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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

Russia's Ministry of Defence has declared that its forces have gained complete control over the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine. This development comes as Moscow continues its efforts to expand its territorial control in the region. The ministry stated that units of the 'West' military grouping have completed the 'liberation' of the Luhansk People's Republic, a term used by Moscow to refer to the Ukrainian region. However, there was no immediate confirmation of this claim from Ukrainian authorities. Luhansk, along with Donetsk, forms the broader Donbas area. More than 99 percent of Luhansk has been under Russian control since the beginning of the 2022 invasion. The region was one of four Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia in 2022. Additionally, Russia controls approximately three-quarters of Donetsk. The Kremlin reiterated its demand for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the entirety of Donetsk, which Kyiv has consistently rejected. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to withdraw his forces from the Donbas area, suggesting that this would bring an end to what Russia refers to as the 'hot phase' of the war. In related developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia used 339 drones in overnight attacks on Ukraine. These attacks resulted in the deaths of two women in a civilian car in the Kherson region. Zelenskyy also mentioned that he would be holding a video call with US envoys to discuss stalled negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have been reported to have crossed into the airspace of several countries, including Estonia, Finland, and Latvia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha clarified that Ukraine never aimed drones at these countries.

The United States is expanding its military footprint in the Gulf as the US‑Israel war with Iran enters its second month. Since the Feb. 28 launch of Operation Epic Fury, a joint air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, more than four weeks of strikes have resulted in thousands of casualties.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is currently conducting daily combat sorties from the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald Ford, now under maintenance in Croatia.These carrier groups carry thousands of sailors, Marines and specialised support personnel, forming the core of the US’s power projection in the region.Carrier Strike Group (CSG) refers to an aircraft carrier plus its escort ships and support units that together function as a floating base. A typical CSG includes:An aircraft carrier60‑75 fighter jets and helicopters2‑4 Arleigh Burke‑class destroyersA guided‑missile cruiserA submarine for underwater protectionSupply shipsAs of April 1, the USS Abraham Lincoln remains the only carrier launching daily combat missions against Iranian targets, while the USS George HW Bush is en route and expected to eventually replace the Gerald Ford in the Mediterranean.Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) operates as a mini‑carrier, carrying US Marines and equipment for sea‑to‑land invasions. The USS Tripoli ARG arrived in the Middle East on March 27, and the USS Boxer ARG is expected to join the theater by mid‑April. An ARG typically comprises:Three specialised ships~2,200 Marines (a Marine Expeditionary Unit)Short‑takeoff aircraftLanding craft for beach assaultsThe key distinction: ARGs are built to land troops on shore, whereas CSGs are designed to project air power and conduct major naval warfare.A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a rapid‑response, self‑contained force of 2,200‑2,500 Marine Corps personnel capable of combat and humanitarian missions. On Friday, US Central Command confirmed that 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU arrived in Middle Eastern waters after departing Sasebo, Japan, on March 13. A second unit, the 11th MEU with roughly 2,500 Marines, is inbound after leaving San Diego on March 18.The Pentagon has also ordered about 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to move to the region, adding to the approximately 50,000 US troops already stationed in the Middle East.An MEU is organized into four elements:Command Element – ~200 personnel for planning and command‑and‑control.Ground Combat Element – ~1,200 troops centered on an infantry battalion with artillery and armoured vehicles.Aviation Combat Element – ~500 personnel operating transport helicopters, attack aircraft and Osprey tilt‑rotors.Logistics Combat Element – ~300 personnel providing up to 15 days of self‑sustainment, including medical, engineering and maintenance support.MEUs are typically deployed aboard a three‑ship ARG, which serves as a floating base. The ships include:Landing Helicopter Assault/Dock – a small carrier carrying short‑takeoff aircraft such as F‑35Bs and attack helicopters.Amphibious Transport Dock – a mid‑size vessel transporting troops and heavy vehicles.Dock Landing Ship – primarily for cargo and heavy equipment.MEUs can execute sea‑to‑land