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Djibouti's longtime President Ismail Omar Guelleh has claimed a landslide victory in the country's latest elections, ushering in his sixth consecutive term in the Horn of Africa country.Guelleh secured 97.81 percent of the votes cast on Friday, according to official results published by Djibouti's state-run news agency.His sole opponent, Mohamed Farah Samatar, earned just 2.19 percent of votes. Samatar's Unified Democratic Centre (CDU) opposition party has no seats in parliament, and he struggled to gain recognition ahead of the polls.Guelleh, 78, wrote on X as early results arrived: “Reelected”. Politicians last year removed presidential age limits, allowing him to seek another five years in power.Voter turnout was 80.4 percent on Friday, according to Djibouti media outlets. Roughly a quarter of the population – about 256,000 people – were registered to vote.Guelleh has ruled Djibouti's population of roughly one million since 1999. Neighbouring Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, the country is strategically located at the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which provides access to the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden.Even as voters turned in their ballots on Friday, few doubted who would win. Thousands had gathered at Guelleh's campaign rallies ahead of the election, while his posters could be seen plastered across the capital.

Djibouti, a one‑million‑strong nation perched on the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait, is set to hold its presidential election on April 10. All signs point to incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh securing a sixth term with little genuine opposition. The country’s strategic location—linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—makes it a linchpin for global trade and a magnet for foreign military installations. The United States, France, China, Italy and Japan all maintain bases there, earning Djibouti the reputation of hosting the highest concentration of overseas military sites. Officially, Djibouti recognizes French and Arabic, while Somali and Afar are widely spoken among the two main ethnic groups, which together comprise roughly 95% of the population. Islam is practiced by about 94% of residents, and the Djiboutian franc remains the national currency. According to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 243,471 citizens—about a quarter of the population—are registered to vote, up from roughly 215,000 in the 2021 poll. Historical turnout averages around 67%. IGAD’s eight‑nation bloc has dispatched 17 observers from Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda to monitor the process, with a post‑vote statement slated for April 12. Ismail Omar Guelleh, 78, leads the ruling People’s Rally for Progress. After parliament lifted the 75‑year age ceiling in November and abolished term limits back in 2010, Guelleh is now eligible for another term. Critics label his rule as authoritarian, yet they also acknowledge the relative stability he has maintained in a volatile region. Guelleh’s administration has turned Djibouti’s lack of natural resources into a revenue engine by signing infrastructure deals with China and leasing military facilities to Western powers. In 2017, Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh estimated that the bases generate roughly $125 million annually, with the United States contributing nearly half of that sum. The U.S. installation, Camp Lemonnier, remains the only permanent American base on the continent. The sole challenger, Mohamed Farah Samatar, runs under the Unified Democratic Centre after breaking away from the ruling party. His campaign slogan—“another Djibouti is possible”—has resonated only modestly, and observers such as Horn‑of‑Africa expert Sonia le Gouriellec describe the contest as a “token competition”. Human‑rights advocates echo this sentiment, calling the election a “masquerade” and a foregone conclusion. Key issues dominate the discourse. Democratic freedoms have eroded; opposition parties have boycotted elections since 2016, and Guelleh captured over 90% of the vote in 2021. The country ranks 168th out of 180 in the 2025 Reporters Without Borders press‑freedom index, and allegations of corruption and nepotism persist, including speculation that Guelleh’s stepson, Naguib Abdallah Kamil, is being groomed for succession. Economically, Djibouti’s reliance on Chinese financing is creating fiscal strain. By 2026 the nation owed China roughly $1.2 billion in loans, prompting the IMF to label its debt profile “in distress and unsustainable”. Massive infrastructure projects—most notably a railway to Ethiopia—have failed to curb poverty, with 73% of the youth unemployed. The country’s lifeline is its port system, which handles virtually all of Ethiopia’s maritime trade, amounting to about $2 billion in annual revenue. Ethiopia’s recent flirtation with a Somaliland port deal threatened Djibouti’s monopoly, though a Turkey‑mediated agreement in late 2024 redirected Ethiopia toward a “reliable and sustainable” sea corridor with Somalia. In sum, the upcoming election is less about a competitive political showdown and more about reaffirming a status quo that intertwines Djibouti’s geopolitical leverage, foreign‑military income, and mounting debt challenges.

Iran has issued a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in response to escalating tensions with the US. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iranian allies could shut the route, similar to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab al-Mandeb is a crucial passage for global oil trade, with 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passing through it in 2024, accounting for 5% of the global total. A closure of both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would block 25% of the world's oil and gas supply.The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region. During Israel's conflict in Gaza, the Houthis blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for ships associated with Israel or the US.A closure of the Bab al-Mandeb would have significant implications for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia and global container shipping from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. It could also exacerbate the ongoing global energy supply crisis.Experts warn that a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb would create a 'nightmare scenario,' disrupting trade toward Europe and potentially leading to a broader conflict in the region.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced that they, along with their backers Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, have launched a coordinated attack on Israel. The assault involved a barrage of cruise missiles and drones aimed at several vital and military sites belonging to Israel. The attack was confirmed by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, who stated that the operation was a show of solidarity with the Palestinians. This development marks a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict, drawing in multiple actors from the region. The Houthis, who control much of northern Yemen, have been involved in the conflict since March 28, when they officially joined the war in support of Iran. They have previously targeted Israel and disrupted shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as a show of solidarity with the Palestinians during the Israeli war on Gaza. In related developments, Israeli officials reported that the bodies of four people killed in an Iranian strike on a residential building in Haifa had been recovered. This comes as Israel continues to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, with recent strikes hitting Beirut's southern suburbs and other areas in the country's south. The Israeli military has been pounding Lebanon, saying it is targeting Hezbollah terror targets. On Sunday, Israel struck two Amana petrol stations controlled by Hezbollah, which served as significant financial infrastructure for the group. In south Lebanon, four people were killed in a raid on a car in Kfar Rumman. Lebanon's Health Ministry reported that an Israeli attack killed a paramedic from the Hezbollah-allied Risala Scout Association on Monday. Two paramedics from the Islamic Health Committee were also killed in an Israeli strike a day earlier. The World Health Organization (WHO) has verified 92 attacks on health facilities, medical vehicles, personnel, and warehouses in the region. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with Lebanon reporting 1,497 people killed since the war erupted, including 57 health workers. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing strikes and counter-strikes threatening to expand the conflict further.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, have recently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This move has analysts warning of a potential new front in the war, particularly with the group's ability to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a crucial passage for global commodities trade.The strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for 10% of global trade, including a significant share of oil and gas shipments. Blocking this strait could have severe implications for the global economy, potentially disrupting trade and leading to increased inflation.Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced the group's first attack on Israel, followed by a second military operation using cruise missiles and drones. The Houthis have warned they will continue military operations until Israel ceases its aggression.The group's actions are seen as a significant development in the conflict, with Iran likely to welcome the Houthis' involvement. However, the extent of their participation remains uncertain, with some analysts describing their actions as token participation rather than full engagement.If the Houthis were to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, it would create a nightmare scenario for global trade, particularly for Europe. This move, combined with potential restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, could cripple trade and have far-reaching economic consequences.Analysts suggest that the Houthis' current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness. Their decision to target Israel directly, rather than escalating in the Red Sea, indicates a strategic approach aligned with Tehran's broader strategy.For now, the Houthis' threat to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait remains a significant concern, with global trade and economies potentially hanging in the balance.