit as "incredible" and emphasized the strength of his personal relationship with Xi, while highlighting what he called "fantastic trade deals" for both countries.The Event Details: Final Day of Diplomatic EngagementThe meeting marked the final day of Trump's summit in China, where the two leaders engaged in both formal discussions and private conversations. Trump specifically mentioned their agreement on Iran, stating both countries share similar views on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. "We want them to get it ended because it's a crazy thing there," Trump added regarding the Iranian situation.Following the approximately two-hour meeting, Trump was escorted to Beijing Airport by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, where a red carpet ceremony awaited. The departure was marked by dozens of schoolchildren waving both American and Chinese flags and chanting "farewell" in unison, symbolizing the carefully choreographed nature of diplomatic protocol.The Impact Analysis: Shifting Dynamics in US-China RelationsThis summit represents a significant moment in US-China relations, coming at a time of heightened trade tensions and geopolitical competition. Trump's emphasis on personal diplomacy and his claim to have resolved longstanding issues suggests a potential recalibration in how the two superpowers engage with each other. The public display of warmth between the leaders contrasts with the often-contentious relationship between their administrations, indicating a possible pragmatic approach to managing differences while seeking common ground.The focus on trade deals and Iran suggests both nations are prioritizing economic security and regional stability, potentially at the expense of addressing human rights concerns and broader geopolitical competition that have characterized recent years of US-China relations.The Prediction: Future Trajectory of Bilateral RelationsLooking ahead, the Trump-Xi summit may signal a period of pragmatic engagement where both countries prioritize economic cooperation and crisis management over ideological confrontation. However, the fundamental structural challenges in the relationship—including technological competition, security concerns in the Indo-Pacific, and differing political systems—remain unchanged. The coming months will reveal whether this apparent thaw represents a genuine shift toward more stable relations or merely a tactical pause in ongoing strategic competition.Trade relations, in particular, will be a key indicator of the summit's lasting impact, with implementation details of the "fantastic trade deals" Trump mentioned likely to face scrutiny from businesses, investors, and policymakers in both countries.

The Diplomatic Opening in BeijingOne day into US President Donald Trump's visit to China for trade talks, both he and Chinese President Xi Jinping have exchanged toasts at a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, and hailed their relationship as the world's most "consequential". On Thursday, following a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a 600-year-old landmark in the Chinese capital, Xi spoke of a "shared US-China future", while also warning that failure to handle this bond would create a "very dangerous situation"."We must make it work and never mess it up," he said.The Personal Diplomacy Between LeadersThe US president described his Chinese counterpart as "my friend" in his opening remarks at the state banquet that Xi hosted for the American leader. "We are going to have a fantastic future together. I have such respect for China, for the job you've done. You are a great leader," he told Xi.Trump also invited Xi and First Lady Peng Liyuan to pay a return visit to the White House on September 24. For his part, the Chinese president said he was "very happy" to meet Trump in Beijing at a time of "historic turbulence" when "the world stands at a new crossroads".Xi posed a series of questions to the US president: "Can we join hands to address global challenges and inject greater stability into the world? Can we uphold the wellbeing of our respective peoples and the shared future of humanity, working together to create a bright future for our bilateral relationship?"China's reception underscored how highly Xi regards this visit. Trump was welcomed at the Great Hall of the People, the seat of power in China, "the equivalent of the White House and all other important centres of power combined". Additionally, Vice President Han Zheng greeted Trump at the airport when he landed in Beijing on Wednesday, making him the highest-ranking Chinese official to ever welcome a US president.Strategic Framework for Bilateral RelationsXi and Trump agreed to frame their relationship as "constructive, strategic and stable" in a new positioning that is intended to guide US-China ties for the next three years and beyond, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement about talks between the two.Trump said the relationship between the two countries went back to the founding