assaults, raids, evacuations, humanitarian aid and disaster‑relief operations, and they are often the first forces on the ground in emerging conflicts.The US Marine Corps maintains seven active MEUs; the 31st (Asia‑Pacific) and 11th (West Coast) are currently assigned to the Iran war. The other units are distributed as follows:East Coast: 22nd, 24th, 26th MEUWest Coast: 11th, 13th, 15th MEUAsia‑Pacific: 31st MEUTypically, three MEUs are forward‑positioned at any time, rotating through deployments in the Mediterranean, Gulf and Asia‑Pacific regions.Historically, MEUs have played pivotal roles in US operations: during the 2001 Afghanistan invasion, the 15th and 26th MEUs conducted one of the longest amphibious vertical insertions; in 2003‑2004 they helped secure Iraqi ports and fought in Fallujah; and in 2024 they provided sea‑based support for the attempted abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Seven civilians were killed in Israeli attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs on April 1, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health. The strike on the Jnah district killed five people and injured 21, while a separate raid on the town of Khaldeh resulted in two deaths and three injuries.Israeli officials said the operation aimed to eliminate a senior Hezbollah commander, though the militant group has neither confirmed nor denied the target. Security sources described the Jnah strike as a targeted assassination of vehicles rather than an apartment block, noting that many cars were parked near a school sheltering displaced residents.Hezbollah, meanwhile, reported cross‑border attacks and “fierce clashes” with Israeli soldiers near the border town of Shamaa, roughly 5 km from the frontier. The group also claimed to have fired more than 40 rockets toward northern Israel and engaged Israeli troops in other sectors.Since the latest escalation, at least ten Israeli soldiers have been reported killed, and three UN peacekeepers from UNIFIL lost their lives in southern Lebanon, prompting an investigation.The humanitarian toll continues to rise: Lebanon’s Health Ministry cites a death count of over 1,200 and notes that more than one million people have been displaced by the conflict.In Jerusalem, far‑right ministers are urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex southern Lebanon, while the prime minister has ordered the army to expand the ground invasion to fundamentally alter the security situation in Israel’s north.Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that homes in Lebanese border villages would be demolished and that the estimated 600,000 displaced residents would not be allowed to return until Israel deems the area secure, fueling fears of a prolonged occupation.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently banned Hezbollah’s military activities and called on the national army to prevent attacks from Lebanese territory. However, the Iran‑aligned militia, which operates independently of the Lebanese government, has refused to disarm and insists on repelling Israeli advances.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that he has exchanged messages with Steve Witkoff, the senior envoy appointed by President Donald Trump, but stressed that these contacts do not constitute formal negotiations. "I receive messages from Witkoff directly, as before, and this does not mean that we are in negotiations," Araghchi said, adding that all communications are routed through the Foreign Ministry and security agencies. The minister highlighted Iran’s historic mistrust of US diplomatic overtures, recalling Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and two recent attacks on Iranian territory during ongoing talks. Araghchi noted that Pakistan has been facilitating the recent exchanges and has also hosted regional discussions involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to build momentum for direct Iran‑US dialogue. Additionally, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing to seek Chinese backing for these efforts. Regarding the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi asserted that the waterway falls under the joint jurisdiction of Iran and Oman. He said that once hostilities cease, the two nations will decide its future, emphasizing that the strait should remain a "peaceful waterway." While acknowledging that Gulf states such as Qatar want a seat at the table, Araghchi maintained that the strait is open to commercial vessels from all nations except those actively at war with Iran, which is a standard wartime measure. He also mentioned that ships from India, Pakistan, Turkey and China have already negotiated transit through the strait, underscoring its continued commercial relevance. On the prospect of a US ground invasion, Araghchi warned that Iran is fully prepared to confront any such move. "We are waiting for them," he said, adding that Iranian forces possess the strength to repel a land assault and that the United States would be making a grave mistake by attempting one. These statements come as the Trump administration reportedly increases troop deployments in the Gulf and explores contingency plans for a possible invasion of Iran.

