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The Isolation of Cuba For many Europeans, Cuba was once a progressive cause, a plucky little country that had overthrown a corrupt regime and defended its independence against a US economic embargo. However, today Cubans are languishing in desperate poverty with little or no electricity, enduring a US blockade of fuel supplies ordered by Donald Trump. The US Blockade and Its Impact The US decision to indict Raúl Castro, Fidel's 94-year-old brother and successor, for murder shows how determined Washington is to eliminate the old guard. Factories and transportation are at a standstill for lack of power, and hospitals struggle to treat patients with scant fuel to keep emergency generators working. The Lack of Support from Europe Yet few beyond the hard-left fringes of European politics are protesting against the manifestly illegal strangulation of the Cuban economy and people. The world won't lift a finger to shield Cuba from Trump's deadly squeeze or to prevent regime change. Even indignation is in short supply. The Reasons Behind Europe's Abandonment This is partly because Cuba's traditional friends and allies – Russia, Venezuela, Mexico and Brazil – are either disabled, distracted or have bigger fish to fry with Washington. It is also because Cubans' plight is overwhelmingly due to their country's feckless rulers, who have done little to help their own people. The Future Outlook Whether Washington imposes a “deal” on Cuba's current leaders or tightens its noose in a bid to overthrow them, don’t expect Europe to do anything to stop the next episode in the “Donroe doctrine”. Europeans, too, have bigger fish to fry with Trump. They may have history with Cuba, but the US has geography and geopolitics on its side.

The Legal Setback for Voting Rights AdvocatesThe legal battle over President Donald Trump’s attempt to tighten mail-in voting rules has taken a significant turn. Judge Carl Nichols of the District of Columbia has rejected a request by Democrats and civil rights groups to immediately block the executive order. This decision means the administration can continue moving forward with the implementation of the measure, which seeks to restrict how ballots are distributed.Judge Nichols' Rationale for Denying Immediate ReliefThe core of the ruling lies in the judge's assessment of timing. Nichols, a Trump appointee, ruled that the challengers' case was premature because the executive order has not yet been enforced. He acknowledged that the administration is still developing the specific rules and procedures required to carry out the directive.The Executive Order's Core Requirements: The measure calls on the Department of Homeland Security to compile lists of confirmed US citizens and requires the United States Postal Service (USPS) to send mail-in ballots only to voters on state-specific absentee lists.The Legal Argument: The plaintiffs argued that the order likely violates the US Constitution, which reserves the authority to set election rules for states and Congress, not the President.The Judge's View: Nichols concluded that the potential harms were too speculative at this stage, noting that Plaintiffs could renew their motions if and when the administration enforces the final rules.The Political Stakes in the 2026 MidtermsThe timing of this ruling carries significant weight for the upcoming political landscape. The ruling comes as Trump’s Republican Party faces a tight battle to maintain control of both chambers of Congress in the November 2026 midterm elections. By allowing the order to proceed without an immediate injunction, the court has effectively kept the issue of election integrity and mail-in voting at the forefront of the political discourse.The Constitutional Clash Over Election AdministrationThis ruling highlights a deepening constitutional conflict regarding the separation of powers in election administration. Voting rights groups have warned that relying on federal citizenship databases from the DHS and Social Security Administration could lead to the erroneous exclusion of legally registered voters due to outdated or inaccurate data. Furthermore, the lawsuit raised concerns that placing the responsibility for ballot distribution on the USPS—which does not directly administer elections—could create confusion and disrupt the voting process.The Road Ahead: Future Legal Battles and Potential InjunctionsWhile Judge Nichols has denied the immediate block, the legal fight is far from over. The ruling opens the door for future litigation once the administration enforces the order. US District Judge Indira Talwani in Boston is already scheduled to hear a similar case filed by a coalition of Democratic-led states on June 2. Additionally, the administration is appealing previous rulings that blocked other executive orders on citizenship requirements and ballot deadlines. Analysts predict that as the administration moves to implement these specific rules, the courts will likely face renewed pressure to intervene.