of the US, noting that the early American traders who visited China were described, by the Chinese, as "the new people". Today, he said, the two countries' bilateral ties were among "the most consequential" in the world.The Chinese president said the two countries should become partners, rather than rivals, adding that "mutual respect is key to stable China-US ties". "I have always believed that the common interests between China and the US outweigh the differences," Xi said. "Let 2026 be a historic and landmark year for Sino-US relations to carry on the past and open up the future."Trade and Economic NegotiationsTrump and Xi discussed trade, with Xi saying that China's door of opportunity will open wider. What this means is not explicitly clear yet, but Trump will be hoping it includes a Chinese pledge to buy US soya beans, beef and aircraft. Officials in the Trump administration also hope to move towards setting up a Board of Trade with China to manage commercial disputes between the two countries.Xi also met with US business leaders who have accompanied Trump on this trip on Thursday. The US and China entered a tariff threat standoff last year, with each side imposing retaliatory tariffs on each other's exports. China also restricted exports of some rare-earth metals, which are crucial for technology manufacturing, in April. Later in the year, it announced plans to restrict several others. Those later plans are on pause since a truce was agreed between the two presidents in October last year on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea.In return for China's agreement to pause restrictions on rare-earth metal exports, Trump dropped a threat of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods.The Taiwan ChallengeThe Taiwanese government maintains that the self-governing island of 23 million people is a sovereign state. During the meeting on Thursday, Xi reportedly warned Trump that the issue of Taiwan – which China regards as its own territory – could lead to conflict between Washington and Beijing if it is not handled carefully.However, Taiwan was not mentioned in a joint statement following the meeting, and Trump notably ignored a question from reporters about his stance on Taiwan. This is a tricky issue for the US. While the US government officially acknowledges that China views Taiwan as part of its territory, it does not explicitly state whether or not it agrees with that stance.The US formally severed official diplomatic ties with Taiwan – also known as the Republic of China – decades ago, but remains committed under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to supporting the defence of the self-governing democracy. That law has enabled Washington to supply Taiwan with billions of dollars' worth of weapons and to deepen cooperation in areas such as military training and intelligence sharing, moves Beijing regards as meddling in its internal affairs.Xi has told Trump that the "Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations", Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted on X on Thursday. "If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy," she wrote.Taiwan's Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that China is "currently the sole risk to regional peace and stability", after Xi warned Trump. "Beijing has no right to make any claims on behalf of Taiwan internationally," the statement added.Global Security CooperationThe US-Israel war on Iran, which entered its 76th day on Thursday, also came up in the meeting between Trump and Xi. In their joint statement, Trump and Xi agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and Iran should never have nuclear weapons.US officials have previously said that they might need China's help in convincing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts say Beijing will want concessions from the US, likely regarding Taiwan, in exchange for any aid in resolving the crisis.Future Outlook for US-China RelationsTrump and Xi may meet again on at least two other occasions this year – the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting, in Shenzhen, China, in November; and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, Florida in the US in December. It would be unprecedented for the US president to travel to China twice in one year.The tone set during these initial talks suggests both sides recognize the importance of managing their complex relationship carefully. Xi's warning about not "messing it up" indicates the high stakes involved, while Trump's personal approach and emphasis on friendship suggests he may be seeking a personal channel for diplomacy alongside official channels.As both nations navigate differences on trade, Taiwan, and global security issues, the framework they've established as "constructive, strategic and stable" will be tested in the coming months. The frequency of their planned meetings suggests both sides understand the need for constant communication to prevent misunderstandings that could escalate into conflict.

