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The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the US‑Israel war on Iran could ignite a new wave of global inflation, jeopardising the outlook for world growth even if the current cease‑fire endures. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced on Thursday that the Fund will lower its growth projection for the global economy at next week’s IMF‑World Bank Spring Meetings, stating that the conflict has turned a potential upgrade into a growth downgrade. Earlier this year the IMF had lifted its forecast to 3.3 % growth for the 191‑member economies. That optimism evaporated after the war erupted on 28 February, driving up oil and natural‑gas prices, damaging energy infrastructure such as refineries and tanker terminals, and disrupting fertilizer shipments essential for global agriculture. Georgieva warned that the conflict is eroding business and consumer confidence and urged member nations to “get your house in order” as heightened defence spending adds further strain to the world economy. She also expressed confidence that the IMF will secure U.S. congressional approval this year for a 50 % increase in quota‑based lending resources, unlocking more of its roughly $1 trillion lending capacity. The United States, the Fund’s largest shareholder, would thereby provide crucial financial reassurance amid uncertain future developments. In a newly released report, the IMF estimated that countries directly involved in armed conflict typically see output fall by about 3 % at the outset, accumulating to roughly 7 % losses over five years. However, the study noted that economies like the United States may avoid severe economic damage because the fighting does not physically affect their own territory. Central banks are also on alert. Georgieva emphasized that “the central bank cannot afford to let inflation spiral out of control,” a statement that precedes the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two‑day policy meeting scheduled for 28–29 April, where interest‑rate decisions will be made amid political pressure from President Trump to lower rates. Other monetary authorities, including the Bank of Mexico, warned that the Middle‑East turmoil could push inflation higher in Latin America’s second‑largest economy, underscoring the broader spill‑over risks of the conflict.

A group of US Democrats has strongly condemned Israel's intensifying attacks on Lebanon, warning that the escalation threatens to undermine the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran. The attacks, which have killed at least 303 people in Lebanon, have sparked concerns that the ceasefire may not hold if Israel continues its aggression.Congress members, including centrist and progressive Democrats, have urged President Donald Trump to take action to rein in his ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and ensure that the ceasefire applies to Lebanon. They argue that Netanyahu's actions are not aligned with US interests and risk drawing America into a broader regional war.Pakistan, which mediated the ceasefire, had explicitly stated that the truce applies to Lebanon. However, Israel and the US have contradicted this account, with Trump and his aides denying that Lebanon is part of the deal. This has sparked concerns about the viability of the ceasefire and the potential for further conflict in the region.Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have slammed the US response, saying that such a misunderstanding during high-stakes negotiations would be a sign of incompetence. They are calling on Trump to pressure Israel to stop its attacks on Lebanon and ensure that the ceasefire holds.

The United Kingdom's Defence Minister, John Healey, announced that British forces had successfully tracked and deterred three Russian submarines in a covert operation within UK waters in the High North maritime region. This area is strategically important due to its proximity to key shipping routes and crucial undersea cables.Healey revealed that the month-long operation, which involved British warships and military aircraft, did not find evidence of Russian vessels damaging undersea infrastructure. However, the decision to publicly disclose the operation was made to 'call out' Russian activity and send a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin.“We see you, we see your activity over our cables and pipelines. And you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated, and will have serious consequences,” Healey stated. The British Defence Ministry identified the submarines as an Akula-class Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine and two specialist submarines from Russia's Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research (GUGI), which defence experts consider one of Moscow's most secret facilities.The Russian embassy in London rejected the British government's claims that its submarines posed a threat to undersea cables. According to Healey, the Russian attack submarine was likely a decoy to distract from the two specialist vessels designed to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime and sabotage it in conflict. The operation highlights growing concerns about threats to undersea cables, which connect about 99 percent of global internet traffic, with the UK having 60 cables near its waters.

Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has declared a 'final victory' in the war against Israel and the United States, despite a fragile ceasefire being threatened by Israel's continued offensive on Lebanon.Marking 40 days since his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli attack, Khamenei stated that Iran had 'astonished the world' during the course of the war. He emphasized that Tehran is not seeking war but is fighting for its legitimate rights.Khamenei warned that Iran will not leave 'criminal aggressors' unpunished and will demand compensation for damages and the blood of martyrs and the wounded. He also mentioned that Iran will move towards a 'new phase' regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blockaded since the war began.The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, allowing for negotiations to take place. However, Israeli air strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday killed over 300 people, threatening the truce amid disagreements on whether Beirut was part of the agreement.Khamenei stated that Iran is ready to respond if attacks resume, saying 'our hands are on the trigger'. Despite this, he emphasized that Iran will not renounce its legitimate rights under any circumstances, considering the entire resistance front as a whole.Delegations from Iran and the US are expected in Pakistan on Saturday to hold talks on ending the war.

