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Robert Habeck, former German Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, has issued a stark warning about the dangers posed by authoritarian leaders driven by megalomania, drawing parallels between Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine and Donald Trump's actions in Iran.Habeck argues that both leaders are primarily concerned with their own greatness, making them unpredictable and disinterested in international law. This megalomania has led to massive military miscalculations, including underestimating the resolve of the countries they attacked to make sacrifices.The article highlights the impact on energy prices, with both conflicts threatening to disrupt global energy supplies. Habeck recalls the high oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which rose to $130 a barrel, and warns that a prolonged conflict in Iran could lead to an inflationary contagion beyond energy.Habeck emphasizes the need for Europe to develop its defence capabilities, including stockpiles of interceptor drones and new production capacity, to prepare for the scenario of a long war. He also stresses the importance of rapid electrification of industry, transport, and the heating and cooling sectors to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.The author concludes that Europe must act to prevent the worst outcome, rather than relying on hope or second-best outcomes. As he notes, hope is not a strategy, and the EU must use its resources wisely to protect its infrastructure and ensure energy security.

Epic Games, the developer of the popular video game Fortnite, has announced that it will be laying off more than 1,000 employees. This move comes despite the company's significant revenue, with Fortnite generating around $4 billion a year and Epic Games estimated to have made $6 billion in revenue in 2025.The layoffs were announced by CEO Tim Sweeney in a note posted online, where he attributed the decision to a downturn in Fortnite engagement that started in 2025, resulting in the company spending more than it's making. Sweeney also cited industry-wide challenges, including slower growth, weaker spending, and tougher cost economics.Epic Games has been facing significant costs, including expensive legal actions against Google and Apple. The company's decision to lay off staff has raised questions about the sustainability of the live service game model, which has been adopted by many major publishers.The video game industry has been experiencing a period of turmoil, with many publishers struggling to maintain growth and profitability. The layoffs at Epic Games are a stark reminder of the challenges facing the industry, and the need for companies to adapt to changing market conditions.Analysts have noted that most live service games have peaked, but major publishers are still investing heavily in this area. The layoffs at Epic Games may be a sign of a broader shift in the industry, as companies re-evaluate their strategies and priorities.

The UK government has taken a significant step in its ongoing efforts to counter Russia's attempts to evade Western sanctions. Armed forces have been authorized to board Russian oil tankers in British waters, a move aimed at disrupting Moscow's 'shadow fleet' of vessels.This fleet, comprising over 600 vessels targeted by sanctions from the EU, UK, and US, uses tactics such as false national flags and opaque ownership structures to export Russian crude oil while avoiding Western sanctions. The new rules apply specifically to vessels sanctioned by the UK.The Royal Navy has previously collaborated with allies to take action against these vessels. For instance, last week it helped track a sanctioned Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean, which was subsequently boarded by the French navy.The UK's move is part of a broader strategy to hamper Russia's economy and, consequently, its war efforts in Ukraine. Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that the goal is to 'starve Putin's war machine of the dirty profits that fund his barbaric campaign in Ukraine.'However, Russia has warned that direct action against shadow fleet vessels could lead to direct conflict. A senior Russian official, Nikolai Patrushev, suggested that Moscow could deploy its navy to protect Russian-linked vessels from potential European seizures.The UK's defense secretary, John Healey, previously suggested using 'military options' against sanctioned vessels, with any seized oil potentially being sold and the proceeds sent to Ukraine.Before any ship is boarded, its situation will be examined by law enforcement, military, and energy market specialists, with a recommendation made to ministers. Seizure could be followed by criminal proceedings against the owners, operators, and crew for breaches of UK sanctions legislation.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

The traditional cold war diplomacy of brinkmanship, characterized by carefully balanced standoffs and rules-based international order, has given way to a world in freefall. This shift is exemplified by the ever-widening conflict in the Gulf where strategic objectives remain as unclear as the potential endpoint of hostilities.Approaching a month since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the stated objectives of removing the country's nuclear threat and destroying its ballistic missile capability appear increasingly disconnected from the disproportionate impact on civilians and neighboring Gulf nations. Despite these consequences, the Iranian regime's willingness to escalate the conflict shows no signs of diminishing.The Guardian Weekly's coverage examines this critical juncture through multiple perspectives. Patrick Wintour recounts the pivotal week when global tensions reached a tipping point, while Richard Partington analyzes the long-term economic implications of a prolonged conflict, from oil price fluctuations to inflationary pressures and economic growth impacts. From South Lebanon, William Christou reports on healthcare professionals caught in the crossfire of Israeli airstrikes, highlighting the human cost of the escalating violence.Emma Graham-Harrison provides insight from Jerusalem, examining Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy of attempting to rehabilitate his image through what he frames as destruction of an 'axis of evil.' Meanwhile, Simon Tisdall poses a critical question: when US President Donald Trump eventually seeks to halt the conflict, will any parties be willing to heed his calls for de-escalation?Beyond the primary geopolitical focus, this week's Guardian Weekly edition explores several significant developments across different sectors. The UK political landscape features an examination of the upcoming local elections, where voter sentiment appears increasingly focused on rejecting established parties rather than actively supporting alternatives. The scientific section explores innovative approaches to addressing snoring disorders through CPAP machines, while the culture section features an in-depth interview with Dave Grohl discussing Foo Fighters, personal challenges, and grief following the loss of bandmate Taylor Hawkins.In sports, the publication celebrates the remarkable achievement of British athletes Keely Hodgkinson, Georgia Hunter Bell, and Molly Caudery, who each secured gold medals at the world indoor athletics championships in Poland, showcasing British excellence in track and field events.