The India-US Critical Minerals Framework India and the United States have signed a framework agreement to secure supplies of critical minerals and rare earths, including their mining and processing, according to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the US embassy in India. What are Critical Minerals and Why are They Significant? Critical minerals are nonfuel minerals used to manufacture batteries, clocks, wiring, military hardware, semiconductors, and other technological products. The US describes them as “essential to the economic or national security of the US” and having “a supply chain vulnerable to disruption”. The Data Analysis: Critical Minerals Stockpile India has 13.15 million tonnes of monazite, a phosphate mineral that contains rare earth oxides, one of the main natural sources of rare earths. The Indian government estimated that the country’s monazite contains 7.23 million tonnes of rare earth oxides (REOs). By comparison, a US Geological Survey report estimated that China has an estimated 44 million tonnes of REOs in its reserves, almost half of the world’s known reserves. The Impact Analysis: Reducing Reliance on China The US and other countries rely heavily on China for these minerals, and Washington, especially under President Donald Trump, has pushed to diversify US sourcing of these minerals to reduce reliance on China. The deal matters for India because its ambitions for critical minerals development require financing, and secure offtake. The Prediction: Future Cooperation and Investment The Quad countries have also agreed to share information on good practices and technical approaches for permitting, licensing, and other regulatory processes. They also agreed to cooperate on recycling and recovery of critical minerals, including during processing, to strengthen supply chains and promote the recycling of critical minerals among Quad partners and “like‑minded” countries.

The Plan for World Cup Glory As co-hosts, Canada enter the World Cup with high expectations, despite never winning a match at a previous tournament. Since a Concacaf Nations League semi-final defeat to Mexico in March 2025 the team have lost one of 15 matches at the time of writing, a run that has included some excellent opponents such as Colombia, Ecuador, Ukraine and the USA, whom they have defeated twice in the past two years, including their first win on US soil in 57 years. The coach, Jesse Marsch, has maintained a consistent 4-4-2 with the emphasis on pressing from the front and pace in wide positions. "Some teams press to win the ball back, we press to punish and think about scoring immediately when we recover the ball," said Marsch, who is American, but has captured the hearts of many Canadians since he took the job in May 2024 and guided the team to the semi-finals of the Copa América. Canada's World Cup Schedule 12 June v Bosnia and Herzegovina, Toronto (3pm local, 8pm BST) 18 June v Qatar, Vancouver (3pm local, 11pm BST) 24 June v Switzerland, Vancouver (noon local, 8pm BST) Success at that tournament, and subsequently in friendlies, is based on a defensive structure Marsch worked on immediately when taking the job and playing against the Netherlands and France in his first two matches in charge. Nine clean sheets in 13 matches before the pre-tournament friendlies is even more impressive considering Moïse Bombito, their star centre-back from Nice, and Bayern Munich's Alphonso Davies did not play in any of those matches because of injury. The Coach's Vision Jesse Marsch's first venture into international management has been a successful one, but not one he found easy to adjust to. "From the moment I worked with this group of players in the first camp, I knew I was going to fall in love with these guys," he says. "They are a unique group of really good people, who are very talented, and when I said goodbye to them it was different from what I was used to as a head coach in the club game." Marsch has enjoyed those gaps in his schedule, using time to visit Canadian players across the world and spending a lot of time in the country at the provincial level to help bring a more united approach to the way the game is developed and governed. Star Player's Return Questioned The captain, Alphonso Davies, has not played for Canada since tearing his ACL against USA in the Nations League third-place match last March. Whether to play him at left-back or on the wing has been one of the biggest questions for years, but under Marsch the Bayern Munich man has predominantly been used at the back and has been excellent. However, another injury setback, against Paris St-Germain in the Champions League semi-final second leg – his third in the past three months – has put his participation for the opening game against Bosnia and Herzegovina in doubt. He has started 12 of 29 internationals in the Marsch-era at the time