Hours after the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and injuring thousands. The attacks have been widely condemned, with many questioning whether Israel's actions were intended to undermine the ceasefire.The bone of contention lies in whether or not Israel's strikes on Lebanon were included in the ceasefire agreement. Pakistan, which brokered the deal, said they were, while Israel claimed they were not.The US has sided with Israel, with President Donald Trump calling the violence in Lebanon 'a separate skirmish'. However, this stance has been met with criticism from many, including Iran, which has reimposed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks.Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced intense political pressure since the US and Iran signed the ceasefire, which had little or no active involvement from Israel. Netanyahu's war aims have not been achieved, angering those who supported the war.Under the terms of the truce, a 10-point peace plan put forward by Iran has been accepted as a starting point for negotiations. However, Israel's attacks on Lebanon have raised concerns about the viability of the ceasefire and the potential for further escalation in the region.Some analysts have accused Israel of trying to prolong the broader war against Iran and collapse any ceasefire prospects. 'Israeli officials will no doubt claim that this was a super sophisticated operation against necessary security targets', but others see it as an attempt to 'act as provocateurs-in-chief'.The attacks have also sparked criticism within Israel, with opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Yair Golan condemning Netanyahu's actions and accusing him of lying about the war aims and outcomes.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become the focal point of the Israel‑U.S. war on Iran that began in February. In peacetime the narrow waterway handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments without any tolls, but the conflict has turned it into a contested zone. After a series of Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retaliated by targeting merchant vessels it deemed hostile, effectively shutting the passage and triggering one of the most severe energy‑distribution crises in recent memory. While a two‑week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared on Tuesday, Tehran has issued a set of official terms that would govern the strait moving forward. According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi, safe passage will be allowed in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and subject to technical limitations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has even published a new navigation map that pushes traffic farther north, away from the traditional route near Oman’s coast, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines. Central to Tehran’s 10‑point peace proposal is the idea of charging fees for strait usage. Iranian media report that the plan could levy up to $2 million per vessel—a sum to be shared with Oman—or a charge of $1 per barrel of oil shipped. The revenue would allegedly fund reconstruction of military and civilian infrastructure damaged by the U.S.–Israeli campaign. Oman has publicly rejected any toll scheme, with Transport Minister Said Al‑Maawali reminding that the country has already signed all relevant international maritime transport agreements that prohibit such fees. International law adds another layer of complexity. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) prohibits levying charges for mere passage through international straits, allowing fees only for services like navigation assistance or port use. Neither the United States nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS, but the principle remains a benchmark for maritime norms. Analysts suggest a possible workaround: charging for de‑mining and safety services rather than for passage itself, which could be permissible under existing legal frameworks. The proposal has sparked diplomatic pushback. At the United Nations Security Council, Bahrain led a resolution urging coordinated reopening of the strait, backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. The resolution passed with 11 of 15 votes, but was vetoed by Russia and China, who argued it unfairly targeted Iran and ignored the initial strikes. Beyond the region, the United States is unlikely to accept indefinite tolls. Former President Donald Trump, who announced the ceasefire, warned that U.S. forces would remain in the area and threatened to resume attacks if negotiations faltered. American troops are reportedly “hanging around” to assist with traffic buildup, though the extent of their operational control remains unclear. Maritime analyst C. Uday Bhaskar notes that only three to five ships have traversed the strait since the ceasefire began, underscoring the lingering uncertainty for global shippers. He adds that ship owners facing multi‑million‑dollar losses each day may ultimately acquiesce to Iran’s terms, at least temporarily. Should Iran implement a toll regime, the immediate impact would fall on Gulf oil‑producing nations, but the ripple effects could destabilize global energy markets, already strained by supply shocks. Major powers such as the United Kingdom have been coordinating with a coalition of 40 countries to explore alternative mechanisms for reopening the waterway without conceding to tolls. In sum, Iran’s proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz introduces a contentious new variable into an already volatile geopolitical landscape, pitting national security interests against established maritime law and the broader stability of world energy supplies.

Israeli settlers have made a record number of attempts to smuggle animal sacrifices into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during the Jewish Passover festival. A total of seven incidents were documented, the highest number since the Israeli occupation began in 1967.The attempts took place while the 144-dunum (36-acre) compound, along with the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, was sealed off for 40 consecutive days due to security concerns linked to the US-Israel war on Iran. Despite the restrictions, settlers successfully reached the borders of the Old City with their sacrifices on at least two occasions before being stopped.Experts argue that the incidents are part of a long-term strategy by far-right 'Temple Mount groups' to encroach on Al-Aqsa, with the aim of taking it over. The groups view the sacrificial rituals as highly symbolic, signifying a transition from waiting to actual field action.The Palestinian Authority has warned that the push for animal sacrifices represents the 'peak of weaponising religious rituals as a colonial tool' to Judaise the mosque. Suhail Khalilieh, a political analyst and expert on Jerusalem affairs, described the Israeli police's detention of settlers as a 'theatrical play' designed to absorb local and international anger while allowing gradual changes on the ground.The use of artificial intelligence-generated images has also been employed by settler groups to rally support and normalise the practice of animal sacrifices within Israeli society. Khalilieh warned that this poses a 'real strategic threat', as it shifts the idea from being a limited, fringe concept to a full popular demand.