Europe is bracing for a potential energy crisis, with fuel rationing possible as early as April if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil and gas supplies, remains closed. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan, issued this stark warning at a major oil industry conference in Texas, highlighting the escalating risks to global energy supplies.The crisis, now in its fourth week, has already led to energy rationing in Asian countries and significant price hikes for jet fuel, which has doubled in price since the start of the conflict. Sawan predicts that diesel and petrol will come under pressure next, particularly as the summer driving season begins in the US and Europe.Oil prices have fluctuated, dipping back to about $100 a barrel on Wednesday after reaching highs of around $114 earlier in the week. These developments have raised concerns about the potential for a prolonged global economic recession if oil prices continue to rise, with some predictions suggesting they could hit $150 a barrel.Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, warned of profound implications for the world economy if the conflict continues to drive up oil prices. He outlined two possible scenarios: one where the conflict resolves quickly, allowing oil prices to return to pre-crisis levels of about $70 a barrel, and another where prices remain high for years, potentially leading to a stark and steep recession.Germany's economy minister, Katherina Reiche, also spoke at the conference, cautioning that energy supply scarcity could occur in late April or May if the conflict continues. She criticized Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy and emphasized the need for greater imports of gas via super-chilled tankers from overseas.

The current situation highlights the urgent need for a long-term strategy to address energy costs. The CBI and EnergyUK have argued that a reset is necessary to cut energy costs for businesses, citing the thesis that high energy costs are holding back the UK economy. While the debate may be delayed by the current crisis, it is unlikely to go away, especially as other countries are adopting more strategic energy policies.

Israel has been accused of using white phosphorus in southern Lebanon, a move that has reignited concerns over the country's adherence to international laws of war. Human Rights Watch (HRW) researchers have verified and geolocated images showing airburst white phosphorus munitions exploding over residential areas in the southern Lebanese town of Yohmor.The use of white phosphorus, a chemical substance that ignites when exposed to oxygen and burns at up to 800C, is controversial when used over civilian areas due to its potential to ignite fires, cause serious burns, and emit toxic fumes. Military forces often use it as a smokescreen, but its use in populated areas raises significant ethical and legal questions.Over 800,000 Lebanese people have been displaced from the region following Israeli forces' orders to leave, and many more uses of white phosphorus may have gone undocumented. Researchers have documented nearly 250 uses of white phosphorus by Israeli forces between October 2023 and November 2024, with 39% of these uses occurring in residential areas.The environmental impact is also significant, with over 2,000 hectares of southern Lebanese countryside burned, including dense forests and agricultural lands. The use of white phosphorus can lead to long-term soil contamination, reducing microbial diversity and agricultural productivity.An Israeli military spokesperson has cautioned against making factual determinations based on visuals alone, while Israel's ambassador to the UN has stated that the country takes steps to minimize civilian casualties. However, allegations of war crimes and the use of prohibited weapons continue to mount, highlighting the need for further investigation and accountability.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with economies in Asia being hit particularly hard. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil and gas shipments, has led to a 90% collapse in traffic through its waters. This has resulted in energy prices surging, affecting countries such as India, Nepal, and the Philippines.India has redirected liquefied gas supplies to households, limiting them to the plastics industry, while Nepal has rationed gas and the Philippines has trimmed the government workweek to four days. Bangladesh has closed universities and rationed fuel, highlighting the widespread impact of the conflict.The US economy has shown relative resilience, with the S&P; 500 index losing only 5% since the start of the conflict. This is attributed to the country's abundance of domestic natural gas, which satisfies about 36% of its energy needs and insulates it from international price fluctuations.However, this has led to accusations that the US is recklessly spreading havoc globally while suffering relatively little harm itself. The tariffs imposed by the US have also had far-reaching consequences, with economists concluding that US consumers and businesses are paying the majority of the costs.The International Monetary Fund has revised its growth forecasts, noting that the US economy has emerged largely unscathed, while prospects for economic growth in other countries have weakened. The World Trade Organization has warned that persistently high energy prices will slow merchandise trade growth and have a lopsided impact on growth, with North America potentially seeing a boost, while Europe and Asia are likely to be negatively affected.The conflict has also disrupted the oil and gas economy, with countries like Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan facing a drop in remittances from their citizens working in Gulf countries. Furthermore, the environmental impact of the conflict has been significant, with interest in coal being reinvigorated in Asia as a result of the energy crisis.The US's actions have raised concerns about its reliability as a partner in maintaining international stability, with erstwhile allies forced to accept that Trump's America is now a source of global uncertainty. The US's belligerence is unlikely to end soon, with tens of millions of Americans motivated by contempt for the rest of the world and a desire to assert US dominance.