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The LeadGaza stands at a critical juncture as fragile ceasefires take hold between the United States and Iran, and between Israel and Lebanon. Palestinians in the enclave are questioning whether this regional de-escalation will allow Israel to intensify its military assaults in Gaza or force it toward a more cautious path. With more than 2,500 people killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced since March, and tensions still simmering in the Strait of Hormuz, the focus now shifts to what lies ahead for Gaza.Regional Ceasefires and Their ImplicationsSince April 8, the US and Iran have maintained a tense ceasefire after weeks of reciprocal strikes. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have extended their ceasefire by three weeks, with US President Donald Trump announcing the agreement reached at the White House. These talks, however, excluded Hezbollah—the Iran-backed group that is a key Palestinian ally in the region. Despite the ceasefire, Israeli forces have established a "Yellow Line" demarcating occupied territory in southern Lebanon, mirroring tactics used in Gaza.The Israeli government has indicated its readiness to continue military operations in Gaza amid this relative calm on other fronts, raising fears among Palestinians of an all-out war returning to haunt them. This has created a complex geopolitical landscape where reduced tensions on some fronts may increase pressure on others.Two Scenarios for Gaza's FuturePalestinians in Gaza have identified two main scenarios emerging from the current situation. The first possibility is that the calm on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts leads Israel to put more military pressure on Gaza. The second scenario suggests that regional and global factors could prevent Israel from resuming full-scale military operations.Analysts Wissam Afifa and Ahed Farwana offer contrasting perspectives. Afifa believes the relative calm on other fronts increases Gaza's weight in Israeli calculations, allowing for "refocusing military and political attention on an unresolved agenda." However, he clarifies this doesn't necessarily mean a full-scale war but could lead to "intensified low-intensity political and security pressures."Farwana, meanwhile, argues that the pause in wars in Lebanon and Iran has reshuffled priorities within Israel, making Gaza "secondary" in the global discourse despite ongoing military operations. He suggests that an Israeli army exhausted from multiple wars, combined with manpower shortages, makes a return to full-scale war unlikely, with limited escalation being a more probable scenario.The Hamas Disarmament DilemmaA central obstacle in the US-backed Israel-Hamas "ceasefire" negotiations is the question of Hamas disarmament. The second phase of the agreement includes the formation of a national committee to govern Gaza, possible deployment of international forces, and talks on the future of weapons inside the enclave.Afifa describes Hamas's position of linking disarmament to a complete Israeli withdrawal and establishment of a Palestinian state as a "fundamentally strategic move, not merely a negotiating detail." Hamas wants discussions about its weapons to follow a full Israeli withdrawal, opening of border crossings, and Gaza's reconstruction—conditions laid out in the first phase of the ceasefire.Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem criticized linking implementation to disarmament, calling it "a clear bias towards the Israeli perspective." He emphasized that Israel must "fulfil the terms of the Gaza ceasefire and implement first-phase commitments," noting that the blockade and killings continue with more than 700 deaths recorded since the start of the truce.Israeli Expansionist PoliciesQassem warned that Israel has not halted its military policies but rather "distributed them across multiple fronts." He described the situation in Gaza as a "massacre in these sense" as rodents swarm displacement camps and diseases spread, with Israel allowing less than a third of the agreed aid to enter.The threats extend beyond Gaza to the occupied West Bank, where settlers engage in violence and expand illegal settlements, and to Lebanon and Syria, posing risks to broader Arab security. Qassem attributed these actions to "aggressive and expansionist Israeli policies" led by a far-right government.Several rounds of talks between a Hamas delegation and UN envoy Nikolay Mladenov in Cairo have focused on stabilizing the ceasefire and ensuring implementation of its first phase, but have not yielded breakthroughs on sensitive issues like disarming Hamas.Regional and International PressuresAfifa identified a "balancing factor": The international community, particularly the US, may prefer to prevent a new conflagration in Gaza after pauses in fighting in Lebanon and Iran. He expects the Trump administration to apply the same approach in Gaza, focusing on "preventing a major explosion, buying time and pushing parties towards interim arrangements."However, Gaza presents a different case for Washington, which "links political and security progress to the issue of Hamas's weapons and governance arrangements" in the enclave, making the chances of US pressure on Israel more complex.Farwana emphasized that Gaza needs stronger engagement from Arab and Muslim nations to ensure peace and push toward implementation of the ceasefire's second phase. "US President Donald Trump is the only party capable of exerting real pressure on Netanyahu, as seen in Lebanon, but this depends on parallel Arab and Islamic pressure," he concluded.