Israel's wave of air attacks on Lebanon has resulted in a significant escalation of violence, with over 250 people killed and 1,165 wounded. The attacks, which occurred just hours after the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, have raised concerns about the fragility of the agreement.The Israeli military claimed it was targeting Hezbollah's military infrastructure, but Lebanese officials and aid groups reported that entire neighborhoods were devastated, with hospitals overwhelmed and emergency services struggling to cope. The United Nations described the casualty figures as 'appalling', with its human rights chief Volker Turk calling the destruction 'horrific'.The attacks have exposed major disagreements over the scope of the ceasefire, with the US and Israel claiming it excludes Lebanon, while Iran and Pakistan argue it includes the country. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government helped broker the deal, stated that the ceasefire deal included the halting of attacks on all fronts, specifically mentioning Lebanon.The continuation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon poses a significant threat to the prospects for the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Analysts warn that if Hezbollah continues to be targeted while attacks on Iran remain paused, Tehran could lose both its leverage and credibility within its network of resistance groups.International reaction has largely focused on condemning the scale of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon and calling for Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire. Several countries, including Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, described the attacks as a 'dangerous escalation' and urged the international community to act.

Djibouti, a one‑million‑strong nation perched on the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait, is set to hold its presidential election on April 10. All signs point to incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh securing a sixth term with little genuine opposition. The country’s strategic location—linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—makes it a linchpin for global trade and a magnet for foreign military installations. The United States, France, China, Italy and Japan all maintain bases there, earning Djibouti the reputation of hosting the highest concentration of overseas military sites. Officially, Djibouti recognizes French and Arabic, while Somali and Afar are widely spoken among the two main ethnic groups, which together comprise roughly 95% of the population. Islam is practiced by about 94% of residents, and the Djiboutian franc remains the national currency. According to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 243,471 citizens—about a quarter of the population—are registered to vote, up from roughly 215,000 in the 2021 poll. Historical turnout averages around 67%. IGAD’s eight‑nation bloc has dispatched 17 observers from Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda to monitor the process, with a post‑vote statement slated for April 12. Ismail Omar Guelleh, 78, leads the ruling People’s Rally for Progress. After parliament lifted the 75‑year age ceiling in November and abolished term limits back in 2010, Guelleh is now eligible for another term. Critics label his rule as authoritarian, yet they also acknowledge the relative stability he has maintained in a volatile region. Guelleh’s administration has turned Djibouti’s lack of natural resources into a revenue engine by signing infrastructure deals with China and leasing military facilities to Western powers. In 2017, Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh estimated that the bases generate roughly $125 million annually, with the United States contributing nearly half of that sum. The U.S. installation, Camp Lemonnier, remains the only permanent American base on the continent. The sole challenger, Mohamed Farah Samatar, runs under the Unified Democratic Centre after breaking away from the ruling party. His campaign slogan—“another Djibouti is possible”—has resonated only modestly, and observers such as Horn‑of‑Africa expert Sonia le Gouriellec describe the contest as a “token competition”. Human‑rights advocates echo this sentiment, calling the election a “masquerade” and a foregone conclusion. Key issues dominate the discourse. Democratic freedoms have eroded; opposition parties have boycotted elections since 2016, and Guelleh captured over 90% of the vote in 2021. The country ranks 168th out of 180 in the 2025 Reporters Without Borders press‑freedom index, and allegations of corruption and nepotism persist, including speculation that Guelleh’s stepson, Naguib Abdallah Kamil, is being groomed for succession. Economically, Djibouti’s reliance on Chinese financing is creating fiscal strain. By 2026 the nation owed China roughly $1.2 billion in loans, prompting the IMF to label its debt profile “in distress and unsustainable”. Massive infrastructure projects—most notably a railway to Ethiopia—have failed to curb poverty, with 73% of the youth unemployed. The country’s lifeline is its port system, which handles virtually all of Ethiopia’s maritime trade, amounting to about $2 billion in annual revenue. Ethiopia’s recent flirtation with a Somaliland port deal threatened Djibouti’s monopoly, though a Turkey‑mediated agreement in late 2024 redirected Ethiopia toward a “reliable and sustainable” sea corridor with Somalia. In sum, the upcoming election is less about a competitive political showdown and more about reaffirming a status quo that intertwines Djibouti’s geopolitical leverage, foreign‑military income, and mounting debt challenges.