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The United States has publicly acknowledged that its efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence are lagging behind initial expectations, a candid admission that underscores mounting challenges in a conflict that has stretched diplomatic, economic, and military tools to their limits.Key DevelopmentsSenior Pentagon officials stated the US is "pretty far behind" where it started in the war on Iran.Recent Iranian missile tests and proxy attacks have intensified, prompting calls for a recalibrated US response.Congressional hearings this week revealed gaps in intelligence sharing and procurement delays for advanced defense systems.Sanctions enforcement has faced loopholes, with several Iranian entities circumventing restrictions via third‑party jurisdictions.Data & Market ImpactUS defense spending on Middle‑East operations rose 12% in FY 2025, reaching $18.3 billion, yet procurement timelines slipped by an average of 8 months for key platforms.Oil prices have fluctuated within a $3‑$5 per barrel range since the admission, reflecting investor uncertainty over supply‑chain stability in the Gulf.Regional stock indices, notably the Saudi Tadawul, fell 1.4% following the statement, indicating market sensitivity to perceived US strategic weakness.Why This MattersRegional security: A delayed US response may embolden Iran to expand its proxy networks in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, altering the balance of power.Energy markets: Uncertainty around US commitment could trigger volatility in global oil supplies, affecting economies from Pakistan to Europe.Allied confidence: NATO and Gulf Cooperation Council partners rely on US leadership; perceived lag undermines joint deterrence frameworks.Expert InsightAnalysts attribute the lag to three intertwined factors: (1) bureaucratic inertia within the Department of Defense, which has struggled to integrate new cyber‑warfare capabilities; (2) diplomatic fatigue, as successive administrations have oscillated between engagement and containment, leaving a fragmented policy; and (3) sanctions evasion tactics that exploit loopholes in the global financial system, diluting the economic pressure on Tehran. The convergence of these issues suggests that without a unified strategy—combining rapid procurement, robust intelligence, and coordinated sanctions—the US risks ceding influence to Iran’s regional allies.What Happens NextCongress is expected to introduce a supplemental defense bill aimed at accelerating acquisition of next‑generation missile defense systems.The State Department may pursue a multilateral sanctions framework with the EU and Gulf states to close existing loopholes.Military planners are likely to increase joint exercises with regional partners to demonstrate resolve and improve interoperability.Watch for a potential diplomatic overture in the coming months, as Washington seeks to balance pressure with back‑channel negotiations to prevent escalation.

Political Vacuum in Iraq: Five Months Without a Government More than five months after parliamentary elections, Iraq's Coordination Framework - the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties - has failed to choose its prime ministerial candidate amid intense internal power struggles. The country faces a constitutional deadline of April 26 to form a government while balancing delicate diplomatic ties between the United States and Iran, both of whom exert significant influence over Iraqi politics. The Power Struggle Within Iraq's Shia Bloc The Coordination Framework, which commands approximately 185 of 329 seats in parliament, is locked in a battle between incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who seeks a second term, and the bloc led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - a pro-Iran figure whose candidacy is opposed by the United States. The Framework's general secretariat has called a meeting with a single agenda item: selecting the prime ministerial candidate, as previous meetings were postponed due to disagreements among leaders. The Iranian and American Mediation Efforts Iran's Quds Force head, Ismail Qaani, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad aimed at breaking the leadership deadlock. The visit came at the request of caretaker Prime Minister al-Sudani to convince the Shia Coordination Framework not to nominate Bassem al-Badri, who is aligned with Maliki. Meanwhile, the US has explicitly opposed al-Maliki's candidacy, with President Trump threatening to halt support for Iraq if he's elected, citing concerns about Iran's influence through his leadership. Economic Pressures and Constitutional Deadlines Iraq faces mounting economic challenges with customs tariffs reaching as high as 30% on some goods, a reinstated 20% sales tax on mobile phone recharge cards, and over 90 trillion dinars ($69 billion) in debt. The country's state budget remains dependent on oil for roughly 90% of revenues, all while being without a fully functioning government for over five months. Adding to the pressure, a US presidential executive order protecting Iraqi oil revenues at the Federal Reserve Bank is set to expire in May, potentially exposing those assets to creditors. Regional Power Dynamics and Iraqi Sovereignty The political crisis in Iraq reflects the broader regional power struggle between the United States and Iran. Pro-Iranian armed groups have carried out attacks on US assets in solidarity with Tehran during the US-Israel war on Iran, while the US has designated seven militia commanders from Iran-aligned factions. This delicate balancing act has exposed Iraq's vulnerability to external influences and raised questions about the country's sovereignty as political actors appear to be waiting for the outcome of regional conflicts to determine the next government. Sectarian Divisions and Power-Sharing System The political appointments highlight Iraq's persistent sectarian and ethnic divisions under the power-sharing system (Muhasasa) established after the 2003 US-led invasion. With the presidency now filled by Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi, the speakership reserved for Sunni Arabs, and the prime minister position designated for Shia Arabs, the formation of a government remains critical to maintaining this delicate balance. The prolonged vacuum risks exacerbating existing tensions and potentially destabilizing the country's fragile democratic institutions. Path Forward: Weak Prime Minister or Strong Leadership? As the April 26 deadline approaches, the Coordination Framework appears to be leaning toward selecting a weaker prime minister candidate like Bassem al-Badri who would not challenge the bloc's authority, rather than stronger figures like al-Sudani or al-Maliki. However, the final outcome may depend on the results of negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the regional conflict. Regardless of who is chosen, the next Iraqi government will face the monumental task of addressing economic crises, rebuilding international relations, and asserting greater independence from external influences while navigating the complex regional power dynamics.