In a forceful statement released on Monday, a panel of 13 United Nations experts demanded that Israel halt all attacks on displaced Palestinians sheltering in Gaza and cease the accelerating forced‑displacement campaign in the occupied West Bank. Israeli air strikes in March set fire to tents housing Gaza’s internally displaced people, causing numerous fatalities, the experts noted, describing the tactic as part of a broader strategy to make life untenable for Palestinians. “This cycle of displacement, terror, and targeted attacks serves an ultimate purpose: to make life unbearable for Palestinians and permanently force them from their land,” the panel declared, underscoring the systematic nature of the violence. The experts warned that the targeting of makeshift shelters violates international humanitarian law and amounts to a grave breach, given that the majority of Gaza’s population has already endured multiple forced transfers. Beyond the immediate danger of bombardment, civilians living in tents face severe health threats—including hunger, exposure to freezing temperatures, flooding, and a lack of basic services. Women and children, the panel stressed, bear a disproportionate share of deprivation. Turning to the West Bank, the panel condemned what it described as a “sharp escalation in forced displacement” driven by the Israeli army and “state‑backed settler terrorism.” Daily attacks have resulted in killings, injuries, and the widespread destruction of homes, farmland, and livelihoods. According to a 2025 report from the UN Human Rights Office, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced amid the expansion of illegal settlements, a figure the experts say illustrates a broader policy of ethnic cleansing across the occupied Palestinian territory. The panel urged Israel to end all forced‑displacement activities in the West Bank and to facilitate the safe return of those uprooted. It also called on the international community to uphold its legal obligations, launch independent investigations, and refrain from providing assistance that could enable the continuation of the occupation. The 13‑member panel includes UN special rapporteurs such as Francesca Albanese (occupied Palestinian territory), Paula Gaviria Betancur (rights of internally displaced persons), Michael Fakhri (right to food), and Reem Alsalem (violence against women and girls).

At least seven Palestinians have been killed and others wounded in Israeli strikes across the central and southern Gaza Strip. An Israeli drone fired two missiles close to a police post in Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza, killing and wounding several people.Medical sources confirmed the early morning attack to Al Jazeera, saying the strike hit a group of civilians in the 'Block 9' area of Bureij. Several people were killed and seriously wounded, they said.Ambulance crews faced difficult conditions as they worked to transport the bodies and those injured to nearby hospitals, the sources added. The al-Aqsa hospital in central Gaza received six bodies and seven wounded people, including four in critical condition.Separately, in the southern Gaza Strip, Nasser Medical Complex received three wounded people following an Israeli drone strike against a tent of displaced people in the town of Bani Suheila, located east of Khan Younis.Al Jazeera's correspondent on the ground also reported Israeli artillery shelling and heavy tank fire near Bani Suheila and east of Gaza City.Israel's genocidal war on Gaza has killed more than 72,300 people since it began in October 2023, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, including at least 738 since the so-called ceasefire went into effect last October.The tally includes at least 32 deaths since the start of April alone – among them Al Jazeera journalist Mohammed Wishah, who was killed in an attack west of Gaza City earlier this week.United Nations human rights chief Volker Turk condemned Israel's recent violence in the Gaza Strip, saying that 'the unrelenting pattern of killings' reflects Israel's 'sweeping impunity'.Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, Israeli settlers and forces stormed homes and villages throughout the morning, continuing an escalating campaign to expand their illegal settlements.