of writing. One to Watch Few players have received more work and attention from his national coach than the midfielder Ismaël Koné, who was dropped during the Copa América as he struggled to make an impact. Since then he has been excellent for Sassuolo in Serie A and has turned into a dynamic box-to-box midfielder for Marsch, learning valuable lessons defensively in Italy, where his discipline and tactical concentration has improved significantly. Expected to start next to the excellent Stephen Eustáquio in a key double-pivot tandem for Canada. Unsung Hero Norwich's Ali Ahmed has become a favourite of Marsch's because of his selfless work on the pitch. Ahmed is asked to lead the press on the left wing, often cutting inside to increase the midfield numbers and bring intensity and energy off the ball. One of the reasons Marsch has not deployed Davies further forward is because he views his team without the ball more than with it and in that vision the former Vancouver Whitecaps man is crucial. Probable Starting XI Canada's likely formation for the World Cup matches will be based on the 4-4-2 system that Marsch has consistently employed, with specific attention to defensive structure and pressing from the front. Fan Expectations Canada is ready to host the world, but the attention is more on this team than other games happening in the country. Being the only side to start on the east coast and move directly to the west coast allows fans in Toronto and Vancouver to watch their team in the group stages. The supporters group The Voyageurs will lead the noise with their flags and chants of "Ooh, Ahh Canada". Canada is known for its cosmopolitan population and cultural diversity, with people from all over the world, and should benefit from playing three group opponents with relatively diverse fan bases.

The Rise of Recursive Self-Improvement in AIThe word "recursion" is the latest buzzword in AI circles. Two separate startups have taken on the name, and many more have started referencing recursive self-improvement (RSI) in their roadmaps. Like AGI before it, RSI has become a three-letter byword for a cataclysmic AI takeoff – even if there's still a little disagreement about what it exactly means.In basic terms, RSI refers to an AI system that can continuously upgrade itself. Once AI systems can manage the upgrade cycle better than humans, the process can become a closed loop, limited only by the compute power they can access, and humans are no longer necessary or even helpful.Scary or not, that's a vision that a lot of AI labs are eager to chase.Key Players Pursuing Recursive SystemsEarlier this month, well-known AI researcher Richard Socher launched the aptly named Recursive Superintelligence with RSI as an explicit goal. "Our main focus is to build truly recursive, self-improving superintelligence at scale," Socher told TechCrunch at launch, "which means that the entire process of ideation, implementation, and validation of research ideas would be automatic."A number of other prominent researchers are already chasing that same goal, hoping for a breakthrough that will make recursive self-improvement possible.One of the most prominent is Andrej Karpathy, a legendary figure from Tesla and OpenAI, who is using agent swarms to train LLMs on simple tasks for a project he calls Auto-Research. Karpathy has been unusually open about the project, tweeting about milestones regularly and making the building blocks available through a public GitHub repo. So far, the work has mostly been confined to making minor improvements on a GPT-2 scale model — as Karpathy noted in March, "It's not novel, ground-breaking 'research' (yet)" — but it's been enough to convince lots of other researchers to follow the RSI dream. And with Karpathy now working on pre-training at Anthropic, he will have plenty of opportunity to apply the idea at a larger scale.Adaption — founded by Cohere and Google alum Sara Hooker — recently launched a similar tool called AutoScientist in an effort to automate frontier training. Like Karpathy's auto-researchers, the system trains agents to make incremental improvements — but for Adaption, the goal is to make it easier to train a full-scale frontier model. If those same researchers start to push the frontier forward, the system could quickly spiral into something very much like RSI.Disarray founder Doris Xin drew more specific RSI interest when her self-trained machine learning agent took home 28 medals in a recent Kaggle competition, beating out many human-trained agents. As she sees it, the major challenge is reliability."I would argue, given infinite compute and infinite time horizon, we are already there," Xin told me. "I want to make an argument that this is not a creative endeavor, really. It's just a lot of meat-and-potatoes engineering."The Current State of Self-Improving AIThere's also plenty of