In a recent interview published by the Free Press, former UK prime minister Tony Blair asserted that the British left has entered an “unholy alliance” with Islamist groups, framing criticism of Israel’s Gaza operations as a new form of anti‑semitism. He further praised former President Donald Trump’s proposed plan for Gaza, describing it as “bold and intelligent.”The commentary arrives amid a sharp decline in British public support for Israel. A YouGov poll found that only 12 % of respondents back Israel’s actions in Gaza, while a clear majority favor measures such as an arms embargo, sanctions, and even the prosecution of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes.Blair’s allegation that the left “casts the Jewish community as supporters of the Israeli government” is challenged by evidence of a broader shift in public sentiment. The Greens, now a leading force on the English left, oppose the Gaza offensive and reject Islamophobia, yet they are led by a Jewish gay politician and champion a socially progressive agenda that includes LGBTQ+ rights and gender equality—hardly the hallmarks of “Islamism.”Data on American Jewry is also invoked. While 71 % of Jewish Americans voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, a separate poll indicated that 40 % of Jewish respondents believe Israel’s military actions amount to genocide, a figure rising to half among those under 35. These figures illustrate that criticism of Israel does not automatically equate to anti‑semitic sentiment.The piece also revisits Blair’s own controversial foreign‑policy record. His government approved extensive arms sales to Saudi Arabia and shut down investigations into those deals, while his post‑premiership institute continued to receive substantial Saudi funding even after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Moreover, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, led by Blair, is widely regarded as having provided a recruitment boost to Islamist extremist groups.Critics argue that Blair’s narrative is a strategic attempt to deflect growing Western criticism of Israel by painting opponents as extremist sympathizers. The term “Islamo‑gauchisme,” used in France to describe similar accusations, exemplifies a broader pattern of demonising Muslim participation in democratic politics.In sum, the article contends that Blair’s claim lacks substantive evidence, overlooks prevailing public opinion, and mirrors past tactics of smearing dissenting voices. As the debate over Israel’s conduct in Gaza intensifies, the left’s opposition appears rooted in humanitarian concerns rather than any covert Islamist agenda.

BP's new chief executive, Meg O'Neill, has told staff that the oil giant is operating in a world of significant complexity, marked by geopolitical tensions, conflict, rapid technological change, and shifting global energy demand. In her first message to employees, O'Neill promised a clear direction and consistency after a tumultuous period for the 117-year-old fossil fuel company. This period has seen BP pivot away from a failing green strategy and experience leadership changes. O'Neill, BP's third CEO in under five years, takes the helm during a critical time, with the ongoing Iran war triggering the global industry's biggest supply shock. She emphasized the company's role in delivering energy safely, reliably, and efficiently. The company previously aimed to cut its oil production this decade, which put BP at a financial disadvantage compared to other large oil companies like Shell when wholesale prices surged after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. O'Neill is expected to focus on making disciplined investments in new fossil fuel projects to revive BP's market value. This strategy comes as the Iran war has driven oil prices to near $118 a barrel and gas prices are at historic highs across Asia and Europe. BP's share price has reached an almost 16-year high amid the current geopolitical tensions. However, it saw a nearly 3.5% slump on Wednesday as Brent crude prices fell below $100 a barrel. In her memo, O'Neill expressed her excitement about BP's next chapter, highlighting the company's strength, remarkable people, and world-class assets. She emphasized BP's vital role in supplying energy to customers worldwide, underpinning economic growth and human development.