Amid growing international focus on the Iran‑Israel conflict, Israel is pressing ahead with a systematic annexation of the West Bank, centred on the contentious E1 settlement project. The plan envisions the construction of 3,400 new homes on Palestinian land, a move designed to split the territory and undermine the viability of a future Palestinian state. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly condemned the annexation drive, labeling the E1 scheme illegal. Although the war in Iran and Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon have delayed the release of construction tenders, officials confirm that the tenders will be issued on 1 June. Criticism from the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy has so far failed to deter the Israeli government, which appears accustomed to rhetorical rebukes without concrete repercussions. As former EU officials note, the Union has yet to leverage its economic and diplomatic weight to stop the settlement expansion. The British Prime Minister has reaffirmed the stance of the International Court of Justice, declaring the 1967 occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank unlawful. This follows the United Kingdom’s formal recognition of the State of Palestine last year, alongside France, Canada and Australia. Given its historic ties and recent diplomatic recognitions, the UK is uniquely positioned to galvanise European and Commonwealth partners. Experts propose a three‑pronged approach: first, issue a clear warning that any contractor involved in designing, building or financing the E1 settlement jeopardises its commercial interests with the UK; second, impose a comprehensive ban on UK trade in goods, services and investment linked to the settlements; and third, suspend the trade concessions granted under the UK‑Israel trade and partnership agreement for breaching its human‑rights provisions. New Prime Minister Keir Starmer is urged to embed these measures within a broader strategy to strengthen European cooperation, champion equal rights, and secure mutual security for Israelis and Palestinians. Without enforceable consequences, the illegal settlement programme is likely to expand, heightening the risk of further violence. Vincent Fean – former consul‑general in JerusalemDavid Hannay – former UN ambassadorAnn Grant – former high commissioner to South AfricaEmyr Jones Parry – former UN ambassadorDavid Manning – former US ambassadorDavid Richmond – former FCO director generalPeter Westmacott – former US ambassadorJeremy Greenstock – former UN ambassadorFrances Guy – former Lebanon ambassadorPeter Millett – former Jordan ambassadorDerek Plumbly – former Egypt ambassadorEdward Clay – former Kenya high commissionerTony Brenton – former Russia ambassadorWilliam Patey – former Afghanistan ambassadorColin Budd – former Netherlands ambassadorAnthony Cary – former Canada high commissionerAlan Charlton – former Brazil ambassadorEdward Chaplin – former Iraq and Jordan ambassadorPeter Collecott – former Brazil ambassadorRichard Dalton – former Iran ambassadorMichael Hone – former Iceland ambassadorNicholas Hopton – former Iran ambassadorPeter Jenkins – former UN (Vienna) ambassadorRupert Joy – former EU ambassador to MoroccoRobin Kealy – former Tunisia ambassadorRobin Lamb – former Bahrain ambassadorAnthony Layden – former Morocco ambassadorRichard Makepeace – former UAE ambassadorMark Matthews – former Chad ambassadorRichard Northern – former Libya ambassadorChristopher Segar – former Iraq ambassadorAdrian Sindall – former Syria ambassador

Israel's newly approved $271 billion budget has sparked concerns over its implications for the occupied West Bank, with a significant portion allocated to settlement expansion and far-right ideological projects. The budget, the largest in Israel's history, was passed early on Monday from a fortified bunker, amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.The ruling coalition has bypassed legal frameworks to direct billions towards these goals, citing national security concerns. A key allocation is $129.5 million to the Ministry of Settlement and National Missions, which authorizes illegal Jewish-only settlements and outposts on Palestinian land.Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a settler himself, has been granted sweeping powers over the occupied territory and has openly opposed the two-state solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has echoed this sentiment, stating there will be no Palestinian state west of the Jordan River.The budget also includes funds for projects such as building bypass roads through Palestinian towns, providing protection for illegal settlement outposts, and incorporating armed settlers into the state's civilian security apparatus. These moves are seen as entrenching the occupation and empowering far-right elements of Netanyahu's government.The allocation comes against a backdrop of surging violence by settlers and Israeli armed forces' raids on Palestinian communities across the West Bank, which have intensified since the onset of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023. UN data shows nearly 3,000 attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank over the past two years.The budget's passage has highlighted divisions within the Israeli opposition, with Yair Lapid accusing rival parties of being more focused on criticizing his party than uniting against the governing coalition. Analysts warn that the spending bill will have severe long-term consequences, including further destabilizing the region and undermining any future viable Palestinian state.

