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Catastrophic Systems Failure in Youth Employment StrategyLabour has failed to tackle soaring youth unemployment and must launch a "system reset" involving a fresh attempt to overhaul health and disability benefits, a report commissioned by the government is to warn. Alan Milburn, who is leading a review into why almost a million young people are not in education or work, said ministers had so far responded with a series of disjointed jobs programs.The Milburn Review's Stark Assessment"It's going in the wrong direction," Milburn said. "When you look at that picture I guess our conclusion is it's a catastrophic systems failure." The former Labour health secretary will say in a highly anticipated report due to be published that the government must take a fresh approach to overhauling Britain's system of welfare and jobs support for young people.UK's Youth Unemployment Crisis in NumbersExperts have warned of a crisis in youth jobs, with official figures expected to show the number of young people not in education, employment or training (Neet) is close to breaking through a million. Britain has the third-highest rate of 16-24-year-olds who are neither earning or learning among wealthy European countries.Policy Conflicts and Economic PressuresThe figures come with Labour under pressure from business leaders who argue that the £25bn increase in employers' national insurance contributions by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, and an attempt to equalise minimum wages between young and older workers have contributed to soaring rates of youth joblessness.Path Forward: Welfare Reform with Employment FocusMilburn criticised Labour's previous attempts for prioritising cost savings over outcomes for people with health conditions and disabilities. "If you frame welfare reform through a cost-out lens, guess what you get? That's not the way to approach this," he said. "It's needed more for moral reasons than for fiscal reasons. It can't be right that young people who want to work are not being supported to do so."

The Lead Marks & Spencer's CEO, Stuart Machin, has publicly denounced the UK government's proposal for voluntary price caps on essential food items, labeling it as 'completely preposterous'. This stance comes as M&S; reports a 23.8% slump in underlying profits to £671m for the year ending March 28. M&S's Financial Performance M&S's underlying profits slumped by 23.8% to £671m in the year to 28 March as sales rose only 1.9% to £14.2bn despite widespread inflation of more than 3%. Profits were hit by £131.3m of costs related to a paralysing cyber-attack last year. The Government's Proposal The UK government had proposed that supermarkets consider voluntary price caps on essential food items such as bread, milk, and butter. However, Machin argues that this approach is not the solution, stating, 'I don’t think government should be trying to run business. They should try to understand business better.' The Impact of Taxes and Regulations Machin highlighted that M&S is facing 'a triple whammy of headwinds with increased taxation, a greater regulatory burden and ongoing global conflict'. He pointed out that the company will incur additional costs from a new packaging levy and national insurance changes, totaling around £50m to £100m. The Future Outlook Despite the challenges, M&S plans to invest in technology and open 18 new food stores. Machin emphasized that the next three years are critical for M&S as it invests for growth. The company also reported a strong performance in food sales, growing 7% and reaching a 4.1% market share.

Survey Reveals Strong Patriotic Sentiment Among UK Millionaires The research, commissioned by Patriotic Millionaires UK and carried out by Survation, asked 501 individuals with assets over £1 million (excluding their homes) about their attachment to the United Kingdom and their willingness to fund public services through higher taxation. Key Numbers: Pride, Concern, and Tax‑Paying Willingness 88% of respondents agreed with the statement “I am proud to live in the UK”. 75% said they would be willing to pay more tax to ensure social, cultural, and economic assets are properly funded. 64% support increasing taxes on capital and assets of the wealthiest to reduce the overall tax burden. 43% identified doctors and other qualified health staff as the group whose departure would hurt the country most. 9% were most worried about other millionaires leaving the UK. Other concerns included young people and business owners, each cited by 19% of respondents as potential losses to the nation. Implications for UK Fiscal Policy and Political Landscape The findings arrive as the Labour Party grapples with internal leadership questions following disappointing local election results. Proposals from candidates such as Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting include raising capital gains tax to fund a 2p cut in national insurance. The willingness of a sizable share of the ultra‑wealthy to back higher taxes could provide political cover for such measures. Critics have pointed to reports of a “millionaire exodus”, but the survey notes that the alleged 16,500‑person outflow cited by Henley & Partners represents only 0.5% of the UK’s three‑million millionaires. What This Means for Future Tax Debates and Migration Trends If policymakers take the survey at face value, future tax reforms may encounter less resistance from the very demographic they target. Moreover, the emphasis on retaining medical professionals—highlighted by the departure of over 4,000 doctors in 2024—suggests that addressing sector‑specific retention could become a fiscal priority alongside broader tax policy. Analysts will watch whether the Labour leadership leverages this data to counter narratives of a fleeing elite and to justify progressive tax proposals ahead of the next general election.

