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Demonstrators took to the streets of cities across the United States for the first 'No Kings' protest since the joint US and Israeli war against Iran began one month ago. The protests, which mark the third round of nationwide 'No Kings' demonstrations, saw over 3,300 events planned across all 50 states, with large crowds expected in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC.The main event was scheduled for the Minneapolis-St Paul area in Minnesota, known as the Twin Cities, which became a focal point for Trump's hardline immigration crackdown in December. More than 3,000 federal immigration agents descended on the Twin Cities, leading to accusations of excessive force during deportation raids.In January, agents shot and killed two US citizens, Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good, prompting nationwide outrage and calls for reform. Dozens of lawsuits have been filed as a result of the operation, which was wound down in February.Progressive Senator Bernie Sanders addressed attendees, and rock icon Bruce Springsteen performed at the event, along with folk singer Joan Baez. Actor Robert De Niro told the crowd in Minnesota in a pre-recorded address, 'You've shown bravery in the face of armed attack by government thugs, and you stood together and ran them out of town'.The previous two 'No Kings' marches took place in June and October and drew millions of people. Trump responded to the October protest by posting an AI-generated video depicting himself dumping faeces on the protesters. The US is currently in the midst of campaigns for its pivotal midterm elections in November, which will see Trump's Republican Party seek to defend its majorities in both chambers of Congress.Democrats are hoping to gain seats as Trump's popularity droops. Sanders was among the speakers who reminded protest attendees of the importance of the upcoming vote, saying, 'We will not allow this country to descend into authoritarianism or oligarchy. In America, we the people will rule'.

Reza Pahlavi, the self-styled crown prince of Iran, has made a bold appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas, where he pledged to 'make Iran great again' and received a raucous welcome from the audience.Pahlavi, who has become a central opposition figure in the Iranian diaspora, urged US President Donald Trump not to cut a deal with Iran and instead seek regime change, aligning himself with the administration's most hawkish figures.“Can you imagine Iran going from ‘Death to America’ to ‘God Bless America’?” Pahlavi asked his audience in Grapevine, Texas, receiving a standing ovation with his remarks.“President Trump is making America great again. I intend to make Iran great again,” he added, echoing Trump's famous slogan.The speech comes amid a war between the US and Israel against Iran, which has resulted in at least 1,937 deaths and tens of thousands of injuries in Iran, with no end to the fighting in sight.Pahlavi has emerged as an outspoken supporter of Trump, and his appearance at CPAC highlights the divisions within the US right over the war in Iran.While some in the Iranian diaspora have expressed reservations about the US-Israeli attacks, Pahlavi has called for the Iranian regime to be overthrown, saying, “This regime in its entirety must go.”Analysts have warned that the Iranian government is unlikely to collapse and could emerge from the conflict more hardened than before, but Pahlavi remains a central figure in the opposition movement.

Iran has agreed to permit 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil supplies. This development is seen as a significant step towards alleviating the severe energy crisis affecting the region.Pakistan's Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, announced the agreement, stating that two ships will cross daily under the arrangement. He described Iran's decision as 'a harbinger of peace' and a 'welcome and constructive gesture'.The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28, triggering a war that has resulted in significant loss of life and disruptions to global markets. The conflict has killed about 2,000 Iranians and over 1,100 people in Lebanon.The strait is a critical passage for oil supplies, with an estimated 2,000 vessels stranded on either side. This blockade has caused oil prices to surge past $100 a barrel, up by roughly 40 percent. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has turned the strait into a checkpoint, requiring ships to submit cargo details and receive clearance codes.At least two vessels have reportedly paid $2 million per crossing, settled in Chinese yuan, to secure passage. Iran's parliament is now moving to legalize this arrangement as a potential source of revenue.This agreement is the result of intense Pakistani diplomacy, with Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir speaking to US President Donald Trump and Foreign Minister Dar holding calls with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.

For the second consecutive year, US Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the leading candidate in the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a prominent right-wing gathering in the United States. The poll, which is not necessarily an accurate predictor of the Republican nominee, saw Vance secure 53 percent of the votes from nearly 1,600 attendees. This significant lead highlights Vance's strong support within the conservative base. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another senior official under President Donald Trump, showed a notable improvement from last year's poll, where he tied for fourth place. Rubio garnered 35 percent of the vote, indicating a rising popularity among CPAC attendees. The straw poll results were announced on stage at the conference, which took place over four days and featured speakers such as Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro. CPAC's annual conference tends to attract attendees from the political right, and this year's event was no exception. The poll results come at a critical time for the Republican Party, with less than eight months until the midterm elections in the US. The party is hoping to defend its congressional majorities amid challenges such as the ongoing war in Iran and rising gas prices. Vance, a veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio, is seen as representing a more isolationist branch of Trump's 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) base. He has been critical of US involvement in foreign conflicts but has defended Trump's decision to join Israel in joint strikes on Iran. Rubio, on the other hand, has a longer political resume and is viewed as more hawkish towards regime change, particularly in Cuba. Both Vance and Rubio had previously criticized Trump before joining his administration. While the CPAC straw poll has historically shown a realignment in the Republican Party around Trump's politics, it is not always an accurate predictor of future election outcomes. The party's consolidation around Trump's agenda has led to the marginalization of moderate and critical voices.