evidence that the AI industry isn't very close to recursive systems in any meaningful way — and is still grappling with talking to a wary public about its progress. So Google CEO Sundar Pichai basically admitted in a recent podcast interview."It's a continuum, and we are all definitely making progress," Pichai said. "But in the way people describe RSI, that would represent a next level of acceleration and would have a lot of implications, but we aren't quite there yet."But the continuum includes an awful lot of self-improving AI systems.In January, one of Anthropic's lead programmers for Claude Code estimated that "close to 100%" of his team's code was written by the tool — a frank admission that Claude Code was literally writing itself.Just because engineers are using an AI tool doesn't mean the tool can replace them — but Anthropic seems to be getting close to replacing engineers too. In a recent survey tied to the Mythos preview, five out of 18 Anthropic engineers believed that, with harness improvements, this version of Mythos could soon substitute for an L4 engineer — a midlevel programmer who can take on involved projects without supervision.Still, there were some of the same weaknesses you might expect."Some of Claude's major reported weaknesses compared to an L4 include: self-managing week-long ambiguous tasks, understanding org priorities, taste, verification, instruction-following, and epistemics," the report reads.In other words, its weaknesses are everything involved with self-direction, which is the cornerstone for RSI. But sure, for everything else, Claude is ready to step right in.Expert Perspectives on RSI TimelinesJust like the AGI term before it, the AI industry also can't tell us how far away it is from showcasing a meaningful recursive system. When Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology assembled a group of experts to study RSI last year, the group found a major split in assessments — some expecting an imminent "superintelligence" style explosion while others expected slower progress and an eventual plateau. But all agreed that recursion made the future especially difficult to predict.Helen Toner, director of CSET and a former board member at OpenAI, told TechCrunch that simply using AI tools to do AI research isn't enough to qualify as RSI. "They're just using AI for as much as they can," Toner told TechCrunch. "And I think that is different from the classic definition of RSI, which is really that there are no humans needed."Toner pointed to a recent post by METR's Ajeya Cotra, which distinguishes different milestones on the path to the AI research takeover. One step, which Cotra calls "adequacy," would come when the system can still perform research after all humans are removed — even if the resulting research isn't as valuable or efficient. "Parity" comes when an AI-only system is as good at research as a human-only system. "Supremacy," the final stage, comes when an AI-only system outperforms a collaborative system between humans and AI.Ultimately, Cotra concludes that AI is very close to the adequacy threshold of being able to produce some work on its own — similar to the incremental changes made by Karpathy's Auto-Research system. "I wouldn't be totally shocked if you told me this milestone had already passed, and I expect it to happen in the next couple years," Cotra wrote.She was less clear on when parity will come, but once it does, she thinks it would "massively accelerate the pace of AI progress, leading to AI research supremacy within another year."The Challenges Ahead for Recursive AIWith so much of AI built on scaling laws, there's a strong tendency to think RSI will follow the same curve. Toner thinks that many of those pursuing AI research and development via RSI "think of it as a pretty smooth ladder, where you can just keep scaling up."But even if AI researchers are able to make incremental improvements like Karpathy's auto-researchers, there will be larger challenges in handing off the whole process of research. Toner put it in terms of the history of computing, which has seen human beings handing off more and more of the process while still directing things from the top."We went from machine languages to assembly language and compiled languages; you're getting further and further from the guts of the computer," Toner said. "But the human is still, in some intuitive sense, running the show."Moving beyond that paradigm will take significant challenges, both in engineering and alignment. But even with the massive investments happening, there's no infinite compute available — and the basic trade-off between human labor and machine intelligence will be hard to overcome.The Future of Recursive Self-ImprovementAs for a total recursive AI system of apocalyptic visions? The only thing researchers essentially agree on is that, like AGI, it's not here yet.

