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The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has significantly impacted global oil supplies, causing prices to surge. Despite this, US President Donald Trump claims that the US is 'totally independent' of the Middle East and doesn't need their oil. However, experts argue that the oil market is highly interconnected, making it unlikely that the US can escape the effects of the crisis.The US is a major oil producer, having surpassed other countries due to the fracking boom. Yet, it still imports millions of barrels per day, with a significant portion coming from Gulf nations. This reliance on imports means that the US is not as insulated from global price trends as Trump suggests.Oil prices have risen by nearly half since the start of the war, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. This increase has had a ripple effect on the global economy, with US fuel prices breaching $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. The surge in fuel costs is likely to impact the US economy and may influence the midterm elections.Experts warn that the concept of 'energy independence' may be a 'smokescreen' and that low-income households will be disproportionately affected by higher fuel prices. While some sectors of the US economy, such as energy production, may benefit from the current situation, the overall impact on consumers is expected to be negative.The article also highlights the broader implications of the conflict, including disruptions to global fertilizer supplies and helium production. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining paralyzed, the effects of the crisis are likely to be prolonged, and experts are skeptical that fuel prices will quickly return to normal even if the conflict ends soon.

The US government has taken legal action against Illinois for attempting to regulate the rapidly growing online prediction market industry. The lawsuit, filed in Chicago federal court, claims that Illinois' efforts to shut down so-called designated contract markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are unlawful.Online prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of events, from Oscar winners to military conflicts. These platforms classify their offerings as 'event derivatives,' which fall under federal commodities law and are overseen by the CFTC. This classification allows them to operate in all 50 states for users 18 and older.Illinois introduced legislation earlier this year that would impose strict regulations on prediction markets, including an effective ban on sports-related trades, advertising restrictions, and age verification measures. The CFTC argues that this legislation intrudes on its exclusive authority to regulate national swaps markets.The lawsuit is the first by the CFTC to block state gaming regulators from policing operators of prediction markets. It cites cease-and-desist letters sent by the Illinois gaming board to companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging violations of Illinois gambling laws.The federal lawsuit names Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul as defendants. The case highlights the ongoing debate over the regulation of prediction markets, with some arguing they are essentially gambling operations and others seeing them as federally regulated financial exchanges.Congress is also considering federal measures to regulate prediction markets, including a bipartisan bill introduced by US senators that would ban federally regulated platforms from allowing wagers on sporting events.

The global oil market is being significantly influenced by online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, with energy traders using data from these platforms to inform their multimillion-dollar trades. Market experts have noted that Polymarket's datafeeds are being used to create algorithms that impact trading in the global Brent crude futures market. The growing reliance on Polymarket has raised concerns that anonymous account holders may be using insider knowledge to place bets, potentially influencing pricing in the global oil market. One energy trader noted that Polymarket had become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the US-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, stated that betting markets have a long history of strong prediction accuracy, and traders are increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, also confirmed the adoption of prediction markets as a trading tool, noting that any data with alpha is considered in modern markets. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets to help traders make informed decisions. However, not all commodity traders are convinced by Polymarket's track record in predicting market-moving events. One trading analyst noted that Polymarket has made bad calls during the crisis, and that hedge funds may be more interested in the platform than traditional traders.