Donald Trump has indicated a shift in his administration's stance on oil shipments to Cuba, stating that he has 'no problem' with countries sending oil to the island, whether it's Russia or not. This development comes as a Russian oil tanker, under US sanctions, was set to arrive in the Caribbean island. The Russian tanker, Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying 730,000 barrels of crude, could soon discharge at Cuba's Matanzas port. This shipment would provide significant relief to Cuba, which has not received any oil imports for three months, leading to strict rationing of gasoline and exacerbating an energy crisis that has resulted in multiple power outages across the island. Cuba lost its main regional ally and oil supplier in January when US forces captured Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump subsequently threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending oil to Cuba and has mused about 'taking' the island. The US oil blockade has forced Cuba to impose emergency measures to conserve fuel, including strict rationing of gasoline. Fuel prices have soared, public transport has dwindled, and some airlines have suspended flights to Cuba, hitting the country's fragile economy. Jorge Pinon, an expert on Cuba's energy sector at the University of Texas at Austin, noted that once the Russian tanker enters Cuban waters, it 'is almost impossible for the US government to stop it.' The Russian shipment could be converted into 250,000 barrels of diesel, enough to cover the country's demand for about 12.5 days, according to Pinon.

Pakistan's attempts to facilitate peace talks between Iran and the US are encountering substantial obstacles. The intensification of Israeli bombing campaigns on civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military presence in the Gulf region are casting a shadow over these efforts.Pakistan, maintaining relative neutrality with good relations with both Iran and the US, had hoped to provide a venue for negotiations. However, the conflict is widening, trust is scarce, and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe Israel's actions pose a significant risk to any potential talks, particularly given recent attacks on civilian nuclear sites and steel plants.Iran's core concerns include ensuring an end to the war and preventing future attacks by the US and Israel. Former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi, expressed skepticism about US President Donald Trump's reliability, citing his unpredictable nature.Despite these challenges, Pakistan continues its diplomatic efforts. The country's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has been in communication with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are set to hold talks in Islamabad to discuss ending the conflict.The situation remains complex, with US troop buildup suggesting that peace talks may not align with US plans. Iran has expressed distrust towards previous US interlocutors, but there is consideration for US Vice-President JD Vance to represent the US in talks, an idea supported by Iran.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

The possibility of US ground troops being sent into combat on Iranian soil is growing, driven by President Trump's desire to avoid being personally and politically humiliated in a war he started, mismanaged, and cannot end. Such a self-serving escalation could prove catastrophic for Trump and the American people, given the history of US military interventions in the region.Trump insists that the war is all but won, Iran is suing for peace, and talks are making good progress. However, in the real world, Iran is still fighting on all fronts, Israel is still bombing, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has joined the war, attacking Israel and potentially blocking Red Sea trade routes.The US and Iran have each issued maximalist demands, but there is no sign of actual negotiations. They are even further apart than they were before Trump, egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned diplomacy last month. Sometime soon, Trump will be forced to confront the huge gap between what he wants and what's on offer. At that point, he could turn to the troop buildup in the Gulf and order ground attacks.It's incredible to think that after all the mortal agony and anguish of Iraq and Afghanistan, a US president is once again seriously contemplating boots on the ground in the Middle East. Trump's stumped, hoist by his own petard, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and up the creek without a paddle. The creek in question is, of course, the Strait of Hormuz.Trump is increasingly isolated and out on a limb. His wealthy Arab business cronies no longer trust him. US bases on their territory now resemble a liability, not a defence. When he demanded NATO's help, Europe said: we'll let you know. Likewise, Iran's ethnic Kurds are less than keen to die for a muppet. Support for the war among the US public and the Maga right, always weak, is a fast-vanishing mirage.If Trump were to order ground attacks – both he and Netanyahu have publicly discussed the possibility – the targets would most likely be the coastal batteries, missile defences, and concealed armed speedboat bases dotting the northern flank of the Hormuz strait. An attack on the Kharg oil export terminal further up the Gulf is also predicted.The inherent, inescapable military risks are daunting. Casualties would be inevitable. Even if operations went well in the short term, questions would immediately arise about potential escalation when Iran counterattacked, expansion of the operational area, and duration of the occupation.

The conflict in the Middle East has taken a dramatic turn as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a second wave of attacks on Israel since joining the conflict on Saturday. The Houthis have vowed to continue their military operations in the coming days until Israel "ceases its attacks and aggression".In a significant escalation, two powerful explosions shook northern Tehran early on Sunday, with air defenses operating in the Iranian capital. The blasts occurred around 7:20 am, but it was not immediately clear what was targeted.Meanwhile, the US is reportedly preparing plans for ground operations in Iran, with the Trump administration having already deployed US Marines to the Middle East. The Pentagon is considering weeks of ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz.The entry of the Houthis into the conflict poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a critical choke point in the supply chain of energy supplies and other trade in and out of the Middle East. A shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has told one of the US's biggest annual gatherings of conservatives that he is ready to lead a new Iranian government and would call on the country's citizens to rise up when the "right moment arrives".Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US universities in the Middle East after saying US-Israeli strikes had deliberately targeted two Iranian universities.