The Lead Enterprise organizations are not rejecting AI. They are rejecting operational instability. This is the shift many founders still misunderstand — and it is becoming one of the defining realities separating enterprise AI companies that scale from the ones that stall after early momentum. The Event Details At TechCrunch Disrupt 2026, taking place October 13–15 at Moscone West in San Francisco, Arsalan Tavakoli-Shiraji, co-founder and SVP of field engineering at Databricks, will unpack that shift during his AI Stage session, “The Enterprise Isn’t Broken. Your Assumptions About It Are.” The Data Analysis The enterprise AI market is full of successful pilots that never became real deployments. Not because the technology failed. But because the organization could not absorb the operational consequences of adopting it. The Impact Analysis Now the reality founders need to face is that startup AI deals rarely die because the model underperformed. They die because the enterprise lost confidence in what the deployment would require. The AI startups gaining traction inside large organizations increasingly share one thing in common: They reduce uncertainty. The Prediction The startups that succeed in enterprise AI over the next several years may not necessarily be the ones with the most advanced models. They may be the ones that best understand how enterprises actually absorb change. That is the kind of operational pressure that Tavakoli-Shiraji and other speakers on the AI Stage at Disrupt will explore.

The Tactical Chess Match of Champions League FinalIt would be easy to look at Saturday's Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal and see it as a battle of attack versus defence, of beauty against pragmatism, of French elan against English doughtiness, as some sort of tussle for the soul of football. But it would not entirely be true. And where, after all, was the honour at Agincourt? In the vainglorious charges of the dashing French cavalry or the stoic defiance of the British archers arrayed, naked from the waist down, behind their defensive stakes?The final promises to be a fascinating tactical contest between two teams with contrasting approaches but complementary strengths. PSG's devastating wings, featuring players like Desiré Doué and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, will test Arsenal's defensive resolve, while Arsenal's set-piece prowess could provide their route to goal.PSG's Dominant Possession vs Arsenal's Defensive ResilienceThe statistical comparison between the two teams reveals contrasting strengths. In the Champions League this season, Paris Saint-Germain have averaged 63.4% possession, higher than anybody apart from Barcelona; Arsenal's figure is 52.6%, the 11th-highest of the 36 sides who made the league stage. PSG's pass completion has been 89.3% to Arsenal's 85.7% (third-highest to 14th-highest). PSG have scored 44 goals to Arsenal's 29. But on the flip side, Arsenal have conceded six goals to PSG's 22 and won 13.4 aerial duels per game to PSG's 9.4 (sixth-highest to 29th-highest).These figures suggest that PSG will dominate possession, while Arsenal will likely sit deep and look to counter-attack. However, that was not how either leg of the semi-final between the teams last season played out: PSG shaded possession at the Emirates and Arsenal at the Parc des Princes as they chased the game.The Full-Back Dilemma for ArsenalThe biggest danger to Arsenal is probably a counterattack. Most opponents sit deep against PSG, especially in Ligue 1, but the evidence of PSG's wins over Chelsea, Liverpool and Bayern Munich is that they are lethal in transition. Arsenal cannot let Desiré Doué or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia get a run on whoever they have at full-back. Both are rapid, supreme dribblers and terrifyingly direct.Full-back is an issue for Arsenal, especially on the right. Ben White is out with a knee injury and Jurriën Timber is doubtful with a groin problem sustained against Everton in mid-March. Martín Zubimendi started at right-back against Crystal Palace but it would seem more likely that Cristhian Mosquera operates there if Timber has not recovered, if only because he is a more natural defender.Riccardo Calafiori has seemed Mikel Arteta's preferred option on the left. His role will be twofold: to stop Doué and to invert into midfield, particularly out of possession, to try to prevent the counter. It may be that Myles Lewis-Skelly is used ahead of Zubimendi alongside Rice, in part because he is familiar with playing at left-back and so could help double up on Doué, or would be comfortable covering for Calafiori were he caught upfield.Midfield Strategies to Counter PSG's WingsAlthough PSG have scored more goals from non-penalty set plays than Arsenal in the Champions League this season (eight to five), it probably