Irish MEP Barry Andrews toured makeshift shelters in Beirut last month, where displaced families are living on dirty mattresses and blankets and suffering from infections. The conditions, he said, are worse than during Israel’s 2024 incursion, underscoring the human cost of Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.On returning to Dublin, Andrews became one of the first European lawmakers to urge the European Union to revive sanctions against Israel. He argued that the EU must also address state‑backed settler violence in the West Bank, attacks on health workers in Gaza, and Israel’s recent move to reinstate the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism.The EU’s leverage lies in its association agreement with Israel, a commerce and cooperation accord that underpins a €68 billion (€59 bn) trading relationship and includes cooperation on energy and scientific research. Former EU representative to the Palestinian territories, Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff, says the bloc should suspend this agreement, halt all military aid, and cease trade with illegal settlements, warning that inaction will further damage the EU’s reputation.Andrews described the EU’s reaction to the Iran‑Israel‑Lebanon war as “weak and pathetic,” adding that it effectively gives Israel a “permission slip for endless war crimes.” The European Commission condemned the Knesset’s death‑penalty vote as “very concerning” and a “clear step backwards,” while the Council of Europe called it a “legal anachronism” incompatible with modern human‑rights standards.Human‑rights figures note that in the past four weeks more than 1,240 people have been killed in Lebanon—including at least 124 children—and over 1.1 million have been displaced. In Gaza, the death toll has risen by 673 since the October ceasefire, bringing the total to 72,260 deaths.EU leaders have been divided on how to respond. Former Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed unprecedented sanctions last September, citing a “man‑made famine” in Gaza, but the proposal failed to secure a majority in the Council of Ministers, losing momentum after the U.S. announced a cease‑fire plan.Member states also differ: Ireland, Spain and Slovenia champion the Palestinian cause, whereas Germany, Austria and Hungary—led by Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—have resisted measures such as sanctions on West Bank settlers.Despite these divisions, a senior EU diplomat warned in mid‑March that the bloc may need to “increase pressure on Israel again,” citing the “highly problematic” situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Another diplomat highlighted the importance of engaging with Israeli civil society, noting an open letter from 600 Israeli security officials urging an end to the Gaza war.In a recent statement, a Commission spokesperson reiterated that diplomatic engagement with Israel continues, describing it as the standard approach when partners “do not see developments eye to eye.” Yet former EU envoy Kühn von Burgsdorff cautioned that the EU cannot appear as a “sidekick” to an “erratic, unreliable” U.S. president or a “warmongering, annexationist” Israeli prime minister, as such a stance would undermine Europe’s global standing.

Global financial markets experienced a significant shift on Wednesday as oil prices plummeted and stock markets rallied following comments from US President Donald Trump. He suggested that the conflict in Iran would be resolved within 'two to three weeks'.The international benchmark for oil, Brent crude, fell as low as $98.35 a barrel, marking a decline of over 15% from the previous day and its lowest level in a week. It later recovered slightly, trading down 2.5% at $101.Stock markets in Asia saw substantial gains, with Japan's Nikkei surging 5%, South Korea's Kospi jumping 8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 2%, and China's CSI 300 index up 1.7%. European markets also followed suit, with the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.8% and the Europe Stoxx 600 index rising 2.2%.Trump's comments on Tuesday sparked a relief rally in the US stock market, with the S&P; 500 rising 2.9%. He stated, 'Now we're finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we'll do the job. We want to knock out everything they've got.'Market analysts are cautiously optimistic, with Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, noting that markets are 'choosing to believe the optimism from the White House.' However, she also warned that energy disruptions could continue for months, impacting inflation and economic growth.The prospect of interest rate rises in the UK has diminished, with money markets pricing in about 41 basis points of increases to the UK bank rate by the end of 2026, down from 66 basis points anticipated on Tuesday.The price of gold rose to its highest level in almost two weeks, up 0.8% to more than $4,700 an ounce.

The UK hospitality sector is bracing for significant job cuts and business closures as cost increases from new business rates and higher wage bills come into effect. An industry-wide survey of 20,000 hospitality businesses found that 64% of firms plan to cut jobs, 42% intend to reduce trading hours, and one in seven will be forced to close.The increased costs are attributed to changes announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves at the November budget, including increases to the national living wage and national minimum wage, which are expected to result in an extra £1.4bn in costs for the sector. Additionally, changes to business rates will see the average hotel in England facing an increase of £28,900 more this year (up 30%), while the average restaurant can expect a 15% increase worth £1,800.The trade bodies, including UKHospitality and the British Beer and Pub Association, have warned that the conflict in the Middle East will accelerate the impact of rising wage and tax costs, with energy bills expected to rise steeply. The economic shock wave caused by the war in the Middle East has pushed economic confidence to an all-time low, according to new figures from the Institute of Directors (IoD).The IoD's Economic Confidence Index fell to its lowest ever score of -76 in March, with business directors citing labour bills, supply chain inflation, and energy as the biggest drivers of cost increases over the next 12 months. The thinktank estimates that UK companies invest the equivalent of 11.1% of GDP, well behind countries such as Japan at 18.2%, and European nations including France, at 12.7%, and Germany, at 12%.

The Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows that job openings dropped by 358,000 to 6.882 million in February, the smallest tally since 2020 and well below the forecast of 6.918 million. February’s hiring figures also slipped, with 4.8 million workers hired—the lowest monthly total since March 2020. The quit rate fell to 1.9%, equating to roughly three million workers leaving their jobs, indicating growing reluctance to switch employers. Consumer confidence is eroding in tandem. A University of Michigan survey released in March recorded a 6% year‑over‑year decline and a 5.8% drop from the previous month, pushing sentiment to its weakest point since December. Economist Heather Boushey of the University of Pennsylvania linked the sentiment dip to President Donald Trump’s second‑term policies, noting that “people are getting super frustrated with Trump’s economy.” Senior fellow Michele Evermore of the National Academy of Social Insurance warned that the modest decline in quits “indicates that workers continue to have a pessimistic view of their chances on the open market,” and urged state governments to bolster unemployment systems as a counter‑cyclical buffer. Policy uncertainty is a key driver. Since his re‑election, Trump has pursued aggressive tariffs, some of which were recently blocked by the Supreme Court’s decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act cannot be used for that purpose, leaving the tariff regime in flux. Compounding the trade dispute, the U.S. involvement in the February 28 attack on Iran sparked a regional war. Iran’s retaliation—shutting the Strait of Hormuz—has tightened global oil supplies, pushing U.S. gasoline prices to $4.018 per gallon, up more than a dollar from the previous month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the economy faces a “zero‑employment‑growth equilibrium” with downside risks, while the central bank has so far kept interest rates steady and will announce its next policy decision in late April. Private, non‑farm payroll growth has also slowed, averaging just 18,000 jobs per month over the three months ending February, underscoring the tepid demand for new labor. Despite the labor market gloom, equity markets rallied during midday trading on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.9%, the Nasdaq climbing 3.4%, and the S&P; 500 gaining 2.3%.

Airport security lines across the United States are significantly shortening following President Donald Trump's emergency directive to pay Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers. This development comes after weeks of lengthy delays at security checkpoints nationwide. At major airports such as New York's John F. Kennedy (JFK) International Airport, wait times have dropped to under 30 minutes. Similar improvements have been observed at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport and Baltimore's Thurgood Marshall Airport. Despite this temporary relief, over 500 TSA officers have left the agency since the recent government shutdown, according to data shared by the TSA. This exodus highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the agency due to recurrent funding lapses. “The bigger issue is that this is the third time in six months that TSA has gone through a funding lapse,” noted Eric Chaffee, a professor at Case Western Reserve University School of Law. “Every time this happens, the agency loses experienced staff, and it becomes harder to attract new ones.” While TSA workers are set to receive their back pay, with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin stating that payments would begin as early as Monday, the sector still faces instability. On Friday, 10.59% of TSA agents called out on Saturday and 12.35% on Friday, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The ongoing partial US government shutdown, now in its 45th day, continues to impact negotiations in Congress. Despite House Republicans voting to fully fund DHS for 60 days, the bill was met with resistance from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who deemed it “dead on arrival.” In the financial markets, US airline stocks continue to decline, with United Airlines down 2.4%, Delta down 1.5%, American Airlines down 0.4%, and Southwest down 1.9% in midday trading.

The United States Department of Defense has strongly denied allegations that a broker for Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth attempted to make a large investment in weapons companies in the run-up to the war on Iran. The denial comes after a report by The Financial Times claimed that a wealth manager for Hegseth contacted BlackRock about making a multimillion-dollar investment in a defence-related fund.Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell demanded the immediate retraction of the report, stating that the allegations were 'entirely false and fabricated.' He emphasized that neither Secretary Hegseth nor any of his representatives approached BlackRock about any such investment.The proposed investment was reportedly in an exchange-traded fund whose holdings include Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. However, according to The Financial Times, the investment did not go ahead because the fund was not yet available for purchase at the time.The report has sparked scrutiny of well-timed trades in financial and prediction markets, fueling speculation that figures with insider knowledge may be profiting from US President Donald Trump's war plans.Despite the denial, the incident has raised concerns about the integrity of defence-related investments and the potential for insider trading.