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When President Donald Trump inaugurated Operation Epic Fury with Israel on 28 February, his administration outlined broad goals: neutralise Iran’s missile programme, cripple its navy and prevent a nuclear breakout. Within a month those objectives morphed, expanded and at times directly contradicted each other. On 29 March, aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters that Iran had accepted most of Washington’s 15‑point demand list, conveyed through Pakistan, and even shipped oil to the United States as a goodwill gesture. In the same interview he floated the idea of seizing Kharg Island—the hub for 90 % of Iran’s oil exports—stating, “maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.” The following day, 30 March, Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States was in “serious discussions with a new, more reasonable regime” in Tehran and claimed “great progress.” He simultaneously warned that, absent a swift deal, the U.S. would destroy Iran’s power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and even its desalination facilities, and would force the Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately. By 31 March, with U.S. gasoline prices climbing above $4 per gallon, Trump hinted at a rapid withdrawal, saying the U.S. would leave Iran “within two or three weeks.” He told European allies that if they needed oil or gas they could “go up through the Hormuz Strait” on their own, and rebuked the United Kingdom for not standing up for itself. On 1 April, Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran’s new leadership had requested a U.S. cease‑fire, but only after the Hormuz Strait was “open, free, and clear.” He reiterated that the war was “not about oil,” yet threatened to blast Iran’s electric grid “back to the stone ages.” Iran’s foreign ministry dismissed the cease‑fire request as “false and baseless,” and the Revolutionary Guard warned the strait remained under its control. Following a U.S.–Israeli strike that demolished a bridge between Tehran and Karaj on 2 April, Trump posted that the next targets would be “bridges, then electric power plants,” signalling an escalation despite earlier talk of withdrawal. Finally, on 3 April, he suggested that reopening Hormuz and seizing Iranian oil could become a “gusher for the world,” a stark reversal of his earlier assertion that the conflict had nothing to do with oil. These rapid shifts illustrate a pattern of policy flip‑flopping that complicates diplomatic efforts, fuels market uncertainty, and raises questions about the strategic coherence of the U.S. approach to the Iran war.

AI‑Driven Power Race The AI boom is prompting the biggest wave of power‑infrastructure investment since the early days of cloud computing. Companies are scrambling to lock in natural‑gas supplies and build on‑site generators, a move that could reshape electricity markets in the southern United States. Scale of the Projects Microsoft is partnering with Chevron and Engine No. 1 to construct a natural‑gas plant in West Texas that could reach 5 GW of capacity. Google has confirmed a collaboration with Crusoe for a 933 MW plant in North Texas. Meta is adding seven more plants to its Hyperion data‑center complex in Louisiana, bringing total on‑site capacity to 7.46 GW—enough, the company notes, to power the entire state of South Dakota. Combined, these projects exceed 13 GW, roughly equivalent to the average electricity demand of a mid‑size U.S. state. Supply Constraints and Cost Pressures Wood Mackenzie warns that turbine prices have surged 195% versus 2019 levels. If a 2020 turbine cost $1 million, the same unit now costs about $2.95 million, inflating the equipment share of a plant’s budget from 20% to up to 30%. The consultancy also notes a six‑year lead time for turbine delivery, meaning new orders cannot be placed until 2028. This bottleneck could delay the rollout of additional capacity precisely when AI workloads are accelerating. Resource Availability and Market Risks The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that a single gas‑rich region holds enough supply to power the entire United States for 10 months. While abundant, production growth in the three leading shale basins—responsible for three‑quarters of U.S. output—has slowed, tightening the long‑term outlook. Natural gas accounts for about 40% of U.S. electricity generation (EIA). Consequently, any spike in gas prices reverberates through wholesale electricity markets, raising the cost of power for all consumers, not just data‑center operators. Strategic Risks for Tech Companies Behind‑the‑meter gas plants allow firms to claim “self‑supply,” but they merely shift demand from the public grid to the gas grid, potentially driving up wholesale gas prices. Industrial users—petrochemical plants, fertilizer manufacturers—cannot easily substitute gas with renewables, so they may push back against large‑scale data‑center consumption. Extreme weather, such as the 2021 Texas freeze, can curtail wellhead output, forcing a choice between keeping AI workloads online or supplying heat to households. In sum, the AI‑driven rush for natural‑gas power plants highlights a fundamental physical constraint: the digital economy still depends on finite, market‑sensitive energy resources. Betting heavily on a commodity that can swing dramatically in price may prove costly if AI growth plateaus or if gas supply tightens.