Labour-linked Groups Unveil Policy Proposals Groups connected to UK health secretary Wes Streeting and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham have proposed significant changes to government policy, offering insight into potential future directions for the country under either leader. Proposed Policy Changes The Growth Group, linked to Streeting, and the Tribune group of Labour MPs, associated with Burnham, have published competing visions for Britain's future, including substantial tax cuts, cost of living assistance, and major government reforms. Economic Impact and Future Directions With Keir Starmer facing pressure to step down, these groups are among several Labour-linked organizations proposing radical measures to influence future policy. The proposals include: Raising capital gains tax to fund a 2p cut in national insurance Granting mayors in England greater tax and spending powers Creating a new Department of the Prime Minister Allowing Thames Water to fail Refocusing British energy policy on affordability rather than clean power generation Alternative Proposals and Industry Impact The Tribune group has also suggested: Changing the UK's fiscal rules Stripping the Treasury of its responsibility for economic growth Reducing or abolishing council tax and stamp duty These proposals signal a potential shift towards a more progressive economic agenda, with ideas like rent controls being considered by various organizations. Future Outlook and Predictions As the prime minister finalizes his king's speech, which is expected to include legislation on closer EU alignment, immigration curbs, and reforms to the leasehold system, the political landscape appears poised for significant change. The influence of these Labour-linked groups may shape future policies, depending on the outcome of the current political uncertainty.

The Rise of the Neet Rate and Structural CausesBritain is facing a 'crisis' in youth employment, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment, or training (Neet) reaching nearly 1 million—the highest level in over a decade. The Resolution Foundation has identified the UK as having the third-highest Neet rate among Europe's richest countries, trailing only Italy and Lithuania.2019 vs 2025: The Neet rate for 18- to 24-year-olds rose from 13% to 15%.Scale: There are now 900,000 Neets in the UK.Comparison: The UK rate is higher than Germany and Denmark, and more than three times that of the Netherlands.The thinktank attributes this decline to a 'quartet of causes': a rise in ill-health, weak vocational education, a hands-off benefits system, and a deteriorating jobs market.The Economic and Policy Drivers Behind the SurgeThe deterioration of the UK's youth labor market is not solely due to economic cycles but is driven by specific policy decisions and systemic failures. The Resolution Foundation highlights that a weaker jobs market contributed to just over half of the recent rise in Neets since 2019.Employer Costs: Chancellor Rachel Reeves's £25bn rise in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) has been criticized by business leaders for driving up employment costs.Benefits System: Unlike peers with lower Neet rates, the UK has a distinct benefits system where 300,000 young people receive benefits with no requirements to engage with the Department for Work and Pensions.Mental Health: A significant portion of the remaining rise in Neets is explained by rising ill-health, particularly mental health issues.The Societal Cost of a Failing Transition to WorkThe widening gap between the UK and its European peers signals a deeper societal issue regarding the transition from education to the workforce. Lindsay Judge, the Resolution Foundation's research director, argues that the current system 'both expects and provides too little' to claimants.The stark contrast with countries like the Netherlands, which maintains a Neet rate a third of the UK's, underscores the need for a fundamental rethink of how young people interact with the benefit system and access vocational training.The £2.5bn Youth Guarantee and Future Policy OutlookIn response to the alarming statistics, the government is pivoting toward a 'working state' rather than a 'welfare state.' The upcoming policy measures aim to address the barriers preventing young people from entering the workforce.Youth Guarantee: A £2.5bn investment is being deployed to deliver a million opportunities, ensuring every young person has the chance to earn or learn.Independent Review: Former Labour health secretary Alan Milburn is expected to publish findings next month on the barriers stopping young people from getting into work.Disability Support: An additional £3.5bn is being allocated to provide tailored employment support for sick or disabled people.

