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The recent developments in the Iran-US conflict have sparked concerns about the potential for a prolonged and devastating war. Iranian barrages have targeted Israel, Gulf Arab states, and northern Iraq, while Israeli and US warplanes have struck across Iran. The US has considered deploying troops on the ground, further escalating tensions.British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has warned that the conflict may endure, and the economic risks are already crystallizing. Business activity growth in Britain has slowed, manufacturers' input costs have seen their sharpest rise since 1992, and home loans are becoming dearer as the war feeds into energy and inflation fears.The UK government is drawing up contingency plans, such as lowering speed limits to cut fuel use. However, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has ruled out universal household support for any 'Trumpflation' and insists help will remain within her 'iron-clad' fiscal rules. This approach has raised concerns about the government's ability to mitigate the economic impact of the conflict.The conflict has significant implications for global energy markets. Disruptions to oil and gas flows could lead to a structural shift in global energy use, with Europe potentially accelerating its green energy transition and Asia opting for increased coal use. The UK's clean energy transition may be impacted, with higher costs and disrupted supply posing challenges.In conclusion, the Iran-US conflict poses significant risks to global economic stability and energy markets. The UK government must navigate these challenges carefully, balancing the need for economic support with the imperative of maintaining fiscal discipline.

An Iranian missile has struck central Tel Aviv, causing widespread damage to buildings and vehicles, and injuring at least six people. The attack has led to a significant escalation of tensions in the region, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to continue striking Tehran and Lebanon.“There’s more to come,” Netanyahu said in remarks that appeared to corroborate those of three Israeli officials who told Reuters they thought it was improbable that Iran would accept US demands in any new round of negotiations. This development has dimmed hopes of de-escalation after US President Donald Trump played up the chances of a deal to end the conflict.In a statement released on Tuesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch heavy missile and drone attacks at Israeli troops in northern Israel and the area near Gaza “without restraint” unless Israel ceased attacks in Lebanon and Palestine. The threat has raised concerns about the potential for further escalation in the region.Police said an Iranian munition carrying a substantial explosive payload struck the central city, causing widespread damage to buildings and vehicles. At least six people were lightly injured. Several buildings were damaged across Tel Aviv, with emergency services reporting casualties at one of the impact sites. One building and the adjacent road were heavily affected, with cars set ablaze.Israel’s health ministry reports 4,829 injured people have been brought to hospitals since the onset of the war. Of those people, 111 remain in hospital and 12 are in a serious condition. The strikes were the latest in a cycle of retaliation after Israeli operations announced on Monday.About 40 minutes after Trump said he would delay action against Iran’s power infrastructure, Israel said on X that it had “just begun another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran”. The Israel Defense Forces said energy facilities would be spared, suggesting that Israel may be aligning with Washington in suspending attacks on Iranian power plants and related sites.The US-based Human Rights Activists’ News Agency said in the previous 24 hours it had recorded at least 206 attacks across 15 provinces in Iran, resulting in at least four casualties (killed and injured, both civilian and military). At least six people were killed in strikes on homes in the city of Tabriz, according to Iran’s Fars news agency.Since US-Israeli bombs started falling on Iran, estimates of total deaths (military and civilian) in the country have exceeded 1,500, with some rights groups reporting figures as high as 3,230 as of 21 March. The escalation has also spilled beyond Israel, with Iranian strikes extending into Gulf states.

US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause in attacks on Iran's power infrastructure for five days. The move comes after Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz or risk US attacks on its power plants.Iran's Response to US Ultimatum: Iran threatened to attack power plants in Israel and the Gulf if its own power plants were targeted. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it would hit power plants in Israel as well as any supplying electricity to military bases hosting US troops and assets in the region.Potential Targets: Iran could target Israeli power plants, including Orot Rabin north of Tel Aviv, with a capacity of around 3,900 megawatts, and Rutenberg in Ashkelon, with a capacity of around 2,250 megawatts. Iran also mentioned that it would target financial entities that finance US military assets, including US Treasury bonds.Energy Infrastructure: Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have already had significant impacts. Qatar's state-run energy firm, QatarEnergy, halted LNG production following Iranian attacks on its operational facilities, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue. Saudi Arabia also shut down operations at the Ras Tanura plant, its biggest domestic oil refinery.Financial and Corporate Entities: Iran could target large US companies with Israeli links, including Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle. Iranian officials also mentioned that they would target US Treasury bonds and entities that finance US military assets.Other Critical Infrastructure: Iran's foreign minister accused the US of striking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island off the coast of Iran, cutting off the water supply to 30 villages. Bahrain also reported that an Iranian drone caused material damage to one of its desalination plants.