The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.

Background: Fuel Price ShockGeopolitical tensions from the US‑Israel war on Iran have pushed national gasoline averages from $2.98 at the end of February to above $4 per gallon—a rise of roughly $1.02, or a 34% increase. This surge translates into a substantial cost burden for rideshare drivers who must purchase fuel themselves.Driver ImpactJohn Mejia (Lyft/Uber driver, Oakland) reports his weekly fuel bill climbing from $36 to $60, a 66% jump that forces him to cut mileage.Prisell Polanco (Boston) says he now spends an extra $300 per month on gasoline with no corresponding fare increase.Drivers in Chicago, Los Angeles, and other markets echo similar figures, noting full‑tank costs rising from $55 to over $75.Because drivers are classified as independent contractors, they bear all vehicle‑related expenses—fuel, maintenance, leasing or purchase—directly out of their earnings.Company ResponseBoth platforms have rolled out expanded discount and cashback programs:Uber claims top‑tier drivers can save up to $1.44 per gallon using the Uber Pro debit card and other rewards.Lyft offers similar savings through the Lyft Direct debit card, highlighted by VP of Driver Operations Yuko Yamazaki.Drivers describe these measures as “hollow” and a “slap in the face,” noting that even the previous 50¢ per ride surcharge introduced in 2022 was insufficient.Economic ImplicationsThe added fuel cost erodes driver net earnings by an estimated 15‑20% for many full‑time contractors, compelling them to either:Increase daily driving hours (often to 12‑14 hours) to maintain pre‑spike income.Seek supplementary gigs or reduce overall ride volume, which can diminish platform supply and affect rider wait times.If gasoline remains above $4 for an extended period, the cumulative monthly shortfall could exceed $500 per driver, potentially accelerating driver attrition and prompting regulatory scrutiny of gig‑economy labor models.

On April 18, 2026, a French UNIFIL soldier was killed and three wounded in an attack near Ghandouriyeh, southern Lebanon, which French and UN officials attribute to Hezbollah. The incident occurred as the peacekeeping patrol was attempting to open a route to an isolated UN post. UNIFIL said the assault appeared to be carried out by non‑state actors and launched an investigation into what it termed “a deliberate attack.” French Armed Forces Minister Catherine Vautrin confirmed the patrol was ambushed and the fatality resulted from direct small‑arms fire. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the "unacceptable attack" in calls with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, urging the Lebanese government to act against those responsible. Hezbollah denied involvement, urging caution in assigning blame. Lebanon’s army also condemned the shooting and opened its own probe, while President Aoun offered condolences and ordered an immediate investigation. The attack comes just days after a 10‑day Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire took effect and amid a broader U.S.–Israel war on Iran that is nearing its truce deadline. Since early March, Lebanon has been drawn into the regional conflict after Hezbollah fired rockets toward Israel in response to the U.S.–Israeli killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israel’s subsequent bombing campaign and ground invasion have caused over 2,000 deaths and displaced more than 1.2 million people. UN Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres has repeatedly called on all parties to respect international law and safeguard UN personnel, noting that incidents like the Ghandouriyeh ambush “jeopardize the safety and security of peacekeepers.”