Irish MEP Barry Andrews toured makeshift shelters in Beirut last month, where displaced families are living on dirty mattresses and blankets and suffering from infections. The conditions, he said, are worse than during Israel’s 2024 incursion, underscoring the human cost of Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.On returning to Dublin, Andrews became one of the first European lawmakers to urge the European Union to revive sanctions against Israel. He argued that the EU must also address state‑backed settler violence in the West Bank, attacks on health workers in Gaza, and Israel’s recent move to reinstate the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism.The EU’s leverage lies in its association agreement with Israel, a commerce and cooperation accord that underpins a €68 billion (€59 bn) trading relationship and includes cooperation on energy and scientific research. Former EU representative to the Palestinian territories, Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff, says the bloc should suspend this agreement, halt all military aid, and cease trade with illegal settlements, warning that inaction will further damage the EU’s reputation.Andrews described the EU’s reaction to the Iran‑Israel‑Lebanon war as “weak and pathetic,” adding that it effectively gives Israel a “permission slip for endless war crimes.” The European Commission condemned the Knesset’s death‑penalty vote as “very concerning” and a “clear step backwards,” while the Council of Europe called it a “legal anachronism” incompatible with modern human‑rights standards.Human‑rights figures note that in the past four weeks more than 1,240 people have been killed in Lebanon—including at least 124 children—and over 1.1 million have been displaced. In Gaza, the death toll has risen by 673 since the October ceasefire, bringing the total to 72,260 deaths.EU leaders have been divided on how to respond. Former Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed unprecedented sanctions last September, citing a “man‑made famine” in Gaza, but the proposal failed to secure a majority in the Council of Ministers, losing momentum after the U.S. announced a cease‑fire plan.Member states also differ: Ireland, Spain and Slovenia champion the Palestinian cause, whereas Germany, Austria and Hungary—led by Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—have resisted measures such as sanctions on West Bank settlers.Despite these divisions, a senior EU diplomat warned in mid‑March that the bloc may need to “increase pressure on Israel again,” citing the “highly problematic” situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Another diplomat highlighted the importance of engaging with Israeli civil society, noting an open letter from 600 Israeli security officials urging an end to the Gaza war.In a recent statement, a Commission spokesperson reiterated that diplomatic engagement with Israel continues, describing it as the standard approach when partners “do not see developments eye to eye.” Yet former EU envoy Kühn von Burgsdorff cautioned that the EU cannot appear as a “sidekick” to an “erratic, unreliable” U.S. president or a “warmongering, annexationist” Israeli prime minister, as such a stance would undermine Europe’s global standing.

Every year on March 30, Palestinians observe Land Day, or Yom al-Ard, recalling the events of 50 years ago when Israeli forces killed six unarmed Palestinians and injured over 100 during protests against Israel's confiscation of Palestinian land.On March 30, 1976, Israel ordered the confiscation of 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) of land belonging to Palestinian citizens of Israel in the Galilee, as part of its policy to Judaise Galilee following the creation of the State of Israel.The protests, which were concentrated in the Palestinian towns of Sakhnin, Arrabeh, and Deir Hanna, were met with brutal force by Israeli authorities. The confiscated land is roughly the size of 3,000 football pitches or the area from the southern tip of Manhattan to the start of Central Park in New York.Palestinians, both in Israel and across the occupied Palestinian territory, mark this day by holding protests, vigils, and planting olive trees to reaffirm their connection to the land. However, these protests are often met with brutal use of force by Israel.Israel has continued to seize large swaths of Palestinian land, designating them as military zones, state land, and other labels. Recently, on February 8, 2026, Israel's security cabinet approved measures to expand its powers across the occupied West Bank, including easing the sale of Palestinian land to Israeli settlers.Rights groups and several countries have condemned Israel's land grab, calling it “de facto annexation” and a “deliberate and direct attack” on the viability of a Palestinian state. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has ramped up both formal settlement approvals and informal outpost establishments.According to Peace Now, an Israeli anti-settlement group, Israel approved 12,349 housing units in 2023, 9,884 in 2024, and a record 27,941 in 2025. In December, Israel's security cabinet approved plans to formalize 19 illegal settlements across the occupied West Bank.