The Lead: High-End Club's Service Charge ControversyExclusive Mayfair club Annabel's has admitted using more than £70,000 of staff service charge money to pay bonuses to managers, prompting a significant staff revolt. Restaurant tycoon Richard Caring, who owns the venue that has hosted celebrities, financiers and even royalty, called the practice a "dumb mistake" after being approached by The Guardian. The club has since implemented changes and made additional payments to staff, but workers continue to protest demanding better pay and transparency in how service charges are distributed.The Event Details: Service Charge Distribution at Annabel'sAnnabel's, located in London's prestigious Mayfair district, is known for its exclusive clientele who can spend more than £10,000 at a single table. Guests pay an optional 15% service charge, which is intended for staff, plus a £3-per-head cover charge kept by the company. The club can collect over £100,000 in service charges in just one week, with prices ranging from £6 for a latte to £125 for a ribeye steak.The service charge is distributed through a system called a tronc, which is shared among approximately 280 hospitality workers. Cash tips are divided separately. More than 60% of frontline staff are paid the £12.76-an-hour rate, which is just 5p above the legal minimum wage, making them heavily reliant on these gratuities to pay their bills.Workers discovered that their share of the bumper pre-Christmas service charge had been reduced by £70,000 to fund bonuses for about 50 managers. This revelation caused widespread anger among staff, with one noting, "everyone got mad" when they realized what had happened.The Financial Impact: Pay Structure and Legal ImplicationsAnnabel's staff are predominantly on zero-hours contracts and paid £12.76 an hour, with their earnings supplemented by tronc payments based on seniority. This pay structure means that tips constitute a significant portion of their income, with one worker stating, "There's really no fixed salary at all, it's low" and another noting, "Tips are a huge bit of pay. We cannot rely on minimum wage."Businesses do not pay national insurance contributions on service charges and tips, making this payment method financially advantageous for employers. Under UK law implemented in October 2024, employers must share 100% of service charges and tips with workers in a "fair and transparent manner," and employees have the right to know how these payments are allocated.Following the controversy, Annabel's made a "goodwill payment" of £103,000 to hourly workers at the start of April. The club claims it held a "full consultation" in 2024 on its previous policy of using "surplus tronc" to fund manager incentives, and maintains that it fully complies with the 2024 legislation.The Industry Impact: Changing Practices in UK HospitalityThe Annabel's controversy highlights broader issues in the UK hospitality industry regarding pay transparency, zero-hours contracts, and tip distribution. The incident comes as Richard Caring is selling a majority stake in his hospitality empire—including Annabel's, Harry's Bar, The Ivy restaurant group, and other upscale establishments—to Abu Dhabi's Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan for a reported £1.4bn.The Ivy chain is currently defending legal action from a waiter who claims he was refused details about how the restaurant group calculated his share of tips and service charges, indicating that Annabel's situation is not isolated.The IWGB union, representing dozens of Annabel's workers, is demanding that staff be paid at least London's independently verified living wage of £14.80 per hour, with greater transparency in service charge distribution and contractually guaranteed hours. Henry Chango Lopez, the union's general secretary, highlighted the disparity between the club's affluent clientele and struggling staff: "The billionaires and A-listers who make up Annabel's clientele can spend more on a single meal than the club's [little more than] minimum-wage, zero-hours staff take home in a month."The Future Outlook: Reform and ResistanceAnnabel's has announced plans to offer contracts guaranteeing at least 20 hours of work per week, with the aim of implementing them before an effective ban on zero-hours contracts takes effect in September 2025. Caring acknowledged that the club's tronc system could be more transparent, stating, "I believe in openness … Everybody should know what they are getting."Despite these changes, some Annabel's workers remain dissatisfied and plan to protest outside the Mayfair club. The controversy reflects growing pressure on high-end hospitality establishments to address wage inequality and improve working conditions as UK consumers become more conscious of how their tips are distributed.This case may set a precedent for other venues in the UK hospitality sector, particularly as enforcement of the 2024 tip-sharing legislation continues to develop. The industry faces increasing scrutiny as workers become more organized and aware of their rights, potentially leading to widespread changes in how service charges and tips are managed across the sector.