The US Stance on Iran's Enriched Uranium President Donald Trump has warned that the United States will target any Iranian trying to reach the country’s highly enriched uranium, saying that the nuclear material is under constant surveillance by the US military. Trump's Claims on Uranium Surveillance In an interview with the syndicated TV show Full Measure that aired on Sunday, Trump appeared to play down the significance of the uranium, which is believed to be buried under the rubble of nuclear facilities, remaining in Iran for now. “We’ll get that at some point, whenever we want. We have it surveilled,” Trump said. “I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watching. If somebody walked in, they can tell you his name, his address, the number of his badge … If anybody got near the place, we will know about it, and we’ll blow them up.” The Data Analysis: Uranium Stockpile and Enrichment Levels Iran is estimated to have more than 400kg (882lb) of uranium enriched at 60 percent purity. Uranium enrichment is a complex process of isolating and garnering the most radioactive variety – isotope – of the element to produce nuclear fuel. When enriched to around 90 percent purity, uranium can be used to make nuclear weapons. The Impact Analysis: US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Iran’s highly enriched uranium is one of the major sticking points between Washington and Tehran in ceasefire negotiations to end the 10-week US-Israel war on Iran. The US wants Iran to transfer the uranium outside the country and completely shut down its nuclear programme, but Tehran has stressed that it will not give up its right to a domestic enrichment programme. The Prediction: Future of US-Iran Relations Despite the truce that came into effect last month, skirmishes have erupted in the Gulf over the past week as the US continues to enforce a siege on Iranian ports amid Tehran’s Hormuz blockade. Iranian state-affiliated news outlets reported on Sunday that Iran has delivered its response to the latest US proposal to end the war to Pakistan, which is mediating the talks. But Trump said the war is not over while reiterating his claim that Iran has been “defeated”.

The Surveillance Operation New Zealand’s military said a surveillance aircraft observed what it suspected was North Korea breaking international sanctions in a “possible ship-to-ship transfer of illicit goods”, while conducting monitoring over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Details of the Incident The exchange of goods at sea between vessels was captured by one of its long-range P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft in international waters near North Korea. The surveillance aircraft was patrolling for possible North Korean violations of United Nations sanctions at sea. The exchange was observed among 35 “vessels of interest” in the area. Implications of the Breach “The evidence captured of activities that were occurring in the East China and Yellow Seas allows authorities to take action against ships that may still be operating in contravention of [UN resolutions],” New Zealand’s Air Component Commander, Air Commodore Andy Scott, said in a statement. Background on North Korea Sanctions North Korea has been under UN sanctions since 2006 after carrying out its first nuclear weapons test. UN sanctions were significantly expanded in 2016 and 2017 to include a range of exports and ship-to-ship transfers. North Korea typically uses ships to smuggle refined petroleum imports and to export its coal, iron ore and sand, which help fund its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. Despite the restrictions, North Korea continues to trade goods with a handful of countries, including China, Iran, and Russia. New Zealand's Role in Enforcement New Zealand has been a member of the US-led Pacific Security Maritime Exchange since 2018, which monitors North Korea’s violation of international sanctions through smuggling and illicit maritime activity.

Summit Opens Amid Escalating US‑Israel Military ActionThe NPT review conference began in New York under the shadow of a tentative cease‑fire between United States and Iran. Negotiators are focused on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile—its size, location, and future disposition—while fresh US‑Israeli strikes have already rattled the diplomatic atmosphere.Key Figures, Historical Context, and Numbers Shaping the DebateBadr Albusaidi, Omani Foreign Minister, announced Iran’s commitment to “zero accumulation” and full IAEA verification on Feb 27.The NPT has 191 member states; five are recognized nuclear‑weapon states: US, Russia, China, UK, France.Iran’s JCPOA limits cut its stockpile by 98% to 300 kg and capped enrichment at 3.67%.By early 2025 Iran was enriching to 60%, the highest level for a non‑nuclear‑weapon state.Israel, the only Middle‑East nuclear power, is not a signatory to the NPT and maintains a policy of deliberate opacity.Why the NPT’s Credibility Is at