Iran has released footage of US aircraft conducting a search operation for pilots who were shot down in Iranian airspace. The videos, obtained by Iranian authorities, provide a glimpse into the search efforts undertaken by the US military.The release of these videos comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, with both countries engaging in a delicate diplomatic dance. The incident highlights the complexities of military interactions between nations and the importance of transparency in such situations.

More than 100 United States‑based international law scholars have signed an open letter denouncing the recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran as a violation of the United Nations Charter and potentially amounting to war crimes. The letter, released on Thursday, asserts that the campaign – launched on February 28 – proceeded without UN Security Council authorization and without credible evidence of an imminent Iranian threat. According to the scholars, the legal basis for force against another state exists only in self‑defence against an actual or imminent armed attack, or when expressly sanctioned by the Security Council. Iran has not attacked the United States or Israel, and the Security Council did not approve the operation. The experts organize their concerns into four categories: the legality of the war decision, the conduct of hostilities, threatening rhetoric from senior officials, and what they describe as the dismantling of civilian‑protection safeguards within the US defence establishment under Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s “gloves‑off” approach. Among the most alarming incidents highlighted is the strike on a primary school in Minab, Iran on the first day of the conflict, which killed at least 175 people, the majority of them children. The letter also cites attacks on hospitals, water treatment facilities, and energy infrastructure, emphasizing that schools, health facilities, and homes have been targeted. The signatories condemn public statements by senior US officials, including a mid‑March remark by former President Donald Trump that the United States might strike Iran “just for fun,” and early‑March comments from Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth dismissing “stupid rules of engagement.” They argue that such rhetoric reflects an “alarming disrespect” for international humanitarian law, which is designed to protect civilians and combatants alike. Financially, the letter notes that the war is costing US taxpayers up to $2 billion per day, underscoring the broader economic burden of the conflict. The open letter was co‑authored by prominent legal scholars such as Yale Law School’s Oona Hathaway, former State Department legal adviser Harold Koh, NYU’s Philip Alston, and former Human Rights Watch chief Kenneth Roth. While the authors focus on the United States’ conduct, they warn of a heightened risk of atrocities throughout the region. Emphasizing the need for consistent application of international law, the scholars write: “We urge US government officials to uphold the UN Charter, international humanitarian law, and human rights law at all times, and to publicly make clear US commitment to and respect for norms of international law.”

US President Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric against Iran, suggesting that the United States aims to seize the country's oil industry. In a recent social media post, Trump stated that with more time, the US can 'easily open the Hormuz Strait, take the oil, and make a fortune.' This assertion marks a significant escalation in his statements regarding Iran. The strategic Hormuz Strait, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has been effectively blocked by Iran early in the conflict, leading to a surge in energy prices. Trump's comments come as the US and Israel continue their military campaign against Iran, with the war now entering its sixth week. Under international law, specifically the doctrine of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1962, oil and minerals are considered to belong to the countries where they are located. Trump's repeated calls for 'taking the oil' in countries involved in US military actions, including Iraq and Venezuela, have been controversial. Despite the assassinations of top Iranian officials and daily bombardments by the US and Israel, the Iranian government remains in control of the country's natural resources. The US has no publicly known military presence on the ground in Iran, and Trump did not provide details on how his administration plans to control Iran's oil. Trump's suggestion that replicating the Venezuelan model in Iran is possible but would require prolonging the war has sparked concerns. He expressed a preference for taking Iran's oil but noted that the US public may not have the patience for a prolonged conflict. Legal experts have criticized Trump's threats to bomb civilian infrastructure, including power stations and water desalination plants, as potential war crimes under international law. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson has likened the US attacks to ISIS tactics, highlighting the devastating impact on civilian populations.