is reasonable to assume that corners and free-kicks offer Arsenal's best chance of a goal. But to counter PSG's midfield dominance, Arsenal may need to embrace a more aggressive approach.The first leg of PSG's semi-final against Bayern was remarkably open, almost basketball-like in its end-to-end attacking. But that should not necessarily be regarded as characteristic. PSG can at times seem a little sloppy, too reliant on their attacking prowess, but their performance away to Bayern, when Fabián Ruiz returned, showed how effective PSG's midfield can be. And that means either that Arsenal have to sit deep and accept PSG will dominate the ball or that they need to ensure their midfield has a destructive edge.Lessons from Previous EncountersChelsea's success against PSG in the Club World Cup final perhaps offers, if not a template, then at least inspiration for how Arsenal can hurt the defending European Champions. Enzo Maresca's approach was asymmetric, using Cole Palmer almost as an inside-right, haunting the channel between Nuno Mendes and the left-sided centre-back while getting in behind the left-back wherever possible.On the left, Marc Cucurella regularly tucked into midfield, just as Calafiori surely will, with Pedro Neto tracking back almost as a wing-back to check Achraf Hakimi's thrusts in support of Doué. If Arteta sees things similarly, that is probably more of a job for Leandro Trossard than Eberechi Eze, who may end up on the bench if Arteta, as he surely must, prefers 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1.Keys to Victory in Saturday's FinalThere is an irony in this. The stereotype of Arsenal this season has been of a defensive side reliant on set plays, but that is not entirely accurate; rather they are a side whose defensive qualities have been highlighted because of deficiencies of creativity and attacking quality. But to beat PSG, it may be that they have to embrace the narrative and be the side critics say they are.Arsenal's right-back situation remains critical. White links better with Bukayo Saka than any of Arsenal's other full-backs, and Timber is as tactically astute as any player in the squad. Unless Timber is fit, the right-back issue is likely to diminish them from a defensive and an attacking point of view.The final will come down to which team can impose their tactical approach most effectively. Can Arsenal's defense contain PSG's devastating wings, or will PSG's midfield dominance prove too much for Arsenal to handle? The answer will determine who lifts the Champions League trophy on Saturday.

The LeadUnited States President Donald Trump has threatened longtime ally Oman with military force if it gets involved in the dispute over shipping access to the Strait of Hormuz, as Washington's war on Iran once again risks engulfing the Middle East. Trump's threat to "blow up" Oman came as Muscat reportedly held talks with Iran about overseeing passage through the strategic waterway that handles more than 20 percent of the world's global oil traffic.Trump's Unprecedented Threat Against a Key Ally"Nobody is going to control it," Trump said of the strait during a cabinet meeting in Washington. "It's international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up." This direct threat against a country with which Washington has had relations for more than 200 years has sent shockwaves across the region and drawn international criticism.While Hormuz is an international strait, most of it is located solely in Iranian and Omani territorial waters – not international waters – with parts of its outlying areas reaching United Arab Emirates (UAE) territorial waters. This geographical reality complicates Trump's assertion that the waterway is purely international.The Strategic Importance of the Strait of HormuzAs the only route for Gulf oil producers to ship exports to the open ocean, the strait has served as a free international maritime route for decades. Following the US-Israeli joint attacks on Iran on February 28, however, Tehran closed the waterway and began to assert sovereignty over it, including charging tolls of as much as $2m per ship at times.Under international maritime law, countries are not permitted to charge tolls to shipping passing through natural straits such as Hormuz, even where they are not in international waters. Countries can, however, provide services to shippers, such as insurance, maintenance and docking assistance.Regional Implications of Trump's ThreatShortly before Trump's comment, Iran's state television reported that Iran and the United States were close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) under which Tehran and Muscat would jointly control the strait. The proposal designates payments for passing vessels, framed as "fees for services" rather than "tolls."While the Trump administration has called the claims