StakeAnalysts such as Sahar Khan argue the treaty’s “grand bargain” is breaking down because nuclear‑weapon states are modernising arsenals while failing to meet disarmament commitments. Hossein Mousavian highlights inconsistent enforcement and the lack of decisive UN or IAEA responses to attacks on nuclear facilities, fostering a perception of a politicised regime.Historical precedents—like the 2000 review conference before the 2003‑2011 Iraq war—show how major conflicts can erode faith in arms‑control frameworks. The emergence of the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons further signals frustration with the NPT’s perceived double standards.Potential Outcomes and Scenarios for the Review ConferenceStalemate: Parties issue vague, non‑binding language, continuing the status‑quo of weak enforcement.Limited Consensus: Agreement on incremental verification steps for Iran’s stockpile without addressing broader disarmament.Breakthrough: Adoption of stronger mechanisms to curb nuclear‑weapon states’ modernization, though this is deemed unlikely by experts like Tariq Rauf.Past conferences (1995, 2000, 2010) have produced agreements that were quickly diluted, suggesting a similar pattern may repeat.Looking Ahead: The Future of Global Non‑ProliferationIf the NPT cannot adapt to the current geopolitical reality—marked by US‑Israel military pressure on Iran and the ongoing Russia‑Ukraine war—its relevance may diminish, prompting more states to seek alternatives such as the nuclear‑prohibition treaty. Conversely, a modest consensus on verification could preserve the treaty’s core framework, buying time for diplomatic breakthroughs.

The Diplomatic Pivot in TehranAs the two-month conflict between the United States and Iran enters its 59th day, the strategic landscape is shifting from kinetic warfare to high-stakes diplomacy. The central narrative is no longer just the exchange of fire, but the desperate diplomatic shuttle aimed at de-escalation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has moved rapidly from Islamabad to Muscat and now to Saint Petersburg, signaling a coordinated effort to secure a diplomatic exit strategy.Araghchi’s Moscow Mission and the US Conditional OfferThe core of the current diplomatic push involves a complex interplay of regional actors and high-level negotiations. Araghchi is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral ties and the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran. This meeting is critical as it places Russia at the center of potential mediation efforts.Araghchi’s Schedule: The Foreign Minister arrived in Saint Petersburg early Monday, aiming to secure a framework for negotiations.US Stance: President Donald Trump has signaled a conditional willingness to negotiate, stating Iran can telephone if it wishes to end the conflict, though he reiterated that Tehran cannot possess nuclear weapons.Russia’s Role: Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov has warned that the US must abandon "blackmailing" and "ultimatums" if talks are to progress.The Strategic Stalemate: Nuclear Ambitions and the Strait of HormuzThe data points defining the stalemate are stark and alarming. The conflict is currently trapped between two intractable issues: Iran's nuclear ambitions and the control of the Strait of Hormuz.Strategic Blockade: The Strait of Hormuz remains under a de facto Iranian blockade, a move the IRGC claims is a "definitive strategy" to maintain deterrent effects.Human Cost: On the ground, the conflict has claimed at least 14 lives in southern Lebanon on Sunday alone, including women and children, despite a US-brokered ceasefire.Nuclear Sticking Point: Both sides remain deadlocked on the issue of Iran's nuclear program, which serves as the primary trigger for the US military involvement.Regional Escalation: The Lebanon FrontThe diplomatic maneuvering in Moscow is happening against a backdrop of severe regional instability. The conflict is spilling over into Lebanon, where the situation is deteriorating rapidly.Israeli Operations: Israeli forces have raided southern Lebanon, cutting off roads and intensifying strikes.Hezbollah's Response: The militant group has rejected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's accusations of jeopardizing the ceasefire, framing its attacks as a "legitimate response" to continued Israeli violations.Outlook: A Fragile Path to NegotiationThe immediate future of the Iran war hinges on whether the diplomatic shuttle in Moscow can translate into a concrete framework. While the US has left the door open for a phone call, the conditions—specifically regarding the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz—remain largely unchanged. The coming days will determine if the diplomatic efforts in Russia can bridge the gap between the US's military posture and Iran's strategic demands, or if the violence in Lebanon will force a return to open warfare.

The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.