Iranian military units have launched a coordinated search for the two pilots of a United States F‑15 fighter jet that was struck by an Iranian air‑defence system over the country's southwest region. The operation, reported by the state‑run Fars news agency, is the first documented crew‑recovery effort since the US‑Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February. State media released images showing the aircraft's wreckage, including an ejection seat attached to a parachute, underscoring the seriousness of the incident. Reuters cited two U.S. officials confirming that a fighter jet was downed and that a search‑and‑rescue mission is underway for any survivors. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf used the event to mock President Donald Trump’s repeated claims of victory, posting on social media that the conflict had been reduced from "regime change" to a plea for the location of the pilots. According to Iranian reports, the downed aircraft was an F‑15 likely crewed by two pilots. The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) have not issued an immediate comment, a pattern consistent with past Iranian claims that CENTCOM swiftly denied. Local Iranian television broadcast footage of the jet's debris, and officials appealed to civilians to remain vigilant for any survivors. The governor of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province announced that anyone who captures the crew would receive special commendation, as relayed by the semi‑official ISNA news agency. U.S. lawmakers responded with statements of support. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted on X, "I’m praying for the safe return of the crew aboard the fighter jet and all of those working to rescue them in these dangerous conditions." Since the war's onset, the United States has reported the loss of three F‑15s in a friendly‑fire incident over Kuwait and a refuelling aircraft that crashed in Iraq, killing six crew members. Iran, meanwhile, claims to have downed dozens of U.S. drones and continues to assert that its new air‑defence system, introduced after the 12‑day war, remains operational. While President Trump and his advisers repeatedly assert that the United States has neutralised Iran’s air‑defences, the downing of the jet and the ensuing search highlight the ongoing volatility of the conflict.

A Malta‑flagged container ship named Kribi, owned by French shipping giant CMA CGM, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on April 2. This marks the first time a Western‑registered vessel has traversed the strategic waterway since Iran began restricting traffic following the US‑Israeli war that started on February 28.According to vessel‑tracking data from Marine Traffic, the Kribi is the first French‑owned ship to make the passage in the current conflict. The ship, sailing south along Oman’s coast, altered its declared destination to “Owner France” in LSEG shipping data, a move interpreted as a signal to Iranian authorities about its national affiliation before entering Iran’s territorial waters.The vessel was originally bound for Pointe‑Noire, Republic of the Congo, but the change in routing facilitated the safe crossing. No immediate comment was received from CMA CGM regarding the maneuver.Since March 1, only about 150 vessels—including tankers and container ships—have transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. The majority were linked to Iran and to regional partners such as China, India and Pakistan. Beijing publicly expressed gratitude after three Chinese ships, including two Cosco‑owned container vessels, passed through the waterway earlier in the week.The strait historically carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Its effective blockage has contributed to a sharp rise in worldwide fuel prices, intensifying the ongoing energy crisis.U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that gasoline prices would drop quickly once hostilities end, but offered no concrete plan to reopen the passage, instead urging skeptical allies to take action themselves. French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned that a military operation to force open the strait would be unrealistic, emphasizing that only diplomatic efforts could restore free navigation.Macron is coordinating with European and other partners to form a coalition that would guarantee safe passage after the conflict subsides. In a commentary for *Foreign Affairs*, former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested Tehran could negotiate a deal with the United States—curbing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and the reopening of the strait—thereby ending the war and preventing future confrontations.

At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Tehran to declare victory and pursue a diplomatic settlement after a rapid escalation of hostilities between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. military has not even started dismantling what remains of Iran’s infrastructure, a statement made in the wake of a strike that demolished the country’s largest bridge. In retaliation, Iran’s armed forces cautioned that they would destroy U.S. regional assets if the United States and Israel intensify their attacks, signaling a willingness to broaden the conflict. Tehran’s latest wave of strikes hit a desalination plant in Kuwait and the Habshan gas facility in the United Arab Emirates, extending the battlefield across the Gulf region. Analysts interpret Zarif’s call for a victory proclamation as a strategic pivot toward seeking a negotiated deal, even as military rhetoric on both sides remains fierce.