As Israeli settlers intensify violent attacks against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, often while Israeli forces stand by, a notable shift is occurring in US political circles. Even staunch supporters of Israel within the Democratic party are now publicly denouncing the escalating violence.In recent days, dozens of settlers have engaged in apparently coordinated attacks, torching homes and vehicles while targeting Palestinian civilians. Since the beginning of the month, Israeli settlers and police have killed at least 10 Palestinian civilians in the occupied territory, including two young brothers and their parents who were returning from a Ramadan shopping trip.Among the voices breaking ranks is Ritchie Torres, a New York Democratic representative and one of Israel's most ardent supporters in Congress. In a statement this week, he declared that "the crisis of extremist settler violence in the West Bank must be confronted, and the perpetrators must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law." He called for "zero tolerance for violent extremism, no matter what form it takes."Another pro-Israel Democrat, Daniel Goldman of New York, condemned the violence as an "outrage" and urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring to vote proposed legislation seeking to impose sanctions against those "undermining prospects for a two-state solution by committing illegal violent acts." He also criticized the Trump administration for rescinding sanctions against violent settlers that had been issued under the Biden administration.Several other Aipac-backed politicians have joined the condemnation, including Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, who called on the Israeli government to "stop being complicit," and Arizona Congressman Greg Stanton, who labeled the attacks "acts of terrorism." Ohio Democratic Congresswoman Shontel Brown accused Trump of "green-lighting settler violence," while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen stated that "violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank is a national security threat to Israel and must be treated as such."The political shift comes as US public support for Israel has plummeted. An NBC News poll found that two-thirds of Democrats now say their sympathies lie with Palestinians over Israelis—a dramatic reversal with significant implications for upcoming elections. Meanwhile, 68% of Republicans continue to express stronger support for Israel.A Guardian analysis revealed that Israel has not prosecuted any of its citizens for killing Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank since the start of the decade. The UN has warned that the Israeli government has accelerated illegal settlement expansion, forcibly displacing approximately 36,000 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem over the past year.Political analysts suggest these pro-Israel Democrats are "trapped between the money they've relied on to make their campaigns work and the voters they actually need to win," with condemnation of settler violence offering a way to express discontent without challenging the Israeli state itself.

Israeli settlers carried out coordinated attacks on multiple towns and villages in the occupied West Bank for the second consecutive night, resulting in at least nine Palestinian injuries. The violence took place during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, marking the end of Ramadan.In one incident, a 45-year-old man was shot in the foot during a confrontation with Israeli settlers in Deir al-Hatab, east of Nablus. The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) reported that a 47-year-old Palestinian man was attacked by settlers in Jabal al-Arma in Beita, while others were beaten.The attacks were widespread, with homes and cars set ablaze and property vandalized across the occupied West Bank. Simultaneous assaults occurred in at least six communities, including villages near Jenin and Nablus.The violence followed a funeral for 18-year-old Yehuda Sherman, an Israeli settler killed in a collision with a Palestinian vehicle. Israeli police are investigating claims that the collision was deliberate.The Israeli government's expansion of illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank has been met with international criticism. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that 25 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli settlers and soldiers so far this year.Amnesty International condemned the expansion of illegal settlements and state-backed settler violence, calling it a "direct indictment of the international community's catastrophic failure" to take action. The International Court of Justice ruled in 2024 that Israel's continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and should end "as rapidly as possible".