of such an MoU "a complete fabrication," analysts say his threat suggests that an understanding between Iran and Oman is precisely what the US president is trying to avoid."What Washington wants to prevent is the normalisation of Iranian control over Hormuz, dressed in administrative and legal clothing and given Arab cover by a US ally," Muhanad Seloom, non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.International Reaction and Legal ConcernsCritics called the threat reckless. Raed Jarrar, the advocacy director at the US-based rights group DAWN, likened the US president's comments to those of a "mafia boss.""The UN Charter prohibits the threat of force against any state, and that prohibition binds the United States exactly as it binds everyone else," Jarrar told Al Jazeera. "Threatening to 'blow up' an Arab country because its waters happen to sit along an oil route Washington wants reopened is the same lawless logic that produced this war in February."Samir Puri, a visiting lecturer in war studies at King's College in London, said Trump's threat to Oman was "really surprising" and warned that it would "send shockwaves across the region."Oman's Diplomatic Role in the US-Iran ConflictOman has played a unique role in the region as a mediator between the US and Iran. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi was a key mediator in US-Iran nuclear talks before the war on Iran began. Just before the US-Israeli joint attack on Tehran in February, Albusaidi had been meeting US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, to facilitate negotiations about the future of Tehran's nuclear programme.Unlike other US allies in the Gulf, such as Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, Oman does not host US forces. It was nevertheless dragged into the conflict when Iran launched attacks on US military assets and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region in the early days of the war.Future Outlook for the RegionSeloom, from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said Oman is "one Gulf state that is simultaneously a US security partner and Iran's most trusted Arab interlocutor.""In peacetime, that ambiguity is an asset. In wartime, it becomes a liability, which is precisely the inversion now playing out," he told Al Jazeera.The analyst argued that joint Iran-Oman control over Hormuz was "more posture than probability." "Oman's real interest is not co-owning Iran's blockade; it is brokering the strait's reopening," he said.Still, according to Seloom, the prospect of Iran and Oman jointly shaping the future of the Strait of Hormuz alarms the US president for three reasons: "It would turn Iran's grip on the chokepoint into a permanent post-war fact rather than a temporary act of war; it would set a precedent that littoral states can metre and monetise an international waterway, eroding the freedom-of-navigation principle the United States underwrites worldwide; and it would hand Tehran a strategic win that outlasts any ceasefire."

The Proposed Suspension of Carbon Tax Ministers are in discussions about suspending a carbon tax on fertilisers, due to come into effect early next year, in an effort to curb food inflation. The move would be part of a package of measures, including the suspension of import tariffs on a range of foods including bread, biscuits and bananas. Impact on Farmers and Food Inflation Government sources said they were looking at suspending tariffs on a range of fertilisers in order to discourage farmers from leaving fields fallow. Farmers have been considering leaving their fields fallow because rising costs mean they risk selling their 2027 crop at a loss. This would increase food inflation, which is already expected to rise sharply as the conflict in Iran raises fuel and fertiliser prices. Fertiliser Costs and Global Supply Chain Fertiliser costs have soared since the beginning of the Iran conflict, during which the strait of Hormuz has been closed. About 35% of the world’s fertiliser passes through the waterway and, since the conflict broke out in late January, about 1m tonnes of fertiliser have been stranded in the Gulf. Fertiliser producers said they expected the new tariffs, which were being put in place to match an existing EU scheme, could add £100 per tonne to costs. The Future Outlook Ministers are also cutting fuel taxes for farmers. The rate for red diesel and rebated biodiesel has been cut by more than a third, which the Treasury said made it the lowest in more than two decades. According to analysis from the Central Association for Agricultural Valuers, a 500-acre wheat farm could make a loss of £70,000 in 2027 because of higher costs caused by the Iran war. With farmers making decisions about 2027 cropping now, the economic outlook means they could be making difficult decisions such as leaving fields fallow.