Beirut, Lebanon – On 24 March, Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi announced that Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, was declared persona non grata and ordered to depart by 29 March. Two days after the deadline, the envoy remained in Beirut, refusing to leave. The episode unfolds against a broader conflict that has already claimed more than 1,000 lives and displaced over 1.2 million people within a single month of Israeli military action in Lebanon. It also highlights a deepening schism in Lebanese politics between supporters of the pro‑Iranian Shia militia Hezbollah and those demanding its disarmament. Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, told Al Jazeera that the ambassador’s defiance is a symptom of a larger contest over legitimacy and authority. IRGC’s Strategic Role Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped forge Hezbollah in 1982 as a response to Israel’s invasion. Over the decades, Tehran’s billions of dollars in funding elevated Hezbollah to Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force. Hezbollah’s popularity peaked in 2000 after driving Israeli forces from south Lebanon, but subsequent engagements—including the 2006 war, the 2008 Beirut street battles, the Syrian civil war, and the 2019 domestic protests—have eroded its broader support. When Hezbollah entered open conflict with Israel on 8 October 2023, it enjoyed limited backing beyond the Shia community. By the November 2024 cease‑fire, the group was at a low point, with Israel having killed more than 4,000 Lebanese, including leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s command. International pressure then mounted for Hezbollah’s disarmament, prompting Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun to prioritize the issue. According to several analysts, the IRGC exploited the cease‑fire lull to dispatch officials to Lebanon, restructuring Hezbollah’s command and possibly ordering its re‑entry into the war on 2 March—just days after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated. Prime Minister Salam has publicly claimed the IRGC is “managing the military operation in Lebanon” and even accused Tehran of launching an attack on Cyprus. Ambassador Refuses to Exit In response to the perceived IRGC influence, Raggi’s declaration stripped Sheibani of diplomatic immunity. Dania Arayssi, senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, described the move as a “landmark decision” given Iran’s entrenched role in Lebanese politics. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, however, maintains that Sheibani will not depart, and Hezbollah has openly pledged to protect him, warning that any government attempt to disarm the militia will be met with “punishment.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—longtime Hezbollah ally—initially backed the government’s ban on Hezbollah’s military activity after the March re‑entry, illustrating the fluidity of alliances within Lebanon’s power‑sharing system. State Authority Tested Hezbollah’s renewed campaign, which includes dozens of cross‑border attacks and direct engagements with Israeli forces on Lebanese soil, is reshaping the political calculus. The militia’s revived confidence challenges the Lebanese government’s ability to enforce disarmament. While the ambassador remains protected inside the Iranian diplomatic compound—effectively beyond the reach of Lebanese law—critics argue that Tehran’s refusal to honor the expulsion order undermines the state’s authority, already weakened by months of war. Salamey summed up the dilemma: “The state is asserting its authority on paper, but internal divisions and competing claims of legitimacy constrain its practical power, testing the limits of Lebanon’s fragile power‑sharing arrangement.”

The Israeli military has confirmed that four soldiers were killed in combat in southern Lebanon, where its forces are engaged in clashes with Hezbollah fighters following a ground invasion.In a statement, the army named three soldiers from the same battalion who 'fell during combat'. A separate statement confirmed another soldier's death in the same incident, with two others wounded.This brings the total number of Israeli soldiers reported killed since fighting began on March 2 to ten, following a US-Israeli joint attack on Iran. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health reports that over 1,200 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon, with more than a million displaced.The escalation comes after the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported that two peacekeepers were killed in an explosion near the southern Lebanese village of Bani Haiyyan. Another peacekeeper was killed by a projectile on Sunday.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the military to expand its invasion in southern Lebanon, aiming to extend a 'buffer zone' to the Litani River. Israel's far-right ministers have urged Netanyahu to annex southern Lebanon, as the military destroys infrastructure to isolate the area.Al Jazeera's Lebanon correspondent, Zeina Khodr, reported that Monday night marked a new escalation as Israel opened a new front in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, targeting strategic supply lines for Hezbollah. Khodr noted that Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem acknowledged the imbalance of power but vowed to make the war 'costly' for Israel.The conflict in Lebanon is part of the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, which has resulted in over 1,340 deaths since February 28. Netanyahu has reportedly told US officials that any future agreement between the US and Tehran will not stop Israel's actions in Lebanon.