Lead: OECD Flags Record Rise in UK Tax WedgeThe Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development reports that the UK’s tax wedge – the total tax burden on labour – jumped by 2.45 percentage points in 2025, the steepest increase among the 38 OECD members.The Surge in Britain’s Tax WedgeAccording to the OECD’s annual study, the rise was driven by Rachel Reeves’s 2024 autumn budget, which lifted employer National Insurance Contributions and allowed fiscal drag to intensify.Numbers Behind the Rise: International ComparisonUK tax wedge: 32.4% (still below the OECD average of 35.1%)Next biggest increase: Estonia, +1.95 ppOther >1 pp gains: Germany +1.34 pp, Israel +1.09 pp24 of 38 OECD countries saw a rise; 11 fell and 3 were unchanged.Implications for the UK Labour Market and Fiscal PolicyThe higher tax burden adds pressure on low‑pay sectors such as hospitality, leisure and retail, where employment has already slipped. Labour’s promise not to raise taxes on workers is challenged by the inclusion of employer‑paid NICs in the wedge measure. The chancellor argues the steps are needed to repair public finances after 14 years of Conservative rule.Outlook: Future Tax Burden and Economic RisksThe International Monetary Fund projects that UK taxes as a share of GDP will climb at the fastest rate in the G7 through 2031, especially if the Iran‑related global recession deepens. Continued fiscal drag and higher NICs could further suppress take‑home pay and exacerbate unemployment risks.

The UK hospitality sector is reeling from a triple whammy of rising costs, including increased minimum wage, business rates, and energy prices. This has put immense pressure on businesses, particularly pubs and hotels, to maintain profitability.Nick Evans, co-owner of the Old Crown Coaching Inn in Oxfordshire, exemplifies the struggles faced by many in the industry. Despite a rich history dating back to 1645, Evans is finding it challenging to make ends meet. The pub's annual revenue stands at £1.4m, but rising costs, including a £350,000 wage bill and £80,000 energy bill, are eating into profits.The latest blow to the industry came on April 1, with increases in the minimum wage and business rates. Evans notes that the wage bill will rise to nearly £370,000, and the business rates increase will add another £24,000 to the bill. This comes on top of surging energy prices due to the Iran crisis, which will further exacerbate the cost burden.Evans argues that the national insurance change is misogynistic, as it disincentivizes employers from hiring part-time workers, often mothers seeking extra income. He also believes that the minimum wage increase will price young people out of the market, as employers may opt to hire adults for a pound more.Kate Nicholls, chair of UK Hospitality, warns that one in five businesses fear they may not survive the next 12 months. She emphasizes that the sector cannot absorb any more cost increases, and hikes will simply be passed through to consumers, driving inflation and hitting jobs.For now, Evans and his co-owner, Mike Webb, are seeking a more lenient payment plan for their VAT bill from HMRC. As Evans says, 'It’s tough, tough, tough.' The future of many hospitality businesses hangs in the balance as they struggle to navigate these unprecedented challenges.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.