Iran has reclosed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, in retaliation to the United States' ongoing blockade of Iranian ports. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on Saturday that control of the strait had 'returned to its previous state,' with Iranian gunboats reportedly firing at a merchant vessel attempting to cross.The strait's closure comes after a brief reopening, during which over a dozen commercial ships passed through. This development has cast doubt on US President Donald Trump's optimism about a potential peace deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran, which Trump claimed was 'very close.'The IRGC statement emphasized that the blockade represented 'acts of piracy and maritime theft,' and warned that the strait would remain under strict control until the US restores full freedom of navigation for Iranian vessels. Oil prices have been impacted, with at least eight oil and gas tankers crossing the strait by 10:30 GMT, while several others turned back.The situation has created uncertainty for maritime shipping, with specialist John-Paul Rodrigue noting that contradictory information from all parties has deterred many vessels from crossing. Al Jazeera's Tohid Asadi reported from Tehran that Iran seeks a comprehensive end to the regional war, including security assurances, sanctions relief, and a resolution to its nuclear dossier.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" for commercial traffic, aligning the decision with the newly‑instated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. President Donald Trump echoed the statement on social media, insisting the waterway is ready for business but also stressing that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in full force until a comprehensive agreement is reached. In Paris, France and the United Kingdom convened a summit of roughly 40 countries to discuss a coordinated effort to restore freedom of navigation in the strait once the broader U.S.–Iran conflict subsides. The strait channels about 20 % of the world’s daily crude oil flow; its blockage had previously pushed fuel prices upward worldwide. The latest announcement prompted an immediate plunge in oil prices, offering a brief reprieve for markets. United States: Trump posted on Truth Social that the strait is "completely open and ready for business," yet reiterated that the blockade will stay in effect "until our transaction with Iran is 100 % complete." He later told AFP the deal to end the war on Iran is "close" with "no sticking points" remaining. Iran: Araghchi shared the opening on X, tying it to the 10‑day ceasefire. However, later state media quoted a senior IRGC official saying only non‑military vessels would be permitted, subject to IRGC Navy approval, highlighting internal ambiguity. United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer co‑hosted the Paris summit with French President Emmanuel Macron, welcoming the reopening but urging that any solution be "lasting and workable." He pledged a "strictly peaceful and defensive" multinational mission to protect navigation when conditions allow. France: Macron called for an "immediate and unconditional" reopening by all parties and warned against any attempts to "privatise" the strait or impose tolls. His office outlined potential coalition roles, including intelligence, mine‑clearing, military escorts, and communication with coastal states. Germany: Chancellor Friedrich Merz offered German mine‑clearance and intelligence support, pending parliamentary approval and a UN Security Council mandate. He expressed a desire for U.S. participation, a request Trump publicly dismissed. Finland: President Alexander Stubb, attending the summit, praised Iran’s announcement but emphasized that durable solutions require diplomatic effort. United Nations: Secretary‑General António Guterres welcomed the opening as "a step in the right direction," while the International Maritime Organization began verifying compliance with freedom‑of‑navigation standards. Shipping industry: The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association, representing 130 firms and 1,500 vessels, called the development welcome but said practical details—such as mine presence and Iranian conditions—must be clarified. Germany’s Hapag‑Lloyd and Denmark’s Maersk both indicated they are reassessing risks but remain cautious about immediate transits. Markets: Analysts noted the announcement’s swift impact on oil markets. "This is the biggest development so far during the ceasefire and gives hope that the war will end soon," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

Celebrations erupted in Lebanon after a 10‑day ceasefire took effect, with the U.S. State Department noting that the pause opens a window for longer‑term negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese officials.President Donald Trump declared that an agreement to end the war on Iran is "very close," hinting that the next round of talks could occur this weekend in Islamabad. Iran’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the truce, describing it as part of a broader effort with Washington to pause the regional conflict.Tehran‑based analyst Abas Aslani acknowledged progress in the U.S.–Iran dialogue but warned that significant gaps remain, noting that both sides are preparing for either a negotiated settlement or a possible return to hostilities, while Trump appears to be seeking an “off‑ramp” from the war.Trump also expressed hope that Hezbollah would "act nicely and well" during the truce and announced a White House invitation for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.Speaking in Las Vegas, Trump dismissed warnings that the conflict could push oil prices to $300 a barrel, insisting that markets remain strong despite volatility and global fuel disruptions linked to the war.Netanyahu hailed the ceasefire as an opportunity for a historic peace agreement with Beirut, but reiterated that the disarmament of Hezbollah remains a non‑negotiable precondition.Hours before the truce began, an Israeli strike on the southern Lebanese town of Ghaziyeh killed at least seven civilians and wounded 33, intensifying Israeli public frustration over promises of a buffer zone in the north.Opposition leader Yair Lapid condemned the ceasefire, arguing it fails to remove the threat to northern communities and pledging that any future government would adopt a tougher stance.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam welcomed the truce, and Trump confirmed that the agreement also encompasses Iran‑backed Hezbollah.Analyst Rami Khouri noted that Hezbollah is central to the ceasefire but operates “behind a curtain,” while residents in Sidon remain anxious as Israel demands Hezbollah’s disarmament yet refuses to withdraw, leaving the truce fragile and far from permanent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.1%, citing the impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz on the world economy. In a worst-case scenario of a prolonged war, global growth could fall to 2.5% in 2026, with low-income and developing economies hit the hardest by soaring commodity and energy prices. However, some industries are benefiting from the uncertainty: Wall Street Investment Banks Wall Street investment banks are thriving due to increased trading activity, with Morgan Stanley reporting a profit of $5.57bn, up 29% year on year, and Goldman Sachs reporting a profit of $5.63bn, up 19% year on year. Aerospace and Defence The aerospace and defence industries are booming due to increased global defence spending, with the MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index reporting net returns of 32% year on year. Artificial Intelligence The AI industry is expected to grow from $189bn in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company posting a net income of $18.1bn for the first three months of 2026, up 58% year on year. Renewable Energy The renewable energy sector is also benefiting from the war, with 150 countries having active policies to advance renewable and nuclear deployment, and the S&P; Global Clean Energy Transition Index up 70.92% year on year.